Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Rice molecular breeding laboratories in the genomics era: Current status and future considerations

Using DNA markers in plant breeding with marker-assisted selection (MAS) could greatly improve the precision and efficiency of selection, leading to the accelerated development of new crop varieties. The numerous examples of MAS in rice have prompted many breeding institutes to establish molecular breeding labs. The last decade has produced an enormous amount of genomics research in rice, including the identification of thousands of QTLs for agronomically important traits, the generation of large amounts of gene expression data, and cloning and characterization of new genes, including the detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms. The pinnacle of genomics research has been the completion and annotation of genome sequences for indica and japonica rice. This information-coupled with the development of new genotyping methodologies and platforms, and the development of bioinformatics databases and software tools-provides even more exciting opportunities for rice molecular breeding in the 21st century. However, the great challenge for molecular breeders is to apply genomics data in actual breeding programs. Here, we review the current status of MAS in rice, current genomics projects and promising new genotyping methodologies, and evaluate the probable impact of genomics research. We also identify critical research areas to "bridge the application gap" between QTL identification and applied breeding that need to be addressed to realize the full potential of MAS, and propose ideas and guidelines for establishing rice molecular breeding labs in the postgenome sequence era to integrate molecular breeding within the context of overall rice breeding and research programs.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Possible impacts of the invasive plant Rubus niveus on the native vegetation of the Scalesia Forest in the Galapagos Islands

Originally from Asia, Rubus niveus has become one of the most widespread invasive plant species in the Galapagos Islands. It has invaded open vegetation, shrubland and forest alike. It forms dense thickets up to 4 m high, appearing to displace native vegetation, and threaten the integrity of several native communities. This study used correlation analysis between a R. niveus cover gradient and a number of biotic (vascular plant species richness, cover and vegetation structure) and abiotic (light and soil properties) parameters to help understand possible impacts in one of the last remaining fragments of the Scalesia forest in Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos. Higher cover of R. niveus was associated with significantly lower native species richness and cover, and a different forest structure. Results illustrated that 60% R. niveus cover could be considered a threshold for these impacts. We suggest that a maximum of 40% R. niveus cover could be a suitable management target.

The conservation status of the world’s reptiles

Effective and targeted conservation action requires detailed information about species, their distribution, systematics and ecology as well as the distribution of threat processes which affect them. Knowledge of reptilian diversity remains surprisingly disparate, and innovative means of gaining rapid insight into the status of reptiles are needed in order to highlight urgent conservation cases and inform environmental policy with appropriate biodiversity information in a timely manner. We present the first ever global analysis of extinction risk in reptiles, based on a random representative sample of 1500 species (16% of all currently known species). To our knowledge, our results provide the first analysis of the global conservation status and distribution patterns of reptiles and the threats affecting them, highlighting conservation priorities and knowledge gaps which need to be addressed urgently to ensure the continued survival of the world’s reptiles. Nearly one in five reptilian species are threatened with extinction, with another one in five species classed as Data Deficient. The proportion of threatened reptile species is highest in freshwater environments, tropical regions and on oceanic islands, while data deficiency was highest in tropical areas, such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia, and among fossorial reptiles. Our results emphasise the need for research attention to be focussed on tropical areas which are experiencing the most dramatic rates of habitat loss, on fossorial reptiles for which there is a chronic lack of data, and on certain taxa such as snakes for which extinction risk may currently be underestimated due to lack of population information. Conservation actions specifically need to mitigate the effects of human-induced habitat loss and harvesting, which are the predominant threats to reptiles.

Ecological significance of rice (Oryza sativa) planting density and nitrogen rates in managing the growth and competitive ability of itchgrass (Rottboellia cochinchinensis) in direct-seeded rice systems

Current understanding is that high planting density has the potential to suppress weeds and crop-weed interactions can be exploited by adjusting fertilizer rates. We hypothesized that (a) high planting density can be used to suppress Rottboellia cochinchinensis growth and (b) rice competitiveness against this weed can be enhanced by increasing nitrogen (N) rates. We tested these hypotheses by growing R. cochinchinensis alone and in competition with four rice planting densities (0, 100, 200, and 400 plants m-2) at four N rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg ha-1). At 56 days after sowing (DAS), R. cochinchinensis plant height decreased by 27-50 %, tiller number by 55-76 %, leaf number by 68-84 %, leaf area by 70-83 %, leaf biomass by 26-90 %, and inflorescence biomass by 60-84 %, with rice densities ranging from 100 to 400 plants m-2. All these parameters increased with an increase in N rate. Without the addition of N, R. cochinchinensis plants were 174 % taller than rice; whereas, with added N, they were 233 % taller. Added N favored more weed biomass production relative to rice. R. cochinchinensis grew taller than rice (at all N rates) to avoid shade, which suggests that it is a "shade-avoiding" plant. R. cochinchinensis showed this ability to reduce the effect of rice interference through increased leaf weight ratio, specific stem length, and decreased root-shoot weight ratio. This weed is more responsive to N fertilizer than rice. Therefore, farmers should give special consideration to the application timing of N fertilizer when more N-responsive weeds are present in their field. Results suggest that the growth and seed production of R. cochinchinensis can be decreased considerably by increasing rice density to 400 plants m-2. There is a need to integrate different weed control measures to achieve complete control of this noxious weed.

Agronomic indices, growth, yield-contributing traits, and yield of dry-seeded rice under varying herbicides

Dry-seeded rice (DSR) is an emerging resource-conserving technology in many Asian countries, but weeds remain the major threat to the production of DSR systems. A field study was conducted in 2012 and 2013 at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines, to evaluate the performance of sole and sequential applications of preemergence (oxadiazon and pendimethalin), early postemergence (butachlor + propanil and thiobencarb + 2,4-D), and late postemergence herbicides (bispyribac-sodium and fenoxaprop + ethoxysulfuron) with different modes of action in comparison to manual weeding in DSR. The sequential applications of all preemergence and postemergence herbicides reduced weed density and biomass by 80–100% compared to the nontreated plots. The sole application of postemergence herbicides reduced weed density by only 44–54% and weed biomass by 51–61%, whereas oxadiazon alone reduced weed density and biomass by 96–100%. All herbicide treatments and manual weeding significantly affected tiller number, biomass, crop growth rate, agronomic indices, yield-contributing parameters (panicle density and filled grains), and yield (biological and grain) of rice. The highest grain yield was obtained in the manually weeded plots (5.9–6.1 t ha−1) and the plots treated with oxadiazon alone (5.4–5.6 t ha−1) and oxadiazon followed by postemergence herbicides (5.2–5.8 t ha−1). The lowest paddy yield (0.22 t ha−1) was achieved in the nontreated plots followed by the plots treated with the sole application of bispyribac-sodium and fenoxaprop + ethoxysulfuron. The results suggest that oxadiazon is the best broad-spectrum and economically effective herbicide when applied alone or in combination with other effective postemergence herbicides with different modes of action, depending on the weed species present in the field.

Growth analysis and biomass partitioning of Cyperus iria in response to rice planting density and nitrogen rate

Cyperus iria is a weed of rice with widespread occurrence throughout the world. Because of concerns about excessive and injudicious use of herbicides, cultural weed management approaches that are safe and economical are needed. Developing such approaches will require a better understanding of weed biology and ecology, as well as of weed response to increases in crop density and nutrition. Knowledge of the effects of nitrogen (N) fertilizer on crop-weed competitive interactions could also help in the development of integrated weed management strategies. The present study was conducted in a screenhouse to determine the effects of rice planting density (0, 5, 10, and 20 plants pot−1) and N rate (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg ha−1) on the growth of C. iria. Tiller number per plant decreased by 73–88%, leaf number by 85–94%, leaf area by 85–98%, leaf biomass by 92–99%, and inflorescence biomass by 96–99% when weed plants were grown at 20 rice plants pot−1 (i.e., 400 plants m−2) compared with weed plants grown alone. All of these parameters increased when N rates were increased. On average, weed biomass increased by 118–389% and rice biomass by 121–275% with application of 50–150 kg N ha−1, compared to control. Addition of N favored weed biomass production relative to rice biomass. Increased N rates reduced the root-to-shoot weight ratio of C. iria. Rice interference reduced weed growth and biomass and completely suppressed C. iria when no N was applied at high planting densities (i.e., 20 plants pot−1). The weed showed phenotypic plasticity in response to N application, and the addition of N increased the competitive ability of the weed over rice at densities of 5 and 10 rice plants pot−1 compared with 20 plants pot−1. The results of the present study suggest that high rice density (i.e., 400 plants m−2) can help suppress C. iria growth even at high N rates (150 kg ha−1).

Molecular evidence of Ebola Reston virus infection in Philippine bats

Background: In 2008-09, evidence of Reston ebolavirus (RESTV) infection was found in domestic pigs and pig workers in the Philippines. With species of bats having been shown to be the cryptic reservoir of filoviruses elsewhere, the Philippine government, in conjunction with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, assembled a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional team to investigate Philippine bats as the possible reservoir of RESTV. Methods: The team undertook surveillance of bat populations at multiple locations during 2010 using both serology and molecular assays. Results: A total of 464 bats from 21 species were sampled. We found both molecular and serologic evidence of RESTV infection in multiple bat species. RNA was detected with quantitative PCR (qPCR) in oropharyngeal swabs taken from Miniopterus schreibersii, with three samples yielding a product on conventional hemi-nested PCR whose sequences differed from a Philippine pig isolate by a single nucleotide. Uncorroborated qPCR detections may indicate RESTV nucleic acid in several additional bat species (M. australis, C. brachyotis and Ch. plicata). We also detected anti-RESTV antibodies in three bats (Acerodon jubatus) using both Western blot and ELISA. Conclusions: The findings suggest that ebolavirus infection is taxonomically widespread in Philippine bats, but the evident low prevalence and low viral load warrants expanded surveillance to elaborate the findings, and more broadly, to determine the taxonomic and geographic occurrence of ebolaviruses in bats in the region. © 2015 Jayme et al.

Fungal Planet description sheets: 371-399

Novel species of fungi described in the present study include the following from Australia: Neoseptorioides eucalypti gen. & sp. nov. from Eucalyptus radiata leaves, Phytophthora gondwanensis from soil, Diaporthe tulliensis from rotted stem ends of Theobroma cacao fruit, Diaporthe vawdreyi from fruit rot of Psidium guajava, Magnaporthiopsis agrostidis from rotted roots of Agrostis stolonifera and Semifissispora natalis from Eucalyptus leaf litter. Furthermore, Neopestalotiopsis egyptiaca is described from Mangifera indica leaves (Egypt), Roussoella mexicana from Coffea arabica leaves (Mexico), Calonectria monticola from soil (Thailand), Hygrocybe jackmanii from littoral sand dunes (Canada), Lindgomyces madisonensis from submerged decorticated wood (USA), Neofabraea brasiliensis from Malus domestica (Brazil), Geastrum diosiae from litter (Argentina), Ganoderma wiiroense on angiosperms (Ghana), Arthrinium gutiae from the gut of a grasshopper (India), Pyrenochaeta telephoni from the screen of a mobile phone (India) and Xenoleptographium phialoconidium gen. & sp. nov. on exposed xylem tissues of Gmelina arborea (Indonesia). Several novelties are introduced from Spain, namely Psathyrella complutensis on loamy soil, Chlorophyllum lusitanicum on nitrified grasslands (incl. Chlorophyllum arizonicum comb. nov.), Aspergillus citocrescens from cave sediment and Lotinia verna gen. & sp. nov. from muddy soil. Novel foliicolous taxa from South Africa include Phyllosticta carissicola from Carissa macrocarpa, Pseudopyricularia hagahagae from Cyperaceae and Zeloasperisporium searsiae from Searsia chirindensis. Furthermore, Neophaeococcomyces is introduced as a novel genus, with two new combinations, N. aloes and N. catenatus. Several foliicolous novelties are recorded from La Réunion, France, namely Ochroconis pandanicola from Pandanus utilis, Neosulcatispora agaves gen. & sp. nov. from Agave vera-cruz, Pilidium eucalyptorum from Eucalyptus robusta, Strelitziana syzygii from Syzygium jambos (incl. Strelitzianaceae fam. nov.) and Pseudobeltrania ocoteae from Ocotea obtusata (Beltraniaceae emend.). Morphological and culture characteristics along with ITS DNA barcodes are provided for all taxa.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Analysis and Improvements to the Green Falcon Solar Powered UAV

There has recently been a rapidly increasing interest in solar powered UAVs. With the emergence of high power density batteries, long range and low-power micro radio devices, airframes, and powerful micro-processors and motors, small/micro UAVs have become applicable in civilian applications such as remote sensing, mapping, traffic monitoring, search and rescue. The Green Falcon UAV is an innovative project from Queensland University of Technology and has been developed and tested during these past years. It comprises a wide range of subsystems to be analyses and studied such as Solar Panel Cells, Gas sensor, Aerodynamics of the wing and others. Previous test however, resulted in damage to the solar cells and some of the subsystems including motor and ESC. This report describes the repair and verification process followed to improve the efficiency of the Green Falcon UAV. The report shows some of the results obtained in previous static and flight tests as well as some of recommendations.

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

Precoding with X-codes to increase capacity with discrete input alphabets

We consider Gaussian multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channels with discrete input alphabets. We propose a non-diagonal precoder based on X-Codes in to increase the mutual information. The MIMO channel is transformed into a set of parallel subchannels using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and X-codes are then used to pair the subchannels. X-Codes are fully characterized by the pairings and the 2 × 2 real rotation matrices for each pair (parameterized with a single angle). This precoding structure enables to express the total mutual information as a sum of the mutual information of all the pairs. The problem of finding the optimal precoder with the above structure, which maximizes the total mutual information, is equivalent to i) optimizing the rotation angle and the power allocation within each pair and ii) finding the optimal pairing and power allocation among the pairs. It is shown that the mutual information achieved with the proposed pairing scheme is very close to that achieved with the optimal precoder by Cruz et al., and significantly better than mercury/waterfilling strategy by Lozano et al.. Our approach greatly simplifies both the precoder optimization and the detection complexity, making it suitable for practical applications.