Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The combined effect of biological control with plant competition on the management of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus l.)

Parthenium hysterophorus L., (Asteraceae) commonly known as parthenium weed, is a highly invasive plant that has become a problematic weed of pasture lands in Australia and many other countries around the world. For the management of this weed, an integrated approach comprising biological control and plant competition strategies was tested in southern central Queensland. Two competitive pasture plant species (butterfly pea and buffel grass), selected for their high competitive ability, worked successfully with the biological control agent (Epiblema strenuana Walker) to synergistically reduce the biomass of parthenium weed, by between 62 and 69%. In the presence of biological control agent, the corresponding biomass of competitive plants, butterfly pea and buffel grass increased in comparison to when the biological control agent had been excluded, by 15 and 35%, respectively. This suggests that biological control and competitive plants can complement one another to bring about improved management of parthenium weed in Australia. Further, this approach may be adopted in countries where some of the biological control agents are already present including South Africa, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Nepal.

Biological data and model development for management of longfinned eels

Objectives: 1. Estimate population parameters required for a management model. These include survival, density, age structure, growth, age and size at maturity and at recruitment to the adult eel fishery. Estimate their variability among individuals in a range of habitats. 2. Develop a management population dynamics model and use it to investigate management options. 3. Establish baseline data and sustainability indicators for long-term monitoring. 4. Assess the applicability of the above techniques to other eel fisheries in Australia, in collaboration with NSW. Distribute developed tools via the Australia and New Zealand Eel Reference Group.

The host specificity and climatic suitability of the gall flyCecidochares connexa(Diptera: Tephritidae), a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata(Asteraceae) in Australia

The gall fly Cecidochares connexa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata in Australia. Its host specificity was determined against 18 species in the tribe Eupatorieae (Family Asteraceae) in which C. odorata belongs, in quarantine in Brisbane, Australia. Oviposition occurred and flies developed on only C. odorata and Praxelis clematidea, both of which are in the subtribe Praxelinae. P. clematidea is considered a weed outside tropical America. In both multiple-species-minus-C. odorata choice tests and single-species no-choice tests, the mean number of galls/plant was significantly greater on C. odorata (48 and 41, respectively) than on P. clematidea (2 and 9, respectively). There were also significantly more adults emerging from C. odorata (mean 129 and 169, respectively) in the two types of tests than from P. clematidea (1 and 8, respectively). Paired choice, multiple generation (continuation) and time dependent tests further clarified the extent that C. connexa could develop on P. clematidea. In these tests, the mean number of galls formed and the mean number of emerging adults were consistently less for P. clematidea than C. odorata and populations of C. connexa could not be maintained on P. clematidea. Galls were not seen on any other plant species tested. This study supports the results of host specificity testing conducted in seven other countries and confirms that C. connexa poses little risk to other plant species in Australia. C. connexa has been released in 10 countries and an application seeking approval to release in Australia has been submitted to the Australian Government.

The host range of four new biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus (Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae) from southern USA and their potential as biological control agents of Cylindropuntiaspp.(Cactaceae) in Australia: Part II.

Eight Cylindropuntia species have naturalised in Australia and pose serious economic, environmental and social impacts. Two biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus have been used as bio-control agents to control different Cylindropuntia species. The host range of four additional biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus from southern USA was investigated. Feeding and development were restricted to the genus Cylindropuntia. However, they showed differences in specificity within this genus and some biotypes discriminated between the provenances of C. rosea and C. tunicata. Efficacy trials were conducted to determine whether populations of each biotype could be sustained on the naturalised Cylindropuntia species and if these populations could retard the growth or kill these plants. The acanthocarpa biotype offers potential control of C. rosea (Lorne Station), while the cylindropuntia sp. biotype shows great potential to control C. rosea (Grawin). The cylindropuntia sp. biotype also had a high impact on C. kleiniae and C. imbricata, and a moderate impact on C. leptocaulis and C. prolifera. The acanthocarpa X echinocarpa biotype had its greatest impact on C. tunicata (Grawin), killing this plant in 18 weeks. A fourth biotype, leptocaulis, was damaging to some species, but was less effective than the other biotypes. Cylindropuntia spinosior is the only naturalised species in Australia where no effective biocontrol agent has been found.

Development and psychometric properties of the DCDDaily: a new test for clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living in children with developmental coordination disorder

Objective To develop the DCDDaily, an instrument for objective and standardized clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living (ADL) in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD), and to investigate its usability, reliability, and validity. Subjects Five to eight-year-old children with and without DCD. Main measures The DCDDaily was developed based on thorough review of the literature and extensive expert involvement. To investigate the usability (assessment time and feasibility), reliability (internal consistency and repeatability), and validity (concurrent and discriminant validity) of the DCDDaily, children were assessed with the DCDDaily and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test, and their parents filled in the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Checklist and Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire. Results 459 children were assessed (DCD group, n = 55; normative reference group, n = 404). Assessment was possible within 30 minutes and in any clinical setting. For internal consistency, Cronbach’s α = 0.83. Intraclass correlation = 0.87 for test–retest reliability and 0.89 for inter-rater reliability. Concurrent correlations with Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test and questionnaires were ρ = −0.494, 0.239, and −0.284, p < 0.001. Discriminant validity measures showed significantly worse performance in the DCD group than in the control group (mean (SD) score 33 (5.6) versus 26 (4.3), p < 0.001). The area under curve characteristic = 0.872, sensitivity and specificity were 80%. Conclusions The DCDDaily is a valid and reliable instrument for clinical assessment of capacity in ADL, that is feasible for use in clinical practice.

Road Dust from Pavement Wear and Traction Sanding

Vehicles affect the concentrations of ambient airborne particles through exhaust emissions, but particles are also formed in the mechanical processes in the tire-road interface, brakes, and engine. Particles deposited on or in the vicinity of the road may be re-entrained, or resuspended, into air through vehicle-induced turbulence and shearing stress of the tires. A commonly used term for these particles is road dust . The processes affecting road dust emissions are complex and currently not well known. Road dust has been acknowledged as a dominant source of PM10 especially during spring in the sub-arctic urban areas, e.g. in Scandinavia, Finland, North America and Japan. The high proportion of road dust in sub-arctic regions of the world has been linked to the snowy winter conditions that make it necessary to use traction control methods. Traction control methods include dispersion of traction sand, melting of ice with brine solutions, and equipping the tires with either metal studs (studded winter tires), snow chains, or special tire design (friction tires). Several of these methods enhance the formation of mineral particles from pavement wear and/or from traction sand that accumulate in the road environment during winter. When snow and ice melt and surfaces dry out, traffic-induced turbulence makes some of the particles airborne. A general aim of this study was to study processes and factors underlying and affecting the formation and emissions of road dust from paved road surfaces. Special emphasis was placed on studying particle formation and sources during tire road interaction, especially when different applications of traction control, namely traction sanding and/or winter tires were in use. Respirable particles with aerodynamic diameter below 10 micrometers (PM10) have been the main concern, but other size ranges and particle size distributions were also studied. The following specific research questions were addressed: i) How do traction sanding and physical properties of the traction sand aggregate affect formation of road dust? ii) How do studded tires affect the formation of road dust when compared with friction tires? iii) What are the composition and sources of airborne road dust in a road simulator and during a springtime road dust episode in Finland? iv) What is the size distribution of abrasion particles from tire-road interaction? The studies were conducted both in a road simulator and in field conditions. The test results from the road simulator showed that traction sanding increased road dust emissions, and that the effect became more dominant with increasing sand load. A high percentage of fine-grained anti-skid aggregate of overall grading increased the PM10 concentrations. Anti-skid aggregate with poor resistance to fragmentation resulted in higher PM levels compared with the other aggregates, and the effect became more significant with higher aggregate loads. Glaciofluvial aggregates tended to cause higher particle concentrations than crushed rocks with good fragmentation resistance. Comparison of tire types showed that studded tires result in higher formation of PM emissions compared with friction tires. The same trend between the tires was present in the tests with and without anti-skid aggregate. This finding applies to test conditions of the road simulator with negligible resuspension. Source and composition analysis showed that the particles in the road simulator were mainly minerals and originated from both traction sand and pavement aggregates. A clear contribution of particles from anti-skid aggregate to ambient PM and dust deposition was also observed in urban conditions. The road simulator results showed that the interaction between tires, anti-skid aggregate and road surface is important in dust production and the relative contributions of these sources depend on their properties. Traction sand grains are fragmented into smaller particles under the tires, but they also wear the pavement aggregate. Therefore particles from both aggregates are observed. The mass size distribution of traction sand and pavement wear particles was mainly coarse, but fine and submicron particles were also present.

Short-term effects of variable retention on epigaeic spiders and carabid beetles in Finland

Forestry has influenced forest dwelling organisms for centuries in Fennoscandia. For example, in Finland ca. 30% of the threatened species are threatened because of forestry. Nowadays forest management recommendations include practices aimed at maintaining biodiversity in harvesting, such as green-tree retention. However, the effects of these practices have been little studied. In variable retention, different numbers of trees are retained, varying from green-tree retention (at least a few live standing trees in clear-cuts) to thinning (only individual trees removed). I examined the responses of ground-dwelling spiders and carabid beetles to green-tree retention (with small and large tree groups), gap felling and thinning aimed at an uneven age structure of trees. The impacts of these harvesting methods were compared to those of clear-cutting and uncut controls. I aimed to test the hypothesis that retaining more trees positively affects populations of those species of spiders and carabids that were present before harvesting. The data come from two studies. First, spiders were collected with pitfall traps in south-central Finland in 1995 (pre-treatment) and 1998 (after-treatment) in order to examine the effects of clear-cutting, green-tree retention (with 0.01-0.02-ha sized tree groups), gap felling (with three 0.16-ha sized openings in a 1-ha stand), thinning aiming at an uneven age structure of trees and uncut control. Second, spiders and carabids were caught with pitfall traps in eastern Finland in 1998-2001 (pre-treatment and three post-treatment years) in eleven 0.09-0.55-ha sized retention-tree groups and clear-cuts adjacent to them. Original spider and carabid assemblages were better maintained after harvests that retained more trees. Thinning maintained forest spiders well. However, gap felling and large retention-tree groups maintained some forest spider and carabid species in the short-term, but negatively affected some species over time. However, use of small retention-tree groups was associated with negative effects on forest spider populations. Studies are needed on the long-term effects of variable retention on terrestrial invertebrates; especially those directed at defining appropriate retention patch size and on the importance of structural diversity provided by variable retention for invertebrate populations. However, the aims of variable retention should be specified first. For example, are retention-tree groups planned to constitute life-boats , stepping-stones or to create structural diversity? Does it suffice that some species are maintained, or do we want to preserve the most sensitive ones, and how are these best defined? Moreover, the ecological benefits and economic costs of modified logging methods should be compared to other approaches aimed at maintaining biodiversity.

Bending the Rules of Cell Protrusions : Molecular Mechanisms and Biological Roles of Inverse-BAR Proteins in Cell Morphogenesis

Plasma membrane adopts myriad of different shapes to carry out essential cellular processes such as nutrient uptake, immunological defence mechanisms and cell migration. Therefore, the details how different plasma membrane structures are made and remodelled are of the upmost importance. Bending of plasma membrane into different shapes requires substantial amount of force, which can be provided by the actin cytoskeleton, however, the molecules that regulate the interplay between the actin cytoskeleton and plasma membrane have remained elusive. Recent findings have placed new types of effectors at sites of plasma membrane remodelling, including BAR proteins, which can directly bind and deform plasma membrane into different shapes. In addition to their membrane-bending abilities, BAR proteins also harbor protein domains that intimately link them to the actin cytoskeleton. The ancient BAR domain fold has evolved into at least three structurally and functionally different sub-groups: the BAR, F-BAR and I-BAR domains. This thesis work describes the discovery and functional characterization of the Inverse-BAR domains (I-BARs). Using synthetic model membranes, we have shown that I-BAR domains bind and deform membranes into tubular structures through a binding-surface composed of positively charged amino acids. Importantly, the membrane-binding surface of I-BAR domains displays an inverse geometry to that of the BAR and F-BAR domains, and these structural differences explain why I-BAR domains induce cell protrusions whereas BAR and most F-BAR domains induce cell invaginations. In addition, our results indicate that the binding of I-BAR domains to membranes can alter the spatial organization of phosphoinositides within membranes. Intriguingly, we also found that some I-BAR domains can insert helical motifs into the membrane bilayer, which has important consequences for their membrane binding/bending functions. In mammals there are five I-BAR domain containing proteins. Cell biological studies on ABBA revealed that it is highly expressed in radial glial cells during the development of the central nervous system and plays an important role in the extension process of radial glia-like C6R cells by regulating lamellipodial dynamics through its I-BAR domain. To reveal the role of these proteins in the context of animals, we analyzed MIM knockout mice and found that MIM is required for proper renal functions in adult mice. MIM deficient mice displayed a severe urine concentration defect due to defective intercellular junctions of the kidney epithelia. Consistently, MIM localized to adherens junctions in cultured kidney epithelial cells, where it promoted actin assembly through its I-BAR andWH2 domains. In summary, this thesis describes the mechanism how I-BAR proteins deform membranes and provides information about the biological role of these proteins, which to our knowledge are the first proteins that have been shown to directly deform plasma membrane to make cell protrusions.

Evolutionary Genomics of Prokaryotic Viruses

Evolutionary history of biological entities is recorded within their nucleic acid sequences and can (sometimes) be deciphered by thorough genomic analysis. In this study we sought to gain insights into the diversity and evolution of bacterial and archaeal viruses. Our primary interest was pointed towards those virus groups/families for which comprehensive genomic analysis was not previously possible due to the lack of sufficient amount of genomic data. During the course of this work twenty-five putative proviruses integrated into various prokaryotic genomes were identified, enabling us to undertake a comparative genomics approach. This analysis allowed us to test the previously formulated evolutionary hypotheses and also provided valuable information on the molecular mechanisms behind the genome evolution of the studied virus groups.

Role of Temperature in the Biological Activity of a Boreal Forest

In northern latitudes, temperature is the key factor driving the temporal scales of biological activity, namely the length of the growing season and the seasonal efficiency of photosynthesis. The formation of atmospheric concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are linked to the intensity of biological activity. However, interdisciplinary knowledge of the role of temperature in the biological processes related to the annual cycle and photosynthesis and atmospheric chemistry is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to improve understanding of the role of temperature in these three interlinked areas: 1) onset of growing season, 2) photosynthetic efficiency and 3) BVOC air concentrations in a boreal forest. The results present a cross-section of the role of temperature on different spatial (southern northern boreal), structural (tree forest stand - forest) and temporal (day-season- year) scales. The fundamental status of the Thermal Time model in predicting the onset of spring recovery was confirmed. However, it was recommended that sequential models would be more appropriate tools when the onset of the growing season is estimated under a warmer climate. A similar type of relationship between photosynthetic efficiency and temperature history was found in both southern and northern boreal forest stands. This result draws attention to the critical question of the seasonal efficiency of coniferous species to emit organic compounds under a warmer climate. New knowledge about the temperature dependence of the concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds in a boreal forest stand was obtained. The seasonal progress and the inter-correlation of BVOC concentrations in ambient air indicated a link to biological activity. Temperature was found to be the main driving factor for the concentrations. However, in addition to temperature, other factors may play a significant role here, especially when the peak concentrations are studied. There is strong evidence that the spring recovery and phenological events of many plant species have already advanced in Europe. This study does not fully support this observation. In a boreal forest, changes in the annual cycle, especially the temperature requirement in winter, would have an impact on the atmospheric BVOC composition. According to this study, more joint phenological and BVOC field observations and laboratory experiments are still needed to improve these scenarios.

Evaluation of methods and applications for behavioural profiling of transgenic mice

During the last 10-15 years interest in mouse behavioural analysis has evolved considerably. The driving force is development in molecular biological techniques that allow manipulation of the mouse genome by changing the expression of genes. Therefore, with some limitations it is possible to study how genes participate in regulation of physiological functions and to create models explaining genetic contribution to various pathological conditions. The first aim of our study was to establish a framework for behavioural phenotyping of genetically modified mice. We established comprehensive battery of tests for the initial screening of mutant mice. These included tests for exploratory and locomotor activity, emotional behaviour, sensory functions, and cognitive performance. Our interest was in the behavioural patterns of common background strains used for genetic manipulations in mice. Additionally we studied the behavioural effect of sex differences, test history, and individual housing. Our findings highlight the importance of careful consideration of genetic background for analysis of mutant mice. It was evident that some backgrounds may mask or modify the behavioural phenotype of mutants and thereby lead to false positive or negative findings. Moreover, there is no universal strain that is equally suitable for all tests, and using different backgrounds allows one to address possible phenotype modifying factors. We discovered that previous experience affected performance in several tasks. The most sensitive traits were the exploratory and emotional behaviour, as well as motor and nociceptive functions. Therefore, it may be essential to repeat some of the tests in naïve animals for assuring the phenotype. Social isolation for a long time period had strong effects on exploratory behaviour, but also on learning and memory. All experiments revealed significant interactions between strain and environmental factors (test history or housing condition) indicating genotype-dependent effects of environmental manipulations. Several mutant line analyses utilize this information. For example, we studied mice overexpressing as well as those lacking extracellular matrix protein heparin-binding growth-associated molecule (HB-GAM), and mice lacking N-syndecan (a receptor for HB-GAM). All mutant mice appeared to be fertile and healthy, without any apparent neurological or sensory defects. The lack of HB-GAM and N-syndecan, however, significantly reduced the learning capacity of the mice. On the other hand, overexpression of HB-GAM resulted in facilitated learning. Moreover, HB-GAM knockout mice displayed higher anxiety-like behaviour, whereas anxiety was reduced in HB-GAM overexpressing mice. Changes in hippocampal plasticity accompanied the behavioural phenotypes. We conclude that HB-GAM and N-syndecan are involved in the modulation of synaptic plasticity in hippocampus and play a role in regulation of anxiety- and learning-related behaviour.