Development of human visual system analysis for the implementation of a new instrument for flicker measurement

Flicker is a power quality phenomenon that applies to cycle instability of light intensity resulting from supply voltage fluctuation, which, in turn can be caused by disturbances introduced during power generation, transmission or distribution. The standard EN 61000-4-15 which has been recently adopted also by the IEEE as IEEE Standard 1453 relies on the analysis of the supply voltage which is processed according to a suitable model of the lamp – human eye – brain chain. As for the lamp, an incandescent 60 W, 230 V, 50 Hz source is assumed. As far as the human eye – brain model is concerned, it is represented by the so-called flicker curve. Such a curve was determined several years ago by statistically analyzing the results of tests where people were subjected to flicker with different combinations of magnitude and frequency. The limitations of this standard approach to flicker evaluation are essentially two. First, the provided index of annoyance Pst can be related to an actual tiredness of the human visual system only if such an incandescent lamp is used. Moreover, the implemented response to flicker is “subjective” given that it relies on the people answers about their feelings. In the last 15 years, many scientific contributions have tackled these issues by investigating the possibility to develop a novel model of the eye-brain response to flicker and overcome the strict dependence of the standard on the kind of the light source. In this light of fact, this thesis is aimed at presenting an important contribution for a new Flickermeter. An improved visual system model using a physiological parameter that is the mean value of the pupil diameter, has been presented, thus allowing to get a more “objective” representation of the response to flicker. The system used to both generate flicker and measure the pupil diameter has been illustrated along with all the results of several experiments performed on the volunteers. The intent has been to demonstrate that the measurement of that geometrical parameter can give reliable information about the feeling of the human visual system to light flicker.

Shear behaviour of reinforced cconcrete slab under concentrated load: an investigation through non-linear and sequentially linear analysis

English: The assessment of safety in existing bridges and viaducts led the Ministry of Public Works of the Netherlands to finance a specific campaing aimed at the study of the response of the elements of these infrastructures. Therefore, this activity is focused on the investigation of the behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs under concentrated loads, adopting finite element modeling and comparison with experimental results. These elements are characterized by shear behaviour and crisi, whose modeling is, from a computational point of view, a hard challeng, due to the brittle behavior combined with three-dimensional effects. The numerical modeling of the failure is studied through Sequentially Linear Analysis (SLA), an alternative Finite Element method, with respect to traditional incremental and iterative approaches. The comparison between the two different numerical techniques represents one of the first works and comparisons in a three-dimensional environment. It's carried out adopting one of the experimental test executed on reinforced concrete slabs as well. The advantage of the SLA is to avoid the well known problems of convergence of typical non-linear analysis, by directly specifying a damage increment, in terms of reduction of stiffness and resistance in particular finite element, instead of load or displacement increasing on the whole structure . For the first time, particular attention has been paid to specific aspects of the slabs, like an accurate constraints modeling and sensitivity of the solution with respect to the mesh density. This detailed analysis with respect to the main parameters proofed a strong influence of the tensile fracture energy, mesh density and chosen model on the solution in terms of force-displacement diagram, distribution of the crack patterns and shear failure mode. The SLA showed a great potential, but it requires a further developments for what regards two aspects of modeling: load conditions (constant and proportional loads) and softening behaviour of brittle materials (like concrete) in the three-dimensional field, in order to widen its horizons in these new contexts of study.

Dynamic analysis of the motorcycle chattering behaviour by means of symbolic multibody modelling

Aim of this research is the development and validation of a comprehensive multibody motorcycle model featuring rigid-ring tires, taking into account both slope and roughness of road surfaces. A novel parametrization for the general kinematics of the motorcycle is proposed, using a mixed reference-point and relative-coordinates approach. The resulting description, developed in terms of dependent coordinates, makes it possible to efficiently include rigid-ring kinematics as well as road elevation and slope. The equations of motion for the multibody system are derived symbolically and the constraint equations arising from the dependent-coordinate formulation are handled using a projection technique. Therefore the resulting system of equations can be integrated in time domain using a standard ODE algorithm. The model is validated with respect to maneuvers experimentally measured on the race track, showing consistent results and excellent computational efficiency. More in detail, it is also capable of reproducing the chatter vibration of racing motorcycles. The chatter phenomenon, appearing during high speed cornering maneuvers, consists of a self-excited vertical oscillation of both the front and rear unsprung masses in the range of frequency between 17 and 22 Hz. A critical maneuver is numerically simulated, and a self-excited vibration appears, consistent with the experimentally measured chatter vibration. Finally, the driving mechanism for the self-excitation is highlighted and a physical interpretation is proposed.

A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Analysis and partial solutions of security problems in automotive environments

Questo scritto mira a fare una panoramica dei problemi legati alla sicurezza della comunicazione tra componenti interne dei veicoli e delle soluzioni oggigiorno disponibili. Partendo con una descrizione generale del circuito interno dell’auto analizzeremo i suoi punti di accesso e discuteremo i danni prodotti dalla sua manomissione illecita. In seguito vedremo se ´è possibile prevenire tali attacchi dando un’occhiata alle soluzioni disponibili e soffermandoci in particolare sui moduli crittografici e le loro applicazioni. Infine presenteremo l’implementazione pratica di un protocollo di autenticazione tra ECUs e una dimostrazione matematica della sua sicurezza.

Effects of glucosamine, chondroitin, or placebo in patients with osteoarthritis of hip or knee: network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of glucosamine, chondroitin, or the two in combination on joint pain and on radiological progression of disease in osteoarthritis of the hip or knee. Design Network meta-analysis. Direct comparisons within trials were combined with indirect evidence from other trials by using a Bayesian model that allowed the synthesis of multiple time points. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Pain intensity. Secondary outcome was change in minimal width of joint space. The minimal clinically important difference between preparations and placebo was prespecified at -0.9 cm on a 10 cm visual analogue scale. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and conference proceedings from inception to June 2009, expert contact, relevant websites. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Large scale randomised controlled trials in more than 200 patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip that compared glucosamine, chondroitin, or their combination with placebo or head to head. Results 10 trials in 3803 patients were included. On a 10 cm visual analogue scale the overall difference in pain intensity compared with placebo was -0.4 cm (95% credible interval -0.7 to -0.1 cm) for glucosamine, -0.3 cm (-0.7 to 0.0 cm) for chondroitin, and -0.5 cm (-0.9 to 0.0 cm) for the combination. For none of the estimates did the 95% credible intervals cross the boundary of the minimal clinically important difference. Industry independent trials showed smaller effects than commercially funded trials (P=0.02 for interaction). The differences in changes in minimal width of joint space were all minute, with 95% credible intervals overlapping zero. Conclusions Compared with placebo, glucosamine, chondroitin, and their combination do not reduce joint pain or have an impact on narrowing of joint space. Health authorities and health insurers should not cover the costs of these preparations, and new prescriptions to patients who have not received treatment should be discouraged.

Core networks for visual-concrete and abstract thought content: a brain electric microstate analysis

Commonality of activation of spontaneously forming and stimulus-induced mental representations is an often made but rarely tested assumption in neuroscience. In a conjunction analysis of two earlier studies, brain electric activity during visual-concrete and abstract thoughts was studied. The conditions were: in study 1, spontaneous stimulus-independent thinking (post-hoc, visual imagery or abstract thought were identified); in study 2, reading of single nouns ranking high or low on a visual imagery scale. In both studies, subjects' tasks were similar: when prompted, they had to recall the last thought (study 1) or the last word (study 2). In both studies, subjects had no instruction to classify or to visually imagine their thoughts, and accordingly were not aware of the studies' aim. Brain electric data were analyzed into functional topographic brain images (using LORETA) of the last microstate before the prompt (study 1) and of the word-type discriminating event-related microstate after word onset (study 2). Conjunction analysis across the two studies yielded commonality of activation of core networks for abstract thought content in left anterior superior regions, and for visual-concrete thought content in right temporal-posterior inferior regions. The results suggest that two different core networks are automatedly activated when abstract or visual-concrete information, respectively, enters working memory, without a subject task or instruction about the two classes of information, and regardless of internal or external origin, and of input modality. These core machineries of working memory thus are invariant to source or modality of input when treating the two types of information.

Growth hormone receptor polymorphism and growth hormone therapy response in children: a bayesian meta-analysis

Recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) therapy is used in the long-term treatment of children with growth disorders, but there is considerable treatment response variability. The exon 3-deleted growth hormone receptor polymorphism (GHR(d3)) may account for some of this variability. The authors performed a systematic review (to April 2011), including investigator-only data, to quantify the effects of the GHR(fl-d3) and GHR(d3-d3) genotypes on rhGH therapy response and used a recently established Bayesian inheritance model-free approach to meta-analyze the data. The primary outcome was the 1-year change-in-height standard-deviation score for the 2 genotypes. Eighteen data sets from 12 studies (1,527 children) were included. After several prior assumptions were tested, the most appropriate inheritance model was codominant (posterior probability = 0.93). Compared with noncarriers, carriers had median differences in 1-year change-in-height standard-deviation score of 0.09 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.01, 0.17) for GHR(fl-d3) and of 0.14 (95% CrI: 0.02, 0.26) for GHR(d3-d3). However, the between-study standard deviation of 0.18 (95% CrI: 0.10, 0.33) was considerable. The authors tested by meta-regression for potential modifiers and found no substantial influence. They conclude that 1) the GHR(d3) polymorphism inheritance is codominant, contrasting with previous reports; 2) GHR(d3) genotypes account for modest increases in rhGH effects in children; and 3) considerable unexplained variability in responsiveness remains.

Investigating human audio-visual object perception with a combination of hypothesis-generating and hypothesis-testing fMRI analysis tools

Primate multisensory object perception involves distributed brain regions. To investigate the network character of these regions of the human brain, we applied data-driven group spatial independent component analysis (ICA) to a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data set acquired during a passive audio-visual (AV) experiment with common object stimuli. We labeled three group-level independent component (IC) maps as auditory (A), visual (V), and AV, based on their spatial layouts and activation time courses. The overlap between these IC maps served as definition of a distributed network of multisensory candidate regions including superior temporal, ventral occipito-temporal, posterior parietal and prefrontal regions. During an independent second fMRI experiment, we explicitly tested their involvement in AV integration. Activations in nine out of these twelve regions met the max-criterion (A < AV > V) for multisensory integration. Comparison of this approach with a general linear model-based region-of-interest definition revealed its complementary value for multisensory neuroimaging. In conclusion, we estimated functional networks of uni- and multisensory functional connectivity from one dataset and validated their functional roles in an independent dataset. These findings demonstrate the particular value of ICA for multisensory neuroimaging research and using independent datasets to test hypotheses generated from a data-driven analysis.

Urban Expansion and its impact on urban agriculture - remote sensing based change analysis of Kizinga and Mzinga Valley - Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Urban agriculture is a phenomenon that can be observed world-wide, particularly in cities of devel- oping countries. It is contributing significantly to food security and food safety and has sustained livelihood of the urban and peri-urban low income dwe llers in developing countries for many years. Population increase due to rural-urban migration and natural - formal as well as informal - urbani- sation are competing with urban farming for available space and scarce water resources. A mul- titemporal and multisensoral urban change analysis over the period of 25 years (1982-2007) was performed in order to measure and visualise the urban expansion along the Kizinga and Mzinga valley in the south of Dar Es Salaam. Airphotos and VHR satellite data were analysed by using a combination of a composition of anisotropic textural measures and spectral information. The study revealed that unplanned built-up area is expanding continuously, and vegetation covers and agricultural lands decline at a fast rate. The validation showed that the overall classification accuracy varied depending on the database. The extracted built-up areas were used for visual in- terpretation mapping purposes and served as information source for another research project. The maps visualise an urban congestion and expansion of nearly 18% of the total analysed area that had taken place in the Kizinga valley between 1982 and 2007. The same development can be ob- served in the less developed and more remote Mzinga valley between 1981 and 2002. Both areas underwent fast changes where land prices still tend to go up and an influx of people both from rural and urban areas continuously increase the density with the consequence of increasing multiple land use interests.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.