Bayesian statistics in oncology: a guide for the clinical investigator

The rise of evidence-based medicine as well as important progress in statistical methods and computational power have led to a second birth of the >200-year-old Bayesian framework. The use of Bayesian techniques, in particular in the design and interpretation of clinical trials, offers several substantial advantages over the classical statistical approach. First, in contrast to classical statistics, Bayesian analysis allows a direct statement regarding the probability that a treatment was beneficial. Second, Bayesian statistics allow the researcher to incorporate any prior information in the analysis of the experimental results. Third, Bayesian methods can efficiently handle complex statistical models, which are suited for advanced clinical trial designs. Finally, Bayesian statistics encourage a thorough consideration and presentation of the assumptions underlying an analysis, which enables the reader to fully appraise the authors' conclusions. Both Bayesian and classical statistics have their respective strengths and limitations and should be viewed as being complementary to each other; we do not attempt to make a head-to-head comparison, as this is beyond the scope of the present review. Rather, the objective of the present article is to provide a nonmathematical, reader-friendly overview of the current practice of Bayesian statistics coupled with numerous intuitive examples from the field of oncology. It is hoped that this educational review will be a useful resource to the oncologist and result in a better understanding of the scope, strengths, and limitations of the Bayesian approach.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Libre Courseware For Bayesian Decision Making

This paper describes the ideas and problems of the Edukalibre e-learning project, in which the author takes part. The basic objective of the project shares the development and exploitation of software components for web-based information systems applied to education as well as organizing of teaching material for them. The paper concerns a problem of the mathematical-oriented courseware and describes the experience in developing LaTeX-supporting online converting tool.

Conserved leucine residue in the head region of morbillivirus fusion protein regulates the large conformational change during fusion activity

Paramyxovirus cell entry is controlled by the concerted action of two viral envelope glycoproteins, the fusion (F) and the receptor-binding (H) proteins, which together with a cell surface receptor mediate plasma membrane fusion activity. The paramyxovirus F protein belongs to class I viral fusion proteins which typically contain two heptad repeat regions (HR). Particular to paramyxovirus F proteins is a long intervening sequence (IS) located between both HR domains. To investigate the role of the IS domain in regulating fusogenicity, we mutated in the canine distemper virus (CDV) F protein IS domain a highly conserved leucine residue (L372) previously reported to cause a hyperfusogenic phenotype. Beside one F mutant, which elicited significant defects in processing, transport competence, and fusogenicity, all remaining mutants were characterized by enhanced fusion activity despite normal or slightly impaired processing and cell surface targeting. Using anti-CDV-F monoclonal antibodies, modified conformational F states were detected in F mutants compared to the parental protein. Despite these structural differences, coimmunoprecipitation assays did not reveal any drastic modulation in F/H avidity of interaction. However, we found that F mutants had significantly enhanced fusogenicity at low temperature only, suggesting that they folded into conformations requiring less energy to activate fusion. Together, these data provide strong biochemical and functional evidence that the conserved leucine 372 at the base of the HRA coiled-coil of F(wt) controls the stabilization of the prefusogenic state, restraining the conformational switch and thereby preventing extensive cell-cell fusion activity.

Antiplatelets versus Anticoagulants for the Treatment of Cervical Artery Dissection: Bayesian Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE To compare the effects of antiplatelets and anticoagulants on stroke and death in patients with acute cervical artery dissection. DESIGN Systematic review with Bayesian meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES The reviewers searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to November 2012, checked reference lists, and contacted authors. STUDY SELECTION Studies were eligible if they were randomised, quasi-randomised or observational comparisons of antiplatelets and anticoagulants in patients with cervical artery dissection. DATA EXTRACTION Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Bayesian techniques were used to appropriately account for studies with scarce event data and imbalances in the size of comparison groups. DATA SYNTHESIS Thirty-seven studies (1991 patients) were included. We found no randomised trial. The primary analysis revealed a large treatment effect in favour of antiplatelets for preventing the primary composite outcome of ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage or death within the first 3 months after treatment initiation (relative risk 0.32, 95% credibility interval 0.12 to 0.63), while the degree of between-study heterogeneity was moderate (τ(2) = 0.18). In an analysis restricted to studies of higher methodological quality, the possible advantage of antiplatelets over anticoagulants was less obvious than in the main analysis (relative risk 0.73, 95% credibility interval 0.17 to 2.30). CONCLUSION In view of these results and the safety advantages, easier usage and lower cost of antiplatelets, we conclude that antiplatelets should be given precedence over anticoagulants as a first line treatment in patients with cervical artery dissection unless results of an adequately powered randomised trial suggest the opposite.

Illusions of fusions: assessing cervical vertebral fusion on lateral cephalograms, multidetector computed tomographs, and cone-beam computed tomographs

INTRODUCTION The aims of this study were to compare lateral cephalograms with other radiologic methods for diagnosing suspected fusions of the cervical spine and to validate the assessment of congenital fusions and osteoarthritic changes against the anatomic truth. METHODS Four cadaver heads were selected with fusion of vertebrae C2 and C3 seen on a lateral cephalogram. Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) and cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) were performed and assessed by 5 general radiologists and 5 oral radiologists, respectively. Vertebrae C2 and C3 were examined for osseous fusions, and the left and right facet joints were diagnosed for osteoarthritis. Subsequently, the C2 and C3 were macerated and appraised by a pathologist. Descriptive analysis was performed, and interrater agreements between and within the groups were computed. RESULTS All macerated specimens showed osteoarthritic findings of varying degrees, but no congenital bony fusion. All observers agreed that no fusion was found on MDCT or CBCT. They disagreed on the prevalence of osteoarthritic deformities (general radiologists/MDCT, 100%; oral radiologists/CBCT, 93.3%) and joint space assessment in the facet joints (kappa = 0.452). The agreement within the rater groups differed considerably (general radiologists/MDCT, kappa = 0.612; oral radiologists/CBCT, kappa = 0.240). CONCLUSIONS Lateral cephalograms do not provide dependable data to assess the cervical spine for fusions and cause false-positive detections. Both MDCT interpreted by general radiologists and CBCT interpreted by oral radiologists are reliable methods to exclude potential fusions. Degenerative osteoarthritic changes are diagnosed more accurately and consistently by general radiologists evaluating MDCT.

Comparison of the biomechanical properties of a ventral cervical intervertebral anchored fusion device with locking plate fixation applied to cadaveric canine cervical spines

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate fixation properties of a new intervertebral anchored fusion device and compare these with ventral locking plate fixation. STUDY DESIGN: In vitro biomechanical evaluation. ANIMALS: Cadaveric canine C4-C7 cervical spines (n = 9). METHODS: Cervical spines were nondestructively loaded with pure moments in a nonconstraining testing apparatus to induce flexion/extension while angular motion was measured. Range of motion (ROM) and neutral zone (NZ) were calculated for (1) intact specimens, (2) specimens after discectomy and fixation with a purpose-built intervertebral fusion cage with integrated ventral fixation, and (3) after removal of the device and fixation with a ventral locking plate. RESULTS: Both fixation techniques resulted in a decrease in ROM and NZ (P < .001) compared with the intact segments. There were no significant differences between the anchored spacer and locking plate fixation. CONCLUSION: An anchored spacer appears to provide similar biomechanical stability to that of locking plate fixation.

Structural rearrangements of the central region of the morbillivirus attachment protein stalk domain trigger F protein refolding for membrane fusion

It is unknown how receptor binding by the paramyxovirus attachment proteins (HN, H, or G) triggers the fusion (F) protein to fuse with the plasma membrane for cell entry. H-proteins of the morbillivirus genus consist of a stalk ectodomain supporting a cuboidal head; physiological oligomers consist of non-covalent dimer-of-dimers. We report here the successful engineering of intermolecular disulfide bonds within the central region (residues 91-115) of the morbillivirus H-stalk; a sub-domain that also encompasses the putative F-contacting section (residues 111-118). Remarkably, several intersubunit crosslinks abrogated membrane fusion, but bioactivity was restored under reducing conditions. This phenotype extended equally to H proteins derived from virulent and attenuated morbillivirus strains and was independent of the nature of the contacted receptor. Our data reveal that the morbillivirus H-stalk domain is composed of four tightly-packed subunits. Upon receptor binding, these subunits structurally rearrange, possibly inducing conformational changes within the central region of the stalk, which, in turn, promote fusion. Given that the fundamental architecture appears conserved among paramyxovirus attachment protein stalk domains, we predict that these motions may act as a universal paramyxovirus F-triggering mechanism.

An urn-based Bayesian block bootstrap

Block bootstrap has been introduced in the literature for resampling dependent data, i.e. stationary processes. One of the main assumptions in block bootstrapping is that the blocks of observations are exchangeable, i.e. their joint distribution is immune to permutations. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian approach to block bootstrapping, starting from the construction of exchangeable blocks. Our sampling mechanism is based on a particular class of reinforced urn processes

Increasing the Antitumor Effect of an EpCAM-Targeting Fusion Toxin by Facile Click PEGylation

Fusion toxins used for cancer-related therapy have demonstrated short circulation half-lives, which impairs tumor localization and, hence, efficacy. Here, we demonstrate that the pharmacokinetics of a fusion toxin composed of a designed ankyrin repeat protein (DARPin) and domain I–truncated Pseudomonas Exotoxin A (PE40/ETA″) can be significantly improved by facile bioorthogonal conjugation with a polyethylene glycol (PEG) polymer at a unique position. Fusion of the anti-EpCAM DARPin Ec1 to ETA″ and expression in methionine-auxotrophic E. coli enabled introduction of the nonnatural amino acid azidohomoalanine (Aha) at position 1 for strain-promoted click PEGylation. PEGylated Ec1-ETA″ was characterized by detailed biochemical analysis, and its potential for tumor targeting was assessed using carcinoma cell lines of various histotypes in vitro, and subcutaneous and orthotopic tumor xenografts in vivo. The mild click reaction resulted in a well-defined mono-PEGylated product, which could be readily purified to homogeneity. Despite an increased hydrodynamic radius resulting from the polymer, the fusion toxin demonstrated high EpCAM-binding activity and retained cytotoxicity in the femtomolar range. Pharmacologic analysis in mice unveiled an almost 6-fold increase in the elimination half-life (14 vs. 82 minutes) and a more than 7-fold increase in the area under the curve (AUC) compared with non-PEGylated Ec1-ETA″, which directly translated in increased and longer-lasting effects on established tumor xenografts. Our data underline the great potential of combining the inherent advantages of the DARPin format with bioorthogonal click chemistry to overcome the limitations of engineering fusion toxins with enhanced efficacy for cancer-related therapy.