Note on scope and functions of the Economic Commission for Latin America

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An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

Métodos para comparação de curvas de crescimento

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Effect of different exercise programs on the psychological and cognitive functions of people with Parkinson's disease

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of different exercise programs on the psychological and cognitive functions in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Forty-five patients with PD participated in the study. The participants were randomized in three intervention programs: Group-1 (n=15, cognitive-activities), Group-2 (n=15, multimodal exercise) and Group-3 (n=15, exercises for posture and gait). The clinical, psychological and cognitive functions were assessed before and after 4 months of intervention. Univariate analysis did not reveal significant interactions between groups and time (p>0.05). However, univariate analysis for time revealed differences in stress level and memory. Participants showed less physical stress (p<0.01) and overall stress (p < 0.04) and higher performance in episodic declarative memory (p < 0.001) after exercise. These findings suggest that group work with motor or non-motor activities can improve cognitive and psychological functions of patients with PD.

Stieltjes functions and discrete classical orthogonal polynomials

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comments on correlation functions of large spin operators and null polygonal Wilson loops

We discuss the relation between correlation functions of twist-two large spin operators and expectation values of Wilson loops along light-like trajectories. After presenting some heuristic field theoretical arguments suggesting this relation, we compute the divergent part of the correlator in the limit of large 't Hooft coupling and large spins, using a semi-classical world-sheet which asymptotically looks like a GKP rotating string. We show this diverges as expected from the expectation value of a null Wilson loop, namely, as (ln mu(-2))(2). mu being a cut-off of the theory. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benefits of Multimodal Exercise Intervention for Postural Control and Frontal Cognitive Functions in Individuals with Alzheimer's Disease: A Controlled Trial

Objective To verify the effects of a systematized multimodal exercise intervention program on frontal cognitive function, postural control, and functional capacity components of individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD).DesignNonrandomized controlled trial with pre- and posttraining tests in a training group and a control group.SettingKinesiotherapy program for seniors with AD, SAo Paulo State University.ParticipantsConvenience sample of older adults with AD (n=30) were assigned to a training (n=14; aged 78.67.1) and a control (n=16; aged 77.06.3) group.InterventionThe intervention program was structured with the aim of simultaneously promoting better balance and frontal cognitive capacity. The participants attended a 1-hour session three times a week for 16weeks, whereas the control group did not participate in any activity during the same period.MeasurementsFrontal cognitive function was evaluated using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, the Clock Drawing Test, the Frontal Assessment Battery, and the Symbol Search Subtest. Postural control (center of pressure area) was analyzed under four dual-task conditions. Functional capacity components were analyzed using the Timed Up and Go Test, the 30-second sit-to-stand test, the sit-and-reach test, and the Berg Functional Balance Scale.ResultsIntervention group participants showed a significant increase in frontal cognitive function (P<.001, partial (2)=0.838), with less body sway (P=.04, partial (2)=0.04) during the dual tasks, and greater functional capacity (P=.001, partial (2)=0.676) after the 16-week period.ConclusionIntervention participants performed better on dual-task activities and had better postural balance and greater functional capacity than controls.

Measure Functional Differential Equations in the Space of Functions of Bounded Variation

We establish general conditions for the unique solvability of nonlinear measure functional differential equations in terms of properties of suitable linear majorants.

Testes of Astyanax altiparanae: The Sertoli cell functions in a semicystic spermatogenesis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

One-sided and two-sided Green's functions

We discuss the one-sided Green's function, associated with an initial value problem and the two-sided Green's function related to a boundary value problem. We present a specific calculation associated with a differential equation with constant coefficients. For both problems, we also present the Laplace integral transform as another methodology to calculate these Green's functions and conclude which is the most convenient one. An incursion in the so-called fractional Green's function is also presented. As an example, we discuss the isotropic harmonic oscillator.

A new sampling strategy to reduce the effect of autocorrelation on a control chart

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Three-point functions and su(1 vertical bar 1) spin chains

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)