795 resultados para time-varying AR models
Resumo:
Cryptosporidium parvum ist ein intrazellulärer protozoischer Darmparasit (Apikomplexa), der weltweit zu den bedeutendsten Erregern von Diarrhöen beim Menschen und einer Reihe von Nutztieren zählt. Vor allem immunkompromittierte Personen wie zum Beispiel AIDS-Patienten erleiden schwere, chronische bis lebensbedrohende Erkrankungen. Da nach wie vor keine effektive Therapie gegen eine Kryptosporidiose in Form eines spezifisch wirkenden Chemotherapeutikums oder einer Vakzine existiert, ist es notwendig, die Immunantwort des Wirtes gegen den Parasiten und dessen Bindung, Invasion und die intrazelluläre Entwicklung in den Epithelzellen eingehend zu studieren, um neue Ansatzpunkte zu entwickeln. Wohingegen Menschen zeitlebens suszeptibel für eine Infektion mit C. parvum sind, entwickeln Mäuse eine natürliche Resistenz und können als adulte Tiere nicht mehr infiziert werden. Daher sind Mausmodelle der Kryptosporidiose auf neonatale oder immunsupprimierte und immundefiziente adulte Mäuse beschränkt. Bei der Überwindung einer C. parvum-Infektion sind Effektoren der natürlichen und adaptiven Immunität beteiligt. Die zentrale Rolle spielen CD4+-T-Zellen, sowie Interferon-gamma und Interleukin-12. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden Infektionen in IFN-gamma (GKO)- und IL-12 p40 (IL12KO)-Knockout-Mäusen (C57BL/6) etabliert, für die bereits gezeigt wurde, dass sie eine Suszeptibilität gegenüber einer Erstinfektion besitzen. Erstmals wurden die beiden Infektionsmodelle parallel unter denselben Bedingungen analysiert, um Rückschlüsse auf die Funktion und die Bedeutung der beiden Th1-Zytokine IFN-gamma und IL-12 bei der Auseinandersetzung mit dem Parasiten und der Überwindung einer Infektion ziehen zu können. Es wurden deutliche Unterschiede im Infektionsverlauf, bei der Höhe und Dauer der Parasitenausscheidung und der induzierten systemischen und mukosalen Antikörperantwort beobachtet. Zum ersten Mal konnte gezeigt werden, dass neben IL12KO auch GKO in der Lage sind, eine erste Infektion zu überwinden und eine Resistenz gegenüber einer erneuten Konfrontation mit dem Parasiten zu entwickeln. Alle Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Etablierung einer protektiven Immunität gegen eine Kryptosporidiose generell unabhängig von der Anwesenheit der Zytokine IFN-gamma und IL-12 ist, der Verlust von IFN-gamma jedoch schwerer wiegt. Bei GKO-Mäusen persistierte der Parasit in Form einer niedriggradigen chronischen Infektion. Die beiden Infektionsmodelle stellten sich als ideales System für die Etablierung einer effektiven Immunisierungsstrategie heraus. Intranasale Immunisierungen, welche neben einer systemischen auch eine mukosale Immunantwort induzieren können, schienen einen richtigen Ansatz darzustellen. Intraperitoneale und subkutane Immunisierungen führten zwar zur Ausbildung einer starken spezifischen IgG-Antwort im Serum, diese war jedoch nicht in der Lage, einen Schutz vor einer Infektion zu vermitteln. Neben den in vivo Untersuchungen wurde des Weiteren auch die intrazelluläre Entwicklung von C. parvum in einem in vitro Kultursystem verfolgt. Zum ersten Mal wurde die Genexpression von vier Oberflächenproteinen der invasiven Zoitenstadien und eines Oozystenwandproteins parallel durch RT-PCR analysiert. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass alle untersuchten Gene während der intrazellulären Entwicklung differentiell exprimiert werden, was eine unterschiedliche Funktion der Proteine während des Entwicklungszyklus nahe legt. Das Expressionsmuster der verschiedenen Gene charakterisiert bestimmte Abschnitte innerhalb des Entwicklungszyklus. Dabei wurden Marker für die Invasion (CP17) sowie für die asexuelle (GP900) und sexuelle Replikation (COWP) identifiziert.
Resumo:
E’ mostrata l’analisi e la modellazione di dati termocronologici di bassa temperatura da due regioni Alpine: il Sempione ed il Brennero. Le faglie distensive presenti bordano settori crostali profondi appartenenti al dominio penninico: il duomo metamorfico Lepontino al Sempione e la finestra dei Tauri al Brennero. I dati utilizzati sono FT e (U-Th)/He su apatite. Per il Sempione i dati provengono dalla bibliografia; per il Brennero si è provveduto ad un nuovo campionamento, sia in superficie che in sotterraneo. Gli attuali lavori per la galleria di base del Brennero (BBT), hanno consentito, per la prima volta, di raccogliere dati di FT e (U-Th)/He in apatite in sottosuolo per la finestra dei Tauri occidentale. Le analisi sono state effettuate tramite un codice a elementi finiti, Pecube, risolvente l’equazione di diffusione del calore per una topografia evolvente nel tempo. Il codice è stato modificato per tener conto dei dati sotterranei. L’inversione dei dati è stata effettuata usando il Neighbourhood Algorithm (NA), per ottenere il più plausibile scenario di evoluzione morfotettonico. I risultati ottenuti per il Sempione mostrano: ipotetica evoluzione dello stile tettonico della faglia del Sempione da rolling hinge a low angle detachment a 6.5 Ma e la cessazione dell’attività a 3 Ma; costruzione del rilievo fino a 5.5 Ma, smantellamento da 5.5 Ma ad oggi, in coincidenza dei cambiamenti climatici Messiniani e relativi all’inizio delle maggiori glaciazioni; incremento dell’esumazione da 0–0.6 mm/anno a 0.6–1.2 mm/anno a 2.4 Ma nell’emisfero settentrionale. I risultati al Brennero mostrano: maggiore attività tettonica della faglia del Brennero (1.3 mm/anno), maggiore attività esumativa (1–2 mm/anno) prima dei 10 Ma; crollo dell’attività della faglia del Brennero fra 10 Ma e oggi (0.1 mm/anno) e dell’attività esumativa nello stesso periodo (0.1–0.3 mm/anno); nessun aumento del tasso esumativo o variazioni topografiche negli ultimi 5 Ma.
Resumo:
The research activity characterizing the present thesis was mainly centered on the design, development and validation of methodologies for the estimation of stationary and time-varying connectivity between different regions of the human brain during specific complex cognitive tasks. Such activity involved two main aspects: i) the development of a stable, consistent and reproducible procedure for functional connectivity estimation with a high impact on neuroscience field and ii) its application to real data from healthy volunteers eliciting specific cognitive processes (attention and memory). In particular the methodological issues addressed in the present thesis consisted in finding out an approach to be applied in neuroscience field able to: i) include all the cerebral sources in connectivity estimation process; ii) to accurately describe the temporal evolution of connectivity networks; iii) to assess the significance of connectivity patterns; iv) to consistently describe relevant properties of brain networks. The advancement provided in this thesis allowed finding out quantifiable descriptors of cognitive processes during a high resolution EEG experiment involving subjects performing complex cognitive tasks.
Resumo:
The topic of this thesis is the feedback stabilization of the attitude of magnetically actuated spacecraft. The use of magnetic coils is an attractive solution for the generation of control torques on small satellites flying inclined low Earth orbits, since magnetic control systems are characterized by reduced weight and cost, higher reliability, and require less power with respect to other kinds of actuators. At the same time, the possibility of smooth modulation of control torques reduces coupling of the attitude control system with flexible modes, thus preserving pointing precision with respect to the case when pulse-modulated thrusters are used. The principle based on the interaction between the Earth's magnetic field and the magnetic field generated by the set of coils introduces an inherent nonlinearity, because control torques can be delivered only in a plane that is orthogonal to the direction of the geomagnetic field vector. In other words, the system is underactuated, because the rotational degrees of freedom of the spacecraft, modeled as a rigid body, exceed the number of independent control actions. The solution of the control issue for underactuated spacecraft is also interesting in the case of actuator failure, e.g. after the loss of a reaction-wheel in a three-axes stabilized spacecraft with no redundancy. The application of well known control strategies is no longer possible in this case for both regulation and tracking, so that new methods have been suggested for tackling this particular problem. The main contribution of this thesis is to propose continuous time-varying controllers that globally stabilize the attitude of a spacecraft, when magneto-torquers alone are used and when a momentum-wheel supports magnetic control in order to overcome the inherent underactuation. A kinematic maneuver planning scheme, stability analyses, and detailed simulation results are also provided, with new theoretical developments and particular attention toward application considerations.
Resumo:
This thesis gives an overview of the history of gold per se, of gold as an investment good and offers some institutional details about gold and other precious metal markets. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of gold as a store of value and hedge against negative market movements in turbulent times. I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress by employing instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher than average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced during periods of extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, during the Lehman default (October 2008). A further goal of this thesis is to investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric precious metal behavior conditioned to stock market performance and provide empirical evidence about the contribution of gold to a portfolio’s systematic skewness and kurtosis. I find that gold has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left. Moreover, gold shows low cokurtosis with the market returns during volatile periods. I therefore show that gold is a desirable investment good to risk averse investors, since it tends to decrease the probability of experiencing extreme bad outcomes, and the magnitude of losses in case such events occur. Gold thus bears very important and under-researched characteristics as an asset class per se, which this thesis contributed to address and unveil.
Resumo:
The development of next generation microwave technology for backhauling systems is driven by an increasing capacity demand. In order to provide higher data rates and throughputs over a point-to-point link, a cost-effective performance improvement is enabled by an enhanced energy-efficiency of the transmit power amplification stage, whereas a combination of spectrally efficient modulation formats and wider bandwidths is supported by amplifiers that fulfil strict constraints in terms of linearity. An optimal trade-off between these conflicting requirements can be achieved by resorting to flexible digital signal processing techniques at baseband. In such a scenario, the adaptive digital pre-distortion is a well-known linearization method, that comes up to be a potentially widely-used solution since it can be easily integrated into base stations. Its operation can effectively compensate for the inter-modulation distortion introduced by the power amplifier, keeping up with the frequency-dependent time-varying behaviour of the relative nonlinear characteristic. In particular, the impact of the memory effects become more relevant and their equalisation become more challenging as the input discrete signal feature a wider bandwidth and a faster envelope to pre-distort. This thesis project involves the research, design and simulation a pre-distorter implementation at RTL based on a novel polyphase architecture, which makes it capable of operating over very wideband signals at a sampling rate that complies with the actual available clock speed of current digital devices. The motivation behind this structure is to carry out a feasible pre-distortion for the multi-band spectrally efficient complex signals carrying multiple channels that are going to be transmitted in near future high capacity and reliability microwave backhaul links.
Resumo:
Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiopulmonary diseases, limited evidence exists on the prognostic value of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We sought to examine the associations between anaemia and mortality and length of hospital stay in patients with PE. We evaluated 14,276 patients with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 hospitals in Pennsylvania, USA. We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the association between anaemia at the time of presentation and 30-day mortality and discrete-time logistic hazard models to assess the association between anaemia and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for patient (age, gender, race, insurance type, clinical and laboratory variables) and hospital (region, size, teaching status) factors. Anaemia was present in 38.7% of patients at admission. Patients with anaemia had a higher 30-day mortality (13.7% vs. 6.3%; p <0.001) and a longer length of stay (geometric mean, 6.9 vs. 6.6 days; p <0.001) compared to patients without anaemia. In multivariable analyses, anaemia remained associated with an increased odds of death (OR 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.06) and a decreased odds of discharge (OR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.89). Anaemia is very common in patients presenting with PE and is independently associated with an increased short-term mortality and length of stay.
Resumo:
This paper presents parallel recursive algorithms for the computation of the inverse discrete Legendre transform (DPT) and the inverse discrete Laguerre transform (IDLT). These recursive algorithms are derived using Clenshaw's recurrence formula, and they are implemented with a set of parallel digital filters with time-varying coefficients.
Resumo:
A general approach is presented for implementing discrete transforms as a set of first-order or second-order recursive digital filters. Clenshaw's recurrence formulae are used to formulate the second-order filters. The resulting structure is suitable for efficient implementation of discrete transforms in VLSI or FPGA circuits. The general approach is applied to the discrete Legendre transform as an illustration.
Resumo:
The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.
Resumo:
This study examines predictors of sickness absence in patients presenting to a health practitioner with acute/ subacute low back pain (LBP). Aims of this study were to identify baseline-variables that detect patients with a new LBP episode at risk of sickness absence and to identify prognostic models for sickness absence at different time points after initial presentation. Prospective cohort study investigating 310 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a new episode of LBP at baseline, three-, six-, twelve-week and six-month follow-up, addressing work-related, psychological and biomedical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify baseline-predictors of sickness absence at different time points. Prognostic models comprised 'job control', 'depression' and 'functional limitation' as predictive baseline-factors of sickness absence at three and six-week follow-up with 'job control' being the best single predictor (OR 0.47; 95%CI 0.26-0.87). The six-week model explained 47% of variance of sickness absence at six-week follow-up (p<0.001). The prediction of sickness absence beyond six-weeks is limited, and health practitioners should re-assess patients at six weeks, especially if they have previously been identified as at risk of sickness absence. This would allow timely intervention with measures designed to reduce the likelihood of prolonged sickness absence.
Resumo:
Using a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of different glacial boundary conditions on precipitation and atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic region is investigated. Six 30-yr time slice experiments of the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 thousand years before the present (ka BP) and of a less pronounced glacial state – the Middle Weichselian (65 ka BP) – are compared to analyse the sensitivity to changes in the ice sheet distribution, in the radiative forcing and in the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice, which are taken from a lower-resolved, but fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The strongest differences are found for simulations with different heights of the Laurentide ice sheet. A high surface elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet leads to a southward displacement of the jet stream and the storm track in the North Atlantic region. These changes in the atmospheric dynamics generate a band of increased precipitation in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic to southern Europe in winter, while the precipitation pattern in summer is only marginally affected. The impact of the radiative forcing differences between the two glacial periods and of the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice are of second order importance compared to the one of the Laurentide ice sheet. They affect the atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in a similar but less pronounced manner compared with the topographic changes.
Resumo:
This doctoral thesis presents the experimental results along with a suitable synthesis with computational/theoretical results towards development of a reliable heat transfer correlation for a specific annular condensation flow regime inside a vertical tube. For fully condensing flows of pure vapor (FC-72) inside a vertical cylindrical tube of 6.6 mm diameter and 0.7 m length, the experimental measurements are shown to yield values of average heat transfer co-efficient, and approximate length of full condensation. The experimental conditions cover: mass flux G over a range of 2.9 kg/m2-s ≤ G ≤ 87.7 kg/m2-s, temperature difference ∆T (saturation temperature at the inlet pressure minus the mean condensing surface temperature) of 5 ºC to 45 ºC, and cases for which the length of full condensation xFC is in the range of 0 < xFC < 0.7 m. The range of flow conditions over which there is good agreement (within 15%) with the theory and its modeling assumptions has been identified. Additionally, the ranges of flow conditions for which there are significant discrepancies (between 15 -30% and greater than 30%) with theory have also been identified. The paper also refers to a brief set of key experimental results with regard to sensitivity of the flow to time-varying or quasi-steady (i.e. steady in the mean) impositions of pressure at both the inlet and the outlet. The experimental results support the updated theoretical/computational results that gravity dominated condensing flows do not allow such elliptic impositions.
Resumo:
The use of conventional orifice-plate meter is typically restricted to measurements of steady flows. This study proposes a new and effective computational-experimental approach for measuring the time-varying (but steady-in-the-mean) nature of turbulent pulsatile gas flows. Low Mach number (effectively constant density) steady-in-the-mean gas flows with large amplitude fluctuations (whose highest significant frequency is characterized by the value fF) are termed pulsatile if the fluctuations have a direct correlation with the time-varying signature of the imposed dynamic pressure difference and, furthermore, they have fluctuation amplitudes that are significantly larger than those associated with turbulence or random acoustic wave signatures. The experimental aspect of the proposed calibration approach is based on use of Coriolis-meters (whose oscillating arm frequency fcoriolis >> fF) which are capable of effectively measuring the mean flow rate of the pulsatile flows. Together with the experimental measurements of the mean mass flow rate of these pulsatile flows, the computational approach presented here is shown to be effective in converting the dynamic pressure difference signal into the desired dynamic flow rate signal. The proposed approach is reliable because the time-varying flow rate predictions obtained for two different orifice-plate meters exhibit the approximately same qualitative, dominant features of the pulsatile flow.
Resumo:
Electrical Power Assisted Steering system (EPAS) will likely be used on future automotive power steering systems. The sinusoidal brushless DC (BLDC) motor has been identified as one of the most suitable actuators for the EPAS application. Motor characteristic variations, which can be indicated by variations of the motor parameters such as the coil resistance and the torque constant, directly impart inaccuracies in the control scheme based on the nominal values of parameters and thus the whole system performance suffers. The motor controller must address the time-varying motor characteristics problem and maintain the performance in its long service life. In this dissertation, four adaptive control algorithms for brushless DC (BLDC) motors are explored. The first algorithm engages a simplified inverse dq-coordinate dynamics controller and solves for the parameter errors with the q-axis current (iq) feedback from several past sampling steps. The controller parameter values are updated by slow integration of the parameter errors. Improvement such as dynamic approximation, speed approximation and Gram-Schmidt orthonormalization are discussed for better estimation performance. The second algorithm is proposed to use both the d-axis current (id) and the q-axis current (iq) feedback for parameter estimation since id always accompanies iq. Stochastic conditions for unbiased estimation are shown through Monte Carlo simulations. Study of the first two adaptive algorithms indicates that the parameter estimation performance can be achieved by using more history data. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), a representative recursive estimation algorithm, is then investigated for the BLDC motor application. Simulation results validated the superior estimation performance with the EKF. However, the computation complexity and stability may be barriers for practical implementation of the EKF. The fourth algorithm is a model reference adaptive control (MRAC) that utilizes the desired motor characteristics as a reference model. Its stability is guaranteed by Lyapunov’s direct method. Simulation shows superior performance in terms of the convergence speed and current tracking. These algorithms are compared in closed loop simulation with an EPAS model and a motor speed control application. The MRAC is identified as the most promising candidate controller because of its combination of superior performance and low computational complexity. A BLDC motor controller developed with the dq-coordinate model cannot be implemented without several supplemental functions such as the coordinate transformation and a DC-to-AC current encoding scheme. A quasi-physical BLDC motor model is developed to study the practical implementation issues of the dq-coordinate control strategy, such as the initialization and rotor angle transducer resolution. This model can also be beneficial during first stage development in automotive BLDC motor applications.