922 resultados para risky asset
Resumo:
The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with the pattern of risky health behavior (PRHB) among adolescent students in Cartagena, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate PRHB in a random cluster sample of students from middle and high schools. The associations were adjusted by logistic regression. A total of 2,625 students participated in this research, with ages from 10 to 20 years, mean=13.8 years (SD=2.0), and 54.3% were women. A total of 332 students reported PRHB (12.7%, 95%CI 11.4–14.0). Age over 15 years (OR=2.19, 95%CI 1.72–2.79), not being heterosexual (OR=1.98, 95%CI 1.36-2.87), poor/mediocre academic performance (OR=1.87, 95%CI 1.47–2.38), family dysfunction (OR=1.78, 95%CI 1.40–2.28) and male gender (OR=1.58, 95%CI 1.24–2.01) were associated with PRHB. One in every eight students presented a PRHB. It is important to pay greater attention to students who are over 15 years of age, male, not heterosexual, with a poor/mediocre academic performance and a dysfunctional family.
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Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.
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Using data from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (NKPS) and combining a quantitative approach and a qualitative approach (N = 8,148 and n = 43, respectively), this study investigates the mechanisms associated with a lack of acceptance by one's family. From the total NKPS sample, 12.1% did not feel (entirely) accepted by their family. The authors hypothesized that people may not feel accepted by their family when they are "difficult," for example, by exhibiting personal problems; another reason might be that they are "different," for instance, because they have made nontraditional life course transitions or differ from their parents in educational level or religious preference. Both quantitative and qualitative results confirm the first hypothesis rather than the second. Qualitative results revealed a gender difference in the mechanisms associated with a lack of acceptance by one's family as well as differences in the resilience of those who had had a difficult family background.
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Explaining the evolution of sociality is challenging because social individuals face disadvantages that must be balanced by intrinsic benefits of living in a group. One potential route towards the evolution of sociality may emerge from the avoidance of dispersal, which can be risky in some environments. Although early studies found that local competition may cancel the benefits of cooperation in viscous populations, subsequent studies have identified conditions, such as the presence of kin recognition or specific demographic conditions, under which altruism will still spread. Most of these studies assume that the costs of cooperating outweigh the direct benefits (strong altruism). In nature, however, many organisms gain synergistic benefits from group living, which may counterbalance even costly altruistic behaviours. Here, we use an individual based model to investigate how dispersal and social behaviour co-evolve when social behaviours result in synergistic benefits that counterbalance the relative cost of altruism to a greater extent than assumed in previous models. When the cost of cooperation is high, selection for sociality responds strongly to the cost of dispersal. In particular, cooperation can begin to spread in a population when higher cooperation levels become correlated with lower dispersal tendencies within individuals. In contrast, less costly social behaviours are less sensitive to the cost of dispersal. In line with previous studies, we find that mechanisms of global population control also affect this relationship: when whole patches (groups) go extinct each generation, selection favours a relatively high dispersal propensity, and social behaviours evolve only when they are not very costly. If random individuals within groups experience mortality each generation to maintain a global carrying capacity, on the other hand, social behaviours spread and dispersal is reduced, even when the latter is not costly.
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The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and factors associated with the occurrence of incidents related to medication, registered in the medical records of patients admitted to a Surgical Clinic, in 2010. This is a cross-sectional study, conducted at a university hospital, with a sample of 735 hospitalizations. Was performed the categorization of types of incidents, multivariate analysis of regression logistic and calculated the prevalence. The prevalence of drug-related incidents was estimated at 48.0% and were identified, as factors related to the occurrence of these incidents: length of hospitalization more than four days, prescribed three or more medications per day and realization of surgery intervention. It is expected to have contributed for the professionals and area managers can identify risky situations and rethink their actions.
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À medida que oportunidades de emprego para toda a vida escasseiam, altas taxas de desemprego têm despertado o interesse por empreendedorismo. A salvação passa a ser a empregabilidade, sendo a educação empreendedora apontada como uma das áreas chave para fazer com que todos descubram potencialidades inovadoras e criativas despertando comportamentos empreendedores. A inserção dos jovens no mercado de trabalho é neste momento um dos maiores problemas da ilha de São Vicente com 23,3% de desempregados numa população maioritariamente jovem (65,7%) segundo INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística). É neste contexto marcado por instabilidade e incerteza, que o Centro de Juventude de São Vicente tem vindo a promover a formação profissional oferecendo cursos de curta duração visando a inserção sócio económica de jovens carenciados e em situação de risco. Com base num suporte teórico que revela a possibilidade de desenvolver o espírito empreendedor através do ensino, optou-se pela metodologia de estudo de caso para analisar de que forma o Centro de Juventude de São Vicente contribui na formação para a empregabilidade e/ou no despertar do espírito empreendedor. Os resultados revelam que o Centro está dando os primeiros passos nesse sentido e que terá um papel importante no estímulo e incentivo ao trabalho por conta própria através da formação profissional, desde que em estreita articulação com o IEFP (Instituto do Emprego e Formação Profissional) e o mercado de trabalho. Visando uma mudança de mentalidade tem propiciado aos jovens um contexto de estímulo à iniciativa sobretudo através do apoio psicológico e na busca de financiamento. While opportunities for lifetime jobs are decreasing, high unemployment rates have aroused the interest in entrepreneurship. Employability will be the solution, being entrepreneurial education pointed out as one of the key factors in finding out innovative and creative potentialities as well as in stimulating entrepreneurial behaviours. Inserting young people in the labour market is, at present, one of the biggest problems in S.Vicente, an island with 23,3% of unemployed in a population mostly constituted by young people (65,7%), according to INE (National Institute of Statistics). In this context characterised by instability and uncertainty, the Youth Centre in S.Vicente has been promoting professional training through short courses aimed at socioeconomic insertion of young people in vulnerable and risky situations. Based on a theoretical support which points out the possibility of developing entrepreneurial spirit through education, the case study methodology was selected in order to analyse how the Youth Centre contributes through its training courses to employability and/or entrepreneurial spirit. The results obtained indicate that the Centre is taking its first steps in this direction and will play an important role in encouraging self-employment, through professional training. This has to be carried out in close relationship with both IEFP (Institute of Employment and Professional Training) and the labour market. With a view to changing mentalities, the Centre has been providing young people with a context capable of stimulating initiative, especially by supplying psychological support and helping them find financing sources.
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and factors associated with the occurrence of incidents related to medication, registered in the medical records of patients admitted to a Surgical Clinic, in 2010. This is a cross-sectional study, conducted at a university hospital, with a sample of 735 hospitalizations. Was performed the categorization of types of incidents, multivariate analysis of regression logistic and calculated the prevalence. The prevalence of drug-related incidents was estimated at 48.0% and were identified, as factors related to the occurrence of these incidents: length of hospitalization more than four days, prescribed three or more medications per day and realization of surgery intervention. It is expected to have contributed for the professionals and area managers can identify risky situations and rethink their actions.
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AbstractOBJECTIVETo report the nurse's experience of inclusion in interdisciplinary clinical study about technological innovation, involving people with spinal cord injury.METHODDescriptive experience report. The empirical support was based on notes about perspectives and practice of clinical research, with a multi-professional nursing, physical education, physiotherapy and engineering staff.RESULTThe qualification includes the elaboration of the document for the Ethics Committee, familiarization among the members of staff and with the studied topic, and also an immersion into English. The nurse's knowledge gave support to the uptake of participants and time adequacy for data collection, preparation and assistance of the participants during the intervention and after collection. Nursing theories and processes have contributed to reveal risky diagnoses and the plan of care. It was the nurse's role to monitor the risk of overlapping methodological strictness to the human aspect. The skills for the clinical research must be the object of learning, including students in multidisciplinary researches.CONCLUSIONTo qualify the nurse for clinical research and to potentialize its caregiver essence, some changes are needed in the educational system, professional behavior, attitude and educational assistance.
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BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco is of increasing interest to public health researchers and policy makers. This study aims to measure prevalence of smokeless tobacco use (nasal dry snuff, snus and chewing tobacco) among young Swiss men, and to describe its correlates. METHODS: We invited 13 245 young men to participate in this survey on socio-economic and substance use data. Response rate was 45.2%. We included 5720 participants. Descriptive statistics and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression were performed. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 19.5 years. Self-reported use once a month or more often was 8% for nasal dry snuff, 3% for snus and negligible for chewing tobacco. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, the odds for nasal dry snuff use increased in non daily smokers [odds ratio (OR) 2.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.90-3.05], compared with non smokers, participants reporting risky weekly drinking volume (OR 3.93, 95% CI 1.86-8.32), compared with abstinents, and binge drinking once a month or more often (OR 7.41, 95% CI 4.11-13.38), compared with never binge drinking. Nasal dry snuff use was positively associated with higher BMI, average or above family income and German language, compared with French, and negatively associated with academic higher education, compared with non higher education, and occasional cannabis use, compared with no cannabis use. Correlates of snus were similar to those of nasal dry snuff. CONCLUSION: One in 12 young Swiss men use nasal dry snuff and 3% use snus. Consumption of smokeless tobacco is associated with a cluster of other risky behaviours, especially binge drinking.
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This paper explores biases in the elicitation of utilities under risk and the contribution that generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these biases. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studies, prospect theory was most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expected utility was in comparisons between a riskless and a risky prospect(riskless-risk methods). We observed no improvement over expected utility in comparisons between two risky prospects (risk-risk methods). An explanation why we found no improvement of prospect theory over expected utility in risk-risk methods may be that there was less overweighting of small probabilities in our study than has commonly been observed.
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Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often combined with substantial (i) asset accumulation by retirement, and (ii) low-rate liquid assets. Hyperbolic discounting can resolve only the former puzzle (Laibson et al., 2003). Bertaut and Haliassos (2002) proposed an 'accountant-shopper'framework for the latter. The current paper builds, solves, and simulates a fully-specified accountant-shopper model, to show that this framework canactually generate both types of co-existence, as well as target credit card utilization rates consistent with Gross and Souleles (2002). The benchmark model is compared to setups without self-control problems, with alternative mechanisms, and with impatient but fully rational shoppers.
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Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often combined with substantial (i) asset accumulation by retirement, and (ii) low-rate liquid assets. Hyperbolic discounting can resolve only the former puzzle (Laibson et al., 2003). Bertaut and Haliassos (2002) proposed an 'accountant-shopper'framework for the latter. The current paper builds, solves, and simulates a fully-specified accountant-shopper model, to show that this framework canactually generate both types of co-existence, as well as target credit card utilization rates consistent with Gross and Souleles (2002). The benchmark model is compared to setups without self-control problems, with alternative mechanisms, and with impatient but fully rational shoppers.
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Adopting a simplistic view of Coase (1960), most economic analyses of property rightsdisregard both the key advantage that legal property rights (that is, in rem rights) provide torightholders in terms of enhanced enforcement, and the difficulties they pose to acquirers interms of information asymmetry about legal title. Consequently, these analyses tend to overstatethe role of "private ordering" and disregard the two key elements of property law: first, theessential conflict between property (that is, in rem) enforcement and transaction costs; and,second, the institutional solutions created to overcome it, mainly contractual registries capable ofmaking truly impersonal (that is, asset-based) trade viable when previous relevant transactionson the same assets are not verifiable by judges. This paper fills this gap by reinterpreting bothelements within the Coasean framework and thus redrawing the institutional foundations of bothproperty and corporate contracting.
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Summary Throughout my thesis, I elaborate on how real and financing frictions affect corporate decision making under uncertainty, and I explore how firms time their investment and financing decisions given such frictions. While the macroeconomics literature has focused on the impact of real frictions on investment decisions assuming all equity financed firms, the financial economics literature has mainly focused on the study of financing frictions. My thesis therefore assesses the join interaction of real and financing frictions in firms' dynamic investment and financing decisions. My work provides a rationale for the documented poor empirical performance of neoclassical investment models based on the joint effect of real and financing frictions on investment. A major observation relies in how the infrequency of corporate decisions may affect standard empirical tests. My thesis suggests that the book to market sorts commonly used in the empirical asset pricing literature have economic content, as they control for the lumpiness in firms' optimal investment policies. My work also elaborates on the effects of asymmetric information and strategic interaction on firms' investment and financing decisions. I study how firms time their decision to raise public equity when outside investors lack information about their future investment prospects. I derive areal-options model that predicts either cold or hot markets for new stock issues conditional on adverse selection, and I provide a rational approach to study jointly the market timing of corporate decisions and announcement effects in stock returns. My doctoral dissertation therefore contributes to our understanding of how under real and financing frictions may bias standard empirical tests, elaborates on how adverse selection may induce hot and cold markets in new issues' markets, and suggests how the underlying economic behaviour of firms may induce alternative patterns in stock prices.
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An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.