A Model-to-model analysis of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma: genetic algorithms vs. evolutionary dynamics

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the analytical model. Our main conclusion is that analytical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while on the one hand computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenar

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs137 activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.

Schistosomiasis mansoni: immunodiagnosis aspects and search for an immunological marker related to therapeutic efficacy

The recent findings on immunodiagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni have shown that purified Schistosoma mansoni antigens do not provide maximum positivity. Therefore, the authors suggest the use of semi-purified antigens for diagnostic purposes. So far, no serological marker for cured patients as shown by negative stool examination was found. However, a tendency of IgG antibody titre decrease was observed, when egg antigen was used.

Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

Evidence for transcript networks composed of chimeric RNAs in human cells.

The classic organization of a gene structure has followed the Jacob and Monod bacterial gene model proposed more than 50 years ago. Since then, empirical determinations of the complexity of the transcriptomes found in yeast to human has blurred the definition and physical boundaries of genes. Using multiple analysis approaches we have characterized individual gene boundaries mapping on human chromosomes 21 and 22. Analyses of the locations of the 5' and 3' transcriptional termini of 492 protein coding genes revealed that for 85% of these genes the boundaries extend beyond the current annotated termini, most often connecting with exons of transcripts from other well annotated genes. The biological and evolutionary importance of these chimeric transcripts is underscored by (1) the non-random interconnections of genes involved, (2) the greater phylogenetic depth of the genes involved in many chimeric interactions, (3) the coordination of the expression of connected genes and (4) the close in vivo and three dimensional proximity of the genomic regions being transcribed and contributing to parts of the chimeric RNAs. The non-random nature of the connection of the genes involved suggest that chimeric transcripts should not be studied in isolation, but together, as an RNA network.

Fusion of Multi-Atlas Segmentations with Spatial Distribution Modeling

In recent years, multi-atlas fusion methods have gainedsignificant attention in medical image segmentation. Inthis paper, we propose a general Markov Random Field(MRF) based framework that can perform edge-preservingsmoothing of the labels at the time of fusing the labelsitself. More specifically, we formulate the label fusionproblem with MRF-based neighborhood priors, as an energyminimization problem containing a unary data term and apairwise smoothness term. We present how the existingfusion methods like majority voting, global weightedvoting and local weighted voting methods can be reframedto profit from the proposed framework, for generatingmore accurate segmentations as well as more contiguoussegmentations by getting rid of holes and islands. Theproposed framework is evaluated for segmenting lymphnodes in 3D head and neck CT images. A comparison ofvarious fusion algorithms is also presented.

Codex Search: propuesta e implementación de un sistema de recuperación de información de ámbito local basado en casos

CODEX SEARCH es un motor de recuperación de información especializado en derecho de extranjería que está basado en herramientas y conocimiento lingüísticos. Un motor o Sistema de Recuperación de Información (SRI) es un software capaz de localizar información en grandes colecciones documentales (entorno no trivial) en formato electrónico. Mediante un estudio previo se ha detectado que la extranjería es un ámbito discursivo en el que resulta difícil expresar la necesidad de información en términos de una consulta formal, objeto de los sistemas de recuperación actuales. Por lo tanto, para desarrollar un SRI eficiente en el dominio indicado no basta con emplear un modelo tradicional de RI, es decir, comparar los términos de la pregunta con los de la respuesta, básicamente porque no expresan implicaciones y porque no tiene que haber necesariamente una relación 1 a 1. En este sentido, la solución lingüística propuesta se basa en incorporar el conocimiento del especialista mediante la integración en el sistema de una librería de casos. Los casos son ejemplos de procedimientos aplicados por expertos a la solución de problemas que han ocurrido en la realidad y que han terminado en éxito o fracaso. Los resultados obtenidos en esta primera fase son muy alentadores pero es necesario continuar la investigación en este campo para mejorar el rendimiento del prototipo al que se puede acceder desde &http://161.116.36.139/~codex/&.

Fast numerical algorithms for the computation of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this paper, we develop numerical algorithms that use small requirements of storage and operations for the computation of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems (exact symplectic maps and Hamiltonian vector fields). The algorithms are based on the parameterization method and follow closely the proof of the KAM theorem given in [LGJV05] and [FLS07]. They essentially consist in solving a functional equation satisfied by the invariant tori by using a Newton method. Using some geometric identities, it is possible to perform a Newton step using little storage and few operations. In this paper we focus on the numerical issues of the algorithms (speed, storage and stability) and we refer to the mentioned papers for the rigorous results. We show how to compute efficiently both maximal invariant tori and whiskered tori, together with the associated invariant stable and unstable manifolds of whiskered tori. Moreover, we present fast algorithms for the iteration of the quasi-periodic cocycles and the computation of the invariant bundles, which is a preliminary step for the computation of invariant whiskered tori. Since quasi-periodic cocycles appear in other contexts, this section may be of independent interest. The numerical methods presented here allow to compute in a unified way primary and secondary invariant KAM tori. Secondary tori are invariant tori which can be contracted to a periodic orbit. We present some preliminary results that ensure that the methods are indeed implementable and fast. We postpone to a future paper optimized implementations and results on the breakdown of invariant tori.

QWERTY and the search for optimality

This paper shows how one of the developers of QWERTY continued to use the trade secret that underlay its development to seek further efficiency improvements after its introduction. It provides further evidence that this was the principle used to design QWERTY in the first place and adds further weight to arguments that QWERTY itself was a consequence of creative design and an integral part of a highly efficient system rather than an accident of history. This further serves to raise questions over QWERTY's forced servitude as 'paradigm case' of inferior standard in the path dependence literature. The paper also shows how complementarities in forms of intellectual property rights protection played integral roles in the development of QWERTY and the search for improvements on it, and also helped effectively conceal the source of the efficiency advantages that QWERTY helped deliver.

Efficient Competition through Cheap Talk: Competing Auctions and Competitive Search without Ex Ante Price

We consider a frictional two-sided matching market in which one side uses public cheap talk announcements so as to attract the other side. We show that if the first-price auction is adopted as the trading protocol, then cheap talk can be perfectly informative, and the resulting market outcome is efficient, constrained only by search frictions. We also show that the performance of an alternative trading protocol in the cheap-talk environment depends on the level of price dispersion generated by the protocol: If a trading protocol compresses (spreads) the distribution of prices relative to the first-price auction, then an efficient fully revealing equilibrium always (never) exists. Our results identify the settings in which cheap talk can serve as an efficient competitive instrument, in the sense that the central insights from the literature on competing auctions and competitive search continue to hold unaltered even without ex ante price commitment.

Meeting technologies and optimal trading mechanisms in competitive search markets

In a market in which sellers compete by posting mechanisms, we study how the properties of the meeting technology affect the mechanism that sellers select. In general, sellers have incentive to use mechanisms that are socially efficient. In our environment, sellers achieve this by posting an auction with a reserve price equal to their own valuation, along with a transfer that is paid by (or to) all buyers with whom the seller meets. However, we define a novel condition on meeting technologies, which we call “invariance,” and show that the transfer is equal to zero if and only if the meeting technology satisfies this condition.

Directed Search over the Life Cycle

We develop a life-cycle model of the labor market in which different worker-firm matches have different quality and the assignment of the right workers to the right firms is time consuming because of search and learning frictions. The rate at which workers move between unemployment, employment and across different firms is endogenous because search is directed and, hence, workers can choose whether to seek low-wage jobs that are easy to find or high-wage jobs that are hard to find. We calibrate our theory using data on labor market transitions aggregated across workers of different ages. We validate our theory by showing that it predicts quite well the pattern of labor market transitions for workers of different ages. Finally, we use our theory to decompose the age profiles of transition rates, wages and productivity into the effects of age variation in work-life expectancy, human capital and match quality.