The Export Base Model with a Supply-Side Stimulus to the Export Sector

Paper delivered at the Western Regional Science Association Annual Conference, Sedona, Arizona, February, 2010.

Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

An adapted model of ex vivo vein perfusion: the key to understand vessel wall remodeling

Objective: Saphenous vein graft bypass remains the salvage option when¦endovascular procedure has failed or was contraindicated due to extensive¦occlusive lesions. However, pathological wall remodeling leading leading to¦graft failure is one of the most limiting factors of this therapy. Therefore, the¦understanding of this remodeling process of human vein is essential to the design¦of future effective therapeutics and it requires an adapted model of ex-vivo vein¦perfusion.¦Methods: We have developed an ex vivo vein support system (EVVSS), which¦uses standardized and controlled hemodynamic parameters for the pulsatile¦perfusion of saphenous vein segments. The morphological and molecular¦parameters involved in the remodeling process under an arterial shear stress¦associated to low (7 mm Hg) or high (70 mm Hg) pressure conditions can be¦analyzed.¦Results: Histomorphometric analysis showed that the vein segments perfused¦during 7 days under high pressure undergo a significant neointima development¦compared to veins exposed to low pressure conditions. The application of an¦arterial shear stress in the vein under low pressure induced an elevation of the¦MMP-2 and MMP-9 expression, activity and transcription. The application of¦higher pressure is associated to increased MMP2 expression and transcription¦and MMP9 transcription. TIMP1 expression and transcription were initiated by¦the application of an arterial shear stress but not modified by the modification¦of the pressure. However, TIMP2 expression was increased under high¦pressure conditions but its transcription was inhibited by arterial shear stress,¦independently of the pressure. The values of transcription and expression of¦PAI-1 were not modified by high pressure. Eph-B4 transcription and expression¦were significantly decreased under arterial shear stress.¦Conclusion: These data show that our EVVSS is a valuable setting to study¦ex vivo remodeling of human saphenous veins submitted to arterial conditions.¦The intimal hyperplasia as well as MMP 2, 9 and TIMP 2 seem to be influenced¦by the pressure.

Spot inversion in the Heston model

We analyse the Heston stochastic volatility model under an inversion of spot. The result is that under the appropriate measure changes the resulting process is again a Heston type process whose parameters can be explicitly determined from those of the original process. This behaviour can be interpreted as some measure of sanity of the Heston model but does not seem to be a general feature of stochastic volatility processes.

A toxicokinetic model to assess exposure to folpet fungicide from urinary biomarkers

Folpet is one of the most widely employed fungicides in agriculture. It is typically used in the culture of vegetables, fruits and ornamental plants. Once absorbed in the human body, it has been found to be very reactive, especially in acid conditions. According to various in vitro and in vivo experiments in animals, Folpet is first fractioned at the N-S link when in contact with aqueous solutions and thiol groups. From this non-enzymatic process a phthalimide (PI) molecule is formed, which may be used as a biomarker of exposure, along with the short-lived thiophosgene. We have built a human toxicokinetic model to account for the biotransformation of Folpet into PI and its subsequent excretion while accounting for other non-monitored metabolites. The mathematical parameters of the model were determined accordingly from best-fits to the time courses of PI in blood and urine of five volunteers administered orally 1 mg/kg and dermally 10 mg/kg of Folpet. In both cases, the mean elimination half-life of PI from the body (either through faeces, urine or metabolism) was found to be 31.6 h. The average final fractions of administered dose recovered in urine as PI were 0.025% and 0.002%, for oral and dermal administration, respectively after 96 h. According to the model, when orally administered, PI rapidly hydrolyzes to phthalamic and phthalic acids such that only 0.04% of the PI found in the gastrointestinal tract is absorbed into the blood stream. Likewise, after dermal application, model predicts that only 7.4% of the applied Folpet dose crosses the epidermis. In the model, the PI initial metabolite of Folpet is formed in the dermis and further metabolized prior to reaching systemic circulation, such that only 0.125% of PI formed at the site-of-entry reaches systemic blood. Our mathematical model is in accordance with both measures of blood (R2=0.57 for dermal and R2=0.66 for oral) and urine (R2 =0.98 for dermal and R2=0.99 for oral).

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

The murine model of infection with Leishmania major and its importance for the deciphering of mechanisms underlying differences in Th cell differentiation in mice from different genetic backgrounds.

Mice from the majority of inbred strains are resistant to infection by Leishmania major, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of macrophages in the mammalian host. In contrast, mice from BALB strains are unable to control infection and develop progressive disease. In this model of infection, genetically determined resistance and susceptibility have been clearly shown to result from the appearance of parasite-specific CD4+ T helper 1 or T helper 2 cells, respectively. This murine model of infection is considered as one of the best experimental systems for the study of the mechanisms operating in vivo at the initiation of polarised T helper 1 and T helper 2 cell maturation. Among the several factors influencing Th cell development, cytokines themselves critically regulate this process. The results accumulated during the last years have clarified some aspects of the role played by cytokines in Th cell differentiation. They are providing critical information that may ultimately lead to the rational devise of means by which to tailor immune responses to the effector functions that are most efficient in preventing and/or controlling infections with pathogens.

A cell-based model of extracellular-matrix-guided endothelial cell migration during angiogenesis.

Angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels sprouting from existing ones, occurs in several situations like wound healing, tissue remodeling, and near growing tumors. Under hypoxic conditions, tumor cells secrete growth factors, including VEGF. VEGF activates endothelial cells (ECs) in nearby vessels, leading to the migration of ECs out of the vessel and the formation of growing sprouts. A key process in angiogenesis is cellular self-organization, and previous modeling studies have identified mechanisms for producing networks and sprouts. Most theoretical studies of cellular self-organization during angiogenesis have ignored the interactions of ECs with the extra-cellular matrix (ECM), the jelly or hard materials that cells live in. Apart from providing structural support to cells, the ECM may play a key role in the coordination of cellular motility during angiogenesis. For example, by modifying the ECM, ECs can affect the motility of other ECs, long after they have left. Here, we present an explorative study of the cellular self-organization resulting from such ECM-coordinated cell migration. We show that a set of biologically-motivated, cell behavioral rules, including chemotaxis, haptotaxis, haptokinesis, and ECM-guided proliferation suffice for forming sprouts and branching vascular trees.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Sialoglycoconjugates in Trypanosoma cruzi-host cell interaction: possible biological model - a review

A number of glycoconjugates, including glycolipids and glycoproteins, participate in the process of host-cell invasion by Trypanosoma cruzi and one of the most important carbohydrates involved on this interaction is sialic acid. It is known that parasite trans-sialidase participates with sialic acid in a coordinated fashion in the initial stages of invasion. Given the importance of these sialogycoconjugates, this review sets out various possible biological models for the interaction between the parasite and mammalian cells that possess a sialylated receptor/ligand system.

Knowledge of Catalan, public/private sector choice and earnings: Evidence from a double sample selection model

This paper explores the earnings return to Catalan knowledge for public and private workers in Catalonia. In doing so, we allow for a double simultaneous selection process. We consider, on the one hand, the non-random allocation of workers into one sector or another, and on the other, the potential self-selection into Catalan proficiency. In addition, when correcting the earnings equations, we take into account the correlation between the two selectivity rules. Our findings suggest that the apparent higher language return for public sector workers is entirely accounted for by selection effects, whereas knowledge of Catalan has a significant positive return in the private sector, which is somewhat higher when the selection processes are taken into account.