920 resultados para predictive regression model
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Family farming has been considered as the new axis of rural development in the country, the focus of several public policies, especially the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture - PRONAF and Food Purchase Program - PAA. PRONAF was created with the aim of providing credit to farmers, while the PAA to support family farmers through the purchase of its production. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the correspondence of these two public policies for family farming, in the Territories of Citizenship of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 2008 to 2010. In the methodology, the analysis was performed by comparing the distributions of the two programs in the territories of citizenship status. There were also statistical tests of differences in proportions, and Spearman correlations, and estimated a logit regression model, in order to measure the probability of a farmer participating in the PAA is associated with one of the modes of PRONAF. The data used were obtained from the National and Supply - CONAB at the Institute of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension - EMATER, and the Ministry of Agrarian Development - MDA. Among the key findings was noted that policies were associated with a direct, but low in the districts of the Territories of Citizenship. And that, in the years 2008 and 2009, only in the territories of Mato Grande, Alto Oeste and Seridó, the actions of PAA and PRONAF had direct and significant correlations. It was found that in most of the territories, policies are performed randomly, ie that both have no correlation to each other. The estimates of the logit model showed that the chance of a family farmer, the PAA participant, receive credits PRONAF A, is higher in the territory of Mato Grande, and would have a chance to fall in PRONAF B in all areas surveyed. Moreover, farmers in the territories of the Assu-Mossoró, Sertão of Apodi, Seridó and Alto Oeste, participating in the PAA would be more likely to receive credits PRONAF C, reflecting thus the family farm more consolidated these territories
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The overall objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency in the use of resources and the quality of public health in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte, from 2004 to 2008. It also seeks to identify the determinants of municipal inefficiency and measure the productivity of public spending on health. To this end, three methods of analysis are used: the DEA, the Malmquist index and the Tobit regression model. Among other findings, it appears that municipalities considered more inefficient in the measurement of expenditure on health make the largest expense in this function. On the other hand, from 2004 to 2008, only 13 municipalities showed an increase in the productivity of public spending. It is also noted that municipalities considered efficient in quality of health, although having more physical and human resources, offer fewer health services to the population. In all, the major determinants of health spending inefficiencies are the variables: age of the mayor, coalition, population density, literacy race and budget revenues. Regarding the inefficiency of the health quality, variables such as: coalition, literacy race have strong influence on this behavior. Thereby, the hypotheses proposed by the study have been fully accepted. In other words, for the efficiency of the quality and health spending it is needed more than resources, i.e., the expenditure shows itself as essential, but not enough, for political and economic aspects also interfere with the performance of spent and in the quality of health care offered to the population
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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This master´s thesis presents a reliability study conducted among onshore oil fields in the Potiguar Basin (RN/CE) of Petrobras company, Brazil. The main study objective was to build a regression model to predict the risk of failures that impede production wells to function properly using the information of explanatory variables related to wells such as the elevation method, the amount of water produced in the well (BSW), the ratio gas-oil (RGO), the depth of the production bomb, the operational unit of the oil field, among others. The study was based on a retrospective sample of 603 oil columns from all that were functioning between 2000 and 2006. Statistical hypothesis tests under a Weibull regression model fitted to the failure data allowed the selection of some significant predictors in the set considered to explain the first failure time in the wells
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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This work presents a study in quality of health care, with focus on consulting appointment. The main purpose is to define a statistical model and propose a quality grade of the consulting appointment time. The time considered is that from the day the patient get the appointment done to the day the consulting is realized. It is used reliability techniques and functions that has as main characteristic the analysis of data regarding the time of occurrence certain event. It is gathered a random sample of 1743 patients in the appointment system of a University Hospital - the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes - of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The sample is randomly stratified in terms on clinical specialty. The data were analyzed against the parametric methods of the reliability statistics and the adjustment of the regression model resulted in the Weibull distribution being best fit to data. The quality grade proposed is based in the PAHO criteria for a consulting appointment and result that no clinic got the PAHO quality grade. The quality grade proposed could be used to define priority for improvement and as criteria to quality control
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Este experimento foi conduzido para avaliar as exigências de triptofano e o padrão de recuperação do desempenho de poedeiras alimentadas com rações deficientes em triptofano. Foram utilizadas 160 poedeiras comerciais da linhagem Hisex White distribuídas em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado com cinco níveis de triptofano nas dietas (0,13; 0,15; 0,17; 0,19 e 0,21%), com oito repetições de quatro aves. As poedeiras permaneceram por duas semanas em adaptação (51 a 52 semanas), por seis semanas para avaliação da exigência de triptofano (53 a 58 semanas) e por quatro semanas para determinação do padrão de recuperação do desempenho (59 a 62 semanas). A produção e a massa de ovos foram prejudicadas quando as poedeiras foram alimentadas com rações contendo 0,13% de triptofano, no entanto, o desempenho foi recuperado após uma semana de alimentação com ração contendo 0,21% desse aminoácido. A qualidade interna dos ovos não foi influenciada pelos níveis de triptofano estudados (ingestão de 137,1 a 228,0 mg triptofano/dia). As exigências de triptofano foram estabelecidas entre 161 e 188 mg/dia, dependendo da característica avaliada (produção ou massa de ovos) e do modelo de regressão aplicado (polinomial, exponencial ou segmentado).
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Objetivou-se neste trabalho avaliar diferentes períodos de controle e de convivência de uma comunidade de plantas daninhas na cultura da batata 'Atlantic'. O experimento foi realizado no município de Botucatu-SP, e o delineamento experimental utilizado foi de blocos ao acaso com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos constituíram-se de seis períodos de controle, nos quais a cultura foi mantida livre da comunidade de plantas daninhas e após cada período, as plantas daninhas foram deixadas crescer livremente; e de seis períodos de convivência, nos quais a cultura foi mantida na presença da comunidade de plantas daninhas e após cada período, as plantas daninhas foram eliminadas até a colheita. Os períodos foram de 7, 14, 21, 28, 35 e 42 dias após o plantio dos tubérculos, além de uma testemunha mantida sempre livre de plantas daninhas e outra mantida sempre na presença dessas plantas. Foram identificadas 9 famílias e 15 espécies de plantas daninhas, com destaque para Bidens pilosa, Galinsoga parviflora,Brachiaria plantaginea,Commelina benghalensis e Digitaria horizontalis. Os resultados de produção de tubérculos ajustaram-se ao modelo de regressão não-linear: y = 8,907+(17,722/[1+(x/16,865)-8,412]), (R² = 0,963*) - equação para os períodos de controle e y = 5,728+(24,789/[1+(x/39,292)2,247 ]), (R² = 0,947*) - equação para os períodos de convivência. Assim, considerando perda de 5% na produtividade como aceitável, foram determinados o período anterior à interferência (PAI), que foi de 20 dias; o período total de prevenção à interferência (PTPI), de 21 dias; e o período crítico de prevenção da interferência (PCPI), de apenas de um dia, dos 20 aos 21 dias após o plantio dos tubérculos.
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Objetivou-se com este trabalho estimar os períodos de interferência das plantas daninhas na cultura do sorgo granífero BRS 310. O experimento foi realizado no município de Botucatu/SP, em delineamento experimental de blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos constituíram-se de oito períodos de controle, nos quais a cultura foi mantida livre da comunidade de plantas daninhas, e de oito períodos de convivência, nos quais a cultura foi mantida na presença da comunidade infestante. Os períodos foram: 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49 e 56 dias após a semeadura (DAS), além de uma testemunha mantida livre da interferência das plantas daninhas e outra mantida na presença destas. Foram identificadas 11 famílias e 17 espécies de plantas daninhas, destacando-se as famílias Asteraceae e Poaceae, com o maior número de espécies. Para determinação dos períodos de interferência, os dados de produtividade de grãos, comprimento da panícula e massa seca da parte aérea das plantas de sorgo obtidos foram ajustados ao modelo de regressão não linear: y = a/[1+(x/b)c]. Considerando como aceitável perda de 5% para a produtividade de grãos, o comprimento da panícula e a massa seca da parte aérea das plantas de sorgo, determinou-se o período anterior à interferência (PAI) de 42, 72 e 15 DAS e o período total de prevenção à interferência (PTPI) de 26, 17 e 12 DAS, respectivamente. Não houve período crítico de prevenção da interferência (PCPI) para os parâmetros avaliados.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Introduction: The aging process causes quantitative and qualitative changes in sleeping. Such changes affects more than half of the adults above 65 years old, that live in the community and 70% of the institutionalized, a great negative impact in their quality of life. One of the pathological displays of aging, that share some characteristics with sleeping disorders and predict similar results, is the Frailty Syndrome, that characterize the most weakened and vulnerable elderly. The way sleeping disorders play a role in the frailty pathogeneses remains uncertain. Objective: Evaluate the relation between the sleeping and the frailty syndrome on institutionalized elderly. Methodology: A transversal study was performed with 69 elderly in institutions in the city of João Pessoa PB. Were used the Pittsburgh Sleeping Quality Index and actigraphy to subjective and objective variables, respectively, and questionnaires and specific tests to frailty phenotype variant (Fried Frailty Criteria). In the statistic analysis were used the Pearson correlation test, Chi Square and One-way ANOVA test, with Tukey-Krammer posttest. Subsequently, a Simple Linear Regression model was built. On every statistical analysis were considered a confidence interval of 95% and a p < 0,05. Results: The sample was characterized by the prevalence of the frail (49,3%), women (62,3%), single (50,7%) and 77,52 (±7,82).The frail elderly obtained the worst sleeping quality 10,37 (±4,31) (f = 4,15, p = 0,02), when compared with the non-frail. The sleep latency influenced more the frailty (R2 = 0,13, β standard = 1,76, β = 0,41, p = 0,001). Weren t found differences between the standard resting-activity variable and the frailty phenotype categories. Conclusion: Sleeping alterations, including bad sleeping quality, prolonged sleep latency, low sleep efficiency and day drowsiness, influenced the frailty in institutionalized elderly
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Introduction: The frailty in the elderly is the result of a complex interplay between many social and clinical factors involved in its genesis. Although there is an understanding of its association with increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes, still it is unclear whether this syndrome can be aggravated due to lack of social support. So, the objective of this study was to analyze the association between social support and frailty syndrome in elderly community residents. Materials and methods: Observational analytical cross-sectional study, with a sample of 300 elderly living in the city of Natal-RN. Were collected informations about socialdemographic, economics and physical health data. The Social support was assessed by the status of cohabitation; marital status; contact frequency and diversity rate; received and given attendance frequency rate; and Map Minimum Relations of the Elderly. The frailty was assessed using the following criteria: unintentional weight loss, weakness, low physical activity, exhaustion and Slowness. To observe any possible associations, we performed the Pearson chi-square test, the Student t test and multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression, adopting a significance level of 5%. Results: It was observed that there were no associations of frailty with the social support variables, except for housekeeping mode (p = 0.046) of the MMRI. For the sociodemographic, economic, physical health and social support data, only age (p <0.001), sedentary lifestyle (p = 0.002) and poor perceived health (p = 0.001) were the ones that remained in the logistic regression model, with strong association for the presence of frailty. Conclusion: Among the variables related to social support, only to help with housekeeping was significantly associated with frailty. However, more studies need to be developed to characterize the social vulnerability, as well as health services need to recognize the importance of social support as an integral part of care for the elderly
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The term fatigability concerns the degree of fatigue associated with performing an activity of any type (physical, mental, emotional and / or social). Recently scales for assessing fatigue in the English language were created, however, gaps exist regarding the validity of these scales in relation to oxygen consumption and levels of perceived fatigue. Objective: To investigate the validity of perceived fatigability scale in older women frail and non-frail by the expired gases kinetics. Methods: This is a study of type validation, where were evaluated 48 elderly. The evaluation was conducted at two different sessions. In the first, data were collected demographic partners, as well as assessment of cognitive function, physical health, and the phenotype of frailty. The second was composed by the test 6-minute walk (6MWT) associated the expired gases kinects and assessment of perceived fatigability. Statistical analysis was performed a descriptive analysis and then we used the Pearson correlation test to evaluate the relationship between the measure of perceived fatigue and variables oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide production (VCO2), respiratory exchange ratio (RER)before and after 6MWT. We used a linear regression model initially considering the following explanatory variable: age, Body Mass Index (BMI), presence of frailty, comorbidities, level of physical activity, distance covered in the 6MWT , the energy cost of walking and severity of fatigability on performance. Results: The final sample consisted of 44 elderly women, 4 elderly were excluded because they didn t complete all phases of this study. The mean age obtained was 75 years (± 7.2 years). There was no significant correlation between fatigability measures and the values of VO2 ( r = .09 , p = .56 ) , VCO2 ( r = .173 , p = .26 ) , RER ( r = - .121 , p = .43 ). The final linear regression model showed that the energy cost of walking, the usual level of physical activity and the performance severity of fatigability explained 83.5 % (R2 = 0.835, p < 0.01) of the variation in the perceived fatigability. Conclusion: Our findings indicate a relationship between greater severity of fatigability and lower levels of physical activity and increased energy cost in walking, suggesting that the fatigability analyses using a simple numeric scale is valid and viable for assessment of fatigue in older women
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Objective-To compare the ability of a sidestream capnograph and a mainstream capnograph to measure end-tidal CO2 (ETCO2) and provide accurate estimates of Paco(2) in mechanically ventilated dogs.Design-Randomized, double Latin square.Animals-6 healthy adult dogs.Procedure-Anesthesia was induced and neuromuscular blockade achieved by IV administration of pancuronium bromide. Mechanical ventilation was used to induce conditions of standard ventilation, hyperventilation, and hypoventilation. While tidal volume was held constant, changes in minute volume ventilation and Paco(2) were made by changing the respiratory rate. Arterial blood gas analysis was performed and ETCO2 measurements were obtained by use of either a mainstream or a sidestream capnographic analyzer.Results-A linear regression model and bias analysis were used to compare Paco(2) and ETCO2 measurements; ETCO2 measurements obtained by both capnographs correlated well with Paco(2). Compared with Paco(2), mainstream ETCO2 values differed by 3.15 +/- 4.89 mm Hg (mean bias +/- SD), whereas the bias observed with the sidestream ETCO2 system was significantly higher (5.65 +/- 5.57 mm Hg). Regardless of the device used to measure ETCO2, bias increased as Paco(2) exceeded 60 mm Hg.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Although the mainstream capnograph was slightly more accurate, both methods of ETCO2 measurement correlated well with Paco(2) and reflected changes in the ventilatory status. However, ETCO2 values > 45 mm Hg may inaccurately reflect the severity of hypoventilation as Paco(2) may be underestimated during conditions of hypercapnia (Paco(2) > 60 mm Hg).