Modeling the fiscal impacts caused by climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of scenarios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

Norms and Greek foreign policy: 1981--2000

From the end of WWII to the end of the Cold War Greek foreign policy was shaped by the dynamics of the Cold War. The major issues facing Greek foreign policy decision makers in the post-cold war era are its relations with its Northern neighbors, Albania, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), and Bulgaria, its relations with Turkey, and Greece's future in the European Union. Although the three issues overlap there is consensus among the Greek political elite that the relationship with Turkey is the most pressing since Turkey poses the most immediate security threat. In the last twenty-five years the two countries came to the verge of war three times over the continental shelf in the Aegean and Cyprus. The latest crisis was in 1996. Since then Greek policy makers have embarked on a conciliatory road towards Turkey that has gained momentum in the last three years. The purpose of this dissertation is to describe the process of the recent change in Greek foreign policy vis-à-vis Turkey, as reflected in the words and deeds (speeches, interviews, statements, policies) of the Greek policy makers. In addition, the study seeks to understand how this change is related to rules existing at the global, regional, and domestic levels. The central question to be asked is: how do rules existing at these levels regulate and constitute the foreign policy process of the Greek government. I utilize the theoretical insights and concepts provided by constructivism in order to carry out my research. The analysis establishes the relationship between the agents (Greek foreign policy makers) and the various rules and explores this relationship as an ongoing process by ascertaining the social context within which this process is unfolding. ^

Ethnic groups and institutions: A study of institutional engineering in four Central and Eastern European countries

The issue of institutional engineering has gained a renewed interest with the democratic transitions of the Central and Eastern European countries, as for some states it has become a matter of state survival. The four countries examined in the study – Macedonia, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria – exemplify the difficulty in establishing a stable democratic society in the context of the resurgence of national identity. The success of ethnonational minorities in achieving the desired policies affirming or expanding their rights as a group was conditioned upon the cohesion of the minority as well as the permissiveness of state institutions in terms of participation and representation of minority members. The Hungarian minorities in Slovakia and Romania, the Turkish minority in Bulgaria, and the Albanian minority in Macedonia, formed their political organizations to represent their interests. However, in some cases the divergence of strategies or goals between factions of the minority group seriously impeded its ability to obtain the desired concessions from the majority. The difficulty in the pursuit of policies favoring the expansion of minority rights was further exacerbated in some of the cases by the impermissiveness of political institutions. The political parties representing the interest of ethnonational minorities were allowed to participate in elections, although not without suspicions about their intent and even strong opposition from majority groups, but participation in elections and subsequent representation in legislative bodies did not translate into adoption of the desired policies. The ethnonational minorities' inability to effectively influence the decision-making process was the result of the inadequacy of democratic institutions to process these demands and channel them through the normal political process in the absence of majority desire to accommodate them. Despite the promise of democratic institutions to bring about a major overhaul of the policies of forceful assimilation and disregard for minority rights, the four cases analyzed in the study demonstrate that in effect ethnonational minorities continued to be at the mercy of the majority, especially if the minority was unable to position itself as a balancing actor.

Nivel socioeconómico y rendimiento académico: estudiantes resilientes

La pobreza es un factor que influye, como se ha indicado en numerosos estudios, en el resultado académico de los chicos y las chicas desfavorecidas, así como en su proceso de aprendizaje. Además, la falta de recursos tanto económicos como culturales interacciona con múltiples variables de distinta manera. En este estudio se analiza al estudiante resiliente a partir de los resultados obtenidos en el Programa PISA de 2009 dedicado a la lectura con la pretensión de dar respuesta a la pregunta: ¿en qué se diferencian y en qué se parecen los estudiantes que tienen una puntuación similar en lectura pero con orígenes sociales diferentes o a la inversa? a fin de poder conocer las características propias de la resiliente. Para ello, se ha definido al estudiante resiliente como aquel que obtiene una puntuación en el estatus socioeconómico y cultural contenida en el intervalo -1 o menor y una puntuación en lectura en los niveles 5 ó 6. Concretando los objetivos de este estudios, éstos son (a) Identificar las principales variables, entre las seleccionadas por PISA, que influyen en la relación entre el nivel económico y el académico, (b) Aplicar el Análisis de Variables Latentes para discernir grupos de alumnos evaluados en PISA, (c) Identificar grupos de alumnos y (d) Buscar las características del alumnado resiliente frente a las de aquellos sujetos con niveles socioeconómicos o académicos similares. Para ello se han seleccionado los siguientes países pertenecientes a la OCDE: Australia, Canadá, República Checa, Estonia, Finlandia, Francia, Grecia, Hungría, Israel, Japón, Corea, México, Nueva Zelanda, Polonia, Portugal, Eslovenia, España, Turquía, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos y no pertenecientes a la OCDE: Brasil, Bulgaria, China Taipei, Croacia, Macao-China, Rusia, Shanghái-China, Singapur, Trinidad y Tobago y Uruguay...

The relationship between vegetation and modern pollen assemblages on Mount Paggeo (NE Greece)

In this study, we investigated the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain along the elevational gradient of Mount Paggeo. We apply multivariate data analysis to assess the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain and quantify the representativeness of forest zones. This study represents the first statistical analysis of pollen-vegetation relationship along an elevational gradient in Greece. Hence, this paper improves confidence in interpretation of palynological records from north-eastern Greece and may refine past climate reconstructions for a more accurate comparison of data and modelling. Numerical classification and ordination were performed on pollen data to assess differences among plant communities that beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates or co-dominates. The results show a strong relationship between altitude, arboreal cover, human impact and variations in pollen and nonpollen palynomorph taxa percentages.

The State of the Nation Debate as part of the democratic parliamentary ritual: Rajoy and Rubalcaba discourse analysis, 2014

In this article we analyze the Debate on the State of the Nation 2014. The methodology consists in coding the speeches of the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy (PP) and the then opposition leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba (PSOE) through extracting word clouds, branched maps and word trees that have shown the most common concepts and premises. This preliminary analysis of two dimensions, quantitative and qualitative, makes it much easier and viable subsequent discourse analysis where we focus on the different types of arguments in the communicative act: claim/solution, circumstantial premises, goal premises, value premises, meansgoal premises, alternative options/addressing alternative options.