Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

The financial system in Mozambique: Opportunities, barriers and market potential

This research is empirical and exploratory intending to analyse the attractiveness of banking in Mozambique, considering its positive outlook. To identify the opportunities and barriers, the methods adopted were elite interviews with banking executives, complemented by secondary data. The opportunities for new entrants seem to include bankarization and the emergence of micro and smallmedium enterprises; other avenues seem to include investment banking, support of mega-projects (e.g. energy, infrastructures) through syndicates and cooperation with multilaterals, and the participation in developing capital markets. Conversely, the main barriers include shortage of talent, inadequate infrastructures, poverty, unsophisticated entrepreneurial culture (e.g. informal economy, inadequate financial reporting), burdensome bureaucracy (e.g. visas), foreign exchange regulation, as well as low liquidity and high funding costs for banks. The key conclusions suggest a window of opportunity for niche markets, and new products and services in retail and investment banking.

Impact of corporate social responsibility in the European pharmaceutical market

The objective of this master thesis is to evaluate the impact of CSR measures in the financial performance of the European pharmaceutical industry. By definition, CSR measures is quantified as corporate social disclosure considering the published CSR keywords on the annual reports of the selected companies, over four fiscal years (2010-2013). The financial performance of the companies were measured as return on assets (ROA) and Tobin’s Q. In order to defend the hypothesis developed, a multivariate regression is performed. The results obtained show no significant impact on the financial performance of a company nor in the short-time, nor in the long-time. Moreover, by comparison with other studies, it was possible to conclude that the financial performance is differently affected when considering different industries.

Market value of corruption

This paper studies the impact of the Brazilian anticorruption legislation, PL 6826/2010, on stock returns. I show that, around the law approval date, the greater the link between the corporate and political worlds, the worse is the companies’ performance. Companies awarded with public contracts in 2012 suffer more with the new legislation approval. Firms with above median contract values have 2.9% lower returns than its peers. The negative effect is more pronounced for bigger and more complex entities, associated with higher levels of Corporate Responsibility and Governance and not subject to the US FCPA.

Survey of Bancroftian filariasis infection in humans and Culex mosquitoes in the western Brazilian Amazon region: implications for transmission and control

IntroductionThe aim of this work was to identify possible lymphatic filariasis foci in the western Brazilian Amazonian that could be established from the reports of Rachou in the 1950s. The study was conducted in three cities of the western Brazilian Amazon region - Porto Velho and Guajará-Mirim (State of Rondônia) and Humaitá (State of Amazonas).MethodsFor human infection evaluation thick blood smear stained with Giemsa was used to analyze samples collected from 10pm to 1am. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to examine mosquito vectors for the presence of Wuchereria bancrofti DNA. Humans were randomly sampled from night schools students and from inhabitants in neighborhoods lacking sanitation. Mosquitoes were collected from residences only.ResultsA total 2,709 night students enrolled in the Program for Education of Young Adults (EJA), and 935 people registered in the residences near the schools were examined, being 641 from Porto Velho, 214 from Guajará-Mirim and 80 from Humaitá. No individual examined was positive for the presence of microfilariae in the blood stream. A total of 7,860 female Culex quinquefasciatus specimens examined were negative by PCR.ConclusionsThis survey including human and mosquito examinations indicates that the western Amazon region of Brazil is not a focus of Bancroftian filariasis infection or transmission. Therefore, there is no need to be included in the Brazilian lymphatic filariasis control program.

Survey of sandfly vectors of leishmaniasis in Marambaia Island, municipality of Mangaratiba, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

IntroductionThe influx and efflux of military personnel in the possible endemic areas of leishmaniasis provided the impetus for research on the sandflies on Marambaia Island.MethodsSandflies were collected with light traps installed in the 3 ecotypes of 3 areas chosen for their particular landscape aspects.ResultsIn 2009, were collected 32,006 specimens of sandflies belonging to 13 species. The species that showed highest density were Nyssomyia intermedia and Migoneimyia migonei.ConclusionsN. intermedia and M. migonei are the principal vectors of American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) in Brazil; thus, extension studies related to the eco-epidemiology of these species of Marambaia Island are essential.

An internationalisation research project into the German market for the Portuguese canned seafood company COFACO.

This project is aimed to analyse the German market of canned fish, in order to find out if there is potential of entering the market for the Portuguese canned seafood company named COFACO. The purpose of this foreign market research, carried out for COFACO, is to highlight the main key aspects of the current German seafood market, founded out through a deep analysis. Moreover, the work project is also aimed to give the company suggestions regarding the Brand, the Product and the Distribution strategy to implement in order to succeed, once considered the opportunity to enter the market.

Attitudes and behaviors of Croation consumers towards wine purchasing

This paper focuses on the importance of consumers’ habits, preferences and needs in the Croatian wine market to have a better understanding of consumer purchase and consumption behavior. Survey was conducted on Croatian consumers to identify purchasing variables and explain consumer attitudes and behaviors. Along with the online survey, results were also provided using additional journals and research examples. Both measures offered a better understanding of the issues mentioned. Additionally, both may be used in order to implement effective marketing strategies. The results are essential for the preservation of Croatian wine and purchase growth, but also consumption. Moreover, they offer foundations on which to improve Croatian wine offering.

Fruta com cheiro: The implementation of a new brand of fruit in the Portuguese market

‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’ is an idea for a new brand of fruit that would be introduced in the Portuguese market that would differentiate itself from the brands already in the market and from other non-branded fruit producers. In order to prove that the idea was valid and would have a place in the market, two methods of exploratory research were used – in-depth interviews and focus groups – to understand attitudes and behaviors regarding fruit selection and purchase and also people’s perceptions to ‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’. After these two steps, several considerations were made in relation to preliminary marketing aspects such as brand creation and positioning. There was also a final remark on the fact that this thesis is not a business plan and its purpose was to show how viable would the project be.

Customer relationship management at Siemens Healthcare – a diagnosis and proposal for strategy and market segmentation

Towards a holistic perspective of CRM, this project aims to diagnose and propose a strategy and market segmentation for Siemens Healthcare. The main underlying principle is to apply a full customer-centric outlook taking own business properties into consideration while preserving Siemens Healthcare’s culture and vision. Mainly focused on market segmentation, this project goes beyond established boundaries by employing an unbiased perspective of CRM while challenging current strategy, goals, processes, tools, initiatives and KPIs. In order to promote a sustainable business excellence strategy, this project aspires to streamline CRM strategic importance and driving the company one step forward.

Internationalization strategy for MyHelpster.com with a focus on international market selection

International Market Selection is an important step towards a successful internationalization strategy. This is no different for startup companies like MyHelpster. This work project was intended to help MyHelpster with their internationalization process by completing the IMS portion of it. The IMS process presented in this paper lead to the conclusion that MyHelpster’s next market for expansion should be the USA. In order to find as much success as possible the author suggests being patient and only expanding when the company has the necessary capital, experience and credibility. Both primary and secondary data were used to compile the qualitative and quantitative analyses.

Environmental sustainability adoption

Double degree

Finding new opportunities in the Lisbon market through Whitaker consumer lifestyle segmentation

A sample of 445 consumers resident in distinct Lisbon areas was analyzed through direct observations in order to discover each lifestyle’s current proportion, applying the Whitaker Lifestyle™ Method. The findings of the conducted hypothesis tests on the population proportion unveil that Neo-Traditional and Modern Whitaker lifestyles have the significantly highest proportion, while the overall presence of different lifestyles varies across neighborhoods. The research further demonstrates the validity of Whitaker observation techniques, media consumption differences among lifestyles and the importance of style and aesthetics while segmenting consumers by lifestyles. Finally, market opportunities are provided for firms operating in Lisbon.