Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Bayesian classification criterion for forensic multivariate data

This study presents a classification criteria for two-class Cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland, law enforcement authorities regularly ask laboratories to determine cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. In this study, the classification analysis is based on data obtained from the relative proportion of three major leaf compounds measured by gas-chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The aim is to discriminate between drug type (illegal) and fiber type (legal) cannabis at an early stage of the growth. A Bayesian procedure is proposed: a Bayes factor is computed and classification is performed on the basis of the decision maker specifications (i.e. prior probability distributions on cannabis type and consequences of classification measured by losses). Classification rates are computed with two statistical models and results are compared. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to analyze the robustness of classification criteria.

Publicizing insecurity, privatizing security: Chinese wholesalers' surveillance cameras in a Paris suburb

Since the early nineties, several hundreds of Chinese immigrants have settled in what has become known as the 'Chinese wholesalers area'. For the past two years, Chinese wholesalers in Aubervilliers have been calling on public authorities to address the problem of street robberies and violent thefts, which they experience on a daily basis. Yet, they have been encouraged by the authorities to ensure their own protection, by - amongst other things - installing surveillance cameras to film the streets. This is illegal according to French legislation on camera surveillance. Knowing this, why have surveillance cameras been adopted as a solution? This question guides the ethnographic analysis presented here of a situation where the installation of surveillance cameras was locally negotiated by the main actors involved - namely, the wholesalers' representatives and the police.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Disobeying an Illegitimate Request in a Democratic or Authoritarian System

Crimes of obedience in the form of illegal or immoral acts committed in response to orders from authority occur in many contexts. In particular, under some circumstances of threats, people can easily accept restrictions upon democratic procedures. Recent studies have underlined the role of legitimacy in understanding the authority relationship and the importance of evaluating the legitimacy of the request rather than the legitimacy of the authority in preventing the rise of authoritarianism. The purpose of this study was to verify if people respond differently when an illegitimate request is put forward by a democratic or an authoritarian authority. The results on 224 subjects confirmed that people tend to be more obedient when they perceive authorities as democratic, notwithstanding the legitimacy of their requests.

El dret civil català davant la transposició de la directiva 2008/112, relativa a certs aspectes contractuals de l’aprofitament per torns de béns mobles i immobles

L’objectiu principal d’aquest estudi consisteix a determinar quines implicacions té en l’ordenament jurídic civil català l’aprovació de la Directiva 2008/122, del Parlament Europeu i del Consell, 14.1.2009, relativa a la protecció dels consumidors respecte a determinats aspectes dels contractes d’aprofitament per torn de béns d’ús turístic, d’adquisició de productes de vacances de llarga durada, de revenda i d’intercanvi.

HSC(F)05-2014 (PDF 201 KB)

Update to Procurement Guidance Note 03/11 - Award of Contracts without a Competition

Traducció i estudi de documents demòtics datats del regnat d'Alexandre el Gran (332-323 aC)

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Oriental Institute de la University of Oxford, Regne Unit, entre juliol i octubre de 2007. Durant l’estada s’ha analitzat la documentació demòtica datada del regnat d’Alexandre el Gran com a faraó d’Egipte (332-323 aC). El conjunt de fonts que examinat està constituït per sis papirs (actes notarials que recullen diversos tipus de contractes o acords entre dues parts), un òstrakon fragmentari i una sèrie d’esteles provinents de la Necròpolis d’Animals de Saqqara Nord, en concret de la Catacumba de les Mares d’Apis. Aquesta documentació és fonamental perquè permet extreure conclusions importants sobre diversos aspectes relacionats amb l’administració i la religiositat egípcies en els moments inicials de la dominació grega d'Egipte. Cadascun d’aquests documents ha estat traduït, analitzat en profunditat i degudament contextualitzat històricament. D’una banda, en l’àmbit de l’administració, he pogut constatar la continuïtat existent amb el període històric immediatament anterior, és a dir, amb la Segona Dominació Persa del país; mentre que de l'altra, des del punt de vista religiós, l’anàlisi d’aquestes fonts m’ha permès verificar l'existència de tota una sèrie de canvis substancials, estretament vinculats a la voluntat expressa de la nova elit dirigent d'origen grec de distanciar-se dels seus predecessors aquemènides i de marcar amb força l’obertura d’una nova era que es caracteritzarà pel respecte a les tradicions autòctones i per la potenciació dels cultes nacionals.

Stage of change of cigarette smoking in drug dependent patients

Résumé En Suisse, les programmes de désaccoutumance au tabac se réfèrent généralement au modèle de préparation au changement de Prochaska et DiClemente (1983), Les patients atteints de maladies somatiques liées au tabagisme comme les pathologies cardiovasculaires ou pulmonaires accèdent facilement à ces programmes, contrairement aux patients présentant une dépendance à des drogues illicites. La prévalence de fumeurs dans cette population est pourtant élevée et les problèmes engendrés par le tabac sont importants, non seulement d'un point de vue individuel mais aussi en terme de santé publique. Il est par conséquent intéressant d'évaluer la motivation concernant la désaccoutumance au tabac de patients toxicomanes entreprenant un sevrage de drogues illicites. Dans cette étude, nous avons évalué les stades de préparation au changement concernant la dépendance au tabac chez 100 patients toxicomanes hospitalisés sur un mode volontaire dans le cadre d'un programme de sevrage à des drogues illégales. L'évaluation s'est faite à l'aide d'un auto-questionnaire dont les résultats indiquent qu'une minorité de patients sont décidés à interrompre la consommation de tabac. En effet, seul 15% des patients se trouvaient aux stades de contemplation ou de décision. De plus, 93% des sujets considéraient l'arrêt du tabac comme difficile ou très difficile. Ces données montrent qu'il existe un décalage important entre la motivation relative au sevrage de drogues illégales et la motivation liées à l'arrêt du tabac. En effet, malgré leur motivation élevée pour se sevrer de drogues illicites, la proportion de patients restant au stade de précontemplation concernant la désaccoutumance au tabac reste élevée. Diverses hypothèses permettent d'expliquer ces résultats, notamment la perception que la désaccoutumance au tabac est plus difficile à réaliser que le sevrage de substances illicites. Abstract Nicotine cessation programmes in Switzerland, which are commonly based on the stage of change model of Prochaska and DiClemente (1983), are rarely offered to patients with illicit drug dependence. This stands in contrast to the high smoking rates and the heavy burden of tobacco-related problems in these patients. The stage of change was therefore assessed by self-administered questionnaire in 100 inpatients attending an illegal drug withdrawal programme. Only 15% of the patients were in the contemplation or decision stage. 93% considered smoking cessation to be difficult or very difficult. These data show a discrepancy between the motivation to change illegal drug consumption habits and the motivation for smoking cessation. The high pro-portion of patients remaining in the precontemplation stage for smoking cessation, in spite of their motivation for illicit drug detoxification, may be due to the perception that cessation of smoking is more difficult than illicit drug abuse cessation.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Influència dels tractaments mèdics i psicoterapèutics en la disminució del delicte en població addicta a drogues

En l'àmbit judicial es constata una relació entre drogoaddicció i delicte. Els addictes a drogues han iniciat amb freqüència algun programa de desintoxicació o han sol·licitat suport mèdic o psicològic. L'estudi es proposa avaluar l'associació entre la conducta il·legal i l'abús de substàncies tòxiques, així com interpretar l'eficàcia dels tractaments terapèutics en la disminució d’aquesta associació, i les repercussions de les teràpies tant sobre els pacients com sobre el seu entorn. És un estudi observacional prospectiu d’una mostra de 100 subjectes que tenen relació amb el consum de drogues d'abús, al Jutjat de Guàrdia de Barcelona i en subjectes interns del Centre Penitenciari de Joves de Barcelona. Els resultats de l’estudi diuen que el sexe masculí hi està representat en un 94%, la mitjana d’edat és de 25,5 anys, amb baix nivell d’estudis i sense professió qualificada. Gairebé la meitat de la mostra són estrangers i solters. Els pacients estudiats són politoxicòmans amb un consum majoritari de cocaïna (92%), cannabis (87%), alcohol (71%) i el 54% d’heroïna. Destaca l’alta freqüència dels UDVP i de la positivitat als tres virus (VIH, VHC, VHB), tot i que es demostra el descens de l’ús de la via parenteral. El 73% dels subjectes comenten delictes contra la propietat. El 93% de la mostra han estat en tractament, però en períodes curts (70%). El 72,7% que estan en PMM consumeixen habitualment cocaïna. Els pacients tractats amb psicofàrmacs són detinguts menys vegades que la resta de pacients. Pocs pacients han fet tractaments combinats amb psicoteràpia o lliure de drogues. Entre la població de detinguts, els tractaments rebuts han resultat beneficiosos pel que fa a autoestima, autoagressivitat, heteroagressivitat, conflictivitat penal i violència en els fets delictius, però aquestes variables quasi no es modifiquen en el cas dels joves. Els tractaments produeixen un benefici als pacients toxicòmans i disminueixen la conflictivitat penal. Els tractaments s’han d’iniciar en els primers estadis del consum, així com potenciar l’adhesió i el seguiment. Els centres penitenciaris de justícia juvenil, les comissaries i els jutjats de guàrdia són els llocs idonis per a l’abordatge del tractament del drogodependent.

Central nervous system stimulants and sport practice.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Central nervous system (CNS) stimulants may be used to reduce tiredness and increase alertness, competitiveness, and aggression. They are more likely to be used in competition but may be used during training to increase the intensity of the training session. There are several potential dangers involving their misuse in contact sports. This paper reviews the three main CNS stimulants, ephedrine, amfetamine, and cocaine, in relation to misuse in sport. METHODS: Description of the pharmacology, actions, and side effects of amfetamine, cocaine, and ephedrine. RESULTS: CNS stimulants have psychotropic effects that may be perceived to be ergogenic. Some are prescription drugs, such as Ephedra alkaloids, and there are issues regarding their appropriate therapeutic use. Recently attention has been given to their widespread use by athletes, despite the lack of evidence regarding any ergogenic or real performance benefit, and their potentially serious side effects. Recreational drugs, some of which are illegal (cocaine, amfetamines), are commonly used by athletes and cause potential ergolytic effects. Overall, these drugs are important for their frequent use and mention in anti-doping laboratories statistics and the media, and their potentially serious adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: Doping with CNS stimulants is a real public health problem and all sports authorities should participate in its prevention. Dissemination of information is essential to prevent doping in sport and to provide alternatives. Adequate training and education in this domain should be introduced.

Execució penal de sancions a conductors sota els efectes de drogues d’abús basats en estudi de saliva: ingerència i repercussió futura en el Codi penal

El consum de drogues no institucionalitzades té una important dimensió epidemiològica. En l'actualitat augmenta el consum de cocaïna i de cànnabis i s'estabilitza o disminueix el de opiacis. En la majoria dels països hi ha una relació entre la drogoaddicció i el delicte. Objectius: 1) Obtenir dades sociodemogràfiques en una població detinguda en els jutjats de guàrdia que passen a disposició judicial; 2) Obtenir dades sanitàries referents a infecció per VIH, VHC I VHB; 3) Obtenir dades de consums de cocaïna, haxis, heroïna, benzodiazepines i drogues de síntesis; 4) Conèixer la correlació o concordança clínico-analítica i, 5) Valorar la relació de l'addicció a drogues amb la delictologia. Subjectes i Mètodes: Estudi realitzat en una població de 151 subjectes consumidors de drogues il·legals detinguts a disposició judicial al Jutjat de guàrdia de la ciutat de Barcelona. Temps de l'estudi: 1,5 anys. Mètodes: Administració d'un qüestionari amb dades sociodemogràfiques, sanitàries i de consums de tòxics. Obtenció d'una mostra d'orina que es va analitzar per immunoassaig en l'analitzador AsXym (*Abbot). Els resultats es van interpretar com positius o negatius segons el punt de tall establert per al mètode. Resultats: El perfil de la mostra és un home solter, edat mitjana de 31.4 anys, amb estudis primaris i sense professió qualificada. La droga il·legal més consumida és la cocaïna, 77,5%, seguida dels opiacis 62,9%, del cànnabis 60,3% i benzodiazepines 61.6% (auto-medicades 40,9%). La prevalença de HIV va ser del 16,7%, VHC 37,9% i VHB 19,1%. La via intravenosa és utilitzada pel 46% dels cocainòmans i pel 53.8% del heroinòmans. Un 45.5% tenen signes compatibles amb UDVP. Només un 14.2% presentava signes de deteriorament físic i un 23.1% una clara síndrome d’abstinència. Existeix un 74.3% de correlació o concordança clínico-analítica. El delicte més relacionat amb el consum de drogues va ser els delictes contra la propietat. Conclusions i Discusió: Es detecta un alt consum de cocaïna i disminució de l'heroïna. El consum de cànnabis i benzodiazepines és elevat. Els delictes contra la propietat estan associats al consum de drogues il·legals. Propostes: L'estudi té aplicabilitat en medicina forense. El screening rutinari d'orina en població detinguda és una mesura d'utilitat. Permet obtenir dades objectives quan se sol·liciten informes de drogoaddicció als perits. Els detinguts poden beneficiar-se de circumstàncies modificadores de la responsabilitat criminal en cas de ser consumidors de tòxics, d’acord amb la legislació actual. Els lletrats i l'autoritat judicial tindran una prova objectiva en les seves actuacions per poder resoldre amb més coneixement els procediments on es troben implicats els consumidors de drogues d'abús.

Address by Michea¡l Martin to the Conference - Legislating for Tobacco Free Society

Thank you Chairman I would like to extend a warm welcome to our keynote speakers, David Byrne of the European Commission, Derek Yach from the World Health Organisation, and Paul Quinn representing Congressman Marty Meehan who sends his apologies. When we include the speakers who will address later sessions, this is, undoubtedly, one of the strongest teams that have been assembled on tobacco control in Europe. The very strength of the team underlines what I see as a shift – a very necessary shift – in the way we perceive the tobacco issue. For the last twenty years, we have lived out a paradox. It isn´t a social side issue. I make no apology for the bluntness of what I´m saying, and will come back, a little later, to the radicalism I believe we need to bring – nationally – to this issue. For starters, though, I want to lay it on the line that what we´re talking about is an epidemic as deadly as any suffered by human kind throughout the centuries. Slower than some of those epidemics in its lethal action, perhaps. But an epidemic, nonetheless. According to the World Health Organisation tobacco accounted for just over 3 million annual deaths in 1990, rising to 4.023 million annual deaths in 1998. The numbers of deaths due to tobacco will rise to 8.4 million in 2020 and reach roughly 10 million annually by 2030. This is quite simply ghastly. Tobacco kills. It kills in many different ways. It kills increasing numbers of women. It does its damage directly and indirectly. For children, much of the damage comes from smoking by adults where children live, study, play and work. The very least we should be able to offer every child is breathable air. Air that doesn´t do them damage. We´re now seeing a global public health response to the tobacco epidemic. The Tobacco Free Initiative launched by the World Health Organisation was matched by significant tobacco control initiatives throughout the world. During this conference we will hear about the experiences our speakers had in driving these initiatives. This Tobacco Free Initiative poses unique challenges to our legal frameworks at both national and international levels; in particular it raises challenges about the legal context in which tobacco products are traded and asks questions about the impact of commercial speech especially on children, and the extent of the limitations that should be imposed on it. Politicians, supported by economists and lawyers as well as the medical profession, must continue to explore and develop this context to find innovative ways to wrap public health considerations around the trade in tobacco products – very tightly. We also have the right to demand a totally new paradigm from the tobacco industry. Bluntly, the tobacco industry plays the PR game at its cynical worst. The industry sells its products without regard to the harm these products cause. At the same time, to gain social acceptance, it gives donations, endowments and patronage to high profile events and people. Not good enough. This model of behaviour is no longer acceptable in a modern society. We need one where the industry integrates social responsibility and accountability into its day-to-day activities. We have waited for this change in behaviour from the tobacco industry for many decades. Unfortunately the documents disclosed during litigation in the USA and from other sources make very depressing reading; it is clear from them that any trust society placed in the tobacco industry in the past to address the health problems associated with its products was misplaced. This industry appears to lack the necessary leadership to guide it towards just and responsible action. Instead, it chooses evasion, deception and at times illegal activity to protect its profits at any price and to avoid its responsibilities to society and its customers. It has engaged in elaborate ´spin´ to generate political tolerance, scientific uncertainty and public acceptance of its products. Legislators must act now. I see no reason why the global community should continue to wait. Effective legal controls must be laid on this errant industry. We should also keep these controls under review at regular intervals and if they are failing to achieve the desired outcomes we should be prepared to amend them. In Ireland, as Minister for Health and Children, I launched a comprehensive tobacco control policy entitled “Towards a Tobacco Free Society“. OTT?Excessive?Unrealistic? On the contrary – I believe it to be imperative and inevitable. I honestly hold that, given the range of fatal diseases caused by tobacco use we have little alternative but to pursue the clear objective of creating a tobacco free society. Aiming at a tobacco free society means ensuring public and political opinion are properly informed. It requires help to be given to smokers to break the addiction. It demands that people are protected against environmental tobacco smoke and children are protected from any inducement to experiment with this product. Over the past year we have implemented a number of measures which will support these objectives; we have established an independent Office of Tobacco Control, we have introduced free nicotine replacement therapy for low-income earners, we have extended our existing prohibitions on tobacco advertising to the print media with some minor derogations for international publications. We have raised the legal age at which a person can be sold tobacco products to eighteen years. We have invested substantially more funds in health promotion activities and we have mounted sustained information campaigns. We have engaged in sponsorship arrangements, which are new and innovative for public bodies. I have provided health boards with additional resources to let them mount a sustained inspection and enforcement service. Health boards will engage new Directors of Tobacco Control responsible for coordinating each health board´s response and for liasing with the Tobacco Control Agency I set up earlier this year. Most recently, I have published a comprehensive Bill – The Public Health (Tobacco) Bill, 2001. This Bill will, among other things, end all forms of product display and in-store advertising and will require all retailers to register with the new Tobacco Control Agency. Ten packs of cigarettes will be banned and transparent and independent testing procedures of tobacco products will be introduced. Enforcement officers will be given all the necessary powers to ensure there is full compliance with the law. On smoking in public places we will extend the existing areas covered and it is proposed that I, as Minister for Health and Children, will have the powers to introduce further prohibitions in public places such as pubs and the work place. I will also provide for the establishment of a Tobacco Free Council to advise and assist on an ongoing basis. I believe the measures already introduced and those additional ones proposed in the Bill have widespread community support. In fact, you´re going to hear a detailed presentation from the MRBI which will amply illustrate the extent of this support. The great thing is that the support comes from smokers and non-smokers alike. Bottom line, Ladies and Gentlemen, is that we are at a watershed. As a society (if you´ll allow me to play with a popular phrase) we´ve realised it´s time to ´wake up and smell the cigarettes.´ Smell them. See them for what they are. And get real about destroying their hold on our people. The MRBI survey makes it clear that the single strongest weapon we have when it comes to preventing the habit among young people is price. Simple as that. Price. Up to now, the fear of inflation has been a real impediment to increasing taxes on tobacco. It sounds a serious, logical argument. Until you take it out and look at it a little more closely. Weigh it, as it were, in two hands. I believe – and I believe this with a great passion – that we must take cigarettes out of the equation we use when awarding wage increases. I am calling on IBEC and ICTU, on employers and trade unions alike, to move away from any kind of tolerance of a trade that is killing our citizens. At one point in industrial history, cigarettes were a staple of the workingman´s life. So it was legitimate to include them in the ´basket´ of goods that goes to make up the Consumer Price Index. It isn´t legitimate to include them any more. Today, I´m saying that society collectively must take the step to remove cigarettes from the basket of normality, from the list of elements which constitute necessary consumer spending. I´m saying: “We can no longer delude ourselves. We must exclude cigarettes from the considerations we address in central wage bargaining. We must price cigarettes out of the reach of the children those cigarettes will kill.” Right now, in the monthly Central Statistics Office reports on consumer spending, the figures include cigarettes. But – right down at the bottom of the page – there´s another figure. Calculated without including cigarettes. I believe that if we continue to use the first figure as our constant measure, it will be an indictment of us as legislators, as advocates for working people, as public health professionals. If, on the other hand, we move to the use of the second figure, we will be sending out a message of startling clarity to the nation. We will be saying “We don´t count an addictive, killer drug as part of normal consumer spending.” Taking cigarettes out of the basket used to determine the Consumer Price Index will take away the inflation argument. It will not be easy, in its implications for the social partners. But it is morally inescapable. We must do it. Because it will help us stop the killer that is tobacco. If we can do it, we will give so much extra strength to health educators and the new Tobacco Control Association. This new organisation of young people who already have branches in over fifteen counties, is represented here today. The young adults who make up its membership are well placed to advise children of the dangers of tobacco addiction in a way that older generations cannot. It would strengthen their hand if cigarettes move – in price terms – out of the easy reach of our children Finally, I would like to commend so many public health advocates who have shown professional and indeed personal courage in their commitment to this critical public health issue down through the years. We need you to continue to challenge and confront this grave public health problem and to repudiate the questionable science of the tobacco industry. The Research Institute for a Tobacco Free Society represents a new and dynamic form of partnership between government and civil society. It will provide an effective platform to engage and mobilise the many different professional and academic skills necessary to guide and challenge us. I wish the conference every success.

Drug use in Ireland and Northern Ireland, Bulletin 2

19.6.2012 This bulletin presents key findings at a local level from the third drug prevalence survey of households in both Ireland and Northern Ireland. The bulletin presents results relating to drug prevalence on a lifetime, last year (recent) and last month (current) basis for illegal and other drugs including alcohol and tobacco for each Regional Drug Task Force Area (former Health Board areas) in Ireland, and Health and Social Care Trust (HSCT) in Northern Ireland. Click here to download PDF 2.7mb