Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Work values, endogenous sentiments and redistribution

We examine the interactions between individual behavior, sentiments and the social contract in a model of rational voting over redistribution. Agents have moral "work values". Individuals' self-esteem and social consideration of others are endogenously determined comparing behaviors to moral standards. Attitudes toward redistribution depend on self-interest and social preferences. We characterize the politico-economic equilibria in which sentiments, labor supply and redistribution are determined simultaneously. The equilibria feature different degrees of "social cohesion" and redistribution depending on pre-tax income inequality. In clustered equilibria the poor are held partly responsible for their low income since they work less than the moral standard and hence redistribution is low. The paper proposes a novel explanation for the emergence of different sentiments and social contracts across countries. The predictions appear broadly in line with well-documented differences between the United States and Europe.

The Part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market

This paper is the first to examine the implications of switching to PT work for women's subsequent earnings trajectories, distinguishing by their type of contract: permanent or fixedterm. Using a rich longitudinal Spanish data set from Social Security records of over 76,000 prime-aged women strongly attached to the Spanish labor market, we find that PT work aggravates the segmentation of the labor market insofar there is a PT pay penalty and this penalty is larger and more persistent in the case of women with fixed-term contracts. The paper discusses problems arising in empirical estimation (including a problem not discussed in the literature up to now: the differential measurement error of the LHS variable by PT status), and how to address them. It concludes with policy implications relevant for Continental Europe and its dual structure of employment protection.

Introduction

Dans cette introduction, Valentine Robert propose de saisir les films mettant en scène l'acte de créer (et en particulier de peindre) dans une perspective historiographique et filmographique renouvelée. Postulant que filmer la création réactive une esthétique de « paragone », autrement dit une métadiscursivité plastique d'association et de réappropriation entre l'art représenté et l'art représentant, elle esquisse une histoire des genres et des théories du film sur l'art qui se cristallisent dans un corpus d'oeuvres à priori inclassables, telles que La Chute de la Maison Usher (Jean Epstein, 1928), The Rebel (Robert Day, 1960), L'Hypothèse du tableau volé (Raoul Ruiz, 1978), The Draughtsman's contract (Peter Greenaway, 1982), Portrait du peintre dans son atelier (Boris Lehman, 1985), Caravaggio (Derek Jarman, 1987), La Belle noiseuse (Jacques Rivette, 1991) ou El sol del membrillo (Victor Erice, 1992). Ces « fictions de création », sans appartenir traditionnellement à la catégorie documentaire des « films sur l'art », ont en effet ce point commun de révéler, par le jeu de la fiction, de la mise en abyme et de l'intermédialité, une véritable théorisation de la création.

Cronyism in Business, Public Sector and Politics

This paper contrasts the incentives for cronyism in business, the public sector and politics within an agency problem model with moral hazard. The analysis is focused on the institutional differences between private, public and political organizations. In business, when facing a residual claimant contract, a chief manager ends up with a relatively moderate …rst-best level of cronyism within a …firm. The institutional framework of the public sector does not allow explicit contracting, which leads to a more severe cronyism problem within public organizations. Finally, it is shown that the nature of political appointments (such that the subordinate's reappointment is conditioned on the chief's re-election) together with implicit contracting makes political cronyism the most extreme case. JEL classifi…cation: D72, D73, D86. Keywords: Cronyism; Meritocracy; Manager; Bureaucrat; Politician.

Decentralization of contracts with interim sidecontracting

This paper gives a new explanation for the phenomena of subcontracting. A model in which a principal contracts two agents who work in a sequence on a project, have soft information and can collude is considered. Side-contracts between agents can be signed at any stage of the game. Due to limited liability and moral hazard agents obtain a rent. The principal’s problem is to find the preferable contracting structure. It is shown that in this setting a decentralized contracting structure can be superior to a centralized structure for the principal. The paper derives the conditions under which this holds. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D23, D82, L14, L22. Keywords: Contract delegation, Collusion, Interim side-contracting, Moral hazard.

The AP-1 transcription factor c-Jun prevents stress-imposed maladaptive remodeling of the heart.

Systemic hypertension increases cardiac workload and subsequently induces signaling networks in heart that underlie myocyte growth (hypertrophic response) through expansion of sarcomeres with the aim to increase contractility. However, conditions of increased workload can induce both adaptive and maladaptive growth of heart muscle. Previous studies implicate two members of the AP-1 transcription factor family, junD and fra-1, in regulation of heart growth during hypertrophic response. In this study, we investigate the function of the AP-1 transcription factors, c-jun and c-fos, in heart growth. Using pressure overload-induced cardiac hypertrophy in mice and targeted deletion of Jun or Fos in cardiomyocytes, we show that c-jun is required for adaptive cardiac hypertrophy, while c-fos is dispensable in this context. c-jun promotes expression of sarcomere proteins and suppresses expression of extracellular matrix proteins. Capacity of cardiac muscle to contract depends on organization of principal thick and thin filaments, myosin and actin, within the sarcomere. In line with decreased expression of sarcomere-associated proteins, Jun-deficient cardiomyocytes present disarrangement of filaments in sarcomeres and actin cytoskeleton disorganization. Moreover, Jun-deficient hearts subjected to pressure overload display pronounced fibrosis and increased myocyte apoptosis finally resulting in dilated cardiomyopathy. In conclusion, c-jun but not c-fos is required to induce a transcriptional program aimed at adapting heart growth upon increased workload.

El desistiment del contracte al futur llibre VI del Codi civil de Catalunya

Es proposa que el legislador català reguli, de manera uniforme, el dret de desistiment al Llibre VI CCCat. Pot fer-ho, en el seu cas, fent ús o considerant els models de regulació uniforme que s´està proposant en el context de la revisió de l´acquis comunitari. És aquesta mateixa regulació comunitària la que avala una configuració del dret a desistir com a causa extintiva del contracte, amb eficàcia retroactiva o ex tunc, i, per tant, com a mecanisme que es projecte sobre un contracte perfeccionat, fins i tot consumat. Ara bé, aquesta configuració no hauria de privar al legislador català de l´oportunitat de considerar altres possibilitats: així, la d´articular la facultat de penediment en fase pre-contractual. Serien més d´una les tècniques que faciliten la reflexió abans de l´atorgament del contracte, en comptes de permetre-la després. Convertida en mecanisme post-contractual, haurà d´anar acompanyada de les disposicions que estableixin el règim del contracte mentre no transcorre el termini per a desistir, les conseqüències de l´eventual pèrdua de la cosa entretant no caduqui el dret, les condicions i requisits d´exercici de la facultat i la liquidació de la situació possessòria, en el seu cas. Els comentaris i suggerències que es proposen a l´estudi es formulen a propòsit dels preceptes que, relatius al desistiment, s´incorporaren als Treballs preparatoris del Llibre Sisè del Codi civil de Catalunya (document de 23.04.04)

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Work and health : remodelling perspectives of working life research, as proposed by Järvholm et al. (2009)

Järvholm and Co-workers (2009) proposed a conceptual model for research on working life. Models are powerful communication and decision tools. This model is strongly unidirectional and does not cover the mentioned interactions in the arguments.With help of a genealogy of work and of health it is shown that work and health are interactive and have to be analysed on the background of society.Key words: research model, work, health, occupational health, society, interaction, discussion paperRemodellierung der von Järvholm et al. (2009) vorgeschlagenen Forschungsperspektiven in Arbeit und GesundheitJärvholm und Kollegen stellten 2009 ein konzeptionelles Modell für die Forschung im Bereich Arbeit und Gesundheit vor. Modelle stellen kraftvolle Kommunikations- und Entscheidungsinstrumente dar. Die Einflussfaktoren im Modell verlaufen jedoch nur in einer Richtung und bilden die interaktiven Argumente im Text nicht ab. Mit Hilfe einer Genealogie der Begriffe Arbeit und Gesundheit wird aufgezeigt, dass Arbeit und Gesundheit sich gegenseitig beeinflussen und nur vor dem Hintergrund der jeweiligen gesellschaftlichen Kontextfaktoren zu analysieren sind.Introduction : After an interesting introduction about the objectives of research on working life, Järvholm and Co-workers (2009) manage to define a conceptual model for working life research out of a small survey of Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) definitions. The strong point of their model is the entity 'working life' including personal development, as well as career paths and aging. Yet, the model Järvholm et al. (2009) propose is strangely unidirectional; the arrows point from the population to working life, from there to health and to disease, as well as to productivity and economic resources. The diagram only shows one feed-back loop: between economic resources and health. We all know that having a chronic disease condition influences work and working capacity. Economic resources have a strong influence on work, too. Having personal economic resources will influence the kind of work someone accepts and facilitate access to continuous professional education. A third observation is that society is not present in the model, although this is less the case in the arguments. In fact, there is an incomprehensible gap between the arguments brought forth by Järvholm and co-workers and their reductionist model.Switzerland has a very low coverage of occupational health specialists. Switzerland is a long way from fulfilling the WHO's recommendations on workers' access to OSH services as described in its Global plan of action. The Institute for Work and Health (IST) in Lausanne is the only organisation which covers the major domains of OSH research that are occupational medicine, occupational hygiene, ergonomic and psychosocial research. As the country's sole occupational health institution we are forced to reflect the objectives of working life research so as not to waste the scare resources available.I will set out below a much shortened genealogy of work and of health, with the aim of extending Järvholm et al's (2009) analyses on the perspectives of working life research in two directions. Firstly towards the interactive nature of work and health and the integration of society, and secondly towards the question of what working life means or where working life could be situated.Work, as we know it today - paid work regulated by a contract as the basis for sustaining life and as a base for social rights - was born in modern era. Therefore I will start my genealogy in the pre-modern era, focus on the important changes that occurred during industrial revolution and the modern era and end in 2010 taking into account the enormous transformations of the past 20-30 years. I will put aside some 810 years of advances in science and technology that have expanded the world's limits and human understanding, and restrict my genealogy to work and to health/body implicating also the societal realm. [Author]

Tipus Abstractes de Dades i Disseny per Contracte

Biblioteca de tipus abstractes de dades (TADs) que incorpora la tecnologia de disseny per contracte (DbC) i consta bàsicament de dues parts. La primera, l'especificació, que és el punt d'entrada a l'API, és un conjunt d'interfícies, les quals introdueixen les operacions dels TADs i en fixen el comportament, així com defineixen els drets i obligacions dels usuaris.

Development of a National English Language Policy and Framework for Legally Resident Adult Immigrants - Horwath Report

The Office of the Minister for Integration (OMI), in conjunction with the Department of Education and Science (DES), commissioned an independent review to assist in the development of a national English Language policy and framework for legally-resident adult immigrants. Horwath Consulting Ireland, in association with Rambll Management and Matrix Knowledge Group, were awarded the contract to undertake this assignment. The terms of reference for the assignment state that: “proposed future developments will be governed by a clear strategy which reflects the importance of English language tuition in overall integration objectives and which addresses key coordination, technical, funding and service-delivery issues."

Lifeline Consultation Report - A summary of the feedback to the Public Health Agency's public consultation process on the Lifeline Crisis Response Service

This report is a summary of the feedback from the public consultation process on the current Lifeline contract and future options.

Quality assurance in road traffic analyses in Switzerland.

Swiss laboratories performing toxicological road traffic analyses have been authorized for many years by the Swiss Federal Roads Office (FEDRO). In 2003 FEDRO signed a contract with the Swiss Society of Legal Medicine (SSLM) to organize the complete quality management concerning road traffic analyses. For this purpose a multidisciplinary working group was established under the name of "road traffic commission (RTC)". RTC has to organize external quality control, to interpret the results of these controls, to perform audits in the laboratories and to report all results to FEDRO. Furthermore the working group can be mandated for special tasks by FEDRO. As an independent organization the Swiss Center for Quality Control (CSCQ) in Geneva manages the external quality controls in the laboratory over the past years. All tested drugs and psychoactive substances are listed in a federal instruction. The so-called 'zero tolerance substances' (THC, morphine, cocaine, amphetamine, methamphetamine, MDMA and MDEA) and their metabolites have to be tested once a year, all other substances (benzodiazepines, zolpidem, phenobarbital, etc.) periodically. Results over the last years show that all laboratories are generally within the confidence interval of +/-30% of the mean value. In cases of non-conformities measures have to be taken immediately and reported to the working group. External audits are performed triennially but accredited laboratories can combine this audit with the approval of the Swiss Accreditation Service (SAS). During the audits a special checklist filled in by the laboratory director is assessed. Non-conformities have to be corrected. During the process of establishing a new legislation, RTC had an opportunity of advising FEDRO. In collaboration with FEDRO, RTC and hence SSLM can work actively on improving of quality assurance in road traffic toxicological analyses, and has an opportunity to bring its professional requests to the federal authorities.