On the relevance of modeling volatility for pricing purposes

This paper presents a two-factor (Vasicek-CIR) model of the term structure of interest rates and develops its pricing and empirical properties. We assume that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread. Assuming a certain process for both factors, a general bond pricing equation is derived and a closed-form expression for bond prices is obtained. Empirical evidence of the model's performance in comparisson with a double Vasicek model is presented. The main conclusion is that the modeling of the volatility in the long-term rate process can help (in a large amount) to fit the observed data can improve - in a reasonable quantity - the prediction of the future movements in the medium- and long-term interest rates. However, for shorter maturities, it is shown that the pricing errors are, basically, negligible and it is not so clear which is the best model to be used.

Vários percursos diversas identificações : descendentes de migrantes cabo-verdianos no Bairro do Talude - Unhos

The research presented here aimed to analyze the processes of integration of Cape Verdeans immigrants descendants of living in the neighborhood of Talude, Town of Unhos, Municipality of Loures. To analyze the central object of research - the process of integration of descendants of migrants in the neighborhood of Talude we tried to answer the following questions, which reflect the objectives of the research:  What are the paths of socialization the descendants of immigrants: at the family, at school, in employment, in the neighborhood and in other activities?  What is the influence of gender relations in the processes of integration of descendants?  What are the perception the of immigrants descendants living in the neighborhood of Talude in relation to how they are viewed by residents of the Town residents in the neighborhood? And the people or society in general? And what influence these perceptions have in their process of integration? This study consists in two parts: the design of the survey, which is depicted on the reason for the choice of topic, the definition of the topic, research objectives, the method that was used in the course of investigation and the framing of the issue. In the second part, the analysis of data in different pathways: family, neighborhood, school, labor market, in other activities, the influence of gender and image(s). As a general conclusion we can say that there are several factors that contribute to the identification of immigrant descendants (there are no apparent factors that predominate) and the images they have of themselves and the Portuguese society in general are diverse.

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

Posterior quadrantic epilepsy surgery: technical variants, surgical anatomy, and case series.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with intractable epilepsy due to extensive lesions involving the posterior quadrant (temporal, parietal, and occipital lobes) form a small subset of epilepsy surgery. This study was done with a view to analyze our experience with this group of patients and to define the changes in the surgical technique over the last 15 years. We also describe the microsurgical technique of the different surgical variants used, along with their functional neuroanatomy. METHODS: In this series there were 13 patients with a median age of 17 years. All patients had extensive presurgical evaluation that provided concordant evidence localizing the lesion and seizure focus to the posterior quadrant. The objective of the surgery was to eliminate the effect of the epileptogenic tissue and preserve motor and sensory functions. RESULTS: During the course of this study period of 15 years, the surgical procedure performed evolved toward incorporating more techniques of disconnection and minimizing resection. Three technical variants were thus utilized in this series, namely, (i) anatomical posterior quadrantectomy (APQ), (ii) functional posterior quadrantectomy (FPQ), and (iii) periinsular posterior quadrantectomy (PIPQ). After a median follow-up period of 6 years, 12/13 patients had Engel's Class I seizure outcome. CONCLUSION: The results of surgery for posterior quadrantic epilepsy have yielded excellent seizure outcomes in 92% of the patients in the series with no mortality or major morbidity. The incorporation of disconnective techniques in multilobar surgery has maintained the excellent results obtained earlier with resective surgery.

Training in flexible intensive insulin therapy improves quality of life, decreases the risk of hypoglycaemia and ameliorates poor metabolic control in patients with type 1 diabetes.

AIM: Intensified insulin therapy has evolved to be the standard treatment of type 1 diabetes. However, it has been reported to increase significantly the risk of hypoglycaemia. We studied the effect of structured group teaching courses in flexible insulin therapy (FIT) on psychological and metabolic parameters in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 45 type 1 diabetic patients of our outpatient clinic participating in 5 consecutive FIT teaching courses at the University Hospital of Basel. These courses consist of 7 weekly ambulatory evening group sessions. Patients were studied before and 1, 6, and 18 months after the course. Main outcome measures were glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycaemic events, quality of life (DQoL), diabetes self-control (IPC-9) and diabetes knowledge (DWT). RESULTS: Quality of life, self-control and diabetes knowledge improved after the FIT courses (all p<0.001). The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic events decreased ten-fold from 0.33 episodes/6 months at baseline to 0.03 episodes/6 months after 18 months (p<0.05). Baseline HbA1c was 7.2+/-1.1% and decreased in the subgroup with HbA1c > or = 8% from 8.4% to 7.8% (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected, but relatively well-controlled population of type 1 diabetes, a structured, but not very time consuming FIT teaching programme in the outpatient setting improves psychological well-being and metabolic parameters.

Cyclododecane exposure in the field of conservation and restoration of art objects

PURPOSE: Recent work practices in the conservation and restoration involve the use of cyclododecane (CDD, CAS 294-62-2) to protect fragile artifacts during their handling or transportation. Little is known about its toxicity, and no previous exposure has been reported. A short field investigation was conducted to characterize the exposure conditions to both CDD vapors and aerosols.METHODS: Measurements were conducted in the laboratory of conservation and restoration of the archeological service in Bern (Switzerland). Three indoor and four outdoor typical work situations, either during brush or spray gun applications, were investigated. Measurements were performed on charcoal adsorbent tube and analyzed by a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector.RESULTS: Measurements have been conducted during both brush and spray gun applications. Indoor exposures were of 0.75-15.5 mg/m(3), while outdoors exposures were 19.5-53.9 mg/m(3). Exposures appear to be extremely localized due to both physicochemical properties and application methods of the CDD. Vapor exposure increases dramatically with the confinement of the workplace.CONCLUSION: Preventive measures should be undertaken to limit as much as possible these exposures. Field work in confined areas (ditches, underground) is of particular concern. CDD-coated artifacts or materials should be stored in ventilated areas to avoid delayed exposures. [Authors]

Seasonal activity of Dinoponera quadriceps Santschi (Formicidae, Ponerinae) in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil

Seasonal activity of Dinoponera quadriceps Santschi (Formicidae, Ponerinae) in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil. We studied seasonal foraging patterns of the queenless ant D. quadriceps (Formicidae, Ponerinae) for 24 months in a Caatinga area of northeastern Brazil, an ecosystem characterized by strong climatic changes throughout the year, in order to determine if regulation of worker activity is based on environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and/or food resources (potential prey: Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera, Orthoptera, Araneae, Chilopoda and Diplopoda). Foraging activity of D. quadriceps varied over the course of both years, with the highest frequency occurring from May to August, corresponding to the late rainy season and early dry season. This foraging activity was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with the availability of potential prey, but not with total abundance of soil arthropods or with rainfall and relative humidity. Diet composition, in relation to the main taxonomic prey groups, seems to be common to the species, regardless of habitat. Our results suggest that D. quadriceps workers adjust foraging activity to the most suitable period of the year, to avoid thermal stress and increase efficiency. Thus, they present an appropriate behavioral response to seasonal fluctuations in the Caatinga.

Adaptive sequence evolution in a color gene involved in the formation of the characteristic egg-dummies of male haplochromine cichlid fishes.

BACKGROUND: The exceptionally diverse species flocks of cichlid fishes in East Africa are prime examples of parallel adaptive radiations. About 80% of East Africa's more than 1 800 endemic cichlid species, and all species of the flocks of Lakes Victoria and Malawi, belong to a particularly rapidly evolving lineage, the haplochromines. One characteristic feature of the haplochromines is their possession of egg-dummies on the males' anal fins. These egg-spots mimic real eggs and play an important role in the mating system of these maternal mouthbrooding fish. RESULTS: Here, we show that the egg-spots of haplochromines are made up of yellow pigment cells, xanthophores, and that a gene coding for a type III receptor tyrosine kinase, colony-stimulating factor 1 receptor a (csf1ra), is expressed in egg-spot tissue. Molecular evolutionary analyses reveal that the extracellular ligand-binding and receptor-interacting domain of csf1ra underwent adaptive sequence evolution in the ancestral lineage of the haplochromines, coinciding with the emergence of egg-dummies. We also find that csf1ra is expressed in the egg-dummies of a distantly related cichlid species, the ectodine cichlid Ophthalmotilapia ventralis, in which markings with similar functions evolved on the pelvic fin in convergence to those of the haplochromines. CONCLUSION: We conclude that modifications of existing signal transduction mechanisms might have evolved in the haplochromine lineage in association with the origination of anal fin egg-dummies. That positive selection has acted during the evolution of a color gene that seems to be involved in the morphogenesis of a sexually selected trait, the egg-dummies, highlights the importance of further investigations of the comparative genomic basis of the phenotypic diversification of cichlid fishes.

Variations of CYP3A activity induced by antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1 infected patients.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the in vivo variations of CYP3A activity induced by anti-HIV drugs in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)1-positive patients. METHODS: A low oral dose of midazolam (MID) (0.075 mg) was given to the patients and the 30-min total 1-OH midazolam (1-OHMID)/MID ratio was determined. Patients were phenotyped either before the introduction of antiretroviral treatments (control group, 90 patients) or after a variable period of antiretroviral treatment (56 patients). Twenty-one subjects underwent multiple phenotyping tests (before and during the course of the treatment). RESULTS: The median MID ratio was 3.51 in the control group (range 0.20-14.6). It was 5-fold higher in the group with efavirenz (28 patients; median, range: 16.0, 3.81-367; P < 0.0001), 13-fold lower with nelfinavir (18 patients; 0.27, 0.06-36.3; P < 0.0001), 17-fold lower with efavirenz + ritonavir (three patients; 0.21, 0.05-0.47; P = 0.006), 50-fold lower with ritonavir (four patients; 0.07, 0.06-0.17; P = 0.0007), and 7-fold lower with nevirapine + (ritonavir or nelfinavir or grapefruit juice) (three patients; 0.48, 0.03-1.83; P = 0.03). CYP3A activity was lower in the efavirenz + ritonavir group (P = 0.01) and in the ritonavir group (P = 0.04) than in the nelfinavir group, although already strongly inhibited in the latter. CONCLUSION: The low-dose MID phenotyping test was successfully used to measure the in vivo variations of CYP3A activity induced by antiretroviral drugs. Efavirenz strongly induces CYP3A activity, while ritonavir almost completely inhibits it. Nelfinavir strongly decreases CYP3A activity, but to a lesser extent than ritonavir. The inhibition of CYP3A by ritonavir or nelfinavir offsets the inductive effects of efavirenz or nevirapine administered concomitantly. Finally, no induction of CYP3A activity was noticeable after long-term administration of ritonavir at low dosages (200 mg/day b.i.d.) or of nelfinavir at standard dosages (2,500 mg/day b.i.d.).

Taking Chances on Integrity: An Investigation of the Iowa Lottery

The Iowa Lottery has failed to adequately protect its customers from fraud and theft by retailers. That is the key conclusion of the Iowa Citizens’ Aide/Ombudsman in a critical report released today. The 210-page report, which makes 60 recommendations to the Lottery, is the culmination of a year-and-a-half-long investigation into how the Lottery polices and prevents retailer fraud and theft. In general, the Ombudsman found that the Lottery has maintained a weak, reactive enforcement system that fails to detect retailer dishonesty independently of customer complaints. This means that there likely have been instances of fraud – possibly largescale fraud – that have gone undetected. The Ombudsman’s examination marks the first time the Iowa Lottery’s investigative files have been audited by an outside authority. It also appears to be the first full-scale investigation of its kind in the United States.

Dynamic social representations of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: Shifting patterns of sense-making and blame

We investigate dynamics of public perceptions of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to understand changing patterns of sense-making and blame regarding the outbreak of emerging infectious diseases. We draw on social representation theory combined with a dramaturgical perspective to identify changes in how various collectives are depicted over the course of the pandemic, according to three roles: heroes, villains and victims. Quantitative results based on content analysis of three cross-sectional waves of interviews show a shift from mentions of distant collectives (e.g., far-flung countries) at Wave 1 to local collectives (e.g., risk groups) as the pandemic became of more immediate concern (Wave 2) and declined (Wave 3). Semi-automated content analysis of media coverage shows similar results. Thematic analyses of the discourse associated with collectives revealed that many were consistently perceived as heroes, villains and victims.

Six Years of Denosumab Treatment in Postmenopausal Women with Osteoporosis: Results From the First Three Years of the FREEDOM Extension

Background/Purpose: Denosumab (DMAb) is an approved therapy for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at increased risk for fracture. A favorable risk/benefit profile was demonstrated in the pivotal, 3-year FREEDOM trial (Cummings et al NEJM 2009). The open-label, active-treatment FREEDOM Extension study is investigating the efficacy and safety of DMAb for up to 10 years. The Extension trial enrolled women who had received DMAb or placebo in FREEDOM and provides an opportunity to evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of continuous DMAb treatment (long-term group), and to replicate the DMAb findings observed in FREEDOM (cross-over group). Here, we report the results from the first 3 years of the Extension, representing up to 6 continuous years of DMAb exposure. Methods: During the Extension, each woman is scheduled to receive 60 mg DMAb every 6 months and supplemental calcium and vitamin D daily. For the analyses reported here, women from the FREEDOM DMAb group received 3 more years of DMAb for a total of 6 years of exposure (long-term group) and women from the FREEDOM placebo group received 3 years of DMAb exposure (cross-over group). Results: Of the 5928 women eligible for the Extension, 4550 (77%) enrolled (N_2343 long-term; N_2207 cross-over). In the long-term group, further significant mean increases in bone mineral density (BMD) occurred 4044 for cumulative 6-year gains of 15.2% at the lumbar spine and 7.5% at the total hip (Figure). During the first 3 years of DMAb treatment during the Extension, the cross-over group had significant mean gains in BMD at the lumbar spine (9.4%) and total hip (4.8%), similar to those observed in the long-term DMAb group during the first 3 years of FREEDOM (lumbar spine, 10.1%; total hip, 5.7%). Serum CTX was rapidly and similarly reduced after the 1st (cross-over) or 7th (long-term) DMAb dose with the characteristic attenuation observed at the end of the dosing period. In the cross-over group, yearly incidences of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures were lower than in the FREEDOM placebo group. Fracture incidence remained low in the long-term group. Incidences of adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs did not increase over time with DMAb treatment. There were 2 subjects with AEs adjudicated to ONJ in the cross-over group and 2 in the long-term group. Both cases in the cross-over group healed completely and without further complications; 1 of these subjects continues to receive DMAb. Both women in the long-term group continue to be followed. No atypical femur fractures have been observed to date. Figure. Percent changes in bone mineral density during FREEDOM and the Extension Conclusion: DMAb treatment for 6 continuous years (long-term group) remained well tolerated, maintained reduced bone turnover, and continued to significantly increase BMD. Fracture incidence remained low. DMAb treatment for 3 years in the cross-over group reproduced the original observations in FREEDOM

Indústria, mineria i artesania en toponímia rural: el cas del municipi d’Osor (la Selva)

The study presented is interdisciplinary names: the presence of place names related with industrial, artisanal or mining activities in rural areas. The main hypothesis refers to this fact; the uniqueness of industrial, mining or craft in a rural area is an important reason to influence their names, a fact that gives archaeological value, remembering economic activities now disappeared. The methodology used for the study has been usually applied in onomastic studies: compilation of names from field work, oral interviews, archival work, revision of ancient documents and revision of works and studies related to the cartography of Osor. The final conclusion is that, as proposed in the hypothesis, in a rural area as the studied, the low presence of industrial, artisanal or mining activities have generated place names that have helped in keeping the memory of economic activities now disappeared

Genetics of Parkinson's disease: the yield.

The discovery of genes implicated in familial forms of Parkinson's disease (PD) has provided new insights into the molecular events leading to neurodegeneration. Clinically, patients with genetically determined PD can be difficult to distinguish from those with sporadic PD. Monogenic causes include autosomal dominantly (SNCA, LRRK2, VPS35, EIF4G1) as well as recessively (PARK2, PINK1, DJ-1) inherited mutations. Additional recessive forms of parkinsonism present with atypical signs, including very early disease onset, dystonia, dementia and pyramidal signs. New techniques in the search for phenotype-associated genes (next-generation sequencing, genome-wide association studies) have expanded the spectrum of both monogenic PD and variants that alter risk to develop PD. Examples of risk genes include the two lysosomal enzyme coding genes GBA and SMPD1, which are associated with a 5-fold and 9-fold increased risk of PD, respectively. It is hoped that further knowledge of the genetic makeup of PD will allow designing treatments that alter the course of the disease.

The response of a Swiss university hospital's palliative care consult team to assisted suicide within the institution.

In January 2006 the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CHUV), a large university hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, became the first hospital in Switzerland to allow assisted suicide (AS) in exceptional cases within its walls. However, euthanasia is illegal. This decision has posed several ethical and practical dilemmas for the hospital's palliative care consult service. To address these, the team embarked on a formal process of open dialogue amongst its members with the goal of identifying a collective response and position. This process involved meetings every 4 to 6 weeks over the course of 10 months. An iterative process unfolded. One of the principal dilemmas relates to finding a balance between the team's position against AS and the patient's autonomy and the institution's directive. Although all team members expressed opposition to AS, there were mixed opinions as to whether or not the team members should be present during the act if requested so by patients. Some thought this could be misinterpreted as complicity in the act and could send out mixed messages to the public and other health professionals about palliative care. Others felt that the team's commitment to nonabandonment obliged them to be present even if they did not provide the drug or give any advice or assistance. The implications of nonabandonment are explored, as are several other questions such as whether or not the teams are obliged to provide detailed information on AS when requested by patients.