Context-sensitive evaluation: Determining the context surrounding the implementation of a government policy

This article explains the essence of the context-sensitive parameters and dimensions in play at the time of an intervention, through the application of Rog’s (2012) model of contextual parameters. Rog’s model offers evaluators a structured approach to examine an intervention. The initial study provided a systematic way to clarify the scope, variables, timing, and appropriate evaluation methodology to evaluate the implementation of a government policy. Given that the government implementation of an educational intervention under study did not follow the experimental research approach, nor the double cycle of action research approach, the application of Rog’s model provided an in-depth understanding of the context-sensitive environment; it is from this clear purpose that the broader evaluation was conducted. Overall, when governments or institutions implement policy to invoke educational change (and this intervention is not guided by an appropriate evaluation approach), then program evaluation is achievable post-implementation. In this situation, Rog’s (2012) model of contextual parameters is a useful way to achieve clarity of purpose to guide the program evaluation.

Poisoning for production: how effective is fox baiting in south-eastern Australia?

1. The European red fox Vulpes vulpes represents a continuing threat to both livestock and native vertebrates in Australia, and is commonly managed by setting ground-level baits impregnated with 1080 (sodium fluoroacetate) poison. However, the long-term effectiveness of such control campaigns is likely to be limited due to the ability of foxes to disperse over considerable distances and to swiftly recolonize areas from where they had been removed. 2. To investigate the effectiveness of fox baiting in a production landscape, we assessed the potential for foxes to reinvade baited farm property areas within the jurisdiction of the Molong Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB), an area of 815 000 ha on the central tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. The spatial distribution and timing of fox baiting campaigns between 1998 and 2002 was estimated from RLPB records and mapped using Geographical Information System software. The effectiveness of the control campaign was assessed on the basis of the likely immigration of foxes from non-baited farms using immigration distances calculated from published relationships between dispersal distance and home range size. 3. Few landholders undertook baiting campaigns in any given year, and the area baited was always so small that no baited property would have been sufficiently far from an unbaited property to have been immune from immigrating individuals. It is likely, therefore, that immigration onto farms negated any long-term effects of baiting operations. This study highlights some of the key deficiencies in current baiting practices in south-eastern Australia and suggests that pest management programmes should be monitored using such methods to ensure they achieve their goals.

Limb-loss in pond-reared blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus (L.): Effect on growth in an indoor shedding system

Limb-loss in crustaceans can reduce moult increment and delay or advance the timing of moulting, both aspects that are likely to impact upon soft-shell crab production. Pond-reared blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus were harvested and maintained in a crab shedding system. The wet weight, carapace width (CW) and the occurrence of limb-loss were assessed before stocking in the shedding system and after each of the next three moults. Many of the crabs were initially missing one or two limbs and these did not grow as much as the crabs that were intact at the start of the trial. Despite its strong correlation with wet weight, CW changes proved to be misleading. Limb-loss reduced the %CW increment but not the per cent weight increment (where the later is calculated from the actual pre-moult weight). Pre-moult weight explained much of the variation in post-moult weight, with crabs moulting to approximately double their weight. Limb-loss reduced 'growth' and production from the pond because it reduced pre-moult weight but limb-loss did not alter the weight change on shedding a given weight of crabs, although some of that change now included regeneration of limbs. One can hypothesize that much of the size variation seen in pond-reared crabs may be due to accumulated effects of repeated limb-loss, rather than genetic variation.

Counterclockwise exhumation of a hot orogen: The Paleoproterozoic ultrahigh-temperature granulites in the North China Craton

Regional metamorphic belts provide important constraints on the plate tectonic architecture of orogens. We report here a detailed petrologic examination of the sapphirine-bearing ultra-high temperature (UHT) granulites from the Jining Complex within the Khondalite Belt of the North China Craton (NCC). These granulites carry diagnostic UHT assemblages and their microstructures provide robust evidence to trace the prograde, peak and retrograde metamorphic evolution. The P–T conditions of the granulites estimated from XMgGrt(Mg/Fe + Mg) − XMgSpr isopleth calculations indicate temperature above 970 °C and pressures close to 7 kbar. We present phase diagrams based on thermodynamic computations to evaluate the mineral assemblages and microstructures and trace the metamorphic trajectory of the rocks. The evolution from Spl–Qtz–Ilm–Crd–Grt–Sil to Spr–Qtz–Crd–Opx–Ilm marks the prograde stage. The Spl–Qtz assemblage appears on the low-pressure side of the P–T space with Spr–Qtz stable at the high-pressure side, possibly representing an increase in pressure corresponding to compression. The spectacular development of sapphirine rims around spinel enclosed in quartz supports this inference. An evaluation of the key UHT assemblages based on model proportion calculation suggests a counterclockwise P–T path. With few exceptions, granulite-facies rocks developed along collisional metamorphic zones have generally been characterized by clockwise exhumation trajectories. Recent evaluation of the P–T paths of metamorphic rocks developed within collisional orogens indicates that in many cases the exhumation trajectories follow the model subduction geotherm, in accordance with a tectonic model in which the metamorphic rocks are subducted and exhumed along a plate boundary. The timing of UHT metamorphism in the NCC (c. 1.92 Ga) coincides with the assembly of the NCC within the Paleoproterozoic Columbia supercontinent, a process that would have involved subduction of passive margins sediments and closure of the intervening ocean. Thus, the counterclockwise P–T path obtained in this study correlates well with a tectonic model involving subduction and final collisional suturing, with the UHT granulites representing the core of the hot or ultra-hot orogen developed during Columbia amalgamation.

Fishery biology and management of Protonibea diacanthus (Sciaenidae) aggregations in far Northern Cape York Peninsula waters

The sciaenid Protonibea diacanthus is a large, long-lived predatory fish of inshore northern Australian waters, which forms annual aggregations that are fished extensively by traditional (subsistence) and recreational fishers. There are now widespread concerns that the resource is being overexploited. Indigenous fishers of the Cape York Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) relate that large adult fish (up to 1500 mm total length (TL)) made up the bulk of the catch from the sciaenid aggregations until about 1994. In contrast, sexually mature P. diacanthus comprised only a small component (12 fish out of 270=4.4%) examined in a 1999–2000 sampling programme that was biased towards the largest individuals available. At 790 mm TL, the minimum size at first maturity for female P. diacanthus in this study is much smaller than the 920 mm TL reported previously in Queensland waters. Developing ovaries were observed in specimens sampled from sciaenid aggregations which formed in NPA waters between May and September 2000. However, no fish with ripe or spent gonads were found in the study, so the current timing and location of the spawning season for P. diacanthus in the region remain unknown. Food items observed in the analysis of the diet of P. diacanthus from the NPA included a variety of teleosts and invertebrates. The range of animal taxa represented in the prey items support the description of an ‘opportunistic predator’ attributed to the species. In our sampling, the stomach contents of fish caught during the time of the aggregation events did not differ from those observed at other times of the year. A total of 114 P. diacanthus were tagged and released at aggregation sites during the study period, and 3 fish (2.6%) were subsequently recaptured. The low rate of tag returns from the wild stock tagging programme, both in this study (2.6%) and from recreational fisher tag/release programmes for the sciaenid elsewhere in Queensland (6.5%), were not explained by tag loss nor mortality, given the high retention rate of tags and the zero mortality seen in tank trials. In response to the biological findings from this study, indigenous community councils of the NPA imposed a 2-year fishing moratorium for P. diacanthus. Surveys at aggregation sites in 2002 and 2003 established that much larger fish (mean size 103.5 cm TL) were again present on the grounds, albeit in very low numbers. These recent preliminary results highlight the critical need for continued monitoring and management of the P. diacanthus fishery in the NPA, if prospects for resource recovery are to be realised. The NPA initiative has provided a rare opportunity to negotiate a co-management strategy, based on scientific data and traditional knowledge, for the recovery of a cultural and economically significant fished resource.

The original native pasture ecosystems of the eastern and western Darling Downs - Can they be restored?

The original pasture ecosystems of southern inland Queensland ranged from treeless grasslands on cracking clays through grassy woodlands of varying density on a great range of soil types to those competing at the dynamic edges of forests and scrubs. Fire, both wild and aboriginal-managed, was a major factor, along with rainfall extremes, in shaping the pastures and tree:grass balance. Seedling recruitment was driven by rainfall extremes, availability of germinable seed and growing space, with seed availability and space being linked to the timing and intensity of recent fires and rain. The impact of insects, diseases, severe wind and hailstorms on recruitment should not be underestimated. The more fertile soils had denser grass growth, greater fire frequency and thinner tree cover than infertile soils, except where trees were so dense that grass growth was almost eliminated. The pastures were dominated by perennial tussock grasses of mid-height but included a wide array of minor herbaceous species whose abundance was linked to soil type and recent seasonal conditions. Many were strongly perennial with Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, Cyperaceae and Goodeniaceae most common in an environment, which can experience effective rainfall at any time of year. The former grassland communities that are now productive farming lands are not easily returned to their original composition. However, conservation of remnant examples of original pasture types is very achievable provided tree density is controlled, prescribed burning and grazing are used and rigorous control of invasive, exotic species is undertaken. This should be done with a clear understanding that significant short-and medium-term fluctuations in botanical composition are normal.

Influence of food supplementation on the fitness of two biological control agents: a predatory nabid bug and a bollworm pupal parasitoid

Many arthropod predators and parasitoids exhibit either stage-specific or lifetime omnivory, in that they include extra-floral nectar, floral nectar, honeydew or pollen in their immature and/or adult diet. Access to these plant-derived foods can enhance pest suppression by increasing both the individual fitness and local density of natural enemies. Commercial products such as Amino-Feed®, Envirofeast®, and Pred-Feed® can be applied to crops to act as artificial-plant-derived foods. In laboratory and glasshouse experiments we examined the influence of carbohydrate and protein rich Amino-Feed UV® or Amino-Feed, respectively, on the fitness of a predatory nabid bug Nabis kinbergii Reuter (Hemiptera: Nabidae) and bollworm pupal parasitoid Ichneumon promissorius (Erichson) (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae). Under the chosen conditions, the provision of either wet or dry residues of Amino-Feed UV had no discernable effect on immediate or longer-term survival and immature development times of N. kinbergii. In contrast, the provision of honey, Amino-Feed plus extrafloral nectar, and extrafloral nectar alone had a marked effect on the longevity of I. promissorius, indicating that they were limited by at least carbohydrates as an energy source, but probably not protein. Compared with a water only diet, the provision of Amino-Feed plus extrafloral nectar increased the longevity of males and females of I. promissorius by 3.0- and 2.4-fold, respectively. Not only did female parasitoids live longer when provided food, but the total number of eggs laid and timing of deposition was affected by diet under the chosen conditions. Notably, females in the water and honey treatments deposited greater numbers of eggs earlier in the trial, but this trend was unable to be sustained over their lifetime. Egg numbers in these treatments subsequently fell below the levels achieved by females in the Amino-Feed plus extrafloral nectar and cotton extrafloral nectar only treatments. Furthermore, there were times when the inclusion of the Amino-Feed was beneficial compared with cotton extrafloral nectar only. Artificial food supplements and plant-derived foods are worthy of further investigation because they have potential to improve the ecosystem service of biological pest control in targeted agroecosystems by providing natural enemies with an alternative source of nutrition, particularly during periods of prey/host scarcity.

A fuzzy logic based dynamic wave model inversion algorithm for canal regulation

A fuzzy logic based centralized control algorithm for irrigation canals is presented. Purpose of the algorithm is to control downstream discharge and water level of pools in the canal, by adjusting discharge release from the upstream end and gates settings. The algorithm is based on the dynamic wave model (Saint-Venant equations) inversion in space, wherein the momentum equation is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on fuzzification of a new mathematical model for wave velocity, the derivational details of which are given. The advantages of the fuzzy control algorithm, over other conventional control algorithms, are described. It is transparent and intuitive, and no linearizations of the governing equations are involved. Timing of the algorithm and method of computation are explained. It is shown that the tuning is easy and the computations are straightforward. The algorithm provides stable, realistic and robust outputs. The disadvantage of the algorithm is reduced precision in its outputs due to the approximation inherent in the fuzzy logic. Feed back control logic is adopted to eliminate error caused by the system disturbances as well as error caused by the reduced precision in the outputs. The algorithm is tested by applying it to water level control problem in a fictitious canal with a single pool and also in a real canal with a series of pools. It is found that results obtained from the algorithm are comparable to those obtained from conventional control algorithms.

An analysis of TLS handshake proxying

Content delivery networks (CDNs) are an essential component of modern website infrastructures: edge servers located closer to users cache content, increasing robustness and capacity while decreasing latency. However, this situation becomes complicated for HTTPS content that is to be delivered using the Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol: the edge server must be able to carry out TLS handshakes for the cached domain. Most commercial CDNs require that the domain owner give their certificate's private key to the CDN's edge server or abandon caching of HTTPS content entirely. We examine the security and performance of a recently commercialized delegation technique in which the domain owner retains possession of their private key and splits the TLS state machine geographically with the edge server using a private key proxy service. This allows the domain owner to limit the amount of trust given to the edge server while maintaining the benefits of CDN caching. On the performance front, we find that latency is slightly worse compared to the insecure approach, but still significantly better than the domain owner serving the content directly. On the security front, we enumerate the security goals for TLS handshake proxying and identify a subtle difference between the security of RSA key transport and signed-Diffie--Hellman in TLS handshake proxying; we also discuss timing side channel resistance of the key server and the effect of TLS session resumption.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Survival of bottlenose dolphin (tursiops sp.) calves at a wild dolphin provisioning program, Tangalooma, Australia

Mortality of calves born to provisioned mothers is identified in the literature as an issue of concern in dolphin provisioning programs. Wild dolphin provisioning at Tangalooma, Moreton Island, Australia has been occurring since 1992. Each evening, up to eight dolphins are provided with fish in a regulated provisioning program. In this paper, calf survival at the Tangalooma provisioning program is reported and contrasted with that from wild populations and from a similar provisioning program at Monkey Mia, Western Australia. At Tangalooma, the calf survival rate is 100%, including both orphaned and first-born calves, both of which are expected to have relatively low survival rates. Possible explanations for the high calf survival rate are explored. These include site attributes such as isolated location and high water quality, aspects of foraging ecology likely to benefit calves of provisioned mothers, and the management regime used in the provisioning program (e.g., duration and timing of provisioning; quality of provisioned fish).

Modelling environmental effects on phenology and canopy development of diverse sorghum genotypes

The ability to predict phenology and canopy development is critical in crop models used for simulating likely consequences of alternative crop management and cultivar choice strategies. Here we quantify and contrast the temperature and photoperiod responses for phenology and canopy development of a diverse range of elite Indian and Australian sorghum genotypes (hybrid and landrace). Detailed field experiments were undertaken in Australia and India using a range of genotypes, sowing dates, and photoperiod extension treatments. Measurements of timing of developmental stages and leaf appearance were taken. The generality of photo-thermal approaches to modelling phenological and canopy development was tested. Environmental and genotypic effects on rate of progression from emergence to floral initiation (E-FI) were explained well using a multiplicative model, which combined the intrinsic development rate (Ropt), with responses to temperature and photoperiod. Differences in Ropt and extent of the photoperiod response explained most genotypic effects. Average leaf initiation rate (LIR), leaf appearance rate and duration of the phase from anthesis to physiological maturity differed among genotypes. The association of total leaf number (TLN) with photoperiod found for all genotypes could not be fully explained by effects on development and LIRs. While a putative effect of photoperiod on LIR would explain the observations, other possible confounding factors, such as air-soil temperature differential and the nature of model structure were considered and discussed. This study found a generally robust predictive capacity of photo-thermal development models across diverse ranges of both genotypes and environments. Hence, they remain the most appropriate models for simulation analysis of genotype-by-management scenarios in environments varying broadly in temperature and photoperiod.

Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Anticipatory and reactive response to falls: Muscle synergy activation of forearm muscles

We investigated the surface electromyogram response of six forearm muscles to falls onto the outstretched hand. The extensor carpi radialis longus, extensor carpi radialis brevis, extensor carpi ulnaris, abductor pollicis longus, flexor carpi radialis and flexor carpi ulnaris muscles were sampled from eight volunteers who underwent ten self-initiated falls. All muscles initiated prior to impact. Co-contraction is the most obvious surface electromyogram feature. The predominant response is in the radial deviators. The surface electromyogram timing we recorded would appear to be a complex anticipatory response to falling modified by the ef- fect on the forearm muscles following impact. The mitigation of the force of impact is probably more importantly through shoulder abduction and extension and elbow flexion rather than action of the forearm muscles.

Are we focussing wild dog control the wrong time of the year and going about it the wrong way?

Our evaluation of the predation of calves by wild dogs in the 1990s found that the number of calves killed and frequency of years that calf losses occurred, is higher in baited areas compared to adjoining, non-baited areas of similar size. Calf losses were highest with poor seasonal conditions, low prey numbers and where baited areas were re-colonised by wild dogs soon after baiting. We monitored wild dog “activity” before and after 35 baiting programs in southwest, central west and far north Queensland between 1994 and 2006 and found change in activity depends on the timing of the baiting. Baiting programs conducted between October and April show an increase in dog activity post-baiting (average increase of 219.1%, SEM 100.9, n=9, for programs conducted in October and November; an increase of 82.5%, SEM 54.5, n=7 for programs conducted in March and April; and a decrease in activity of 46.5%, SEM 10.2, n=19 for programs conducted between May and September). We monitored the seasonal activity and dispersal of wild dogs fitted with satellite transmitters 2006 to present. We have found that: • Activity of breeding males and females, whilst rearing and nurturing pups, is focussed around the den between July to September and away from areas of human activity. Activity of breeding groups appears to avoid locations of human activity until juveniles become independent (around late November). • While independent and solitary yearlings often have unstable, elliptically-shaped territories in less favourable areas, members of breeding groups have territories that appear seasonally stable and circular located in more favourable habitats. • Extra-territorial forays of solitary yearlings can be huge, in excess of 200 km. The largest forays we have monitored have occurred when the activity of pack members is focussed around rearing pups and juveniles (August to November). • Where wild dogs have dispersed or had significant territorial expansion, it has occurred within days of baiting programs and onto recently baited properties. • The wild dogs we have tracked have followed netting barrier fences for hundreds of kilometres and lived adjacent to or bypassed numerous grids in the barrier. Based on these studies, we conclude that a proportion of the perceived decline in dog activity between May and September, post baiting, is due to a decline in dog activity in areas associated with human activity. The increase in dog activity post-baiting between October and May (and increased calf predation on baited properties) is likely caused by wild dogs dispersing (juveniles and yearlings) or expanding (adults) their territory into baited, now ‘vacant’, areas. We hypothesise that baiting programs should be focussed in summer and autumn commencing late November as soon as juveniles become independent of adults. We also hypothesise that instead of large, annual or semi-annual baiting programs, laying the same number of baits over 4-6 weeks may be more effective. These hypotheses need to be tested through an adaptive management project.