Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.

Modelling the Provenance of Data in Autonomous Systems

Determining the provenance of data, i.e. the process that led to that data, is vital in many disciplines. For example, in science, the process that produced a given result must be demonstrably rigorous for the result to be deemed reliable. A provenance system supports applications in recording adequate documentation about process executions to answer queries regarding provenance, and provides functionality to perform those queries. Several provenance systems are being developed, but all focus on systems in which the components are textitreactive, for example Web Services that act on the basis of a request, job submission system, etc. This limitation means that questions regarding the motives of autonomous actors, or textitagents, in such systems remain unanswerable in the general case. Such questions include: who was ultimately responsible for a given effect, what was their reason for initiating the process and does the effect of a process match what was intended to occur by those initiating the process? In this paper, we address this limitation by integrating two solutions: a generic, re-usable framework for representing the provenance of data in service-oriented architectures and a model for describing the goal-oriented delegation and engagement of agents in multi-agent systems. Using these solutions, we present algorithms to answer common questions regarding responsibility and success of a process and evaluate the approach with a simulated healthcare example.

Modelling and Administration of Contract-Based Systems

Mirroring the paper versions exchanged between businesses today, electronic contracts offer the possibility of dynamic, automatic creation and enforcement of restrictions and compulsions on agent behaviour that are designed to ensure business objectives are met. However, where there are many contracts within a particular application, it can be difficult to determine whether the system can reliably fulfil them all; computer-parsable electronic contracts may allow such verification to be automated. In this paper, we describe a conceptual framework and architecture specification in which normative business contracts can be electronically represented, verified, established, renewed, etc. In particular, we aim to allow systems containing multiple contracts to be checked for conflicts and violations of business objectives. We illustrate the framework and architecture with an aerospace example.

A contract-based system for aerospace aftercare

The logistics of the aerospace aftermarket raises a number of very interesting challenges from the perspective of electronic contracting. This is a highly dynamic domain, where contracts are established between airlines and engine manufacturers, as well as between engine manufacturers all the way down the supply lines, providing a particularly illustrative showcase for the technologies developed in the CONTRACT project. In this paper, we describe such a domain, as well as our modelling of it as a multiagent simulator where the CONTRACT framework has been used to monitor for compliance with norms.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

A feasibility study for modelling tie strength with the facebook API

This thesis examines the concept of tie strength and investigates how it can be determined on the fly in the Facebook Social Network Service (SNS) by a system constructed using the standard developer API. We analyze and compare two different models: the first one is an adaptation of previous literature (Gilbert & Karahalios, 2009), the second model is built from scratch and based on a dataset obtained from an online survey. This survey took the form of a Facebook application that collected subjective ratings of the strength of 1642 ties (friendships) from 85 different participants. The new tie strength model was built based on this dataset by using a multiple regression method. We saw that the new model performed slightly better than the original adapted model, plus it had the advantage of being easier to implement. In conclusion, this thesis has shown that tie strength models capable of serving as useful friendship predictors are easily implementable in a Facebook application via standard API calls. In addition to a new tie strength model, the methodology adopted in this work permitted observation of the weights of each predictive variable used in the model, increasing the visibility of the factors that affects peoples’ relationships in online social networks.

Stochastic modelling considering ionospheric scintillation effects on GNSS relative and point positioning

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ecological efficiency and thermoeconomic analysis of a cogeneration system at a hospital

This work aims with an approach for cogeneration plants evaluation based on thermoeconomic functional diagram analysis. The second law of thermodynamics is used to develop a methodology to analyse cogeneration systems, based on exergoeconomics evaluation. The thermoeconomic optimisation method developed is applied to allow a better configuration of the cogeneration plant associated to a university hospital. Also ecological efficiency is evaluated. The method was efficient and contributes for thermoeconomics modelling and analysis and can be applied to any sort of thermal system, especially those with combined heat and power in thermal parity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A contribution for thermoeconomic modelling: A methodology proposal

This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for the plankton system of the Broa reservoir, Sao Carlos, Brazil

In this paper a model, called ELLOBO running in STELLA II, was set to describe the plankton system of the Broa reservoir (SP). The three state variables of the model are: phytoplankton, zooplankton, and the fish Astyanax fasciatus. The forcing variables are: temperature, nitrate, phosphorus and solar radiation. The model did not consider the cycling of nutrients inside the reservoir. The results show that: temperature is the principal forcing variable in the phytoplankton dynamic and in the subsequent evolution of the whole system. The zooplankton predation was described by Odum's equation, and there is a strong random component in zooplankton grazing, which was essential for the model, because zooplankton estimates have high variance. One must collect data in a short space of time (maybe daily) to better explain the zooplankton and phytoplankton variation. Validation was performed using simple statistics (arithmetic mean, standard deviation) and the results show concordance between observed and simulated values. Overhead was used to calibrate some parameters and to validate the model. The highest overhead value (5%) imply in the better accordance between estimated and;observed state variables values. We believe this approach in Broa reservoir will provide an useful tool for future research and it could be used comparatively in other continental aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-Dimensional Modelling of Honeybee Venom Allergenic Proteases: Relation to Allergenicity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Transmission system expansion planning by a branch-and-bound algorithm

A branch and bound (B& B) algorithm using the DC model, to solve the power system transmission expansion planning by incorporating the electrical losses in network modelling problem is presented. This is a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem, and in this approach, the so-called fathoming tests in the B&B algorithm were redefined and a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem is solved in each node of the B& B tree, using an interior-point method. Pseudocosts were used to manage the development of the B&B tree and to decrease its size and the processing time. There is no guarantee of convergence towards global optimisation for the MINLP problem. However, preliminary tests show that the algorithm easily converges towards the best-known solutions or to the optimal solutions for all the tested systems neglecting the electrical losses. When the electrical losses are taken into account, the solution obtained using the Garver system is better than the best one known in the literature.

Towards an intelligent graphical interface for linear programming modelling

The increase of computing power of the microcomputers has stimulated the building of direct manipulation interfaces that allow graphical representation of Linear Programming (LP) models. This work discusses the components of such a graphical interface as the basis for a system to assist users in the process of formulating LP problems. In essence, this work proposes a methodology which considers the modelling task as divided into three stages which are specification of the Data Model, the Conceptual Model and the LP Model. The necessity for using Artificial Intelligence techniques in the problem conceptualisation and to help the model formulation task is illustrated.

Investigation into the impact of embedded generators on distribution system performance using theorem of superposition

Since the 1980s, huge efforts have been made to utilise renewable energy sources to generate electric power. One of the interesting issues about embedded generators is the question of optimal placement and sizing of the embedded generators. This paper reports an investigation of impact of the integration of embedded generators on the overall performances of the distribution networks in the steady state, using theorem of superposition. Set of distribution system indices is proposed to observe performances of the distribution networks with embedded generators. Results obtained from the case study using IEEE test network are presented and discussed.