Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

Non-small cell lung cancer: the prevalence of oncogenic driver mutations in Switzerland

Background. Predictive molecular marker analyses are standard of care in order to select non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients for targeted therapies. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of targetable oncogenic driver mutations including EGFR, KRAS, BRAF, HER2, ALK and ROS1 in Switzerland. Methods. Eight Swiss pathology institutions provided retrospective and anonymized data on their predictive molecular marker results performed on NSCLC from January 2012 to December 2014. Clinico-pathological data were recorded including age, gender, histological NSCLC-subtype and specimen type (biopsy, conventional cytology and cell block, respectively) used for molecular analyses. The prevalence of oncogenic mutations were calculated and compared between the centres. Results. A total of 4187 NSCLC were included into the study. The median age was 67 years and 55% were male patients. The tumor specimens for molecular analysis were mostly derived from biopsies (69%), 26% were from conventional cytology specimens and only in 5% from cell blocks. The most prevalent gene mutation was KRAS with 30.6% (range: 27.3-33.9%), followed by EGFR, BRAF and HER2 mutations in 12.2% (range: 10.2-13.1%), 3.9% (range: 2.5-5.6%) and 1.1% (range: 0.9-4.0%), respectively, without significant differences between the eight centers. Concomitant EGFR and KRAS mutations were detected in only 3/2027 NSCLC. In contrast the prevalence of ALK (mean 6.5%, range: 2.8-11.7%) and ROS1 (mean 2.4%, range: 1.5-6.2%) rearrangements varied significantly between centers. Conclusions. The Prevalence of EGFR, KRAS, BRAF and HER2 mutations are well in line with data from other West European populations. Concomitant EGFR, KRAS, BRAF or HER2 mutations are exceptional. ALK FISH results vary significantly between the eight centres. Concomitant ALK FISH positive results in NSCLC harbouring other oncogenic driver mutation have only been observed in two smaller centres, highlighting the difficulty in ALK-FISH interpretation.

Stereotactic body radiation therapy with helical tomotherapy for medical inoperable early-stage primary and second-primary non-small cell lung neoplasm : one-year outcome and toxicity analysis

Le cancer du poumon est la première cause de mortalité associée au cancer dans le monde. Le traitement curatif des tumeurs pulmonaires non-à-petites-cellules (NSCLC) diagnostiquées à un stade précoce se base sur une approche chirurgicale. Cependant, étant donné les comorbidités liées à la consommation de tabac, dont la bronchopneumopathie chronique occupe la première place, l'éligibilité chirurgicale pour ce type de cancer se trouve fréquemment limitée. Dans ce contexte, l'emploi de la radiothérapie stéréotaxique (SBRT) est une alternative valable chez les patients atteints d'un NSCLC primaire de stade précoce, et qui sont considérés inopérables à cause de leurs comorbidités. Depuis peu seulemement, le spectre de la SBRT a été élargi aux patients atteints d'un deuxième NSCLC primaire (SPLC), faisant suite à un premier NSCLC, traité avec un but curatif. Ils concernent donc des patients ayant déjà subits une intervention chirurgicale au préalable et qui présentent une réserve fonctionnelle pulmonaire extrêmement réduite. Le succès croissant de la SBRT résulte soit d'une efficacité thérapeutique comparables à la chirurgie, soit de sa toxicité qui semble limitée. À notre connaissance, seulement une étude a reporté des issues cliniques de patients affectés par des NSCLC primaires traités par SBRT. Cette dernière a utilisé la tomothérapie comme système d'irradiation (T-SBRT), sur un faible échantillon de patients (n = 27). Concernant l'irradiation des patients présentant des SPLC, la littérature disponible est pauvre et aucune publication a décrit l'utilisation de la T-SBRT. Ces éléments innovants ont donc motivé la rédaction d'un travail de thèse concernant les premières données cliniques de l'expérience faite au CHUV. Du point de vue des effets secondaires, si la pneumonie actinique précoce et tardive survenant au niveau du champ d'irradiation est désormais une complication iatrogène bien connue de la SBRT, une seule étude s'est intéressée à ce sujet dans le cadre de la T-SBRT. De plus, une entité bénigne et transitoire de pneumonie ( ?) a été reconnue depuis peu : la pneumonie organisée radio-induite (OP). Celle-ci semble se chevaucher comme un autre effet iatrogène à l'extérieur du champ d'irradiation. Originellement, cette dernière avait été rapportée dans les suites de la radiothérapie pour les cancer du sein. Elle a été décrite comme étant initialement limitée au champ d'irradiation et successivement pouvant s'étendre dynamiquement en dehors de celui-ci. Nous avons donc supposé que des infiltrats de OP peuvent être présents chez des patients asymptomatiques, et que ce dynamisme pourrait être identifié déjà au sein du champ d'irradiation. Notre étude a démontré que le traitement par T-SBRT garde des issues cliniques très encourageantes, aussi bien pour les tumeurs primaires que pour les SPLC. Entre autre, ce traitement semble avoir une toxicité limitée, et l'existence vraisemblable de la OP, déjà au sein du champ d'irradiation, peut aider les radiologues à différencier les infiltrats radio-induits d'une une récidive tumorale.

Implementing Agile Software Development Methods in a Small Organization

Currently there is a vogue for Agile Software Development methods and many software development organizations have already implemented or they are planning to implement agile methods. Objective of this thesis is to define how agile software development methods are implemented in a small organization. Agile methods covered in this thesis are Scrum and XP. From both methods the key practices are analysed and compared to waterfall method. This thesis also defines implementation strategy and actions how agile methods are implemented in a small organization. In practice organization must prepare well and all needed meters are defined before the implementation starts. In this work three different sample projects are introduced where agile methods were implemented. Experiences from these projects were encouraging although sample set of projects were too small to get trustworthy results.

Privatization, cooperation and costs of solid waste services in small towns

This paper analyzes the cost implications of privatization and cooperation in the provision of solid waste services for a sample of small municipalities. In conducting this empirical analysis, a survey is first designed and administered to municipalities in the Spanish region of Aragon, and then an estimation of the determinants of service costs is undertaken, considering the possible endogeneity of delivery choices. Our findings indicate that cooperation is more effective than privatization in saving costs. Both production forms can enable small municipalities to cut costs by exploiting scale economies. However, the fact that inter-municipal cooperation involves lower transaction costs and is less likely to be affected by competition problems would seem to account for the fact that it is a more effective way of reducing costs.

Spleen Volume Variation in Patients with Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Platinum-Based Chemo-Radiotherapy.

There is renewed interest in the immune regulatory role of the spleen in oncology. To date, very few studies have examined macroscopic variations of splenic volume in the setting of cancer, prior to or during therapy, especially in humans. Changes in splenic volume may be associated with changes in splenic function. The purpose of this study was to investigate variations in spleen volume in NSCLC patients during chemo-radiotherapy. Sixty patients with stage I-IIIB NSCLC underwent radiotherapy (60Gy/30 fractions) for six weeks with concomitant carboplatin/paclitaxel (Ca/P; n = 32) or cisplatin/etoposide (Ci/E; n = 28). A baseline PET/CT scan was performed within 2 weeks prior to treatment and during Weeks 2 and 4 of chemo-radiotherapy. Spleen volume was measured by contouring all CT slices. Significant macroscopic changes in splenic volume occurred early after the commencement of treatment. A significant decrease in spleen volume was observed for 66% of Ca/P and 79% of Ci/E patients between baseline and Week 2. Spleen volume was decreased by 14.2% for Ca/P (p<0.001) and 19.3% for Ci/E (p<0.001) patients. By Week 4, spleen volume was still significantly decreased for Ca/P patients compared to baseline, while for Ci/E patients, spleen volume returned to above baseline levels. This is the first report demonstrating macroscopic changes in the spleen in NSCLC patients undergoing radical chemo-radiotherapy that can be visualized by non-invasive imaging.

Information transfer between large and small two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis.

To determine the feasibility of data transfer, an interlaboratory comparison was conducted on colon carcinoma cell line (DLD-1) proteins resolved by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis either on small (6 x 7 cm) or large (16x18 cm) gels. The gels were silver-stained and scanned by laser densitometry, and the image obtained was analyzed using Melanie software. The number of spots detected was 1337+/-161 vs. 2382+/-176 for small vs. large format gels, respectively. After gel calibration using landmarks determined using pl and Mr markers, large- and small-format gels were matched and 712+/-36 proteins were found on both types of gels. Having performed accurate gel matching it was possible to acquire additional information after accessing a 2-D PAGE reference database (http://www.expasy.ch/ cgibin/map2/def?DLD1_HUMAN). Thus, the difference in gel size is not an obstacle for data transfer. This will facilitate exchanges between laboratories or consultation concerning existing databases.

Cyclooxygenase-2 Expression in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Correlates With Hypertrophic Osteoarthropathy.

Hypertrophic osteoarthrpathy (HO) is a rare paraneoplasic syndrome associated with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The pathophysiology of HO is unknown but was recently related to enhanced levels of urine prostaglandin E2 (PGE2). Here, we report the case of a patient that presented HO in association with a resectable left upper lobe NSCLC. Following surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy, HO resolved and did not recur with development of a brain metastasis 1 year later. Interestingly, tumor cyclooxygenase-2, an enzyme responsible the synthesis of PGE2, was expressed in the primary tumor but not in the resected metastasis.

Corporate Social and Regional Responsibility - The View of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

The objective of this research was to understand and describe what corpo-rate social and regional responsibility is in SMEs and define the meaning of these concepts to the community and region. Corporate social respon-sibility (CSR) creates a basis for regional responsibility. Regional respon-sibility is a new concept and this research examines it from SMEs’ view-point. This is a theoretical research and the aim is to create a theoretical framework of SMEs’ corporate social and regional responsibility. This framework supports the future research on the subject. The research results show that CSR of SMEs is practical, informal and dependent on the scarce resources of SMEs. CSR is a complex and deep concept and SMEs have their own way of interpreting it. It can be stated that CSR-practises in SMEs are closely connected to employment, envi-ronment, community and supply chain. The challenge is to find motivation to socially and regionally responsible behaviour in SMEs. Benefiting from responsible behaviour and the attitude of SME’s owner-manager are the key reasons for SMEs to involve in CSR and regional responsibility. The benefits of this involvement are for example improved image, reputation and market position. CSR can also be used in SMEs as risk management tool and in cost reduction. This study indicates also that creation of strate-gic partnerships, local government participation, a proper legal system and financial support are the basic issues which support CSR of SMEs. This research showed that regional responsibility of SMEs includes active participation in regional strategy processes, L&RED initiatives and regional philanthropy. For SMEs regional responsibility means good relationships with the community and other related stakeholders, involvement in L&RED initiatives and acting responsibly towards the operating environment. In SMEs’ case this means that they need to understand the benefits of this kind of involvement in order to take action and participate. As regional responsibility includes the relationships between firm and the community, it can be stated that regional responsibility extends CSR’s view of stakeholders and emphasises both, the regional stakeholders and public-private partnerships. Community engagement and responsible be-haviour towards community can be seen as a part of SMEs’ social and regional responsibility. This study indicates that social and regional re-sponsibility of SMEs have a significant influence on the community and region where they are located. Better local and regional relationships with regional and community actors are the positive impacts of social and re-gional responsibility of SMEs. Socially and regionally responsible behav-iour creates a more positive environment and deepens the involvement of SMEs to community and L&RED initiatives.

Prospective evaluation of circulating VEGF in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with bevacizumab, pemetrexed and cisplatin in the trial SAKK19/09.

Aim: Bevacizumab is a monoclonal antibody directed against the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). The previous phase II trial ABIGAIL (Reck, 2010) suggested circulating VEGF as a prognostic, but not predictive, biomarker for patients (pts) with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with bevacizumab. We prospectively measured VEGF in the multicenter phase II trial SAKK19/09 (NCT01116219). Methods: SAKK19/09 enrolled 77 evaluable patients (pts) with previously untreated, advanced nonsquamous NSCLC and EGFR wild type. Pts received 4 cycles of cisplatin 75mg/m2 (or carboplatin AUC5), pemetrexed 500mg/m2 and bevacizumab 7.5mg/kg, followed by maintenance therapy with pemetrexed and bevacizumab until progression by RECIST1.1. Follow-up CT scans were performed every 6 weeks until week 54 and every 12 weeks thereafter. Baseline EDTA blood samples were sent by same-day courier to the central laboratory for centrifugation, aliquoting, and freezing. Upon completion of enrollment, aliquots were thawed, and VEGF quantification was performed centrally using Luminex® Performance Assay Human Base Kit A (R&D Systems, Abingdon, UK). The mean value was used to stratify pts into two groups (low versus high VEGF). Best response rate assessed by RECIST1.1 (CR + PR versus SD + PD). Results: Clinical results of the SAKK19/09 trial were reported previously (Gautschi, 2013). Baseline plasma VEGF was detectable in 71 of 77 (92%) evaluable patients treated with chemotherapy and bevacizumab. The mean value was 74.9 pg/ml, the median 47.5 pg/ml, and the range 3.55 to 310 pg/ml. Using the mean as a predefined cutoff value, 50 patients had low VEGF levels and 21 patients had high VEGF levels. High VEGF was significantly associated with shorter PFS (4.1 vs 8.3 months, HR = 2.56; 95%CI: 1.43- 4.57; p = 0.0015) and OS (8.7 vs 17.5 months, HR = 2.67; 95% CI: 1.37-5.20; p = 0.0041), but not with best response rate ( p = 0.2256). Conclusions: Consistent with the ABIGAIL trial, circulating VEGF was prognostic, but not predictive for response, in the current trial. Further work is ongoing to identify potentially predictive biomarkers for bevacizumab, using comprehensive proteomic analyses. Disclosure: S.I. Rothschild: I received honoraria for the participation in advisory boards from Eli Lilly and Roche and for presentations at scientific symposiums sponsored by Roche; O. Gautschi: Honoraria for advisory boards of Eli Lilly and Roche; R. Cathomas: Advisory board member: Eli Lilly. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Prevalence and clinical outcomes for patients with MET protein expression in patients with non-small cell lung cancer in Europe: Results from the European Thoracic Oncology Platform Lungscape Project.

Aim The reported prevalence of MET overexpression varies from 25-55% in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and clinical correlations are emerging slowly. In a well-defined NSCLC cohort of the Lungscape program, we explore the epidemiology, the natural history of IHC MET positivity and its association to OS, RFS and TTR. Methods Resected stage I-III NSCLC identified based on the quality of clinical data and FFPE tissue availability were assessed for MET expression using immunohistochemistry (IHC) on TMAs (CONFIRM anti total c-MET assay, clone SP44, Ventana BenchMark platform). All cases were analysed at participating pathology laboratories using the same protocol, after passing an external quality assurance program. MET positive status is defined as ≥ 50% of tumor cells staining with 2+ or 3+ intensity. Results A total of 2709 cases are included in the iBiobank and will be analysed. IHC MET expression is currently available for 1552 patients, with positive MET IHC staining in 380 cases [24.5%; IHC 3+ in 157 cases (41.3%) and 2+ in 223 cases (58.7%)]. The cohort of 1552 patients includes 48.2%, 44.7% and 4.4% cases of adenocarcinoma, squamous and large cell histologies, respectively. IHC MET status was independent of stage, age and smoking history. Significant differences in MET positivity were associated with gender (32% vs. 21% for female vs. male, p < 0.001), with performance status (25% vs. 18% for 0 vs. 1-3, p = 0.006), and histology (34%, 14% and 24% for adenocarcinoma, squamous and large cell carcinoma, p < 0.001). IHC MET positivity was independent of the IHC ALK status (p = 0.08). At last FU, 52% of patients were still alive, with a median FU of 4.8 yrs. No association of IHC MET was found with OS, RFS or TTR. Conclusions The preliminary results for this large multicentre European cohort describe a prevalence of MET overexpression that seems lower than previous observations in NSCLC, such as reported for the OAM4971g trial, suggesting potential biological differences between surgically resected and metastatic disease. Analysis for the full cohort is ongoing and results will be presented. Disclosure L. Bubendorf: Disclosures: Stock ownership: Roche Advisory boards: Roche, Pfizer Research support: Roche; K. Schulze: Full time employee of Roche; A. Das-Gupta: I am a full time employee of Roche. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Final results of the SAKK 16/00 trial: a randomized phase III trial comparing neoadjuvant chemoradiation to chemotherapy alone in stage IIIA/N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Aim: One standard option in the treatment of stage IIIA/N2 NSCLC is neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. We investigated in a randomized trial whether the addition of neoadjuvant radiotherapy would improve the outcome. Here we present the final results of this study. Methods: Patients (pts.) with pathologically proven, resectable stage IIIA/N2 NSCLC, performance status 0-1, and adequate organ function were randomized 1:1 to chemoradiation (CRT) with 3 cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin 100 mg/m2 and docetaxel 85 mg/m2 d1, q3weeks) followed by accelerated concomitant boost radiotherapy (RT) with 44 Gy in 22 fractions in 3 weeks, or neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (CT), with subsequent surgery for all pts. The primary endpoint was event-free survival (EFS). Results: 232 pts. were randomized in 23 centers, the median follow-up was 53 months. Two thirds were men, median age was 60 years (range 37-76). Histology was squamous cell in 33%, adenocarcinoma in 43%. Response rate to CRT was 61% vs. 44% with CT. 85% of all pts. underwent surgery, 30-day postoperative mortality was 1%. The rate of complete resection was 91% (CRT) vs. 81% (CT) and the pathological complete remission (pCR) rate was 16% vs. 12%. The median EFS was 13.1 months (95% CI 9.9 - 23.5) for the CRT group vs. 11.8 months (95% CI 8.4 - 15.2) in the CT arm (p 0.665). The median overall survival (OS) with CRT was 37.1 months (95% CI 22.6 -50), with CT 26.1 months ( 95% CI 26.1 - 52.1, p 0.938). The local failure rate was 23% in both arms. In the CT arm 12 pts. were given postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) for R1 resection, 6 pts. received PORT in violation of the protocol. Pts. with a pCR, mediastinal downstaging to ypN0/1 and complete resection had a better outcome. Toxicity of chemotherapy was substantial, especially febrile neutropenia was common, whereas RT was well tolerated. Conclusions: This is the first completed phase III trial to evaluate the role of induction chemoradiotherapy and surgery, in comparison to neoadjuvant CT alone followed by surgery. RT was active, it increased response, complete resection and pCR rates. However, this failed to translate into an improvement of local control, EFS or OS. Notably, surgery after induction treatment was safe, including pneumonectomy. The overall survival rates of our neoadjuvant regimen are very encouraging, especially for a multicenter setting. Disclosure: M. Pless: Advisory Board for Sanofi; R. Cathomas: Advisory Board Sanofi D.C. Betticher: Advisory Board Sanofi. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.