866 resultados para Seasonal adjustment


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Brazilian cerrado is characterized by an evident seasonality with distinct dry and wet seasons. Pyrostegia venusta is a common vine found in different physiognomies of the Cerrado. The species may present characteristics that allow its adjustment to the seasonal cycles. The phenology of vegetative and reproductive events was studied for this species in 2004 and 2005. The objective was to verify which climatic factors determine the phenological patterns observed in the species. Flowering was inversely related to mean temperatures and to the length of the day, while fruiting was inversely related to the photoperiod and directly related to the mean wind velocity. Seed dispersal was directly related to wind speed. As a consequence, flowering occurred at the end of the rainy season, close to the winter, and was prolonged until the end of the dry season. Fruiting and fruit maturation occurred during the dry period, with the seeds being dispersed at the end of this period. The seed dispersal at the end of the dry season, common to other anemochoric species of cerrado, allows a rapid germination at the beginning of the wet season, favoring the species propagation in this environment.

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We investigated the influence of environmental factors in spatial and temporal distribution of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri in Santos Bay and São Vicente Estuary, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Monthly samples were obtained, from May 2008 through April 2010, from four locations in the estuary and four in the bay. No individual was collected in the estuary and this was attributed to the low salinity means recorded in this environment. We collected 109,153 individuals in the bay and there was no difference in abundance between the two years comprised by the study period. The similarity in spatial distribution can be related to sediment grain size that in all sampling locations showed great amount of very fine sand. The largest amount of reproductive females was obtained in early 2010, when temperature was high, and this could have increased the juvenile recruitment in April 2010. According to our results, the distribution of X. kroyeri in the study area is influenced by temperature, which is related to reproduction, and salinity, limiting the entrance of individuals in the estuarine region.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)