Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

On the equivalence of weighted Country-Product-Dummy (CPD) Method and the Rao-System for multilateral price comparisons

The country-product-dummy (CPD) method, originally proposed in Summers (1973), has recently been revisited in its weighted formulation to handle a variety of data related situations (Rao and Timmer, 2000, 2003; Heravi et al., 2001; Rao, 2001; Aten and Menezes, 2002; Heston and Aten, 2002; Deaton et al., 2004). The CPD method is also increasingly being used in the context of hedonic modelling instead of its original purpose of filling holes in Summers (1973). However, the CPD method is seen, among practitioners, as a black box due to its regression formulation. The main objective of the paper is to establish equivalence of purchasing power parities and international prices derived from the application of the weighted-CPD method with those arising out of the Rao-system for multilateral comparisons. A major implication of this result is that the weighted-CPD method would then be a natural method of aggregation at all levels of aggregation within the context of international comparisons.

Socio-economic inequalities in women's fruit and vegetable intakes: a multilevel study of individual, social and environmental mediators

Objective: This study employed a multilevel design to test the contribution of individual, social and environmental factors to mediating socio-economic status (SES) inequalities in fruit and vegetable consumption among women. Design: A cross-sectional survey was linked with objective environmental data. Setting: A community sample involving 45 neighbourhoods. Subjects: In total, 1347 women from 45 neighbourhoods provided survey data on their SES (highest education level), nutrition knowledge, health considerations related to food purchasing, and social support for healthy eating. These data were linked with objective environmental data on the density of supermarkets and fruit and vegetable outlets in local neighbourhoods. Results: Multilevel modelling showed that individual and social factors partly mediated, but did not completely explain, SES variations in fruit and vegetable consumption. Store density did not mediate the relationship of SES with fruit or vegetable consumption. Conclusions: Nutrition promotion interventions should focus on enhancing nutrition knowledge and health considerations underlying food purchasing in order to promote healthy eating, particularly among those who are socio-economically disadvantaged. Further investigation is required to identify additional potential mediators of SES-diet relationships, particularly at the environmental level. © The Authors 2006.

Gender and consumer search of the internet

The role of gender differences in the consumption of goods and services is well established in many areas of consumer behaviour and computer use and yet there has been only limited research into such gender-based differences in the information search behaviour of Internet users. This paper reports the gender-based results of an exploratory study of consumer external information search of the web. The study investigated consumer characteristics, web search behaviour, and the post web search outcomes of purchase decision status and consumer judgements of search usefulness and satisfaction. Gender-based differences are reported in all three areas. Consideration of the results suggests they are issues which could inhibit the adoption of online purchasing by female web users. The implications of these results are discussed and a future research agenda proposed.

Constructing internationally comparable real income aggregates by combining sparse benchmark data with annual national accounts data: A state-space approach

The importance of availability of comparable real income aggregates and their components to applied economic research is highlighted by the popularity of the Penn World Tables. Any methodology designed to achieve such a task requires the combination of data from several sources. The first is purchasing power parities (PPP) data available from the International Comparisons Project roughly every five years since the 1970s. The second is national level data on a range of variables that explain the behaviour of the ratio of PPP to market exchange rates. The final source of data is the national accounts publications of different countries which include estimates of gross domestic product and various price deflators. In this paper we present a method to construct a consistent panel of comparable real incomes by specifying the problem in state-space form. We present our completed work as well as briefly indicate our work in progress.

TESTANDO A TEORIA DA PARIDADE DE PODER DE COMPRA (PPC) NO PERÍODO DE 1995 A 2010

O objetivo deste trabalho é testar a teoria da Paridade de Poder de Compra em sua versão absoluta e relativa para o Brasil no período de 1995 a 2010, utilizando procedimentos da econometria visando estabelecer através de testes de hipóteses a validação ou rejeição da teoria da Paridade do Poder de Compra. Para a verificação serão utilizados os testes de Dickey-Fuller (DF), Dickey-Fuller Ampliado (ADF) e testes de Cointegração de Engle e Granger e Joahansen. Adotamos para o estudo os países EUA e Brasil, tendo em vista o fluxo de comércio entre estes países e sua importância na economia mundial. Através dos índices de preço IPA e PPI analisarse- á a validação da teoria da Paridade de Poder de Compra em sua versão relativa e absoluta, chegando-se a conclusão de aceitação de sua versão relativa e rejeição de sua versão absoluta.

O IMPACTO DA INFLUÊNCIA SOCIAL SOBRE A INTENÇÃO DE USO DE SITES DE COMPRAS COLETIVAS: UM ESTUDO BASEADO NO MODELO UTAUT

A aceitação e o uso de Tecnologia da Informação (TI) pelo indivíduo têm sido estudadas por diferentes modelos conceituais que, em geral, derivaram de teorias da Psicologia como a TRA Theory of Reasoned Action e a TPB Theory of Planned Behavior, derivada da primeira. Um importante modelo de análise dai derivado, resultado da minuciosa análise de outros 8 modelos anteriores, o UTAUT - Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology de VENKATESH et. al. (2003) tem sido largamente analisado e validado em vários cenários de tecnologia e ambientes. Este trabalho visa compreender de uma maneira mais ampla dos fatores antecedentes da intenção de uso e comportamento de uso a partir do modelo UTAUT, bem como os fatores que melhores explicam a intenção e o comportamento de uso, assim como a análise de seus moderadores. Em seu desenvolvimento, Venkatesh et al. empreenderam comparações em três etapas de implantação e em dois cenários: na adoção mandatória, aquela em que se deu em ambiente empresarial onde o sistema é requerido para execução de processos e tomada de decisões, e na adoção voluntária, cenário em que a adoção se dá pelo indivíduo. No segundo caso, os autores concluíram que o fator influência social tem baixa magnitude e significância, não se revelando um fator importante na adoção da tecnologia. Este trabalho visa analisar também se o mesmo fenômeno ocorre para adoção que se dá de forma voluntária, mas passível de ser altamente influenciada pelos laços sociais, como o que ocorre entre usuários das redes sociais como Orkut, Facebook, Twitter e Linkedin, especialmente em tecnologias que habilitam ganhos associados ao exercício desses laços, como no caso do uso de sites de compras coletivas tais como Peixe Urbano, Groupon e Clickon. Com base no modelo UTAUT, foi aplicada uma pesquisa e posteriormente foram analisados os resultados de 292 respondentes validados que foram acessados por e-mails e redes sociais. A técnica de análise empregada consistiu do uso de modelagem por equações estruturais, com base no algoritmo PLS Partial Least Square, com bootstrap de 1000 reamostragens. Os resultados demonstraram alta magnitude e significância preditiva sobre a Intenção de uso da tecnologia pelos fatores de Expectativa de Desempenho (0,288@0,1%), Influência Social (0,176@0,1%). Os primeiro, compatível com estudos anteriores. Já a magnitude e significância do último fator resultou amplamente superior ao estudo original de Venkatesh et al. (2003) variando entre 0,02 a 0,04, não significante, dependendo dos dados estarem agrupados ou não (p.465). A principal conclusão deste estudo é que, ao considerarmos o fenômeno das compras coletivas, em um ambiente de adoção voluntária, portanto, o fator social é altamente influente na intenção de uso da tecnologia, o que contrasta fortemente com o estudo original do UTAUT (já que no estudo de Venkatesh et al. (2003) este fator não foi significante) e apresenta várias possibilidades de pesquisas futuras e possíveis implicações gerenciais.

FATORES DETERMINANTES DA MORTALIDADE DE MICRO E PEQUENAS FARMÁCIAS DA BAIXADA SANTISTA: sob o olhar do farmacista

Esse trabalho estudou o segmento farmacêutico de micro e pequenas farmácias da região da Baixada Santista, em relação aos fatores determinantes da mortalidade no segmento, sob o olhar dos proprietários e gestores das farmácias, visto que nos últimos anos o segmento vêm sofrendo um encolhimento, além da migração das farmácias de micro e pequeno porte para as zonas mais periféricas das cidades da região da Baixada Santista. A metodologia utilizada para a pesquisa foi qualitativa, através de uma pesquisa exploratória e bibliográfica, tendo como instrumento de coleta de dados entrevistas, com roteiro semi-estruturado, aplicado a gestores e proprietários de sete farmácias na região da Baixada Santista. Cinco delas em atividade e duas fechadas, nos municípios de Santos, São Vicente, Guarujá e Praia grande. A análise dos dados foi feita com base em categorias analíticas criadas a partir da literatura que embasa esse estudo, chegando a dois blocos de análise: um relacionado diretamente aos fatores mercadológicos das farmácias, e outro relacionado a fatores administrativos e de custo. A análise dos dados comprovou existir fatores determinantes para a mortalidade das micro e pequenas farmácias da região, separados em dois blocos. No bloco mercadológico, estão relacionados os fatores determinantes que afetam diretamente a parte comercial das micro e pequenas farmácias, como o crescimento das grandes redes de farmácias, programa Farmácia Popular e falta de poder de compra por parte das farmácias. No bloco administrativo e de custos, estão relacionados a deficiência na gestão empresarial, custos operacionais, tributação e problemas pessoais. Através dessa pesquisa se conclui que esses fatores determinantes têm enfraquecido o segmento de micro e pequenas farmácias, ocasionando a mortalidade de diversas farmácias, não poupando nem mesmo as tradicionais da região da Baixada Santista.

A VEZ DA TERCEIRA IDADE: O DISCURSO DA PUBLICIDADE NA CONSTRUÇÃO DA IMAGEM DO IDOSO NAS REVISTAS

A participação do idoso na economia brasileira vem se destacando, pois grande parcela da população está com idade igual ou superior a 60 anos, considerada terceira idade, expressão que recentemente popularizou-se no Brasil, tendo sua origem na França nos anos 1970. O direito à aposentadoria, à proteção oferecida pelo Estatuto do Idoso somando-se ao reajuste do salário mínimo acima da inflação oficial tem sido um fator muito importante para aumentar a renda da população idosa, favorecendo o consumo. Portanto, seu poder de compra tem incentivado a comunicação de diversos produtos e serviços desenvolvidos especialmente para atingir esse público. Diante deste cenário, este estudo buscou identificar, por meio das estratégias metodológicas constituídas pela análise de conteúdo e de discurso, qual é a imagem do idoso construída pela publicidade. Para isso, foram analisados os anúncios publicados nas revistas Época, Veja e Veja São Paulo, tendo essa publicidade caráter mercadológico ou institucional. Como resultado, verificou-se que a imagem do idoso produzida nos anúncios como sinônimo de bem-estar, alegria e felicidade está sendo apresentada para divulgar produtos e serviços tanto para o público idoso quanto para o público em geral e, nesse segundo caso a imagem do idoso representa credibilidade, confiança e sucesso. Essa mesma imagem ora quebra estereótipos anteriormente construídos na sociedade, ora fortalece as concepções estereotipadas existentes e ora cria outros estereótipos, estabelecendo uma nova ditadura do jovem idoso .

Expert systems for vendor selection

The survival of organisations, especially SMEs, depends, to the greatest extent, on those who supply them with the required material input. This is because if the supplier fails to deliver the right materials at the right time and place, and at the right price, then the recipient organisation is bound to fail in its obligations to satisfy the needs of its customers, and to stay in business. Hence, the task of choosing a supplier(s) from a list of vendors, that an organisation will trust with its very existence, is not an easy one. This project investigated how purchasing personnel in organisations solve the problem of vendor selection. The investigation went further to ascertain whether an Expert Systems model could be developed and used as a plausible solution to the problem. An extensive literature review indicated that very scanty research has been conducted in the area of Expert Systems for Vendor Selection, whereas many research theories in expert systems and in purchasing and supply management chain, respectively, had been reported. A survey questionnaire was designed and circulated to people in the industries who actually perform the vendor selection tasks. Analysis of the collected data confirmed the various factors which are considered during the selection process, and established the order in which those factors are ranked. Five of the factors, namely, Production Methods Used, Vendors Financial Background, Manufacturing Capacity, Size of Vendor Organisations, and Suppliers Position in the Industry; appeared to have similar patterns in the way organisations ranked them. These patterns suggested that the bigger the organisation, the more importantly they regarded the above factors. Further investigations revealed that respondents agreed that the most important factors were: Product Quality, Product Price and Delivery Date. The most apparent pattern was observed for the Vendors Financial Background. This generated curiosity which led to the design and development of a prototype expert system for assessing the financial profile of a potential supplier(s). This prototype was called ESfNS. It determines whether a prospective supplier(s) has good financial background or not. ESNS was tested by the potential users who then confirmed that expert systems have great prospects and commercial viability in the domain for solving vendor selection problems.

Post-Bretton Woods evidence on PPP under different exchange rate regimes

This article investigates the behaviour of exchange rates across different regimes for a post-Bretton Woods period. The exchange rate regime classification is based on the classification of Frankel et al. (2004) who condensed the 10 categories of exchange rate regimes reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into three categories. Panel unitroot tests and panel cointegration are used to examine the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. The latter test is used to check for both the weak and strong forms of PPP. The panel unit-root tests show no evidence of PPP and suggest there is no difference in the behaviour of exchange rates across different regimes. However, failure to detect PPP across any of the regimes could be due to structural breaks. This assumption is reinforced by the results of cointegration tests, which suggest that there exists at least a weak form of PPP for the different regimes. The evidence for strong PPP decreases as the exchange rate regime moves away from a flexible exchange rate regime.

Adoption of electronic commerce tools in business procurement:enhanced buying center structure and processes

Modern procurement is being shifted from paper-based, people-intensive buying systems toward electronic-based purchase procedures that rely on Internet communications and Web-enhanced buying tools. Develops a typology of e-commerce tools that have come to characterize cutting-edge industrial procurement. E-commerce aspects of purchasing are organized into communication and transaction tools that encompass both internal and external buying activities. Further, a model of the impact of e-commerce on the structure and processes of an organization's buying center is developed. The impact of the changing buying center on procurement outcomes in terms of efficiency and effectiveness is also analyzed. Finally, implications for business-to-business marketers and researchers are discussed.

Design and development of agent-based procurement system to enhance business intelligence

The purpose of this research is to propose a procurement system across other disciplines and retrieved information with relevant parties so as to have a better co-ordination between supply and demand sides. This paper demonstrates how to analyze the data with an agent-based procurement system (APS) to re-engineer and improve the existing procurement process. The intelligence agents take the responsibility of searching the potential suppliers, negotiation with the short-listed suppliers and evaluating the performance of suppliers based on the selection criteria with mathematical model. Manufacturing firms and trading companies spend more than half of their sales dollar in the purchase of raw material and components. Efficient data collection with high accuracy is one of the key success factors to generate quality procurement which is to purchasing right material at right quality from right suppliers. In general, the enterprises spend a significant amount of resources on data collection and storage, but too little on facilitating data analysis and sharing. To validate the feasibility of the approach, a case study on a manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) has been conducted. APS supports the data and information analyzing technique to facilitate the decision making such that the agent can enhance the negotiation and suppler evaluation efficiency by saving time and cost.