Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Approximate Relational Reasoning for Probabilistic Programs

La seguridad verificada es una metodología para demostrar propiedades de seguridad de los sistemas informáticos que se destaca por las altas garantías de corrección que provee. Los sistemas informáticos se modelan como programas probabilísticos y para probar que verifican una determinada propiedad de seguridad se utilizan técnicas rigurosas basadas en modelos matemáticos de los programas. En particular, la seguridad verificada promueve el uso de demostradores de teoremas interactivos o automáticos para construir demostraciones completamente formales cuya corrección es certificada mecánicamente (por ordenador). La seguridad verificada demostró ser una técnica muy efectiva para razonar sobre diversas nociones de seguridad en el área de criptografía. Sin embargo, no ha podido cubrir un importante conjunto de nociones de seguridad “aproximada”. La característica distintiva de estas nociones de seguridad es que se expresan como una condición de “similitud” entre las distribuciones de salida de dos programas probabilísticos y esta similitud se cuantifica usando alguna noción de distancia entre distribuciones de probabilidad. Este conjunto incluye destacadas nociones de seguridad de diversas áreas como la minería de datos privados, el análisis de flujo de información y la criptografía. Ejemplos representativos de estas nociones de seguridad son la indiferenciabilidad, que permite reemplazar un componente idealizado de un sistema por una implementación concreta (sin alterar significativamente sus propiedades de seguridad), o la privacidad diferencial, una noción de privacidad que ha recibido mucha atención en los últimos años y tiene como objetivo evitar la publicación datos confidenciales en la minería de datos. La falta de técnicas rigurosas que permitan verificar formalmente este tipo de propiedades constituye un notable problema abierto que tiene que ser abordado. En esta tesis introducimos varias lógicas de programa quantitativas para razonar sobre esta clase de propiedades de seguridad. Nuestra principal contribución teórica es una versión quantitativa de una lógica de Hoare relacional para programas probabilísticos. Las pruebas de correción de estas lógicas son completamente formalizadas en el asistente de pruebas Coq. Desarrollamos, además, una herramienta para razonar sobre propiedades de programas a través de estas lógicas extendiendo CertiCrypt, un framework para verificar pruebas de criptografía en Coq. Confirmamos la efectividad y aplicabilidad de nuestra metodología construyendo pruebas certificadas por ordendor de varios sistemas cuyo análisis estaba fuera del alcance de la seguridad verificada. Esto incluye, entre otros, una meta-construcción para diseñar funciones de hash “seguras” sobre curvas elípticas y algoritmos diferencialmente privados para varios problemas de optimización combinatoria de la literatura reciente. ABSTRACT The verified security methodology is an emerging approach to build high assurance proofs about security properties of computer systems. Computer systems are modeled as probabilistic programs and one relies on rigorous program semantics techniques to prove that they comply with a given security goal. In particular, it advocates the use of interactive theorem provers or automated provers to build fully formal machine-checked versions of these security proofs. The verified security methodology has proved successful in modeling and reasoning about several standard security notions in the area of cryptography. However, it has fallen short of covering an important class of approximate, quantitative security notions. The distinguishing characteristic of this class of security notions is that they are stated as a “similarity” condition between the output distributions of two probabilistic programs, and this similarity is quantified using some notion of distance between probability distributions. This class comprises prominent security notions from multiple areas such as private data analysis, information flow analysis and cryptography. These include, for instance, indifferentiability, which enables securely replacing an idealized component of system with a concrete implementation, and differential privacy, a notion of privacy-preserving data mining that has received a great deal of attention in the last few years. The lack of rigorous techniques for verifying these properties is thus an important problem that needs to be addressed. In this dissertation we introduce several quantitative program logics to reason about this class of security notions. Our main theoretical contribution is, in particular, a quantitative variant of a full-fledged relational Hoare logic for probabilistic programs. The soundness of these logics is fully formalized in the Coq proof-assistant and tool support is also available through an extension of CertiCrypt, a framework to verify cryptographic proofs in Coq. We validate the applicability of our approach by building fully machine-checked proofs for several systems that were out of the reach of the verified security methodology. These comprise, among others, a construction to build “safe” hash functions into elliptic curves and differentially private algorithms for several combinatorial optimization problems from the recent literature.

Analysis of the operator action and the single failure criteria in a SGTR sequence using best estimate assumptions with TRACE 5.0

Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) sequences in Pressurized Water Reactors are known to be one of the most demanding transients for the operating crew. SGTR are a special kind of transient as they could lead to radiological releases without core damage or containment failure, as they can constitute a direct path from the reactor coolant system to the environment. The first methodology used to perform the Deterministic Safety Analysis (DSA) of a SGTR did not credit the operator action for the first 30 min of the transient, assuming that the operating crew was able to stop the primary to secondary leakage within that period of time. However, the different real SGTR accident cases happened in the USA and over the world demonstrated that the operators usually take more than 30 min to stop the leakage in actual sequences. Some methodologies were raised to overcome that fact, considering operator actions from the beginning of the transient, as it is done in Probabilistic Safety Analysis. This paper presents the results of comparing different assumptions regarding the single failure criteria and the operator action taken from the most common methodologies included in the different Deterministic Safety Analysis. One single failure criteria that has not been analysed previously in the literature is proposed and analysed in this paper too. The comparison is done with a PWR Westinghouse three loop model in TRACE code (Almaraz NPP) with best estimate assumptions but including deterministic hypothesis such as single failure criteria or loss of offsite power. The behaviour of the reactor is quite diverse depending on the different assumptions made regarding the operator actions. On the other hand, although there are high conservatisms included in the hypothesis, as the single failure criteria, all the results are quite far from the regulatory limits. In addition, some improvements to the Emergency Operating Procedures to minimize the offsite release from the damaged SG in case of a SGTR are outlined taking into account the offsite dose sensitivity results.

An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

Semantic neology in the domain of videogames in Spanish

The aim of this paper is to discuss the meaning of five neologisms in the domain of videogames in Spanish: título, aventura, personaje, plataforma, and rol. Our study focuses on a special type of neologism since the Spanish terms we deal with here are not strictly new words; they are what have been called sense neologisms or neosemanticisms, that is, old words taking a new sense in a different domain. These words were identified as new concepts after a process of analysis based on contextual evidence. This study of neology is based on the analysis of a corpus of press articles evaluating videogames published by the Spanish newspaper El País from 1998 to 2008. The analysis of the instances of use of domain specific terms in the corpus revealed that they acquired new senses different to those they have in other domains where they are also used. The paper explains the process of discovering the specialized meaning these words have developed in the domain of videogames and how the analysis of collocational behavior helps in the process of discovering the new sense and in the design of the definition provided.

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Steady state analysis of a storage integrated solar thermophotovoltaic (SISTPV) system

This paper presents the theoretical analysis of a storage integrated solar thermophotovoltaic (SISTPV) system operating in steady state. These systems combine thermophotovoltaic (TPV) technology and high temperature thermal storage phase-change materials (PCM) in the same unit, providing a great potential in terms of efficiency, cost reduction and storage energy density. The main attraction in the proposed system is its simplicity and modularity compared to conventional Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. This is mainly due to the absence of moving parts. In this paper we analyze the use of Silicon as the phase change material (PCM). Silicon is an excellent candidate because of its high melting point (1680 K) and its very high latent heat of fusion of 1800 kJ/kg, which is about ten times greater than the conventional PCMs like molten salts. For a simple system configuration, we have demonstrated that overall conversion efficiencies up to ?35% are approachable. Although higher efficiencies are expected by incorporating more advanced devices like multijunction TPV cells, narrow band selective emitters or adopting near-field TPV configurations as well as by enhancing the convective/conductive heat transfer within the PCM. In this paper, we also discuss about the optimum system configurations and provide the general guidelines for designing these systems. Preliminary estimates of night time operations indicate it is possible to achieve over 10 h of operation with a relatively small quantity of Silicon.

Bayesian scene analysis for multi-camera 3D tracking and camera positioning

Los sistemas de seguimiento mono-cámara han demostrado su notable capacidad para el análisis de trajectorias de objectos móviles y para monitorización de escenas de interés; sin embargo, tanto su robustez como sus posibilidades en cuanto a comprensión semántica de la escena están fuertemente limitadas por su naturaleza local y monocular, lo que los hace insuficientes para aplicaciones realistas de videovigilancia. El objetivo de esta tesis es la extensión de las posibilidades de los sistemas de seguimiento de objetos móviles para lograr un mayor grado de robustez y comprensión de la escena. La extensión propuesta se divide en dos direcciones separadas. La primera puede considerarse local, ya que está orientada a la mejora y enriquecimiento de las posiciones estimadas para los objetos móviles observados directamente por las cámaras del sistema; dicha extensión se logra mediante el desarrollo de un sistema multi-cámara de seguimiento 3D, capaz de proporcionar consistentemente las posiciones 3D de múltiples objetos a partir de las observaciones capturadas por un conjunto de sensores calibrados y con campos de visión solapados. La segunda extensión puede considerarse global, dado que su objetivo consiste en proporcionar un contexto global para relacionar las observaciones locales realizadas por una cámara con una escena de mucho mayor tamaño; para ello se propone un sistema automático de localización de cámaras basado en las trayectorias observadas de varios objetos móviles y en un mapa esquemático de la escena global monitorizada. Ambas líneas de investigación se tratan utilizando, como marco común, técnicas de estimación bayesiana: esta elección está justificada por la versatilidad y flexibilidad proporcionada por dicho marco estadístico, que permite la combinación natural de múltiples fuentes de información sobre los parámetros a estimar, así como un tratamiento riguroso de la incertidumbre asociada a las mismas mediante la inclusión de modelos de observación específicamente diseñados. Además, el marco seleccionado abre grandes posibilidades operacionales, puesto que permite la creación de diferentes métodos numéricos adaptados a las necesidades y características específicas de distintos problemas tratados. El sistema de seguimiento 3D con múltiples cámaras propuesto está específicamente diseñado para permitir descripciones esquemáticas de las medidas realizadas individualmente por cada una de las cámaras del sistema: esta elección de diseño, por tanto, no asume ningún algoritmo específico de detección o seguimiento 2D en ninguno de los sensores de la red, y hace que el sistema propuesto sea aplicable a redes reales de vigilancia con capacidades limitadas tanto en términos de procesamiento como de transmision. La combinación robusta de las observaciones capturadas individualmente por las cámaras, ruidosas, incompletas y probablemente contaminadas por falsas detecciones, se basa en un metodo de asociación bayesiana basado en geometría y color: los resultados de dicha asociación permiten el seguimiento 3D de los objetos de la escena mediante el uso de un filtro de partículas. El sistema de fusión de observaciones propuesto tiene, como principales características, una gran precisión en términos de localización 3D de objetos, y una destacable capacidad de recuperación tras eventuales errores debidos a un número insuficiente de datos de entrada. El sistema automático de localización de cámaras se basa en la observación de múltiples objetos móviles y un mapa esquemático de las áreas transitables del entorno monitorizado para inferir la posición absoluta de dicho sensor. Para este propósito, se propone un novedoso marco bayesiano que combina modelos dinámicos inducidos por el mapa en los objetos móviles presentes en la escena con las trayectorias observadas por la cámara, lo que representa un enfoque nunca utilizado en la literatura existente. El sistema de localización se divide en dos sub-tareas diferenciadas, debido a que cada una de estas tareas requiere del diseño de algoritmos específicos de muestreo para explotar en profundidad las características del marco desarrollado: por un lado, análisis de la ambigüedad del caso específicamente tratado y estimación aproximada de la localización de la cámara, y por otro, refinado de la localización de la cámara. El sistema completo, diseñado y probado para el caso específico de localización de cámaras en entornos de tráfico urbano, podría tener aplicación también en otros entornos y sensores de diferentes modalidades tras ciertas adaptaciones. ABSTRACT Mono-camera tracking systems have proved their capabilities for moving object trajectory analysis and scene monitoring, but their robustness and semantic possibilities are strongly limited by their local and monocular nature and are often insufficient for realistic surveillance applications. This thesis is aimed at extending the possibilities of moving object tracking systems to a higher level of scene understanding. The proposed extension comprises two separate directions. The first one is local, since is aimed at enriching the inferred positions of the moving objects within the area of the monitored scene directly covered by the cameras of the system; this task is achieved through the development of a multi-camera system for robust 3D tracking, able to provide 3D tracking information of multiple simultaneous moving objects from the observations reported by a set of calibrated cameras with semi-overlapping fields of view. The second extension is global, as is aimed at providing local observations performed within the field of view of one camera with a global context relating them to a much larger scene; to this end, an automatic camera positioning system relying only on observed object trajectories and a scene map is designed. The two lines of research in this thesis are addressed using Bayesian estimation as a general unifying framework. Its suitability for these two applications is justified by the flexibility and versatility of that stochastic framework, which allows the combination of multiple sources of information about the parameters to estimate in a natural and elegant way, addressing at the same time the uncertainty associated to those sources through the inclusion of models designed to this end. In addition, it opens multiple possibilities for the creation of different numerical methods for achieving satisfactory and efficient practical solutions to each addressed application. The proposed multi-camera 3D tracking method is specifically designed to work on schematic descriptions of the observations performed by each camera of the system: this choice allows the use of unspecific off-the-shelf 2D detection and/or tracking subsystems running independently at each sensor, and makes the proposal suitable for real surveillance networks with moderate computational and transmission capabilities. The robust combination of such noisy, incomplete and possibly unreliable schematic descriptors relies on a Bayesian association method, based on geometry and color, whose results allow the tracking of the targets in the scene with a particle filter. The main features exhibited by the proposal are, first, a remarkable accuracy in terms of target 3D positioning, and second, a great recovery ability after tracking losses due to insufficient input data. The proposed system for visual-based camera self-positioning uses the observations of moving objects and a schematic map of the passable areas of the environment to infer the absolute sensor position. To this end, a new Bayesian framework combining trajectory observations and map-induced dynamic models for moving objects is designed, which represents an approach to camera positioning never addressed before in the literature. This task is divided into two different sub-tasks, setting ambiguity analysis and approximate position estimation, on the one hand, and position refining, on the other, since they require the design of specific sampling algorithms to correctly exploit the discriminative features of the developed framework. This system, designed for camera positioning and demonstrated in urban traffic environments, can also be applied to different environments and sensors of other modalities after certain required adaptations.

Linear latent force models using Gaussian Processes

Purely data-driven approaches for machine learning present difficulties when data are scarce relative to the complexity of the model or when the model is forced to extrapolate. On the other hand, purely mechanistic approaches need to identify and specify all the interactions in the problem at hand (which may not be feasible) and still leave the issue of how to parameterize the system. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach using Gaussian processes and differential equations to combine data-driven modeling with a physical model of the system. We show how different, physically inspired, kernel functions can be developed through sensible, simple, mechanistic assumptions about the underlying system. The versatility of our approach is illustrated with three case studies from motion capture, computational biology, and geostatistics.

Proposal for a semantic hierarchy of terminological metaphors in science and technology

Cognitive linguistics is considered as one of the most appropriate approaches to the study of scientific and technical language formation and development, where metaphor is accepted to play an essential role. This paper, based on the Cognitive Theory of Metaphor, takes as the starting point the terminological metaphors established in the research project METACITEC(Note 1), which was developed with the purpose of unfolding constitutive metaphors and their function in the language of science and technology. After the analysis of metaphorical terms and using a mixed corpus from the fields of Agriculture, Geology, Mining, Metallurgy, and other related technical fields, this study presents a proposal for a hierarchy of the selected metaphors underlying the scientific conceptual system, based on the semantic distance found in the projection from the source domain to the target domain. We argue that this semantic distance can be considered as an important parameter to take into account in order to establish the metaphoricity of science and technology metaphorical terms. The findings contribute to expand on the CTM stance that metaphor is a matter of cognition by reviewing the abstract-concrete conceptual relationship between the target and source domains, and to determine the role of human creativity and imagination in the language of science and technology configuration

Semantic Neology in the Domain of Videogames in Spanish.

The aim of this paper is to discuss the meaning of five neologisms in the domain of videogames in Spanish: título, aventura, personaje, plataforma, and rol. Our study focuses on a special type of neologism since the Spanish terms we deal with here are not strictly new words; they are what have been called sense neologisms or neosemanticisms, that is, old words taking a new sense in a different domain. These words were identified as new concepts after a process of analysis based on contextual evidence. This study of neology is based on the analysis of a corpus of press articles evaluating videogames published by the Spanish newspaper El País from 1998 to 2008. The analysis of the instances of use of domain specific terms in the corpus revealed that they acquired new senses different to those they have in other domains where they are also used. The paper explains the process of discovering the specialized meaning these words have developed in the domain of videogames and how the analysis of collocational behavior helps in the process of discovering the new sense and in the design of the definition provided. RESUMEN: En este trabajo se presentan cinco neologismos del ámbito del videojuego en español: “título”, “aventura”, “personaje”, “plataforma” y “rol”. Se trata de un tipo especial de neologismo, conocido también como “neologismo semántico” o “neosemanticismo”, ya que son palabras ya existentes en la lengua que adquieren un nuevo significado. Los nuevos significados que adquieren estos términos en el ámbito del videojuego se establecieron tras el análisis del contexto de uso en un corpus periodístico de críticas de videojuegos. Este corpus recoge las críticas de videojuegos publicadas por el periódico El País entre 1998 y 2008. El análisis de los casos de uso de los términos en el corpus de videojuegos reveló que adquirían un nuevo significado diferente al de su uso en otros ámbitos o en el lenguaje general. El artículo describe cada uno de los neologismos y el proceso de análisis contextual que conduce a descubrir el nuevo significado y elaborar su definición.

DAEDALUS at SemEval-2014 Task 9: Comparing approaches for sentiment analysis in twitter

This paper describes our participation at SemEval- 2014 sentiment analysis task, in both contextual and message polarity classification. Our idea was to com- pare two different techniques for sentiment analysis. First, a machine learning classifier specifically built for the task using the provided training corpus. On the other hand, a lexicon-based approach using natural language processing techniques, developed for a ge- neric sentiment analysis task with no adaptation to the provided training corpus. Results, though far from the best runs, prove that the generic model is more robust as it achieves a more balanced evaluation for message polarity along the different test sets.

Analysis of the damage domains of sbo sequences with rcp passive thermal shutdown

The integrated Safety Assessment (ISA) methodology, developed by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN), has been applied to a thermal-hydraulic analysis of PWR Station Blackout (SBO) sequences in the context of the IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) network objectives. The ISA methodology allows obtaining the damage domain (the region of the uncertain parameters space where the damage limit is exceeded) for each sequence of interest as a function of the operator actuations times. Given a particular safety limit or damage limit, several data of every sequence are necessary in order to obtain the exceedance frequency of that limit. In this application these data are obtained from the results of the simulations performed with MAAP code transients inside each damage domain and the time-density probability distributions of the manual actions. Damage limits that have been taken into account within this analysis are: local cladding damage (PCT>1477 K); local fuel melting (T>2499 K); fuel relocation in lower plenum and vessel failure. Therefore, to every one of these damage variables corresponds a different damage domain. The operation of the new passive thermal shutdown seals developed by several companies since Fukushima accident is considered in the paper. The results show the capability and necessity of the ISA methodology, or similar, in order to obtain accurate results that take into account time uncertainties.

Bayesian scene analysis for multi-camera 3D tracking and camera positioning

Los sistemas de seguimiento mono-cámara han demostrado su notable capacidad para el análisis de trajectorias de objectos móviles y para monitorización de escenas de interés; sin embargo, tanto su robustez como sus posibilidades en cuanto a comprensión semántica de la escena están fuertemente limitadas por su naturaleza local y monocular, lo que los hace insuficientes para aplicaciones realistas de videovigilancia. El objetivo de esta tesis es la extensión de las posibilidades de los sistemas de seguimiento de objetos móviles para lograr un mayor grado de robustez y comprensión de la escena. La extensión propuesta se divide en dos direcciones separadas. La primera puede considerarse local, ya que está orientada a la mejora y enriquecimiento de las posiciones estimadas para los objetos móviles observados directamente por las cámaras del sistema; dicha extensión se logra mediante el desarrollo de un sistema multi-cámara de seguimiento 3D, capaz de proporcionar consistentemente las posiciones 3D de múltiples objetos a partir de las observaciones capturadas por un conjunto de sensores calibrados y con campos de visión solapados. La segunda extensión puede considerarse global, dado que su objetivo consiste en proporcionar un contexto global para relacionar las observaciones locales realizadas por una cámara con una escena de mucho mayor tamaño; para ello se propone un sistema automático de localización de cámaras basado en las trayectorias observadas de varios objetos móviles y en un mapa esquemático de la escena global monitorizada. Ambas líneas de investigación se tratan utilizando, como marco común, técnicas de estimación bayesiana: esta elección está justificada por la versatilidad y flexibilidad proporcionada por dicho marco estadístico, que permite la combinación natural de múltiples fuentes de información sobre los parámetros a estimar, así como un tratamiento riguroso de la incertidumbre asociada a las mismas mediante la inclusión de modelos de observación específicamente diseñados. Además, el marco seleccionado abre grandes posibilidades operacionales, puesto que permite la creación de diferentes métodos numéricos adaptados a las necesidades y características específicas de distintos problemas tratados. El sistema de seguimiento 3D con múltiples cámaras propuesto está específicamente diseñado para permitir descripciones esquemáticas de las medidas realizadas individualmente por cada una de las cámaras del sistema: esta elección de diseño, por tanto, no asume ningún algoritmo específico de detección o seguimiento 2D en ninguno de los sensores de la red, y hace que el sistema propuesto sea aplicable a redes reales de vigilancia con capacidades limitadas tanto en términos de procesamiento como de transmision. La combinación robusta de las observaciones capturadas individualmente por las cámaras, ruidosas, incompletas y probablemente contaminadas por falsas detecciones, se basa en un metodo de asociación bayesiana basado en geometría y color: los resultados de dicha asociación permiten el seguimiento 3D de los objetos de la escena mediante el uso de un filtro de partículas. El sistema de fusión de observaciones propuesto tiene, como principales características, una gran precisión en términos de localización 3D de objetos, y una destacable capacidad de recuperación tras eventuales errores debidos a un número insuficiente de datos de entrada. El sistema automático de localización de cámaras se basa en la observación de múltiples objetos móviles y un mapa esquemático de las áreas transitables del entorno monitorizado para inferir la posición absoluta de dicho sensor. Para este propósito, se propone un novedoso marco bayesiano que combina modelos dinámicos inducidos por el mapa en los objetos móviles presentes en la escena con las trayectorias observadas por la cámara, lo que representa un enfoque nunca utilizado en la literatura existente. El sistema de localización se divide en dos sub-tareas diferenciadas, debido a que cada una de estas tareas requiere del diseño de algoritmos específicos de muestreo para explotar en profundidad las características del marco desarrollado: por un lado, análisis de la ambigüedad del caso específicamente tratado y estimación aproximada de la localización de la cámara, y por otro, refinado de la localización de la cámara. El sistema completo, diseñado y probado para el caso específico de localización de cámaras en entornos de tráfico urbano, podría tener aplicación también en otros entornos y sensores de diferentes modalidades tras ciertas adaptaciones. ABSTRACT Mono-camera tracking systems have proved their capabilities for moving object trajectory analysis and scene monitoring, but their robustness and semantic possibilities are strongly limited by their local and monocular nature and are often insufficient for realistic surveillance applications. This thesis is aimed at extending the possibilities of moving object tracking systems to a higher level of scene understanding. The proposed extension comprises two separate directions. The first one is local, since is aimed at enriching the inferred positions of the moving objects within the area of the monitored scene directly covered by the cameras of the system; this task is achieved through the development of a multi-camera system for robust 3D tracking, able to provide 3D tracking information of multiple simultaneous moving objects from the observations reported by a set of calibrated cameras with semi-overlapping fields of view. The second extension is global, as is aimed at providing local observations performed within the field of view of one camera with a global context relating them to a much larger scene; to this end, an automatic camera positioning system relying only on observed object trajectories and a scene map is designed. The two lines of research in this thesis are addressed using Bayesian estimation as a general unifying framework. Its suitability for these two applications is justified by the flexibility and versatility of that stochastic framework, which allows the combination of multiple sources of information about the parameters to estimate in a natural and elegant way, addressing at the same time the uncertainty associated to those sources through the inclusion of models designed to this end. In addition, it opens multiple possibilities for the creation of different numerical methods for achieving satisfactory and efficient practical solutions to each addressed application. The proposed multi-camera 3D tracking method is specifically designed to work on schematic descriptions of the observations performed by each camera of the system: this choice allows the use of unspecific off-the-shelf 2D detection and/or tracking subsystems running independently at each sensor, and makes the proposal suitable for real surveillance networks with moderate computational and transmission capabilities. The robust combination of such noisy, incomplete and possibly unreliable schematic descriptors relies on a Bayesian association method, based on geometry and color, whose results allow the tracking of the targets in the scene with a particle filter. The main features exhibited by the proposal are, first, a remarkable accuracy in terms of target 3D positioning, and second, a great recovery ability after tracking losses due to insufficient input data. The proposed system for visual-based camera self-positioning uses the observations of moving objects and a schematic map of the passable areas of the environment to infer the absolute sensor position. To this end, a new Bayesian framework combining trajectory observations and map-induced dynamic models for moving objects is designed, which represents an approach to camera positioning never addressed before in the literature. This task is divided into two different sub-tasks, setting ambiguity analysis and approximate position estimation, on the one hand, and position refining, on the other, since they require the design of specific sampling algorithms to correctly exploit the discriminative features of the developed framework. This system, designed for camera positioning and demonstrated in urban traffic environments, can also be applied to different environments and sensors of other modalities after certain required adaptations.

A linked data approach to sentiment and emotion analysis of twitter in the financial domain

Sentiment analysis has recently gained popularity in the financial domain thanks to its capability to predict the stock market based on the wisdom of the crowds. Nevertheless, current sentiment indicators are still silos that cannot be combined to get better insight about the mood of different communities. In this article we propose a Linked Data approach for modelling sentiment and emotions about financial entities. We aim at integrating sentiment information from different communities or providers, and complements existing initiatives such as FIBO. The ap- proach has been validated in the semantic annotation of tweets of several stocks in the Spanish stock market, including its sentiment information.