Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Evaluation of the conventional surveying equipment applied to deformation analysis of heritage buildings. A case study: the bell tower of Santa María la Blanca church in Agoncillo (La Rioja, Spain)

Contributed to: "Measuring the Changes": 13th FIG International Symposium on Deformation Measurements and Analysis; 4th IAG Symposium on Geodesy for Geotechnical and Structural Enginering (Lisbon, Portugal, May 12-15, 2008).

Mollusks taken by Beam Trawl in the vicinity of Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary on the Continental Shelf off Georgia, Southeastern U.S.

Mollusks were sorted from samples of shell hash (obtained as bycatch during NOAA-sponsored studies of larval and juvenile fish distribution), and analyzed to gain qualitative insights on species composition, distribution and habitat affinities of the molluscan fauna on the continental shelf off Georgia. Samples came from beam trawls at 37 stations located in the immediate vicinity and offshore of the Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) at depths of 4.9 to 103 m. Two hundred sixty-three (263) taxa of mollusks (~58% as dead shells only) were collected, and nearly all (~99%) were identified to the species level. Ninety-seven of these taxa appeared in samples from one or more of the four stations established near the corners of the GRNMS. Samples were highly variable in terms of appearance, volume and species composition of mollusks, reflecting the extreme patchiness of benthic habitats within this region of the continental shelf. With very few exceptions, the mollusks were generally characteristic of either the Carolinian or Caribbean faunal provinces. The Georgia continental shelf, however, was outside the previously reported ranges for at least 16 of the species reported here. Most of these extralimital species were known previously from the East Coast of Florida, and represented northerly range extensions of 1-5° Latitude (110-560 km). One species represented a more significant range extension from the Bahamas and the southern Caribbean, and two represented southerly range extensions, known previously from only as close as off North Carolina. The high incidence of range extensions found in this study and the potential for discovery of additional species are discussed in the context of the diversity and patchiness of benthic habitats on the continental shelf of the region, and the sensitivity of species recruitment to variability in Gulf Stream patterns and global climate change. (PDF contains 52 pages)

Analysis of sea turtle bycatch in the commercial shrimp fisheries of Southeast U.S. waters and the Gulf of Mexico

The coastal shrimp trawl fisheries have long been the focus of conservation actions to reduce turtle bycatch and mortality in the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. Atlantic (NRC, 1990). Calculation of catch rates of sea turtles in shrimp trawls is necessary to evaluate the impact on sea turtle populations. In this paper we analyze sea turtle bycatch to provide an estimate of the current number of interactions with otter trawl gear as well as an estimate of the number of fatal inions in Southeast U.S. waters and the Gulf of Mexico. We also provide an estimate of the number of individuals likely to die in the future with the new regulations that will require an increase in the size of the escape openings in trutle excluder devices (TEDs). The new regulations will allow many more turtles to escape. Other gears also are discussed. (PDF contains 24 pages)

Assessment of cobia, Rachycentron canadum, in the waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

This assessment applies to cobia (Rachycentron canadum) located in the territorial waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Separation of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean is defined by the seaward extension of the Dade/Monroe county line in south Florida. Mixing of fish between the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico occurs in the Florida Keys during winter months. Cobia annually migrate north in early spring in the Gulf to spawning grounds in the northern Gulf of Mexico, returning to the Florida Keys by winter. Catches of cobia in the Gulf of Mexico are dominated by recreational landings, accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Since 1980, the landings of cobia in the recreational fishery have remained fairly stable at around 400-600 mt with a slight peak of 1,014 mt in 1997. The recreational fishery was estimated to have landed 471 mt in 2000. The landings from the commercial fishery have shown a steady increase from 45 mt in 1980 to a peak of 120 mt in 1994, followed by a decline to 62 mt in 2000. The previous assessment of cobia occurred in 1996 using a virtual population analysis (VPA) model. For this analysis a surplus-production model (ASPIC) and a forward-projecting, age-structured population model programmed in the AD Model Builder (ADMB) software were applied to cobia data from the Gulf of Mexico. The primary data consisted of four catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) indices derived from the Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) (1981-1999), Southeast region headboat survey (1986-1999), Texas creel survey (1983-1999), and shrimp bycatch estimates (1980-1999). Length samples were available from the commercial (1983-2000) and recreational (1981-2000) fisheries. The ASPIC model applied to the cobia data provided unsatisfactory results. The ADMB model fit described the observed length composition data and fishery landings fairly well based on graphical examination of model residuals. The CPUE indices indicated some disagreement for various years, but the model fit an overall increasing trend from 1992-1997 for the MRFSS, headboat, and Texas creel indices. The shrimp bycatch CPUE was treated as a recruitment index in the model. The fit to these data followed an upward trend in recruitment from 1988-1997, but did not fit the 1994-1997 data points very well. This was likely the result of conflicting information from other data sources. Natural mortality (M) for cobia is unknown. As a result, a range of values for M from 0.2-0.4, based on longevity and growth parameters, were selected for use in the age-structured model. The choice of natural mortality appears to greatly influence the perceived status of the population. Population status as measured by spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to the value at maximum sustainable yield (SSB2000/SSBMSY), spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to virgin spawning stock biomass (SSB2000/S0), and static spawning stock biomass per recruit (SSBR) all indicate the population is either depleted, near MSY, or well above MSY depending on the choice of M. The variance estimates for these benchmarks are very large and in most cases ranges from depleted to very healthy status. The only statement that can be made with any degree of certainty about cobia in the Gulf of Mexico is that the population has increased since the 1980s. (PDF contains 61 pages)

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Seasonal, horizontal, and vertical distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a in the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem

The broad scale features in the horizontal, vertical, and seasonal distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a on the northeast U.S. continental shelf are described based on 57,088 measurements made during 78 oceanographic surveys from 1977 through 1988. Highest mean water column chlorophyll concentration (Chlw,) is usually observed in nearshore areas adjacent to the mouths of the estuaries in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), over the shallow water on Georges Bank, and a small area sampled along the southeast edge of Nantucket Shoals. Lowest Chlw «0.125 ug l-1) is usually restricted to the most seaward stations sampled along the shelf-break and the central deep waters in the Gulf of Maine. There is at least a twofold seasonal variation in phytoplankton biomass in all areas, with highest phytoplankton concentrations (m3) and highest integrated standing stocks (m2) occurring during the winter-spring (WS) bloom, and the lowest during summer, when vertical density stratification is maximal. In most regions, a secondary phytoplankton biomass pulse is evident during convective destratification in fall, usually in October. Fall bloom in some areas of Georges Bank approaches the magnitude of the WS-bloom, but Georges Bank and Middle Atlantic Bight fall blooms are clearly subordinate to WS-blooms. Measurements of chlorophyll in two size-fractions of the phytoplankton, netplankton (>20 um) and nanoplankton «20 um), revealed that the smaller nanoplankton are responsible for most of the phytoplankton biomass on the northeast U.S. shelf. Netplankton tend to be more abundant in nearshore areas of the MAB and shallow water on Georges Bank, where chlorophyll a is usually high; nanoplankton dominate deeper water at the shelf-break and deep water in the Gulf of Maine, where Chlw is usually low. As a general rule, the percent of phytoplankton in the netplankton size-fraction increases with increasing depth below surface and decreases proceeding offshore. There are distinct seasonal and regional patterns in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll a and percent netplankton, as revealed in composite vertical profiles of chlorophyll a constructed for 11 layers of the water column. Subsurface chlorophyll a maxima are ubiquitous during summer in stratified water. Chlorophyll a in the subsurface maximum layer is generally 2-8 times the concentration in the overlying and underlying water and approaches 50 to 75% of the levels observed in surface water during WS-bloom. The distribution of the ratio of the subsurface maximum chlorophyll a to surface chlorophyll a (SSR) during summer parallels the shelfwide pattern for stability, indexed as the difference in density (sigma-t) between 40 m and surface (stability 40. The weakest stability and lowest SSR's are found in shallow tidally-mixed water on Georges Bank; the greatest stability and highest SSR's (8-12:1) are along the mid and outer MAB shelf, over the winter residual water known as the "cold band." On Georges Bank, the distribution of SSR and the stability40 are roughly congruent with the pattern for maximum surface tidal current velocity, with values above 50 cms-1 defining SSR's less than 2:1 and the well-mixed area. Physical factors (bathymetry, vertical mixing by strong tidal currents, and seasonal and regional differences in the intensity and duration of vertical stratification) appear to explain much of the variability in phytoplankton chlorophyll a throughout this ecosystem. (PDF file contains 126 pages.)

The South Atlantic Alliance: A southeastern U.S. state Governors initiative to address opportunities and challenges embodied in the region's coastal and ocean domain

The pressures placed on the natural, environmental, economic, and cultural sectors from continued growth, population shifts, weather and climate, and environmental quality are increasing exponentially in the southeastern U.S. region. Our growing understanding of the relationship of humans with the marine environment is leading us to explore new ecosystem-based approaches to coastal management, marine resources planning, and coastal adaptation that engages multiple state jurisdictions. The urgency of the situation calls for coordinated regional actions by the states, in conjunction with supporting partners and leveraging a diversity of resources, to address critical issues in sustaining our coastal and ocean ecosystems and enhancing the quality of life of our citizens. The South Atlantic Alliance (www.southatlanticalliance.org) was formally established on October 19, 2009 to “implement science-based policies and solutions that enhance and protect the value of coastal and ocean resources of the southeastern United States which support the region's culture and economy now and for future generations.” The Alliance, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, will provide a regional mechanism for collaborating, coordinating, and sharing information in support of resource sustainability; improved regional alignment; cooperative planning and leveraging of resources; integrated research, observations, and mapping; increased awareness of the challenges facing the South Atlantic region; and inclusiveness and integration at all levels. Although I am preparing and presenting this overview of the South Atlantic Alliance and its current status, there are a host of representatives from agencies within the four states, universities, NGOs, and ongoing southeastern regional ocean and coastal programs that are contributing significant time, expertise, and energy to the success of the Alliance; information presented herein and to be presented in my oral presentation was generated by the collaborative efforts of these professionals. I also wish to acknowledge the wisdom and foresight of the Governors of the four states in establishing this exciting regional ocean partnership. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Creating dangerously: literature as an instrument of resistance in the works of Edwidge Danticat

O objetivo desta dissertação é discutir o lugar que o fazer literário ocupa no processo de resistência à poderes hegemônicos. Como fontes primárias centrais, foram escolhidos o romance histórico The Farming of Bones (1998) e a narrativa autobiográfica Brother, Im Dying (2007), ambos escritos pela autora haitiana-americana Edwidge Danticat. Em The Farming of Bones, Danticat reconstrói ficcionalmente o trágico e obscuro episódio ocorrido em 1937 quando o então ditador da República Dominicana, Rafael Trujillo, ordenou o extermínio de todos os haitianos que residiam e trabalhavam em cidades dominicanas próximas à fronteira com o Haiti. O silêncio por parte dos governos de ambos os países em torno do massacre ainda perdura. A publicação do romance histórico de Danticat 61 anos após tal ato de terrorismo de Estado se torna, desta forma, exemplo de como o fazer literário e o fazer histórico podem fundir-se. Em Brother, Im Dying, Danticat narra a história da vida e da morte de suas duas figuras paternas, seu pai Andre (Mira) Dantica e seu tio Joseph Dantica (que a criou dos 4 aos 12 anos, no Haiti). Joseph, sobrevivente de um câncer de laringe, foi pastor batista e fundador de uma igreja e uma escola no Haiti. Morreu dois dias depois de pedir asilo político nos EUA e ser detido na prisão Krome, em Miami. Mira, que migrara no início da ditadura de François Duvalier para os EUA, onde trabalhou como taxista, morreu vítima de fibrose pulmonar poucos meses depois de seu irmão mais velho. Edwidge Danticat recebeu a notícia de que o quadro de seu pai era irreversível no mesmo dia em que descobriu que está grávida de sua primeira filha. Com uma escrita que abrange tanto a narrativa de si quanto a narrativa do outro, além das esferas públicas e privadas, Danticat cria em Brother, Im Dying um locus de fazer auto/biográfico que dialoga com questões de diáspora, identidade cultural e memória. Os ensaios publicados em Create Dangerously (2010) e as várias entrevistas concedidas por Danticat também reforçam meu argumento que Edwidge Danticat exerce seu papel de artista engajada através de seu fazer principalmente, mas não exclusivamente literário. Desta forma, a autora constrói uma possibilidade de resistência ao discurso hegemônico que opera tanto em seu país de origem quanto em seu país de residência.

Variations in eastern North Pacific demersal fish biomass based on the U.S. west coast groundfish bottom trawl survey (2003–2010)

In response to declining biomass of Northeast Pacific groundfish in the late 1990s and to improve the scientific basis for management of the fishery, the Northwest Fisheries Science Center standardized and enhanced their annual bottom trawl survey in 2003. The survey was expanded to include the entire area along the U.S. west coast at depths of 55–1280 m. Coast-wide biomass and species richness significantly decreased during the first eight years (2003–10) of this fishery-independent survey. We observed an overall tendency toward declining biomass for 62 dominant taxa combined (fishery target and nontarget species) and four of seven subgroups (including cartilaginous fish, flatfishes, shelf rockfishes, and other shelf species), despite increasing or variable biomass trends in individual species. These decreases occurred during a period of reduced catch for groundfish along the shelf and upper slope regions relative to historical rates. We used information from multiple stock assessments to aggregate species into three groups: 1) with strong recruitment, 2) without strong recruitment in 1999, and 3) with unknown recruitment level. For each group, we evaluated whether declining biomass was primarily related to depletion (using year as a proxy) or environmental factors (i.e., variation in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). According to Akaike’s information criterion, changes in aggregate biomass for species with strong recruitment were more closely related to year, whereas those with no strong recruitment were more closely related to climate. The significant decline in biomass for species without strong recruitment confirms that factors other than depletion of the exceptional 1999 year class may be responsible for the observed decrease in biomass along the U.S. west coast.

Re-estimation of small-scale fishery catches for U.S. flag-associated island areas in the western Pacific: the last 50 years

Nearshore fisheries in the tropical Pacific play an important role, both culturally and as a reliable source of food security, but often remain under-reported in statistics, leading to undervaluation of their importance to communities. We re-estimated nonpelagic catches for Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), and summarize previous work for American Samoa for 1950−2002. For all islands combined, catches declined by 77%, contrasting with increasing trends indicated by reported data. For individual island entities, re-estima-tion suggested declines of 86%, 54%, and 79% for Guam, CNMI, and American Samoa, respectively. Except for Guam, reported data primarily represented commercial catches, and hence under-represented contributions by subsistence and recreational fisheries. Guam’s consistent use of creel surveys for data collection resulted in the most reliable reported catches for any of the islands considered. Our re-estimation makes the scale of under-reporting of total catches evident, and provides valuable baselines of likely historic patterns in fisheries catches.

Human Dimensions of Marine Fisheries: Using GIS to Illustrate Land-Sea Connections in the Northeast U.S. Herring, Clupea harengus, Fishery

Geographic Information Systems can help improve ocean literacy and inform our understanding of the human dimensions of marine resource use. This paper describes a pilot project where GIS is used to illustrate the connections between fish stocks and the social, cultural, and economic components of the fishery on land. This method of presenting and merging qualitative and quantitative data represents a new approach to assist fishery managers, participants, policy-makers, and other stakeholders in visualizing an often confusing and poorly understood web of interactions. The Atlantic herring fishery serves as a case study and maps from this pilot project are presented and methods reviewed.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Sea Turtles in the Western North Atlantic and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS)

Systematic surveys, along with opportunistic sightings, have provided important information on sea turtle (Cheloniidae and Dermochelydae) distributions, knowledge which can help reduce the risk of harmful human interaction. In 1991 and 1992, the Marine Recreational Fishery Sta- tistics Survey (MRFSS) of the National Ma- rine Fisheries Service, NOAA, provided a unique opportunity to gain additional, synoptic information on the spatial and temporal distribution of sea turtles along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts by asking recreational anglers if they had observed a sea turtle on their fishing trip. During the spring and summer months of those years, as water temperatures warmed, the MRFSS documented an increase in sea turtle sightings in inshore waters and in a northward direction along the U.S. Atlantic Coast and in a westward direction along the northern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern reversed in the late summer and fall months as water temperatures cooled, with sea turtles concentrating along Georgia and both coasts of Florida. Although the MRFSS did not provide species or size composition of sea turtles sighted, and effort varied depending upon location of fishing activity and time of year anglers were queried, it did provide an additional and useful means of ascertaining spatial and temporal distributions of sea turtles along these coasts.

The 1996 U.S. Purse Seine Fishery for Tropical Tunas in the Central-Western Pacific Ocean

The U.S. tropical tuna purse seine fleet has fished the central-western Pacific Ocean under the South Pacific Tuna Treaty since 1988. The 1996 fishery was the poorest since the start ofthe Treaty. Fishing effort declined due to the financial collapse of a large fishing enterprise. Catches reached record lows for yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, and skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis, and continued a declining trend that started in 1995. Catch rates also decreased to the lowest levels since 1991. Whether this declining trend in catch rates is due to reduced availability of fish caused by cyclic ocean environmental changes affecting vulnerability or to reduced abundance from excessive fishing pressure is not yet known and needs to be assessed.