On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number R-0 is usually defined as the average number of new infections caused by a single infective individual introduced into a completely susceptible population. According to this definition. R-0 is related to the initial stage of the spreading of a contagious disease. However, from epidemiological models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE), R-0 is commonly derived from a linear stability analysis and interpreted as a bifurcation parameter: typically, when R-0 >1, the contagious disease tends to persist in the population because the endemic stationary solution is asymptotically stable: when R-0 <1, the corresponding pathogen tends to naturally disappear because the disease-free stationary solution is asymptotically stable. Here we intend to answer the following question: Do these two different approaches for calculating R-0 give the same numerical values? In other words, is the number of secondary infections caused by a unique sick individual equal to the threshold obtained from stability analysis of steady states of ODE? For finding the answer, we use a susceptibleinfective-recovered (SIR) model described in terms of ODE and also in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. The values of R-0 obtained from both approaches are compared, showing good agreement. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variations in peak expiratory flow measurements associated to air pollution and allergic sensitization in children in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background In the last 20 years, there has been an increase in the incidence of allergic respiratory diseases worldwide and exposure to air pollution has been discussed as one of the factors associated with this increase. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of air pollution on peak expiratory flow (PEF) and FEV1 in children with and without allergic sensitization. Methods Ninety-six children were followed from April to July, 2004 with spirometry measurements. They were tested for allergic sensitization (IgE, skin prick test, eosinophilia) and asked about allergic symptoms. Air pollution, temperature, and relative humidity data were available. Results Decrements in PEF were observed with previous 24-hr average exposure to air pollution, as well as with 310-day average exposure and were associated mainly with PM10, NO2, and O3 in all three categories of allergic sensitization. Even though allergic sensitized children tended to present larger decrements in the PEF measurements they were not statistically different from the non-allergic sensitized. Decrements in FEV1 were observed mainly with previous 24-hr average exposure and 3-day moving average. Conclusions Decrements in PEF associated with air pollution were observed in children independent from their allergic sensitization status. Their daily exposure to air pollution can be responsible for a chronic inflammatory process that might impair their lung growth and later their lung function in adulthood. Am. J. Ind. Med. 55:10871098, 2012. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimal Code Set Selection and Security Issues in Spectral Phase-Encoded Time Spreading (SPECTS) OCDMA Systems

In this paper, we perform a thorough analysis of a spectral phase-encoded time spreading optical code division multiple access (SPECTS-OCDMA) system based on Walsh-Hadamard (W-H) codes aiming not only at finding optimal code-set selections but also at assessing its loss of security due to crosstalk. We prove that an inadequate choice of codes can make the crosstalk between active users to become large enough so as to cause the data from the user of interest to be detected by other user. The proposed algorithm for code optimization targets code sets that produce minimum bit error rate (BER) among all codes for a specific number of simultaneous users. This methodology allows us to find optimal code sets for any OCDMA system, regardless the code family used and the number of active users. This procedure is crucial for circumventing the unexpected lack of security due to crosstalk. We also show that a SPECTS-OCDMA system based on W-H 32(64) fundamentally limits the number of simultaneous users to 4(8) with no security violation due to crosstalk. More importantly, we prove that only a small fraction of the available code sets is actually immune to crosstalk with acceptable BER (<10(-9)) i.e., approximately 0.5% for W-H 32 with four simultaneous users, and about 1 x 10(-4)% for W-H 64 with eight simultaneous users.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolandia Hospital/Unicamp

Objective: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. Methods: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the Sao Joao da Boa Vista Administrative Region). Results: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. Conclusion: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolandia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.

Milky Way demographics with the VVV survey I. The 84-million star colour-magnitude diagram of the Galactic bulge

Context. The Milky Way (MW) bulge is a fundamental Galactic component for understanding the formation and evolution of galaxies, in particular our own. The ESO Public Survey VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea is a deep near-IR survey mapping the Galactic bulge and southern plane. Particularly for the bulge area, VVV is covering similar to 315 deg(2). Data taken during 2010 and 2011 covered the entire bulge area in the JHKs bands. Aims. We used VVV data for the whole bulge area as a single and homogeneous data set to build for the first time a single colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) for the entire Galactic bulge. Methods. Photometric data in the JHK(s) bands were combined to produce a single and huge data set containing 173 150 467 sources in the three bands, for the similar to 315 deg(2) covered by VVV in the bulge. Selecting only the data points flagged as stellar, the total number of sources is 84 095 284. Results. We built the largest colour-magnitude diagrams published up to date, containing 173.1+ million sources for all data points, and more than 84.0 million sources accounting for the stellar sources only. The CMD has a complex shape, mostly owing to the complexity of the stellar population and the effects of extinction and reddening towards the Galactic centre. The red clump (RC) giants are seen double in magnitude at b similar to -8 degrees-10 degrees, while in the inner part (b similar to -3 degrees) they appear to be spreading in colour, or even splitting into a secondary peak. Stellar population models show the predominance of main-sequence and giant stars. The analysis of the outermost bulge area reveals a well-defined sequence of late K and M dwarfs, seen at (J - K-s) similar to 0.7-0.9 mag and K-s greater than or similar to 14 mag. Conclusions. The interpretation of the CMD yields important information about the MW bulge, showing the fingerprint of its structure and content. We report a well-defined red dwarf sequence in the outermost bulge, which is important for the planetary transit searches of VVV. The double RC in magnitude seen in the outer bulge is the signature of the X-shaped MW bulge, while the spreading of the RC in colour, and even its splitting into a secondary peak, are caused by reddening effects. The region around the Galactic centre is harder to interpret because it is strongly affected by reddening and extinction.

Development of an integrative cessation program for co-smokers of cigarettes and cannabis: demand analysis, program description, and acceptability

Abstract Background Tobacco and cannabis use are strongly interrelated, but current national and international cessation programs typically focus on one substance, and address the other substance either only marginally or not at all. This study aimed to identify the demand for, and describe the development and content of, the first integrative group cessation program for co-smokers of cigarettes and cannabis. Methods First, a preliminary study using expert interviews, user focus groups with (ex-)smokers, and an online survey was conducted to investigate the demand for, and potential content of, an integrative smoking cessation program (ISCP) for tobacco and cannabis co-smokers. This study revealed that both experts and co-smokers considered an ISCP to be useful but expected only modest levels of readiness for participation.Based on the findings of the preliminary study, an interdisciplinary expert team developed a course concept and a recruitment strategy. The developed group cessation program is based on current treatment techniques (such as motivational interviewing, cognitive behavioural therapy, and self-control training) and structured into six course sessions.The program was evaluated regarding its acceptability among participants and course instructors. Results Both the participants and course instructors evaluated the course positively. Participants and instructors especially appreciated the group discussions and the modules that were aimed at developing personal strategies that could be applied during simultaneous cessation of tobacco and cannabis, such as dealing with craving, withdrawal, and high-risk situations. Conclusions There is a clear demand for a double cessation program for co-users of cigarettes and cannabis, and the first group cessation program tailored for these users has been developed and evaluated for acceptability. In the near future, the feasibility of the program will be evaluated. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15248397

Evaluation of peak cough flow in Brazilian healthy adults

Abstract Introduction In this study we aimed to evaluate the peak cough flow (PCF) in healthy Brazilian subjects. Methods We evaluated 484 healthy subjects between 18 and 40 years old. Subjects were seated and oriented were asked to perform a maximal inspiration followed by a quick, short and explosive expiration on the peak flow meter. Three measures were carried out and recorded the average of the three results for each individual. Results The PCF values ranged between 240 and 500 L/min. The PCF values were lower in females than in males. The PCF was inversely proportional to age. Conclusion The values for Brazilian adult healthy subjects regarding PCF were between 240 and 500 L/min.

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolândia Hospital/Unicamp

OBJECTIVE: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the São João da Boa Vista Administrative Region). RESULTS: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. CONCLUSION: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolândia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.

Accessibility and demand at an Emergency Care Unit: the user's perspective

AIM: To analyze the search for Emergency Care (EC) in the Western Health District of Ribeirão Preto (São Paulo), in order to identify the reasons why users turn to these services in situations that are not characterized as urgencies and emergencies. METHODS: A qualitative and descriptive study was undertaken. A guiding script was applied to 23 EC users, addressing questions related to health service accessibility and welcoming, problem solving, reason to visit the EC and care comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The subjects reported that, at the Primary Health Care services, receiving care and scheduling consultations took a long time and that the opening hours of these services coincide with their work hours. At the EC service, access to technologies and medicines was easier. CONCLUSION: Primary health care services have been unable to turn into the entry door to the health system, being replaced by emergency services, putting a significant strain on these services' capacity.

Speckle patterns during the spreading of lung surfactant.

Pulmonary surfactant is a very important product in the medical treatment of the syndrome of insufficiency respiratory in neonates. The synthesis of this surfactant in labs need to optimize the rate of spreading in the alveolar interstitial liquid obtaining a monolayer of the phospholipids membrane base capable to maintains several of the dynamical properties of the respiratory system during breathing. The recover of theses mechanical properties has to be archived using the minimal quantities of product and with the optimal proteins composition (SP-B in special). In this paper we show our results of obtaining and process speckle pattern images of the spreading of phospholipids membrane composed the matrix of this product (DPPC) when physiologic interstitial liquid are presented.

Effects of ATP-induced leg vasodilation on VO2 peak and leg O2 extraction during maximal exercise in humans

[EN] During maximal whole body exercise VO2 peak is limited by O2 delivery. In turn, it is though that blood flow at near-maximal exercise must be restrained by the sympathetic nervous system to maintain mean arterial pressure. To determine whether enhancing vasodilation across the leg results in higher O2 delivery and leg VO2 during near-maximal and maximal exercise in humans, seven men performed two maximal incremental exercise tests on the cycle ergometer. In random order, one test was performed with and one without (control exercise) infusion of ATP (8 mg in 1 ml of isotonic saline solution) into the right femoral artery at a rate of 80 microg.kg body mass-1.min-1. During near-maximal exercise (92% of VO2 peak), the infusion of ATP increased leg vascular conductance (+43%, P<0.05), leg blood flow (+20%, 1.7 l/min, P<0.05), and leg O2 delivery (+20%, 0.3 l/min, P<0.05). No effects were observed on leg or systemic VO2. Leg O2 fractional extraction was decreased from 85+/-3 (control) to 78+/-4% (ATP) in the infused leg (P<0.05), while it remained unchanged in the left leg (84+/-2 and 83+/-2%; control and ATP; n=3). ATP infusion at maximal exercise increased leg vascular conductance by 17% (P<0.05), while leg blood flow tended to be elevated by 0.8 l/min (P=0.08). However, neither systemic nor leg peak VO2 values where enhanced due to a reduction of O2 extraction from 84+/-4 to 76+/-4%, in the control and ATP conditions, respectively (P<0.05). In summary, the VO2 of the skeletal muscles of the lower extremities is not enhanced by limb vasodilation at near-maximal or maximal exercise in humans. The fact that ATP infusion resulted in a reduction of O2 extraction across the exercising leg suggests a vasodilating effect of ATP on less-active muscle fibers and other noncontracting tissues and that under normal conditions these regions are under high vasoconstrictor influence to ensure the most efficient flow distribution of the available cardiac output to the most active muscle fibers of the exercising limb.

Strong iron demand during hypoxia-induced erythropoiesis is associated with down-regulation of iron-related proteins and myoglobin in human skeletal muscle

[EN] Iron is essential for oxygen transport because it is incorporated in the heme of the oxygen-binding proteins hemoglobin and myoglobin. An interaction between iron homeostasis and oxygen regulation is further suggested during hypoxia, in which hemoglobin and myoglobin syntheses have been reported to increase. This study gives new insights into the changes in iron content and iron-oxygen interactions during enhanced erythropoiesis by simultaneously analyzing blood and muscle samples in humans exposed to 7 to 9 days of high altitude hypoxia (HA). HA up-regulates iron acquisition by erythroid cells, mobilizes body iron, and increases hemoglobin concentration. However, contrary to our hypothesis that muscle iron proteins and myoglobin would also be up-regulated during HA, this study shows that HA lowers myoglobin expression by 35% and down-regulates iron-related proteins in skeletal muscle, as evidenced by decreases in L-ferritin (43%), transferrin receptor (TfR; 50%), and total iron content (37%). This parallel decrease in L-ferritin and TfR in HA occurs independently of increased hypoxia-inducible factor 1 (HIF-1) mRNA levels and unchanged binding activity of iron regulatory proteins, but concurrently with increased ferroportin mRNA levels, suggesting enhanced iron export. Thus, in HA, the elevated iron requirement associated with enhanced erythropoiesis presumably elicits iron mobilization and myoglobin down-modulation, suggesting an altered muscle oxygen homeostasis.