POOR PERFORMANCE OF BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE LOCATION OF A QUANTITATIVE TRAIT LOUCS

The aim of many genetic studies is to locate the genomic regions (called quantitative trait loci, QTLs) that contribute to variation in a quantitative trait (such as body weight). Confidence intervals for the locations of QTLs are particularly important for the design of further experiments to identify the gene or genes responsible for the effect. Likelihood support intervals are the most widely used method to obtain confidence intervals for QTL location, but the non-parametric bootstrap has also been recommended. Through extensive computer simulation, we show that bootstrap confidence intervals are poorly behaved and so should not be used in this context. The profile likelihood (or LOD curve) for QTL location has a tendency to peak at genetic markers, and so the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of QTL location has the unusual feature of point masses at genetic markers; this contributes to the poor behavior of the bootstrap. Likelihood support intervals and approximate Bayes credible intervals, on the other hand, are shown to behave appropriately.

Choosing Smoothness Parameters for Smoothing Splines by Minimizing and Estimate of Risk

Smoothing splines are a popular approach for non-parametric regression problems. We use periodic smoothing splines to fit a periodic signal plus noise model to data for which we assume there are underlying circadian patterns. In the smoothing spline methodology, choosing an appropriate smoothness parameter is an important step in practice. In this paper, we draw a connection between smoothing splines and REACT estimators that provides motivation for the creation of criteria for choosing the smoothness parameter. The new criteria are compared to three existing methods, namely cross-validation, generalized cross-validation, and generalization of maximum likelihood criteria, by a Monte Carlo simulation and by an application to the study of circadian patterns. For most of the situations presented in the simulations, including the practical example, the new criteria out-perform the three existing criteria.

Modeling multilevel sleep transitional data via Poisson log-linear multilevel models

This paper proposes Poisson log-linear multilevel models to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. We specifically propose a Bayesian Poisson regression model that is more flexible, scalable to larger studies, and easily fit than other attempts in the literature. We further use hierarchical random effects to account for pairings of individuals and repeated measures within those individuals, as comparing diseased to non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of epidemiologic importance. We estimate essentially non-parametric piecewise constant hazards and smooth them, and allow for time varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming piecewise constant hazards. This relationship allows us to synthesize two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear models with GEE for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed.

Mapping quantitative trait loci for osteochondrosis in fetlock and hock joints and palmar/plantar osseus fragments in fetlock joints of South German Coldblood horses

The aim of this study was to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) for osteochondrosis (OC) and palmar/plantar osseous fragments (POF) in fetlock joints in a whole-genome scan of 219 South German Coldblood horses. Symptoms of OC and POF were checked by radiography in 117 South German Coldblood horses at a mean age of 17 months. The radiographic examination comprised the fetlock and hock joints of all limbs. The genome scan included 157 polymorphic microsatellite markers. All microsatellite markers were equally spaced over the 31 autosomes and the X chromosome, with an average distance of 17.7 cM and a mean polymorphism information content (PIC) of 63%. Sixteen chromosomes harbouring putative QTL regions were further investigated by genotyping the animals with 93 additional markers. QTL that had chromosome-wide significance by non-parametric Z-means and LOD scores were found on 10 chromosomes. This included seven QTL for fetlock OC and one QTL on ECA18 associated with hock OC and fetlock OC. Significant QTL for POF in fetlock joints were located on equine chromosomes 1, 4, 8, 12 and 18. This genome scan is an important step towards the identification of genes responsible for OC in horses.

Relation of white matter anisotropy to visual memory in 17 healthy subjects

We performed a Rey visual design learning test (RVDLT) in 17 subjects and measured intervoxel coherence (IC) by DTI as an indication of connectivity to investigate if visual memory performance would depend on white matter structure in healthy persons. IC considers the orientation of the adjacent voxels and has a better signal-to-noise ratio than the commonly used fractional anisotropy index. Voxel-based t-test analysis of the IC values was used to identify neighboring voxel clusters with significant differences between 7 low and 10 high test performers. We detected 9 circumscribed significant clusters (p< .01) with lower IC values in low performers than in high performers, with centers of gravity located in left and right superior temporal region, corpus callosum, left superior longitudinal fascicle, and left optic radiation. Using non-parametric correlation analysis, IC and memory performance were significantly correlated in each of the 9 clusters (r< .61 to r< .81; df=15, p< .01 to p< .0001). The findings provide in vivo evidence for the contribution of white matter structure to visual memory in healthy people.

Truncated recombinant human SP-D attenuates emphysema and type II cell changes in SP-D deficient mice

BACKGROUND: Surfactant protein D (SP-D) deficient mice develop emphysema-like pathology associated with focal accumulations of foamy alveolar macrophages, an excess of surfactant phospholipids in the alveolar space and both hypertrophy and hyperplasia of alveolar type II cells. These findings are associated with a chronic inflammatory state. Treatment of SP-D deficient mice with a truncated recombinant fragment of human SP-D (rfhSP-D) has been shown to decrease the lipidosis and alveolar macrophage accumulation as well as production of proinflammatory chemokines. The aim of this study was to investigate if rfhSP-D treatment reduces the structural abnormalities in parenchymal architecture and type II cells characteristic of SP-D deficiency. METHODS: SP-D knock-out mice, aged 3 weeks, 6 weeks and 9 weeks were treated with rfhSP-D for 9, 6 and 3 weeks, respectively. All mice were sacrificed at age 12 weeks and compared to both PBS treated SP-D deficient and wild-type groups. Lung structure was quantified by design-based stereology at the light and electron microscopic level. Emphasis was put on quantification of emphysema, type II cell changes and intracellular surfactant. Data were analysed with two sided non-parametric Mann-Whitney U-test. MAIN RESULTS: After 3 weeks of treatment, alveolar number was higher and mean alveolar size was smaller compared to saline-treated SP-D knock-out controls. There was no significant difference concerning these indices of pulmonary emphysema within rfhSP-D treated groups. Type II cell number and size were smaller as a consequence of treatment. The total volume of lamellar bodies per type II cell and per lung was smaller after 6 weeks of treatment. CONCLUSION: Treatment of SP-D deficient mice with rfhSP-D leads to a reduction in the degree of emphysema and a correction of type II cell hyperplasia and hypertrophy. This supports the concept that rfhSP-D might become a therapeutic option in diseases that are characterized by decreased SP-D levels in the lung.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

Geospatial analysis of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) encroachment utilizing remotely sensed data

Utilizing remote sensing methods to assess landscape-scale ecological change are rapidly becoming a dominant force in the natural sciences. Powerful and robust non-parametric statistical methods are also actively being developed to compliment the unique characteristics of remotely sensed data. The focus of this research is to utilize these powerful, robust remote sensing and statistical approaches to shed light on woody plant encroachment into native grasslands--a troubling ecological phenomenon occurring throughout the world. Specifically, this research investigates western juniper encroachment within the sage-steppe ecosystem of the western USA. Western juniper trees are native to the intermountain west and are ecologically important by means of providing structural diversity and habitat for many species. However, after nearly 150 years of post-European settlement changes to this threatened ecosystem, natural ecological processes such as fire regimes no longer limit the range of western juniper to rocky refugia and other areas protected from short fire return intervals that are historically common to the region. Consequently, sage-steppe communities with high juniper densities exhibit negative impacts, such as reduced structural diversity, degraded wildlife habitat and ultimately the loss of biodiversity. Much of today's sage-steppe ecosystem is transitioning to juniper woodlands. Additionally, the majority of western juniper woodlands have not reached their full potential in both range and density. The first section of this research investigates the biophysical drivers responsible for juniper expansion patterns observed in the sage-steppe ecosystem. The second section is a comprehensive accuracy assessment of classification methods used to identify juniper tree cover from multispectral 1 m spatial resolution aerial imagery.

Effects of Ownership on Hospital Efficiency in Germany

The objective of our study was to evaluate the efficiency of public, private for-profit, and private non-profit hospitals in Germany. First, bootstrapped data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the efficiency of a panel (n = 1,046) of public, private for-profit, and private non-profit hospitals between 2002 and 2006. This was followed by a second-step truncated linear regression model with bootstrapped DEA efficiency scores as dependent variable. The results show that public hospitals performed significantly better than their private for-profit and non-profit counterparts. In addition, we found a significant positive association between hospital size and efficiency, and that competitive pressure had a significant negative impact on hospital efficiency.

Reflectance Transfer for Material Editing and Relighting

We present a new approach to diffuse reflectance estimation for dynamic scenes. Non-parametric image statistics are used to transfer reflectance properties from a static example set to a dynamic image sequence. The approach allows diffuse reflectance estimation for surface materials with inhomogeneous appearance, such as those which commonly occur with patterned or textured clothing. Material editing is also possible by transferring edited reflectance properties. Material reflectance properties are initially estimated from static images of the subject under multiple directional illuminations using photometric stereo. The estimated reflectance together with the corresponding image under uniform ambient illumination form a prior set of reference material observations. Material reflectance properties are then estimated for video sequences of a moving person captured under uniform ambient illumination by matching the observed local image statistics to the reference observations. Results demonstrate that the transfer of reflectance properties enables estimation of the dynamic surface normals and subsequent relighting combined with material editing. This approach overcomes limitations of previous work on material transfer and relighting of dynamic scenes which was limited to surfaces with regions of homogeneous reflectance. We evaluate our approach for relighting 3D model sequences reconstructed from multiple view video. Comparison to previous model relighting demonstrates improved reproduction of detailed texture and shape dynamics.

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

Swiss Patent Jurisprudence 2012

The new Swiss Federal Patent Court, with nationwide first-instance jurisdiction over all civil patent matters, has been operating since January 1, 2012. This article reviews and contextualizes the most important patent cases published in 2012 by the Swiss Federal Patent Court and the Swiss Federal Supreme Court. More specifically, the article covers cases on issues such as the evidentiary status of party expert opinions, the formal requirements for requests for injunctive relief, the infringement and non-obviousness tests employed by the Swiss Federal Patent Court, the use of reports and statements from technical judges in lieu of expert opinions, and the procedural devices for the pre-trial taking of evidence, in particular the new patent-specific device of precise description. The author suggests that designing the Federal Patent Court to include technically trained judges may lead to a more automatic adoption of the practices and case law of the European Patent Office. The article concludes that the revamped Swiss patent litigation system has the potential of turning Switzerland into a competitive venue for the adjudication of patent matters in Europe.

Genetic predisposition to prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (PC) is a significant economic and health burden in the U.S. and Europe but its causes are largely unknown. The most significant risk factors (after gender) are age and family history of the disease. A gene with high penetrance but low frequency on chromosome 1q, HPC 1, has been suggested to cause a proportion of the familial aggregation of PC but other more common genes, conferring less risk, are also thought to contribute to disease predisposition. We have pursued a strategy to study both types of genetic risk in PC. To identify high penetrance genes, affected men from thirteen families have been genotyped for genetic linkage analysis at six microsatellite markers spanning 45 cM of 1q24-25. Both LOD score and non-parametric statistics provide no significant support for HPC1 in this genomic region, although 3 of the families did combine to produce a LOD score of 0.9. These families will be included in a genome wide search for other PC predisposition genes as part of a multinational collaboration.^ For study of common genetic factors in PC development, leukocyte DNA samples from an unselected series of 55 patients and 67 controls have been examined for genetic differences in two other candidate genes, the androgen receptor gene, hAR, at Xq11-12, and the vitamin D receptor gene, hVDR, at 12q12-14. hAR was typed for two trinucleotide repeat length polymorphisms, (CAG)$\rm\sb{n}$ and (GGC)$\rm\sb{n},$ encoding polyglutamine and polyglycine tracts, respectively, which have been implicated in PC susceptibility. These data, combined with similarly processed patients and controls from the U.K. show no consistent association of allele length with PC risk. A novel finding, however, has been a significant association between the number of GGC repeats and the length of time between diagnosis and relapse in stage T1-T4 Caucasian patients irrespective of therapy and age of the patient. Of 49 patients who relapsed out of 108 entering the study, those with 16 or fewer GGC repeats had an average relapse-free-period of 101 (+/$-$7.7) months while for those with more than 16 repeats the period averaged 48 (+/$-$2.9) months, a difference of 2.1 fold or 4.4 years.^ The second gene, hVDR, was genotyped at two polymorphisms, a synonymous C/T substitution in exon 9 identified by differential TaqI enzymatic digestion and a variable length polyA tract in the 3$\sp\prime$ UTR. Although these polymorphisms are in strong linkage disequilibrium only the polyA region showed a possible association with PC risk. Men homozygous for alleles with fewer than 18 A's had an increased risk (OR = 3.0, p = 0.0578) compared to controls. This result is opposite to the findings of others and may either indicate off-setting random errors which together balance out to no significant overall effect or reflect more complex genetic and/or environmental associations.^ Overall, this research suggests that single gene familial predisposition may be less prominent in PC than in other cancers and that the characteristics of PC pathology may be useful in identifying the effects of common genetic factors. ^

A nonparametric method of comparing the partial areas under two correlated receiver operating characteristic curves

A non-parametric method was developed and tested to compare the partial areas under two correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Based on the theory of generalized U-statistics the mathematical formulas have been derived for computing ROC area, and the variance and covariance between the portions of two ROC curves. A practical SAS application also has been developed to facilitate the calculations. The accuracy of the non-parametric method was evaluated by comparing it to other methods. By applying our method to the data from a published ROC analysis of CT image, our results are very close to theirs. A hypothetical example was used to demonstrate the effects of two crossed ROC curves. The two ROC areas are the same. However each portion of the area between two ROC curves were found to be significantly different by the partial ROC curve analysis. For computation of ROC curves with large scales, such as a logistic regression model, we applied our method to the breast cancer study with Medicare claims data. It yielded the same ROC area computation as the SAS Logistic procedure. Our method also provides an alternative to the global summary of ROC area comparison by directly comparing the true-positive rates for two regression models and by determining the range of false-positive values where the models differ. ^