Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

Jobs, Unemployment, and Macroeconomic Transmission

Measuring Job Openings: Evidence from Swedish Plant Level Data. In modern macroeconomic models “job openings'' are a key component. Thus, when taking these models to the data we need an empirical counterpart to the theoretical concept of job openings. To achieve this, the literature relies on job vacancies measured either in survey or register data. Insofar as this concept captures the concept of job openings well we should see a tight relationship between vacancies and subsequent hires on the micro level. To investigate this, I analyze a new data set of Swedish hires and job vacancies on the plant level covering the period 2001-2012. I find that vacancies contain little power in predicting hires over and above (i) whether the number of vacancies is positive and (ii) plant size. Building on this, I propose an alternative measure of job openings in the economy. This measure (i) better predicts hiring at the plant level and (ii) provides a better fitting aggregate matching function vis-à-vis the traditional vacancy measure. Firm Level Evidence from Two Vacancy Measures. Using firm level survey and register data for both Sweden and Denmark we show systematic mis-measurement in both vacancy measures. While the register-based measure on the aggregate constitutes a quarter of the survey-based measure, the latter is not a super-set of the former. To obtain the full set of unique vacancies in these two databases, the number of survey vacancies should be multiplied by approximately 1.2. Importantly, this adjustment factor varies over time and across firm characteristics. Our findings have implications for both the search-matching literature and policy analysis based on vacancy measures: observed changes in vacancies can be an outcome of changes in mis-measurement, and are not necessarily changes in the actual number of vacancies. Swedish Unemployment Dynamics. We study the contribution of different labor market flows to business cycle variations in unemployment in the context of a dual labor market. To this end, we develop a decomposition method that allows for a distinction between permanent and temporary employment. We also allow for slow convergence to steady state which is characteristic of European labor markets. We apply the method to a new Swedish data set covering the period 1987-2012 and show that the relative contributions of inflows and outflows to/from unemployment are roughly 60/30. The remaining 10\% are due to flows not involving unemployment. Even though temporary contracts only cover 9-11\% of the working age population, variations in flows involving temporary contracts account for 44\% of the variation in unemployment. We also show that the importance of flows involving temporary contracts is likely to be understated if one does not account for non-steady state dynamics. The New Keynesian Transmission Mechanism: A Heterogeneous-Agent Perspective. We argue that a 2-agent version of the standard New Keynesian model---where a ``worker'' receives only labor income and a “capitalist'' only profit income---offers insights about how income inequality affects the monetary transmission mechanism. Under rigid prices, monetary policy affects the distribution of consumption, but it has no effect on output as workers choose not to change their hours worked in response to wage movements. In the corresponding representative-agent model, in contrast, hours do rise after a monetary policy loosening due to a wealth effect on labor supply: profits fall, thus reducing the representative worker's income. If wages are rigid too, however, the monetary transmission mechanism is active and resembles that in the corresponding representative-agent model. Here, workers are not on their labor supply curve and hence respond passively to demand, and profits are procyclical.

Off-farm labour supply and labour markets in rapidly changing circumstances:Bulgaria during transition

This study examines off-farm labor supply in the rapidly changing conditions of Bulgaria during the 1990s. In doing so, we make use of three different waves of the Bulgarian Integrated Household Survey, each reflecting remarkably different environmental conditions. The results suggest that standard theories of off-farm labor supply provide little guidance in situations characterized by chronic excess supply in the off-farm labor market and/or rapidly changing circumstances. In particular, the results show (1) that off-farm employment throughout the transition was predominantly determined by demand rather than by supply, and (2) that the magnitude and statistical significance of the various determinants are very sensitive to changing environmental conditions. As such, the results can be extremely relevant for both theory and policy for the many countries which may still need to go through privatization and painful restructuring as a result of financial crises and globalization.

A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.

A new VRPPD model and a hybrid heuristic solution approach for e-tailing

We analyze a business model for e-supermarkets to enable multi-product sourcing capacity through co-opetition (collaborative competition). The logistics aspect of our approach is to design and execute a network system where “premium” goods are acquired from vendors at multiple locations in the supply network and delivered to customers. Our specific goals are to: (i) investigate the role of premium product offerings in creating critical mass and profit; (ii) develop a model for the multiple-pickup single-delivery vehicle routing problem in the presence of multiple vendors; and (iii) propose a hybrid solution approach. To solve the problem introduced in this paper, we develop a hybrid metaheuristic approach that uses a Genetic Algorithm for vendor selection and allocation, and a modified savings algorithm for the capacitated VRP with multiple pickup, single delivery and time windows (CVRPMPDTW). The proposed Genetic Algorithm guides the search for optimal vendor pickup location decisions, and for each generated solution in the genetic population, a corresponding CVRPMPDTW is solved using the savings algorithm. We validate our solution approach against published VRPTW solutions and also test our algorithm with Solomon instances modified for CVRPMPDTW.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Female employment from the household. Towards a comprehensive analysis of work-life articulation

Research on women’s employment has proliferated over recent decades, often under a perspective that conceptualizes female labour market activity as independent of male presences and absences in the productive and reproductive spheres. In the face of these approaches, the article argues the need to focus on the couple as the unit of analysis of work-life articulation. After referring to the main theoretical arguments that, from a gender perspective within labour studies, have pointed out the relevance of placing the household as the central space for the analysis of the sexual division of labour, the article reviews different empirical contributions that have incorporated such perspective in the international literature. Next, the state of the art in the Spanish literature is presented, before arguing the desirability of applying such framework of analysis to the study of employment and care work in Spanish households, which are at present undergoing major transformations.

Of Marx and Makers: an Historical Perspective on Generative Justice

In Marxist frameworks “distributive justice” depends on extracting value through a centralized state. Many new social movements—peer to peer economy, maker activism, community agriculture, queer ecology, etc.—take the opposite approach, keeping value in its unalienated form and allowing it to freely circulate from the bottom up. Unlike Marxism, there is no general theory for bottom-up, unalienated value circulation. This paper examines the concept of “generative justice” through an historical contrast between Marx’s writings and the indigenous cultures that he drew upon. Marx erroneously concluded that while indigenous cultures had unalienated forms of production, only centralized value extraction could allow the productivity needed for a high quality of life. To the contrary, indigenous cultures now provide a robust model for the “gift economy” that underpins open source technological production, agroecology, and restorative approaches to civil rights. Expanding Marx’s concept of unalienated labor value to include unalienated ecological (nonhuman) value, as well as the domain of freedom in speech, sexual orientation, spirituality and other forms of “expressive” value, we arrive at an historically informed perspective for generative justice. 

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Geochemical mass-balance and oxygen-isotope constrains on silcrete formation and its paleoclimatic implications in Southern Australia

Two geographically distinct silcrete associations are present in southern Australia, inland and eastern; these were sampled in central South Australia and central Victoria, respectively, At each site, both silicified and immediately adjacent unsilicified parent material were collected. Analytical data from these pairs were used to construct isocons, assuming Zr immobility, and to calculate the volume change and amount of silica introduced during silicification, These results, together with whole-rock oxygen isotope compositions, were used to determine the delta(18)O of th, introduced silica, The results show that the eastern silcretes in central Victoria are probably linked genetically to the associated basalts, weathering of which supplied the introduced silica, This conclusion is based on the close spatial connection between the two, as well as the substantial amount of introduced silica in the silcretes (greater than in the inland silcretes), resulting in volume increases in some eastern silcretes, Oxygen isotopic calculations for the silcretes indicate that the silica precipitated from groundwaters at temperatures slightly higher than present conditions. Silcrete formation apparently occurred during the Miocene and Pliocene (basalts in Victoria younger than Pliocene lack associated silcrete) and may reflect the much wetter climate in southeastern Australia at that time. The inland silcretes of central South Australia can be divided into pedogenic (the most common) and groundwater varieties. The pedogenic silcretes, which show typical soil features like columnar and nodular textures, contain moderate amounts of introduced silica that precipitated by evaporation from saline groundwaters, For the groundwater silcretes, which have massive textures and formed at or close to the water table, insufficient data are available to determine the mode of formation. The inland pedogenic silcretes have probably been farming from the Eocene-Miocene to the present, implying that conditions of seasonally high evaporation have occurred in central Australia during this time period. Thus silcrete formation depends on a complex interplay between climate and silica supply, and it is impossible to generalize that the presence of silcrete is indicative of a particular climate. Likewise, the elemental composition of silcretes, particularly Ti content, is not necessarily of climatic significance, Nevertheless, detailed geochemical and oxygen isotopic studies of a silcrete and its parent material can elucidate the mechanisms of silcrete formation, and if evaporation is indicated as a major factor in silcrete formation, then the climate at the time was likely to have been at least seasonally arid.

Maturation temperature and rainfall influence seed dormancy characteristics of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum)

The role of temperature and rainfall during seed development in modulating subsequent seed dormancy status was studied for Lolium rigidum Gaud. (annual ryegrass). Climatic parameters relating to geographic origin were compared with annual ryegrass seed dormancy characteristics for seeds collected from 12 sites across the southern Western Australian cropping region. Seed germination was tested soon after collection and periodically during subsequent after-ripening. Temperature in the year of seed development and long-term rainfall patterns showed correlations with aspects of seed dormancy, particularly the proportion of seeds remaining dormant following 5 months of after-ripening. Consequently, for one population the temperature (warm/cool) and water supply (adequate/reduced) during seed development were manipulated to investigate the role of maternal environment in the quantity and dormancy characteristics of seeds produced. Seeds from plants grown at warm temperatures were fewer in number, weighed less, and were less dormant than those from plants grown at cool temperature. Seeds that developed under both cool temperature and reduced moisture conditions lost dormancy faster than seeds from well-watered plants. Seed maturation environment, particularly temperature, can have a significant effect on annual ryegrass seed numbers and seed dormancy characteristics.

Spontaneous Interblink Time Distributions in Patients with Graves` Orbitopathy and Normal Subjects

PURPOSE. To determine the shape of spontaneous interblink time interval distributions obtained in a long observation period in normal subjects and patients with Graves` orbitopathy. METHODS. The magnetic search coil technique was used to register the spontaneous blinking activity during 1 hour of video observation of two groups of 10 subjects each (normal controls aged 27-61 years, mean +/- SD = 46.0 +/- 13.6; patients with Graves` orbitopathy aged 33-61 years, mean +/- SD +/- 46.7 +/- 8.9). The spontaneous blink rate of each subject was calculated for the entire period of observation and for 56 five-minute bins. Histograms of the interblink time interval were plotted for each measurement of blink rate. RESULTS. Neither the overall mean blink rate (controls, 19.8 +/- 4.9; Graves`, 17.6 +/- 5.4) nor the interblink time (controls, 5.2 +/- 3.1, Graves`, 7.9 +/- 3.5) differed between the two groups. There was a large variation of both measurements when the 5-minute bins were considered. The interblink time distribution of all subjects was highly positively skewed when the 1-hour period was measured. A significant number of the 5-minute bin distributions deviated from the overall pattern and became symmetric. CONCLUSIONS. The normal blinking process is characterized by highly positively skewed interblink time distributions. This result means that most blinks have a short time interval, and occasionally a small number of blinks have long time intervals. The different patterns of distribution described in the early literature probably represent artifacts because of the small samples analyzed. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;52:3419-3424) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-7060

pH, Calcium Ion Release, and Setting Time of an Experimental Mineral Trioxide Aggregate-based Root Canal Sealer

Introduction: An experimental mineral trioxide aggregate sealer (MTAS) has been developed for use as a root canal sealer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the setting time, pH, and calcium ion release of MTAS compared with white Portland cement (CPB-40; Votorantin Cimentos, Camargo Correa SA, Pedro Leopoldo, MG, Brazil), white MTA Angelus (MTA; Angelus, Londrina, PR, Brazil), and AH Plus (Dentsply DeTrey, Konstanz, Germany). Methods: For the evaluation of setting time, each material was analyzed using Gilmore-type needles. Polyethylene tubes with the materials were immersed in distilled water for the measurement of pH (digital pH meter) and calcium release (atomic absorption spectrophotometry). The evaluations were performed at 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48 hours and 7, 14, and 28 days. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance and the Tukey test at 5% significance level. Results: MTAS showed higher calcium release at all experimental periods, a greater increase in pH up to 48 hours and the longest setting time. Conclusions: MTAS presented favorable properties for its indication as a root canal sealer. (J Endod 2011;37:844-846)

On the heritability of inspection time and its covariance with IQ: A twin study

Using the classical twin design, this study investigates the influence of genetic factors on the large phenotypic variance in inspection time (IT), and whether the well established IT-IQ association can be explained by a common genetic factor. Three hundred ninety pairs of twins (184 monozygotic, MZ; 206 dizygotic, DZ) with a mean age of 16 years participated, and 49 pairs returned approximately 3 months, later for retesting. As in many IT studies, the pi figure stimulus was used and IT was estimated from the cumulative normal ogive. IT ranged from 39.4 to 774.1 ms (159 +/- 110.1 ms) with faster ITs (by an average of 26.9 ms) found in the retest session from which a reliability of .69 was estimated. Full-scale IQ (FIQ) was assessed by the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB) and ranged from 79 to 145 (111 +/- 13). The phenotypic association between IT and FIQ was confirmed (- .35) and bivariate results showed that a common genetic factor accounted for 36% of the variance in IT and 32% of the variance in FIQ. The maximum likelihood estimate of the genetic correlation was - .63. When performance and verbal IQ (PIQ & VIQ) were analysed with IT, a stronger phenotypic and genetic relationship was found between PIQ and IT than with VIQ. A large part of the IT variance (64%) was accounted for by a unique environmental factor. Further genetic factors were needed to explain the remaining variance in IQ with a small component of unique environmental variance present. The separability of a shared genetic factor influencing IT and IQ from the total genetic variance in IQ suggests that IT affects a specific subcomponent of intelligence rather than a generalised efficiency. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.