Optimal control of information epidemics modeled as Maki Thompson rumors

We model the spread of information in a homogeneously mixed population using the Maki Thompson rumor model. We formulate an optimal control problem, from the perspective of single campaigner, to maximize the spread of information when the campaign budget is fixed. Control signals, such as advertising in the mass media, attempt to convert ignorants and stiflers into spreaders. We show the existence of a solution to the optimal control problem when the campaigning incurs non-linear costs under the isoperimetric budget constraint. The solution employs Pontryagin's Minimum Principle and a modified version of forward backward sweep technique for numerical computation to accommodate the isoperimetric budget constraint. The techniques developed in this paper are general and can be applied to similar optimal control problems in other areas. We have allowed the spreading rate of the information epidemic to vary over the campaign duration to model practical situations when the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign changes with time. The shape of the optimal control signal is studied for different model parameters and spreading rate profiles. We have also studied the variation of the optimal campaigning costs with respect to various model parameters. Results indicate that, for some model parameters, significant improvements can be achieved by the optimal strategy compared to the static control strategy. The static strategy respects the same budget constraint as the optimal strategy and has a constant value throughout the campaign horizon. This work finds application in election and social awareness campaigns, product advertising, movie promotion and crowdfunding campaigns. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Humanized antibody neutralizing 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus

The 2009 pandemic H1N1 S-OIV (swine origin influenza A virus) caused noticeable morbidity and mortality worldwide. In addition to vaccine and antiviral drug therapy, the use of influenza virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) for treatment purposes is a viable alternative. We previously reported the isolation of a high affinity, potently neutralizing murine MAb MA2077 against 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. We describe here the humanization of MA2077 and its expression in a mammalian cell line. Six complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) of MA2077 were grafted onto the human germline variable regions; along with six and eight back mutations in the framework of heavy and light chains, respectively, pertaining to the vernier zone and interchain packing residues to promote favorable CDR conformation and facilitate antigen binding. The full length humanized antibody, 2077Hu2, expressed in CHO-K1 cells, showed high affinity to hemagglutinin protein (K-D = 0.75 +/- 0.32 nM) and potent neutralization of pandemic H1N1 virus (IC50 = 0.17 mu g/mL), with marginally higher IC50 as compared to MA2077 (0.08 mu g/mL). In addition, 2077Hu2 also retained the epitope specificity for the ``Sa'' antigenic site on pandemic HA. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of a humanized neutralizing antibody against pandemic H1N1 virus.

Dynamics of history-dependent epidemics in temporal networks

The structural properties of temporal networks often influence the dynamical processes that occur on these networks, e.g., bursty interaction patterns have been shown to slow down epidemics. In this paper, we investigate the effect of link lifetimes on the spread of history-dependent epidemics. We formulate an analytically tractable activity-driven temporal network model that explicitly incorporates link lifetimes. For Markovian link lifetimes, we use mean-field analysis for computing the epidemic threshold, while the effect of non-Markovian link lifetimes is studied using simulations. Furthermore, we also study the effect of negative correlation between the number of links spawned by an individual and the lifetimes of those links. Such negative correlations may arise due to the finite cognitive capacity of the individuals. Our investigations reveal that heavy-tailed link lifetimes slow down the epidemic, while negative correlations can reduce epidemic prevalence. We believe that our results help shed light on the role of link lifetimes in modulating diffusion processes on temporal networks.

First-in-Class Inhibitors of Sulfur Metabolism with Bactericidal Activity against Non-Replicating M-tuberculosis

Development of effective therapies to eradicate persistent, slowly replicating M. tuberculosis (Mtb) represents a significant challenge to controlling the global TB epidemic. To develop such therapies, it is imperative to translate information from metabolome and proteome adaptations of persistent Mtb into the drug discovery screening platforms. To this end, reductive sulfur metabolism is genetically and pharmacologically implicated in survival, pathogenesis, and redox homeostasis of persistent Mtb. Therefore, inhibitors of this pathway are expected to serve as powerful tools in its preclinical and clinical validation as a therapeutic target for eradicating persisters. Here, we establish a first functional HTS platform for identification of APS reductase (APSR) inhibitors, a critical enzyme in the assimilation of sulfate for the biosynthesis of cysteine and other essential sulfur-containing molecules. Our HTS campaign involving 38?350 compounds led to the discovery of three distinct structural classes of APSR inhibitors. A class of bioactive compounds with known pharmacology displayed potent bactericidal activity in wild-type Mtb as well as MDR and XDR clinical isolates. Top compounds showed markedly diminished potency in a conditional Delta APSR mutant, which could be restored by complementation with Mtb APSR. Furthermore, ITC studies on representative compounds provided evidence for direct engagement of the APSR target. Finally, potent APSR inhibitors significantly decreased the cellular levels of key reduced sulfur-containing metabolites and also induced an oxidative shift in mycothiol redox potential of live Mtb, thus providing functional validation of our screening data. In summary, we have identified first-in-class inhibitors of APSR that can serve as molecular probes in unraveling the links between Mtb persistence, antibiotic tolerance, and sulfate assimilation, in addition to their potential therapeutic value.

Campaigning in Heterogeneous Social Networks: Optimal Control of SI Information Epidemics

We study the optimal control problem of maximizing the spread of an information epidemic on a social network. Information propagation is modeled as a susceptible-infected (SI) process, and the campaign budget is fixed. Direct recruitment and word-of-mouth incentives are the two strategies to accelerate information spreading (controls). We allow for multiple controls depending on the degree of the nodes/individuals. The solution optimally allocates the scarce resource over the campaign duration and the degree class groups. We study the impact of the degree distribution of the network on the controls and present results for Erdos-Renyi and scale-free networks. Results show that more resource is allocated to high-degree nodes in the case of scale-free networks, but medium-degree nodes in the case of Erdos-Renyi networks. We study the effects of various model parameters on the optimal strategy and quantify the improvement offered by the optimal strategy over the static and bang-bang control strategies. The effect of the time-varying spreading rate on the controls is explored as the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign may change over time. We show the existence of a solution to the formulated optimal control problem, which has nonlinear isoperimetric constraints, using novel techniques that is general and can be used in other similar optimal control problems. This work may be of interest to political, social awareness, or crowdfunding campaigners and product marketing managers, and with some modifications may be used for mitigating biological epidemics.

The challenge of cancer control in Africa.

While the world is focused on controlling the spread of diseases such as HIV and malaria in the developing world, another approaching epidemic has been largely overlooked. The World Heath Organization predicts that there will be 16 million new cancer cases per year in 2020 and 70% of these will be in the developing world. Many of these cancers are preventable, or treatable when detected early enough. Establishing effective, affordable and workable cancer control plans in African countries is one step in the right direction toward limiting this epidemic.

Neighborhoods attributes as determinants of children's academic achievement

Resumen: Los estudios sobre los efectos del vecindario sobre los logros educativos han confirmado la existencia de estos efectos particularmente en la adolescencia. Una deficiencia común de la investigación empírica hasta la fecha, la falta de información en múltiples contextos, se aborda en este trabajo mediante el uso de encuestas escolares de datos para obtener una mayor comprensión sobre el efecto de la pobreza en los niños que cursan el nivel primario de enseñanza en los EE.UU. Este trabajo propone la utilización de un modelo jerárquico lineal de clasificación cruzada para tomar en cuenta en forma apropiada la estructura anidada de la información ya que los niños pertenecen simultáneamente a los dos grupos, el barrio y la escuela. Los resultados que se presentan, basados en la encuesta ECLS-K, una muestra de más de 20000 niños en aproximadamente 1.000 vecindarios y 1200 escuelas 1200, pone de manifiesto la asociación entre la composición socioeconómica del vecindario y los resultados académicos de los estudiantes. Este estudio proporciona evidencia a favor de las teorías de la socialización y epidémica. La presencia de adultos con buen nivel educativo en el vecindario así como la mediana de ingresos tienen impacto positivo en el logro del estudiante. De la misma forma, elevados niveles de pobreza tienen una influencia significativa, pero negativa en los resultados académicos. Sin embargo, el impacto se produce cuando se supera el umbral de 30% de hogares pobres en el vecindario. Los resultados agregados son invariantes a distintas especificaciones en términos de variables, esto no sucede cuando se analizan subgrupos clasificados según su origen étnico, género y estatus socio-económico.

Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effective reproduction number reflecting the control effect. Noticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.

Celiac disease in the Mediterranean area

Background: The World Gastroenterology Organization recommends developing national guidelines for the diagnosis of Celiac Disease (CD): hence a profile of the diagnosis of CD in each country is required. We aim to describe a cross-sectional picture of the clinical features and diagnostic facilities in 16 countries of the Mediterranean basin. Since a new ESPGHAN diagnostic protocol was recently published, our secondary aim is to estimate how many cases in the same area could be identified without a small intestinal biopsy. Methods: By a stratified cross-sectional retrospective study design, we examined clinical, histological and laboratory data from 749 consecutive unselected CD children diagnosed by national referral centers. Results: The vast majority of cases were diagnosed before the age of 10 (median: 5 years), affected by diarrhea, weight loss and food refusal, as expected. Only 59 cases (7.8%) did not suffer of major complaints. Tissue transglutaminase (tTG) assay was available, but one-third of centers reported financial constraints in the regular purchase of the assay kits. 252 cases (33.6%) showed tTG values over 10 times the local normal limit. Endomysial antibodies and HLA typing were routinely available in only half of the centers. CD was mainly diagnosed from small intestinal biopsy, available in all centers. Based on these data, only 154/749 cases (20.5%) would have qualified for a diagnosis of CD without a small intestinal biopsy, according to the new ESPGHAN protocol. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study of CD in the Mediterranean referral centers offers a puzzling picture of the capacities to deal with the emerging epidemic of CD in the area, giving a substantive support to the World Gastroenterology Organization guidelines.

Why are we fat? Discussions on the socioeconomic dimensions and responses to obesity

This paper draws together contributions to a scientific table discussion on obesity at the European Science Open Forum 2008 which took place in Barcelona, Spain. Socioeconomic dimensions of global obesity, including those factors promoting it, those surrounding the social perceptions of obesity and those related to integral public health solutions, are discussed. It argues that although scientific accounts of obesity point to large-scale changes in dietary and physical environments, media representations of obesity, which context public policy, pre-eminently follow individualistic models of explanation. While the debate at the forum brought together a diversity of views, all the contributors agreed that this was a global issue requiring an equally global response. Furthermore, an integrated ecological model of obesity proposes that to be effective, policy will need to address not only human health but also planetary health, and that therefore, public health and environmental policies coincide.

Switch Region for Pathogenic Structural Change in Conformational Disease and Its Prediction

Many diseases are believed to be related to abnormal protein folding. In the first step of such pathogenic structural changes, misfolding occurs in regions important for the stability of the native structure. This destabilizes the normal protein conformation, while exposing the previously hidden aggregation-prone regions, leading to subsequent errors in the folding pathway. Sites involved in this first stage can be deemed switch regions of the protein, and can represent perfect binding targets for drugs to block the abnormal folding pathway and prevent pathogenic conformational changes. In this study, a prediction algorithm for the switch regions responsible for the start of pathogenic structural changes is introduced. With an accuracy of 94%, this algorithm can successfully find short segments covering sites significant in triggering conformational diseases (CDs) and is the first that can predict switch regions for various CDs. To illustrate its effectiveness in dealing with urgent public health problems, the reason of the increased pathogenicity of H5N1 influenza virus is analyzed; the mechanisms of the pandemic swine-origin 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus in overcoming species barriers and in infecting large number of potential patients are also suggested. It is shown that the algorithm is a potential tool useful in the study of the pathology of CDs because: (1) it can identify the origin of pathogenic structural conversion with high sensitivity and specificity, and (2) it provides an ideal target for clinical treatment.

La respuesta del Personal Sanitario de España durante las campañas de vacunación antigripal

La infección vírica causada por el virus gripal o influenza representa una importante carga de enfermedad a nivel mundial y es responsable de una elevada morbilidad y mortalidad especialmente en ciertos grupos de riesgo. La vacunación constituye un elemento fundamental y es la principal medida preventiva para hacer frente a la gripe y sus complicaciones. El personal sanitario puede actuar como agente transmisor de la infección nosocomial, por este motivo se encuentra incluido en los grupos de riesgo en los que la vacunación frente a la gripe está indicada anualmente siempre y cuando no presente contraindicaciones. Dada su relevancia, se realizó una revisión bibliográfica, en las principales bases de datos electrónicas, para conocer la cobertura de vacunación antigripal (estacional y pandémica) del personal sanitario de España así como analizar las estrategias adoptadas con el fin de aumentar la cobertura de vacunación. La cobertura de vacunación de los profesionales sanitarios de España es baja, siendo menor para la gripe A (H1N1) que para la gripe estacional. Entre el colectivo de profesionales, los médicos tienen mayor cobertura seguido del personal de enfermería. El principal motivo para vacunarse es la autoprotección así como evitar el contagio de sus pacientes, y para no vacunarse dudar sobre la seguridad de la vacuna. La falta de información acerca de estrategias para aumentar la cobertura antigripal y la baja cobertura de este colectivo hacen necesario el desarrollo de más estudios para poder determinar el diseño e intervenciones de las campañas de vacunación antigripal.

Assessment of access to health services and vulnerabilities of female fish traders in the Kafue Flats, Zambia: analysis report

Under the regional programme Fisheries and HIV/AIDS in Africa: Investing in Sustainable Solutions, the WorldFish Center conducted this study on access to health services and vulnerabilities of female fish traders in the Kafue Flats floodplains in Zambia. This report outlines and analyses the particular vulnerabilities of female fish traders in the Kafue Flats fishery and formulates recommendations to facilitate stakeholder uptake of strategic responses to tackle the drivers of the epidemic in fishing communities and improve the livelihoods of fisher folk and fish traders in the Kafue Flats and other fisheries in Zambia. (pdf contains 55 pages)

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Computational design of self-assembling proteins and protein-DNA nanowires

Computational protein design (CPD) is a burgeoning field that uses a physical-chemical or knowledge-based scoring function to create protein variants with new or improved properties. This exciting approach has recently been used to generate proteins with entirely new functions, ones that are not observed in naturally occurring proteins. For example, several enzymes were designed to catalyze reactions that are not in the repertoire of any known natural enzyme. In these designs, novel catalytic activity was built de novo (from scratch) into a previously inert protein scaffold. In addition to de novo enzyme design, the computational design of protein-protein interactions can also be used to create novel functionality, such as neutralization of influenza. Our goal here was to design a protein that can self-assemble with DNA into nanowires. We used computational tools to homodimerize a transcription factor that binds a specific sequence of double-stranded DNA. We arranged the protein-protein and protein-DNA binding sites so that the self-assembly could occur in a linear fashion to generate nanowires. Upon mixing our designed protein homodimer with the double-stranded DNA, the molecules immediately self-assembled into nanowires. This nanowire topology was confirmed using atomic force microscopy. Co-crystal structure showed that the nanowire is assembled via the desired interactions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of a protein-DNA self-assembly that does not rely on covalent interactions. We anticipate that this new material will stimulate further interest in the development of advanced biomaterials.