Is it possible to utilize VIX for a profitable trading strategy of S&P 500 Index?

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX® and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index often referred as the fear index, measures how much it costs for investor to protect his/her S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has been a successful timing coordinator and it has given incremental information about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed. Correctly utilized VIX information gives a considerable advantage in timing market actions. In this paper we test how VIX works as a leading indicator of broad stock market index such as S&P 500 (SPX). The purpose of this paper is to find a working way to interpret VIX. The various tests are made on time series data ranging from the year 1990 to the year 2010. The 10-day simple moving average strategy gave significant profits from the whole time when VIX data is available. Strategy was able to utilize the increases of SPX in example portfolio value and was able to step aside when SPX was declining. At the times when portfolio was aside of S it was on safety fund like on treasury bills getting an annual yield of 3 percent. On the other side just a static number’s of VIX did not work as indicators in a profit making way.

Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) na análise da dinâmica da vegetação da reserva biológica de Sooretama, ES

Técnicas de análises de séries temporais são utilizadas para caracterizar o comportamento de fenômenos naturais no domínio do tempo. Neste artigo, segundo a metodologia proposta por Box et al. (1994), 125 observações do Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) foram analisadas. Os valores modelados correspondem às variações temporais ocorridas no dossel florestal da reserva biológica de Sooretama, localizada ao Norte do Estado do Espírito Santo, no Município de Linhares. Os resultados indicaram que a metodologia foi adequada. Os resíduos do modelo ajustado são não correlacionados com distribuição normal, média zero e variância s². Com o menor valor do Critério de Informação de Akaike (AIC) -570,51, o modelo ajustado foi o Sazonal Auto-Regressivo Integrado de Médias Móveis (1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Nujalan talkoopolkka : Harvest polka at Nujula.

Kansansävelmä, Uusimaa: Tuusula.

ESTIMATION OF CORK PRODUCTION USINGAERIAL IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT Inventory and prediction of cork harvest over time and space is important to forest managers who must plan and organize harvest logistics (transport, storage, etc.). Common field inventory methods including the stem density, diameter and height structure are costly and generally point (plot) based. Furthermore, the irregular horizontal structure of cork oak stands makes it difficult, if not impossible, to interpolate between points. We propose a new method to estimate cork production using digital multispectral aerial imagery. We study the spectral response of individual trees in visible and near infrared spectra and then correlate that response with cork production prior to harvest. We use ground measurements of individual trees production to evaluate the model’s predictive capacity. We propose 14 candidate variables to predict cork production based on crown size in combination with different NDVI index derivates. We use Akaike Information Criteria to choose the best among them. The best model is composed of combinations of different NDVI derivates that include red, green, and blue channels. The proposed model is 15% more accurate than a model that includes only a crown projection without any spectral information.

Performance during post-harvest storage of banana cv. 'prata', 'maçã' and 'nanica' exposed to physical and chemical treatments

Banana is the most consumed fruit in the world and Brazil is the second largest producer. Despite its global position, Brazil has an average of 40% losses during the post-harvest period. So, this experiment aimed at evaluating the efficiency of post-harvest treatments to improve the storage of banana cultivars cv. 'Prata', 'Maçã' and 'Nanica'. The fruits were acquired at CEASA with green peel, and were submitted to six different treatments: T- immersion in drinking water for 3 minutes (control), H3 - hot water (50 °C for 3 minutes), H8 - hot water (50 °C for 8 minutes), HP - immersion in hypochlorite 0.2% for 3 minutes, OS - immersion in soybean oil 10% for 3 minutes, and OM - immersion in mineral oil 10% for 3 minutes. The fruits were stored at room temperature at about 21 °C for 14 days and evaluated in three periods (1, 7 and 14 days) comparing peel color, flesh/peel ratio, titratable acidity (TA), soluble solids (SS), SS/TA ratio, and pH. The fruits of cv. 'Prata' and 'Maçã' submitted to the treatments H3, H8 and HP ripened at the same time as the control for peel color, which showed increased soluble solids, flesh/peel ratio, acidity and a decrease in pH. On the other hand, the cv. 'Nanica' did not respond significantly different when compared to the applied treatments and the control. The fruits treated with OM and OS were kept green for a longer time for the cultivars 'Prata' and 'Nanica', but there were some changes on peel color due dark spots in 'Prata' banana and a softening aspect in 'Nanica', indicating some level of toxicity of these treatments. Fruits of the 'Maçã' cultivar continued green with the application of mineral oil, without toxicity symptoms. In conclusion, the treatments applied did not show any advantage for storage of these fruits.

Operational performance of the mechanized and semi-mechanized potato harvest

Potato is an important crop plant throughout the world. Harvesting is a fundamental step in its production system. Maybe, it is the most complex and expensive operation. Thus, the objective of this work was to compare the cost of the mechanized and semi-mechanized harvest, the operational capacity and the production losses during the potato harvest process. The work was accomplished in a commercial farming, cultivated under pivot system, in the municipal district of Perdizes - MG, Brazil. A completely randomized design with two treatments was used: mechanized and semi-mechanized harvest. The mechanized harvest used a self-propelled harvester. In the semi-automated harvest, a digger mounted on tractor was used and the potato was manually harvested. It was concluded that the cost of mechanized harvest was 49.03% lower than the cost of semi-mechanized harvest. On average, the harvester had a work for 23 workers in manual harvest. Mechanized harvest showed losses of 2.35% of potato yield, while the semi-mechanized harvest showed losses of 6.32%.

Use of data mining and spectral profiles to differentiate condition after harvest of coffee plants

This study aimed at identifying different conditions of coffee plants after harvesting period, using data mining and spectral behavior profiles from Hyperion/EO1 sensor. The Hyperion image, with spatial resolution of 30 m, was acquired in August 28th, 2008, at the end of the coffee harvest season in the studied area. For pre-processing imaging, atmospheric and signal/noise effect corrections were carried out using Flaash and MNF (Minimum Noise Fraction Transform) algorithms, respectively. Spectral behavior profiles (38) of different coffee varieties were generated from 150 Hyperion bands. The spectral behavior profiles were analyzed by Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm considering 2; 3; 4 and 5 clusters. T-test with 5% of significance was used to verify the similarity among the wavelength cluster means. The results demonstrated that it is possible to separate five different clusters, which were comprised by different coffee crop conditions making possible to improve future intervention actions.

Spatial variability of yield and other parameters associated with pear trees

In the last few years, precision agriculture has become commonly used with many crops, particularly cereals, and there is also interest in precision horticulture. Pear is a seasonal fruit and well appreciated by Brazilian people, although it is mostly imported. Brazilian farmers are nowadays trying to increase pear production. Thus, this research aimed at mapping the yield of pear trees in order to study the spatial variability of yield as well as its comparison with spatial variability of soil and plant attributes. The experimental field had 146 pear trees, variety 'Pêra d'água', distributed on a 1.24 ha. Four harvests were performed according to the fruit ripening and from each tree; only the ripe fruits were harvested. In each harvest, all the fruits were weighed and the total yield was obtained based on the sum of each harvest. The soil attributes analyzed were P, K, Ca, Mg, pH in CaCl2, C, Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn and base saturation, and the plant attributes were fruit length, diameter and yield. Yield had low correlation with soil and plant attributes. An index of spatial variability was suggested in this study and helped in classifying levels of spatial dependence of the various soil and plant attributes: very low (fruit length); low (P, fruit diameter), medium (Mg, pH, Cu, Zn, Fe), high (Ca, K, base saturation and yield), and very high (Mn and C).

Spatial variability of air dry bulb temperature and black globe humidity index in a broiler house during the heating phase

The air dry-bulb temperature (t db),as well as the black globe humidity index (BGHI), exert great influence on the development of broiler chickens during their heating phase. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the structure and the magnitude of the t db and BGHI spatial variability, using geostatistics tools such as semivariogram analysis and also producing kriging maps. The experiment was conducted in the west mesoregion of the states of Minas Gerais in 2010, in a commercial broiler house with heating system consisting of two furnaces that heat the air indirectly, in the firsts 14 days of the birds' life. The data were registered at intervals of five minutes in the period from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. The variables were evaluated by variograms fitted by residual maximum likelihood (REML) testing the Spherical and Exponential models. Kriging maps were generated based on the best model used to fit the variogram. It was possible to characterize the variability of the t db and BGHI, which allowed observing the spatial dependence by using geostatistics techniques. In addition, the use of geostatistics and distribution maps made possible to identify problems in the heating system in regions inside the broiler house that may harm the development of chicks.

Identification of croplands of winter cereals in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, through unsupervised classification of normalized difference vegetation index images

This study aimed to propose methods to identify croplands cultivated with winter cereals in the northern region of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Thus, temporal profiles of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from MODIS sensor, from April to December of the 2000 to 2008, were analyzed. Firstly, crop masks were elaborated by subtracting the minimum NDVI image (April to May) from the maximum NDVI image (June to October). Then, an unsupervised classification of NDVI images was carried out (Isodata), considering the crop mask areas. According to the results, crop masks allowed the identification of pixels with greatest green biomass variation. This variation might be associated or not with winter cereals areas established to grain production. The unsupervised classification generated classes in which NDVI temporal profiles were associated with water bodies, pastures, winter cereals for grain production and for soil cover. Temporal NDVI profiles of the class winter cereals for grain production were in agree with crop patterns in the region (developmental stage, management standard and sowing dates). Therefore, unsupervised classification based on crop masks allows distinguishing and monitoring winter cereal crops, which were similar in terms of morphology and phenology.

Mechanical damage during harvest and loading affect orange postharvest quality

Brazil is the world’s largest orange producer; however, part of this production is lost during postharvest. This loss can be minimized by controlling incidence of physical damage throughout the harvest and loading operations. Impacts can negatively modify quantitative and qualitative fruits aspects. The main goal of this study was to measure the impact magnitude in two types of harvest (manual and detachment) and during all steps from picking into bags until loading for transport to the processing industry and additionally evaluating, in laboratory, the physico-chemical quality of the fruit subjected to various impacts, similar to those found in the field. In order to evaluate the impact magnitude, an instrumented sphere was used (760 mm, Techmark, Inc, USA). The following physico-chemical parameters were evaluated during 6-days of storage: weight loss, soluble solids contents, titratable acidity, ascorbic acid content, pH, firmness and peel color. The greatest impacts were observed during harvest, during the detachment practice, and when loading and unloading from bulk storage, with average acceleration values between 249.5 and 531.52G. The impact incidence in oranges were responsible for reducing the soluble solids, titratable acidity, ascorbic acid and weight by to 5.5%; 8.7%; 4.6% and 0.5%, respectively, compared to the control. Impacts during harvest and the various pre-industry manipulation steps must be controlled as they interfere in postharvest quality and physiology of ‘Valência’ oranges.

Natural shading and productivity index of broiler chickens

The appropriate use of natural resources in the design of broiler houses provides a reduction in farming operating costs and optimization of production conditions. Therefore, the natural shading around the broiler house can be an alternative for improving internal conditions of comfort. This study verified the efficiency of natural shading in the broiler productivity index (PI) in East-West oriented commercial housings. The PI of 32 commercial broiler houses in five flocks divided throughout a year was compared. The sheds had the same management, density and the same structural features, except from tree shading: on the North face; on the South face; on both faces and without shading. It was observed that broiler house in East-West direction with shading on the South face had higher productivity index compared to houses with shading only on the North face or on both sides, between autumn and spring. For the summer period, sheds without shading showed productivity indexes superior to others.

Designing and manufacturing of a soybean harvest residue picker

ABSTRACT Soy harvest matches seasons with shortage of dry matter supply for ruminant feeding in most Brazilian soy-growing areas. Agricultural machinery-producing companies must have market perception, observing new opportunities and developing equipment to meet costumers’ needs. This paper aims to design, build, and test a device to collect soybean crop residues from the combine cleaning mechanism, consisting mainly of vegetable straw (chaff), and the other plant parts (stems) remain being deposited onto the ground. For equipment designing, we made use of the architectural design methodology proposed in the reference model for the agricultural machinery development process. The equipment was designed and built following the proposed methodology, then installed and put into operation in a John Deere 1165 combine. After initial testing and few adjustments, the device showed satisfactory chaff-collecting performance. The equipment consists of a screw conveyor assembled transversely to the combine and a centrifugal fan assembled on the side. The collected chaff is dumped into a trailer towed by tractor.