Detecting Precipitation Climate Changes: An Approach Based on a Stochastic Daily Precipitation Model

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M10.

About the Oral Health of Bulgarian Population over 20 Years Old

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10, 62J12.

Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Logistic Regression in Modelling Data for CVC - Related Infection

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J12, 62P10.

On the Approximation of the Generalized Cut Function of Degree p+1 By Smooth Sigmoid Functions

We introduce a modification of the familiar cut function by replacing the linear part in its definition by a polynomial of degree p + 1 obtaining thus a sigmoid function called generalized cut function of degree p + 1 (GCFP). We then study the uniform approximation of the (GCFP) by smooth sigmoid functions such as the logistic and the shifted logistic functions. The limiting case of the interval-valued Heaviside step function is also discussed which imposes the use of Hausdorff metric. Numerical examples are presented using CAS MATHEMATICA.

On Generalized Models and Singular Products of Distributions in Colombeau Algebra G(R)

MSC 2010: 46F30, 46F10

Contesting gender stereotypes stimulates generalized fairness in the selection of leaders

Exposure to counter-stereotypic gender role models (e.g., a woman engineer) has been shown to successfully reduce the application of biased gender stereotypes. We tested the hypothesis that such efforts may more generally lessen the application of stereotypic knowledge in other (non-gendered) domains. Specifically, based on the notion that counter-stereotypes can stimulate a lesser reliance on heuristic thinking, we predicted that contesting gender stereotypes would eliminate a more general group prototypicality bias in the selection of leaders. Three studies supported this hypothesis. After exposing participants to a counter-stereotypic gender role model, group prototypicality no longer predicted leadership evaluation and selection. We discuss the implications of these findings for groups and organizations seeking to capitalize on the benefits of an increasingly diverse workforce.

Bifurcation and stability in a low-dimensional model for multiple-frequency mode-locked lasers

Recent theoretical investigations have demonstrated that the stability of mode-locked solutions of multiple frequency channels depends on the degree of inhomogeneity in gain saturation. In this article, these results are generalized to determine conditions on each of the system parameters necessary for both the stability and the existence of mode-locked pulse solutions for an arbitrary number of frequency channels. In particular, we find that the parameters governing saturable intensity discrimination and gain inhomogeneity in the laser cavity also determine the position of bifurcations of solution types. These bifurcations are completely characterized in terms of these parameters. In addition to influencing the stability of mode-locked solutions, we determine a balance between cubic gain and quintic loss, which is necessary for the existence of solutions as well. Furthermore, we determine the critical degree of inhomogeneous gain broadening required to support pulses in multiple-frequency channels. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Medical conditions and depressive, anxiety, and somatic symptoms in older adults with and without generalized anxiety disorder

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine medical illness and anxiety, depressive, and somatic symptoms in older medical patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). METHOD: A case-control study was designed and conducted in the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) Geriatrics Clinics. A total of fifty-four older medical patients with GAD and 54 matched controls participated. MEASUREMENTS: The measurements used for this study include: Brief Symptom Inventory-18, Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, and the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule. RESULTS: Older medical patients with GAD reported higher levels of somatic symptoms, anxiety, and depression than other older adults, as well as higher rates of diabetes and gastrointestinal conditions. In a multivariate model that included somatic symptoms, medical conditions, and depressive and anxiety symptoms, anxiety symptoms were the only significant predictors of GAD. CONCLUSION: These results suggest first, that older medical patients with GAD do not primarily express distress as somatic symptoms; second, that anxiety symptoms in geriatric patients should not be discounted as a byproduct of medical illness or depression; and third, that older adults with diabetes and gastrointestinal conditions may benefit from screening for anxiety.

Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction - A Comparative Study on the Basis of the First Hungarian Bankruptcy Model

The article attempts to answer the question whether or not the latest bankruptcy prediction techniques are more reliable than traditional mathematical–statistical ones in Hungary. Simulation experiments carried out on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy prediction model clearly prove that bankruptcy models built using artificial neural networks have higher classification accuracy than models created in the 1990s based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The article presents the main results, analyses the reasons for the differences and presents constructive proposals concerning the further development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction.

A kvázi- és általánosított hiperbolikus diszkontálás hosszú távon (Quasi- and Generalized Hyperbolic Discounting in Long Term)

Az intertemporális döntések fontos szerepet játszanak a közgazdasági modellezésben, és azt írják le, hogy milyen átváltást alkalmazunk két különböző időpont között. A közgazdasági modellezésben az exponenciális diszkontálás a legelterjedtebb, annak ellenére, hogy az empirikus vizsgálatok alapján gyenge a magyarázó ereje. A gazdaságpszichológiában elterjedt általánosított hiperbolikus diszkontálás viszont nagyon nehezen alkalmazható közgazdasági modellezési célra. Így tudott gyorsan elterjedni a kvázi-hiperbolikus diszkontálási modell, amelyik úgy ragadja meg a főbb pszichológiai jelenségeket, hogy kezelhető marad a modellezés során. A cikkben azt állítjuk, hogy hibás az a megközelítés, hogy hosszú távú döntések esetén, főleg sorozatok esetén helyettesíthető a két hiperbolikus diszkontálás egymással. Így a hosszú távú kérdéseknél érdemes felülvizsgálni a kvázi-hiperbolikus diszkontálással kapott eredményeket, ha azok az általánosított hiperbolikus diszkontálási modellel való helyettesíthetőséget feltételezték. ____ Intertemporal choice is one of the crucial questions in economic modeling and it describes decisions which require trade-offs among outcomes occurring in different points in time. In economic modeling the exponential discounting is the most well known, however it has weak validity in empirical studies. Although according to psychologists generalized hyperbolic discounting has the strongest descriptive validity it is very complex and hard to use in economic models. In response to this challenge quasi-hyperbolic discounting was proposed. It has the most important properties of generalized hyperbolic discounting while tractability remains in analytical modeling. Therefore it is common to substitute generalized hyperbolic discounting with quasi-hyperbolic discounting. This paper argues that the substitution of these two models leads to different conclusions in long term decisions especially in the case of series; hence all the models that use quasi-hyperbolic discounting for long term decisions should be revised if they states that generalized hyperbolic discounting model would have the same conclusion.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

Contemporary aspects of dividends: Before and during the financial crisis

The number of dividend paying firms has been on the decline since the popularity of stock repurchases in the 1980s, and the recent financial crisis has brought about a wave of dividend reductions and omissions. This dissertation examined the U.S. firms and American Depository Receipts that are listed on the U.S. equity exchanges according to their dividend paying history in the previous twelve quarters. While accounting for the state of the economy, the firm’s size, profitability, earned equity, and growth opportunities, it determines whether or not the firm will pay a dividend in the next quarter. It also examined the likelihood of a dividend change. Further, returns of firms were examined according to their dividend paying history and the state of the economy using the Fama-French three-factor model. Using forward, backward, and step-wise selection logistic regressions, the results show that firms with a history of regular and uninterrupted dividend payments are likely to continue to pay dividends, while firms that do not have a history of regular dividend payments are not likely to begin to pay dividends or continue to do so. The results of a set of generalized polytomous logistic regressions imply that dividend paying firms are more likely to reduce dividend payments during economic expansions, as opposed to recessions. Also the analysis of returns using the Fama-French three factor model reveals that dividend paying firms are earning significant abnormal positive returns. As a special case, a similar analysis of dividend payment and dividend change was applied to American Depository Receipts that trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX exchanges and are issued by the Bank of New York Mellon. Returns of American Depository Receipts were examined using the Fama-French two-factor model for international firms. The results of the generalized polytomous logistic regression analyses indicate that dividend paying status and economic conditions are also important for dividend level change of American Depository Receipts, and Fama-French two-factor regressions alone do not adequately explain returns for these securities.

A generic model of execution for synthesizing domain-specific models

Software engineering researchers are challenged to provide increasingly more powerful levels of abstractions to address the rising complexity inherent in software solutions. One new development paradigm that places models as abstraction at the forefront of the development process is Model-Driven Software Development (MDSD). MDSD considers models as first class artifacts, extending the capability for engineers to use concepts from the problem domain of discourse to specify apropos solutions. A key component in MDSD is domain-specific modeling languages (DSMLs) which are languages with focused expressiveness, targeting a specific taxonomy of problems. The de facto approach used is to first transform DSML models to an intermediate artifact in a HLL e.g., Java or C++, then execute that resulting code.^ Our research group has developed a class of DSMLs, referred to as interpreted DSMLs (i-DSMLs), where models are directly interpreted by a specialized execution engine with semantics based on model changes at runtime. This execution engine uses a layered architecture and is referred to as a domain-specific virtual machine (DSVM). As the domain-specific model being executed descends the layers of the DSVM the semantic gap between the user-defined model and the services being provided by the underlying infrastructure is closed. The focus of this research is the synthesis engine, the layer in the DSVM which transforms i-DSML models into executable scripts for the next lower layer to process.^ The appeal of an i-DSML is constrained as it possesses unique semantics contained within the DSVM. Existing DSVMs for i-DSMLs exhibit tight coupling between the implicit model of execution and the semantics of the domain, making it difficult to develop DSVMs for new i-DSMLs without a significant investment in resources.^ At the onset of this research only one i-DSML had been created for the user- centric communication domain using the aforementioned approach. This i-DSML is the Communication Modeling Language (CML) and its DSVM is the Communication Virtual machine (CVM). A major problem with the CVM's synthesis engine is that the domain-specific knowledge (DSK) and the model of execution (MoE) are tightly interwoven consequently subsequent DSVMs would need to be developed from inception with no reuse of expertise.^ This dissertation investigates how to decouple the DSK from the MoE and subsequently producing a generic model of execution (GMoE) from the remaining application logic. This GMoE can be reused to instantiate synthesis engines for DSVMs in other domains. The generalized approach to developing the model synthesis component of i-DSML interpreters utilizes a reusable framework loosely coupled to DSK as swappable framework extensions.^ This approach involves first creating an i-DSML and its DSVM for a second do- main, demand-side smartgrid, or microgrid energy management, and designing the synthesis engine so that the DSK and MoE are easily decoupled. To validate the utility of the approach, the SEs are instantiated using the GMoE and DSKs of the two aforementioned domains and an empirical study to support our claim of reduced developmental effort is performed.^

Generalized atoms in molecules approach (GAIM approach)

This thesis involves two parts. The first is a new-proposed theoretical approach called generalized atoms in molecules (GAIM). The second is a computational study on the deamination reaction of adenine with OH⁻/nH₂O (n=0, 1, 2, 3) and 3H₂O. The GAIM approach aims to solve the energy of each atom variationally in the first step and then to build the energy of a molecule from each atom. Thus the energy of a diatomic molecule (A-B) is formulated as a sum of its atomic energies, EA and EB. Each of these atomic energies is expressed as, EA = Hᴬ + Vₑₑᴬᴬ + 1/2Vₑₑᴬ<>ᴮ EB = Hᴮ + Vₑₑᴮᴮ + 1/2Vₑₑᴬ<>ᴮ where; Hᴬ and Hᴮ are the kinetic and nuclear attraction energy of electrons of atoms A and B, respectively; Vₑₑᴬᴬ and Vₑₑᴮᴮ are the interaction energy between the electrons on atoms A and B, respectively; and Vₑₑᴬ<>ᴮ is the interaction energy between the electrons of atom A with the electrons of atom B. The energy of the molecule is then minimized subject to the following constraint, |ρA(r)dr + |ρB(r)dr = N where ρA(r) and ρB(r) are the electron densities of atoms A and B, respectively, and N is the number of electrons. The initial testing of the performance of GAIM was done through calculating dissociation curves for H₂, LiH, Li₂, BH, HF, HCl, N₂, F₂, and Cl₂. The numerical results show that GAIM performs very well with H₂, LiH, Li₂, BH, HF, and HCl. GAIM shows convergence problems with N₂, F₂, and Cl₂ due to difficulties in reordering the degenerate atomic orbitals Pₓ, Py, and Pz in N, F, and Cl atoms. Further work for the development of GAIM is required. Deamination of adenine results in one of several forms of premutagenic lesions occurring in DNA. In this thesis, mechanisms for the deamination reaction of adenine with OH⁻/nH₂O, (n = 0, 1, 2, 3) and 3H₂O were investigated. HF/6-31G(d), B3LYP/6-31G(d), MP2/6-31G(d), and B3LYP/6-31+G(d) levels of theory were employed to optimize all the geometries. Energies were calculated at the G3MP2B3 and CBS-QB3 levels of theory. The effect of solvent (water) was computed using the polarizable continuum model (PCM). Intrinsic reaction coordinate (IRC) calculations were performed for all transition states. Five pathways were investigated for the deamination reaction of adenine with OH⁻/nH₂O and 3H₂O. The first four pathways (A-D) begin with by deprotonation at the amino group of adenine by OH⁻, while pathway E is initiated by tautomerization of adenine. For all pathways, the next two steps involve the formation of a tetrahedral intermediate followed by dissociation to yield products via a 1,3-hydrogen shift. Deamination with a single OH⁻ has a high activation barrier (190 kJ mol⁻¹ using G3MP2B3 level) for the rate-determining step. Addition of one water molecule reduces this barrier by 68 kJ mol⁻¹ calculated at G3MP2B3 level. Adding more water molecules decreases the overall activation energy of the reaction, but the effect becomes smaller with each additional water molecule. The most plausible mechanism is pathway E, the deamination reaction of adenine with 3H₂O, which has an overall G3MP2B3 activation energy of 139 and 137 kJ mol⁻¹ in the gas phase and PCM, respectively. This barrier is lower than that for the deamination with OH⁻/3H₂O by 6 and 2 kJ mol⁻¹ in the gas phase and PCM, respectively.