1000 resultados para Expected shortfall (ES)


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Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

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Es va avaluar el contingut del sòl en Mn, Cu, Zn, Ni i Cd fent una extracció amb DTPA, segons el mètode de Lindsay i Norvell (1969). Les mostres analitzades procedien de parcel·les agrícoles d'arreu de Catalunya, conservades al Banc de Mostres de Sòls del Mapa de Sòls de Catalunya del DARP. Els resultats es van agrupar per sistemes agrícoles en funció de l'origen de les mostres, ja que dins de cada un es pot assumir una reducció important en l'interval de variació de diferents factors. Es va realitzar una comparació estadística entre els valors mitjans dels diferents sistemes agrícoles, entre els valors mitjans de les dues profunditats de sòl considerades, i una interpretació agronòmica. Els resultats van indicar que els sòls procedents d'horticultura intensiva del Maresme són els que tenen continguts disponibles més elevats dels metalls considerats. D'altra banda, es fa palès que els valors estan condicionats tant pel material originari del sòl com per l'acció antròpica. Per al Cu i el Zn en les mostres de sòls del Maresme els continguts trobats estan molt per sobre dels mínims considerats com a agronòmicament satisfactoris.

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Since 2001 several outbreaks of a new disease associated with Border disease virus (BDV) infection have caused important declines in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) populations in the Pyrenees. The goal of this study was to analyze the post-outbreak BDV epidemiology in the first two areas affected by disease with the aim to establish if the infection has become endemic. We also investigated if BDV infected wild and domestic ruminants sharing habitat with chamois. Unexpectedly, we found different epidemiological scenarios in each population. Since the disease outbreaks, some chamois populations recuperated quickly, while others did not recover as expected. In chamois from the first areas, prevalence was high (73.47%) and constant throughout the whole study period and did not differ between chamois born before and after the BDV outbreak; in all, BDV was detected by RT-PCR in six chamois. In the other areas, prevalence was lower (52.79%) and decreased during the study period; as well, prevalence was significantly lower in chamois born after the disease outbreak. No BDV were detected in this population. A comparative virus neutralisation test performed with four BDV strains and one Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) strain showed that all the chamois had BDV-specific antibodies. Pestivirus antibodies were detected in all the rest of analyzed species, with low prevalence values in wild ruminants and moderate values in domestic ruminants. No viruses were detected in these species. These results confirm the hypothesis that outbreaks of BDV infection only affect the Pyrenean chamois, although other wild ruminants can occasionally be infected. In conclusion, two different scenarios have appeared since the first border disease outbreaks in Pyrenean chamois: on the one hand frequent BDV circulation with possible negative impact on population dynamics in some areas and on the other, lack of virus circulation and quick recovery of the chamois population.

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Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar os efeitos de diferentes intensidades de poda de frutificação realizadas em diferentes épocas do ano sobre a fenologia e a produção da goiabeira 'Paluma', em Pinheiros-ES. As plantas foram submetidas a três intensidades de poda de frutificação (curta, média e longa), em quatro diferentes épocas (25-11-2005, 21-12-2005, 27-01-2006 e 23-02-2006). O ciclo da goiabeira 'Paluma', entre a poda até o início da colheita dos frutos, variou de 189 dias (podas em novembro e dezembro) a 203 dias (poda em fevereiro). Independentemente da época de poda, as plantas submetidas à poda longa apresentaram maior emissão de brotos novos e maior número de ramos estabelecidos. As plantas submetidas à poda curta apresentaram menores números de brotos emitidos e de ramos estabelecidos, bem como menor índice de pegamento de frutos, menor número de frutos por planta e, conseqüentemente, menor produção; entretanto produziram frutos de maior peso médio em relação às plantas submetidas à poda longa. A maior produção e o maior número de frutos colhidos por planta ocorreram nas plantas podadas em fevereiro. A época e a intensidade da poda de frutificação afetam a brotação e a produção da goiabeira 'Paluma'.

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En època de crisi com la que estem vivint pot semblar estrany plantejar-se la possibilitat emprenedora en treball social com a activitat per compte propi. Aquí es reflexiona sobre l’oportunitat de fer-ho i s’analitza què podem entendre en l’actualitat per emprendre i quines característiques comporta. També es valoren les dificultats que la pròpia disciplina presenta quan algú, eventualment, es pugui plantejar la via emprenedora i les coses que cal tenir en compte per sortejar-les. Finalment, es presenten algunes experiències d’emprenedoria des del treball social o en relació amb aquest i se n’aventuren algunes possibilitats que es podrien explorar en un futur.

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L'objectiu d'aquest article és defensar la responsabilitat del component lèxic pel que fa a la presència (o l'absència) del clític en la construcció anticausativa. Es presenten proves que justifiquen que les argumentacions sobre aquest fenomen des de la semàntica o l'estructura eventual, que són les més prolíferes en la bibliografia, no són vàlides per a tots els verbs que participen en l'estructura sintàctica esmentada. Es considera que ni la sintaxi ni la morfologia tampoc poden donar llum dels fets i es proposa que l'explicació de la manca d'uniformitat pel que fa a l'aparició del pronom ha de trobar-se a partir de fenòmens que no es poden discernir en observar només l'estat actual de la llengua.

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Inter-individual diet variation within populations is likely to have important ecological and evolutionary implications. The diet-fitness relationships at the individual level and the emerging population processes are, however, poorly understood for most avian predators inhabiting complex terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we use an isotopic approach to assess the trophic ecology of nestlings in a long-lived raptor, the Bonelli"s eagle Aquila fasciata, and investigate whether nestling dietary breath and main prey consumption can affect the species" reproductive performance at two spatial scales: territories within populations and populations over a large geographic area. At the territory level, those breeding pairs whose nestlings consumed similar diets to the overall population (i.e. moderate consumption of preferred prey, but complemented by alternative prey categories) or those disproportionally consuming preferred prey were more likely to fledge two chicks. An increase in the diet diversity, however, related negatively with productivity. The age and replacements of breeding pair members had also an influence on productivity, with more fledglings associated to adult pairs with few replacements, as expected in long-lived species. At the population level, mean productivity was higher in those population-years with lower dietary breadth and higher diet similarity among territories, which was related to an overall higher consumption of preferred prey. Thus, we revealed a correspondence in diet-fitness relationships at two spatial scales: territories and populations. We suggest that stable isotope analyses may be a powerful tool to monitor the diet of terrestrial avian predators on large spatio-temporal scales, which could serve to detect potential changes in the availability of those prey on which predators depend for breeding. We encourage ecologists and evolutionary and conservation biologists concerned with the multi-scale fitness consequences of inter-individual variation in resource use to employ similar stable isotope-based approaches, which can be successfully applied to complex ecosystems such as the Mediterranean.

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The use of body percussion through BAPNE method in neurorehabilitation offers the possibility of studying the development of motor skills, attention, coordination, memory and social interaction of patients with neurological diseases. The experimental protocol was carried out on 52 patients with severe acquired brain injury. Patients were selected for the cut - off scores in the standard neuropsychologic al tests of sustained attention , divided and alert ; at least one emisoma intact, cut -off scores in the standard for procedural and semantic memory ; eye sight , hearing and speech intact. The first group of patients has supported the protocol BAPNE tougher with the traditional rehabilitation activities . The control group continued to perform exclusively the cognitive and neuromotor rehabilitation according to traditional protocols. At 6 months after administration of the protocol is expected to re-test to assess if present , the maintenance of the effects of rehabilitation obtained. Experimentation is carried out for 10 weeks following the protocol of BAPNE method in the Roboris Foundation of Rome.

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This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

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Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

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Este trabajo pretende detallar la prescripción de la NIC 41 Agricultura y su seguimiento a nivel español. Inicialmente existía una voluntad de asumir la NIC 41 pero la realidad muestra que la normativa contable española no aplica el valor razonable para los activos biológicos y productos agrarios, incluso cuando existen mercados activos que garantizan la formación de precios; es decir, la utilización del coste histórico se impone en las empresas españolas agrarias, a pesar de la existencia de importantes debates sobre la bondad del valor razonable, lo que supone una valoración patrimonial diferente.