Metrics for Predicting User Behavior and Experience in an Interactive Storytelling System

In much of the previous research into the field of interactive storytelling, the focus has been on the creation of complete systems, then evaluating the performance of those systems based on user experience. Less focus has been placed on finding general solutions to problems that manifest in many different types of interactive storytelling systems. The goal of this thesis was to identify potential candidates for metrics that a system could use to predict player behavior or how players experience the story they are presented with, and to put these metrics to an empirical test. The three metrics that were used were morality, relationships and conflict. The game used for user testing of the metrics, Regicide is an interactive storytelling experience that was created in conjunction with Eero Itkonen. Data, in the forms of internal system data and survey answers, collected through user testing, was used to evaluate hypotheses for each metric. Out of the three chosen metrics, morality performed the best in this study. Though further research and refinement may be required, the results were promising, and point to the conclusion that user responses to questions of morality are a strong predictor for their choices in similar situations later on in the course of an interactive story. A similar examination for user relationships with other characters in the story did not produce promising results, but several problems were recognized in terms of methodology and further research with a better optimized system may yield different results. On the subject of conflict, several aspects, proposed by Ware et al. (2012), were evaluated separately. Results were inconclusive, with the aspect of directness showing the most promise.

Measuring software security from the design of software

The vast majority of our contemporary society owns a mobile phone, which has resulted in a dramatic rise in the amount of networked computers in recent years. Security issues in the computers have followed the same trend and nearly everyone is now affected by such issues. How could the situation be improved? For software engineers, an obvious answer is to build computer software with security in mind. A problem with building software with security is how to define secure software or how to measure security. This thesis divides the problem into three research questions. First, how can we measure the security of software? Second, what types of tools are available for measuring security? And finally, what do these tools reveal about the security of software? Measuring tools of these kind are commonly called metrics. This thesis is focused on the perspective of software engineers in the software design phase. Focus on the design phase means that code level semantics or programming language specifics are not discussed in this work. Organizational policy, management issues or software development process are also out of the scope. The first two research problems were studied using a literature review while the third was studied using a case study research. The target of the case study was a Java based email server called Apache James, which had details from its changelog and security issues available and the source code was accessible. The research revealed that there is a consensus in the terminology on software security. Security verification activities are commonly divided into evaluation and assurance. The focus of this work was in assurance, which means to verify one’s own work. There are 34 metrics available for security measurements, of which five are evaluation metrics and 29 are assurance metrics. We found, however, that the general quality of these metrics was not good. Only three metrics in the design category passed the inspection criteria and could be used in the case study. The metrics claim to give quantitative information on the security of the software, but in practice they were limited to evaluating different versions of the same software. Apart from being relative, the metrics were unable to detect security issues or point out problems in the design. Furthermore, interpreting the metrics’ results was difficult. In conclusion, the general state of the software security metrics leaves a lot to be desired. The metrics studied had both theoretical and practical issues, and are not suitable for daily engineering workflows. The metrics studied provided a basis for further research, since they pointed out areas where the security metrics were necessary to improve whether verification of security from the design was desired.

Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

A school-based cognitive behavior modification intervention strategy for learned helpless mentally retarded students

This study assessed the usefulness of a cognitive behavior modification (CBM) intervention package with mentally retarded students in overcoming learned helplessness and improving learning strategies. It also examined the feasibility of instructing teachers in the use of such a training program for a classroom setting. A modified single subject design across individuals was employed using two groups of three subjects. Three students from each of two segregated schools for the mentally retarded were selected using a teacher questionnaire and pupil checklist of the most learned helpless students enrolled there. Three additional learned helplessness assessments were conducted on each subject before and after the intervention in order to evaluate the usefulness of the program in alleviating learned helplessness. A classroom environment was created with the three students from each school engaged in three twenty minute work sessions a week with the experimenter and a tutor experimenter (TE) as instructors. Baseline measurements were established on seven targeted behaviors for each subject: task-relevant speech, task-irrelevant speech, speech denoting a positive evaluation of performance, speech denoting a negative evaluation of performance, proportion of time on task, non-verbal positive evaluation of performance and non-verbal negative evaluation of performance. The intervention package combined a variety of CBM techniques such as Meichenbaum's (1977) Stop, Look and Listen approach, role rehearsal and feedback. During the intervention each subject met with his TE twice a week for an individual half-hour session and one joint twenty minute session with all three students, the experimentor and one TE. Five weeks after the end of this experiment one follow up probe was conducted. All baseline, post-intervention and probe sessions were videotaped. The seven targeted behaviors were coded and comparisons of baseline, post intervention, and probe testing were presented in graph form. Results showed a reduction in learned helplessness in all subjects. Improvement was noted in each of the seven targeted behaviors for each of the six subjects. This study indicated that mentally retarded children can be taught to reduce learned helplessness with the aid of a CBM intervention package. It also showed that CBM is a viable approach in helping mentally retarded students acquire more effective learning strategies. Because the TEs (Tutor experimenters) had no trouble learning and implementing this program, it was considered feasible for teachers to use similar methods in the classroom.

Learning styles and achievement in postsecondary classrooms

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between learning styles and academic achievement in postsecondary education. It was the intent of the study to establish if there was a relationship between student learning style, teacher style, learner/teacher matching and/or mismatching, student gender and age, to the academic grades of students. This study was basically a replication of a study completed by Mary J. Thompson and Terrance P. O'Brien in 1991 on two campuses of a southeast community college in the United States. In the present study, 243 students and 18 teachers from two different campuses of a community college in the Province of Ontario participated in the research. All participants were administered the Gregorc Style Delineator and students identified by program, age and gender. Data were tested by two analysis of variance (ANOVA) models. In the first ANOVA model considered in this study, significant main effects were manifested in regard to the teaching style, age group and gender. With the exception of gender, these findings were very similiar to those of the original study. Duncan's multiple range test revealed that Concrete Sequential (CS) teachers assigned significantly lower grades than did teachers dominant in any of the other three learning styles. Post hoc testing revealed that students 25 years of age and older received significantly higher grades than did younger students. Female students also received significantly higher grades than did male students. In the second ANOVA model student/teacher learning style match/mismatch did emerge as a significant main effect. However, Duncan's multiple range test and Chi square analysis did not substantiate the relationship. Forty-eight references are cited.

Immediate and enduring effects of corticosterone administration during adolescence and adulthood on anxiety and depressive behavior in male rats

Previous research has shown that the stress hormone corticosterone can increase depressive and anxiety-like behavior in rats as well as dampen the HPA response to a novel stressor (Kalynchuk et aI., 2004; Johnson et aI., 2006). Several studies have also shown that adolescence is a period of increased sensitivity to the negative effects of stressors (reviewed in McCormick et aI., 2010), which are often the result of exposure to corticosterone, and yet there is no research to date examining the effects of corticosterone administration during adolescence. The purpose of these experiments is to determine both the immediate and enduring effects of prolonged exposure to corticosterone in adolescence and adulthood on anxiety-like behavior, depressive behavior, and the HPA response. In Experiment 1 adolescent and adult rats were administered an injection of 40 mg/kg of corticosterone or vehicle daily for 16 days. Ha l f of the rats were then tested on the elevated plus maze (EPM) one day after their last injection, and the following day were tested on the forced swim test (FST). After the FST, which is a stressor, blood samples were collected at three time points, and the plasma concentrations of corticosterone were determined using a radioimmunoassay. The remaining rats were left undisturbed for three weeks, and then underwent the same testing as the first group. Corticosterone treatment had little effect on anxiety-like and depressive behavior, but it did alter the HPA response to the FST. In those rats tested soon after the period of injections, corticosterone dampened the HPA response as compared to vehicle treated rats in both adolescent and adult treated rats. For the adolescent treated rats that were tested several weeks later, corticosterone treatment increased HPA response as compared to the vehicle treated rats, but the same was not true for the adult treated rats. I t was hypothesized that the lack of behavioral effects of the corticosterone treatment may be the result of the vehicle injections inducing a stress response and thereby both groups would have similarly altered behavior. In Experiment 2 rats were administered corticosterone dissolved in their drinking water with 2.5% ethanol, or jus t the 2.5% ethanol or plain water, to determine the effects of corticosterone treatment without a stressor present. The regular drinking water was replaced with treated water for 16 days either during adulthood or adolescence, and as before, rats were either tested in the FST one day after the water was removed or three weeks later. Again there was no effect of treatment on depressive behavior. Similar to what was observed in Experiment 1, corticosterone treatment dampened the HPA response to a stressor for the rats tested soon after the treatment period. However, in Experiment 2 there was no effect of treatment on HPA response in those rats tested several weeks after they were treated. These results indicate that corticosterone can have a lasting effect on the HPA when administered in adolescence by injections but not in drinking water, which is likely because of the different schedules of exposure and rates of absorption between the two administration methods.

Priming Prosocial Behavior to Augment Bystander Interventions in Bullying Situations

Bullying is a harmful phenomenon wherein victims have difficulty defending themselves. Bystanders have been identified as a potentially effective group for reducing bullying. The goal of this research is to determine whether prosocial primes (operationalized as empathy and civility) have an effect on increasing bystander interventions among youth. A total of 52 participants between the ages of 10-14 were randomly assigned to two experimental groups or one control group. Participants either received neutral control stories or they were primed twice with stories showing characters acting empathetically or civilly. Testing measures involve a short video and questionnaire assessing willingness to act as a bystander. Results reveal that prosocial training can augment willingness to engage in defending behaviors when compared to the control V = .19, F(2, 46) = 5.53, p < .01, ω2 = .19, correcting for the sphericity violation. This finding represents a relatively easy and non-invasive way to potentially change the bullying-related attitudes of adolescents, thereby potentially reducing bullying behaviors.

Safe Handling of Large Animals

The article discusses improving welfare by reducing fear by studying: Animal Sensory Perception, Animal Behavior Patterns, Animal Habituation and Temperament, Effects of Previous Handling, Training Animals, Training Time and Temperament, Genetic Effects on Handling, Handling of escaped Animals, Facilities, Aggression in Grazing Animals, Inherent Danger of Large Animals, Cattle and Car Accidents.

Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing

Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number of lags or the number of equations is not small, we propose a general simulation-based technique that allows one to control completely the level of tests in parametric VAR models. In particular, we show that maximized Monte Carlo tests [Dufour (2002)] can provide provably exact tests for such models, whether they are stationary or integrated. Applications to order selection and causality testing are considered as special cases. The technique developed is applied to quarterly and monthly VAR models of the U.S. economy, comprising income, money, interest rates and prices, over the period 1965-1996.

Warning Patients’ Relatives of Genetic Risks: Policy Approaches

As an increasing number of genetic tests for specific early- and late-onset disorders move from research to the clinical setting, health care professionals are faced with new challenges or, alternatively, with novel twists on age-old ethical dilemmas. A finding that an individual carries a deleterious mutation can indicate that his or her relatives are at an increased risk of being affected by the same genetic disorder.

Le renvoi des jeunes contrevenants aux tribunaux pour adultes : la loi et les pratiques

"Mémoire présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maître en droit (LL.M.)"

Providing Genetic Testing Through the Private Sector: A View From Canada

Genetic testing technologies are rapidly moving from the research laboratory to the market place. Very little scholarship considers the implications of private genetic testing for a public health care system such as Canada’s. It is critical to consider how and if these tests should be marketed to, and purchased by, the public. It is also imperative to evaluate the extent to which genetic tests are or should be included in Canada’s public health care system, and the impact of allowing a two-tiered system for genetic testing. A series of threshold tests are presented as ways of clarifying whether a genetic test is morally appropriate, effective and safe, efficient and appropriate for public funding and whether private purchase poses special problems and requires further regulation. These thresholds also identify the research questions around which professional, public and policy debate must be sustained: What is a morally acceptable goal for genetic services? What are the appropriate benefits? What are the risks? When is it acceptable that services are not funded under health care? And how can the harms of private access be managed?

Analysis of the Ethical, Social and Legal Issues Related to the Delivery of the Prenatal Genetic Testing in Argentina

L'introduction de nouvelles biotechnologies dans tout système de soins de santé est un processus complexe qui est étroitement lié aux facteurs économiques, politiques et culturels, et, par conséquent, demande de remettre en cause plusieurs questions sociales et éthiques. Dans la situation particulière de l’Argentine - c’est-à-dire: de grandes inégalités sociales entre les citoyens, la rareté des ressources sanitaires, l’accès limité aux services de base, l’absence de politiques spécifiques - l'introduction de technologies génétiques pose de sérieux défis qui doivent impérativement être abordés par les décideurs politiques. Ce projet examine le cas des tests génétiques prénataux dans le contexte du système de santé argentin pour illustrer comment leur introduction peut être complexe dans une nation où l’accès égale aux services de santé doit encore être amélioré. Il faut également examiner les restrictions légales et les préceptes religieux qui influencent l'utilisation des technologies génétiques, ce qui souligne la nécessite de développer un cadre de référence intégral pour le processus d'évaluation des technologies afin d’appuyer l’élaboration de recommandations pour des politiques cohérentes et novatrices applicables au contexte particulier de l’Argentine.