914 resultados para Error Probability


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This thesis was aimed at verifying the role of the superior colliculus (SC) in human spatial orienting. To do so, subjects performed two experimental tasks that have been shown to involve SC’s activation in animals, that is a multisensory integration task (Experiment 1 and 2) and a visual target selection task (Experiment 3). To investigate this topic in humans, we took advantage of neurophysiological finding revealing that retinal S-cones do not send projections to the collicular and magnocellular pathway. In the Experiment 1, subjects performed a simple reaction-time task in which they were required to respond as quickly as possible to any sensory stimulus (visual, auditory or bimodal audio-visual). The visual stimulus could be an S-cone stimulus (invisible to the collicular and magnocellular pathway) or a long wavelength stimulus (visible to the SC). Results showed that when using S-cone stimuli, RTs distribution was simply explained by probability summation, indicating that the redundant auditory and visual channels are independent. Conversely, with red long-wavelength stimuli, visible to the SC, the RTs distribution was related to nonlinear neural summation, which constitutes evidence of integration of different sensory information. We also demonstrate that when AV stimuli were presented at fixation, so that the spatial orienting component of the task was reduced, neural summation was possible regardless of stimulus color. Together, these findings provide support for a pivotal role of the SC in mediating multisensory spatial integration in humans, when behavior involves spatial orienting responses. Since previous studies have shown an anatomical asymmetry of fibres projecting to the SC from the hemiretinas, the Experiment 2 was aimed at investigating temporo-nasal asymmetry in multisensory integration. To do so, subjects performed monocularly the same task shown in the Experiment 1. When spatially coincident audio-visual stimuli were visible to the SC (i.e. red stimuli), the RTE depended on a neural coactivation mechanism, suggesting an integration of multisensory information. When using stimuli invisible to the SC (i.e. purple stimuli), the RTE depended only on a simple statistical facilitation effect, in which the two sensory stimuli were processed by independent channels. Finally, we demonstrate that the multisensory integration effect was stronger for stimuli presented to the temporal hemifield than to the nasal hemifield. Taken together, these findings suggested that multisensory stimulation can be differentially effective depending on specific stimulus parameters. The Experiment 3 was aimed at verifying the role of the SC in target selection by using a color-oddity search task, comprising stimuli either visible or invisible to the collicular and magnocellular pathways. Subjects were required to make a saccade toward a target that could be presented alone or with three distractors of another color (either S-cone or long-wavelength). When using S-cone distractors, invisible to the SC, localization errors were similar to those observed in the distractor-free condition. Conversely, with long-wavelength distractors, visible to the SC, saccadic localization error and variability were significantly greater than in either the distractor-free condition or the S-cone distractors condition. Our results clearly indicate that the SC plays a direct role in visual target selection in humans. Overall, our results indicate that the SC plays an important role in mediating spatial orienting responses both when required covert (Experiments 1 and 2) and overt orienting (Experiment 3).

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The theory of the 3D multipole probability tomography method (3D GPT) to image source poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles, of a geophysical vector or scalar field dataset is developed. A geophysical dataset is assumed to be the response of an aggregation of poles, dipoles, quadrupoles and octopoles. These physical sources are used to reconstruct without a priori assumptions the most probable position and shape of the true geophysical buried sources, by determining the location of their centres and critical points of their boundaries, as corners, wedges and vertices. This theory, then, is adapted to the geoelectrical, gravity and self potential methods. A few synthetic examples using simple geometries and three field examples are discussed in order to demonstrate the notably enhanced resolution power of the new approach. At first, the application to a field example related to a dipole–dipole geoelectrical survey carried out in the archaeological park of Pompei is presented. The survey was finalised to recognize remains of the ancient Roman urban network including roads, squares and buildings, which were buried under the thick pyroclastic cover fallen during the 79 AD Vesuvius eruption. The revealed anomaly structures are ascribed to wellpreserved remnants of some aligned walls of Roman edifices, buried and partially destroyed by the 79 AD Vesuvius pyroclastic fall. Then, a field example related to a gravity survey carried out in the volcanic area of Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) is presented, aimed at imaging as accurately as possible the differential mass density structure within the first few km of depth inside the volcanic apparatus. An assemblage of vertical prismatic blocks appears to be the most probable gravity model of the Etna apparatus within the first 5 km of depth below sea level. Finally, an experimental SP dataset collected in the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcanic district (Naples, Italy) is elaborated in order to define location and shape of the sources of two SP anomalies of opposite sign detected in the northwestern sector of the surveyed area. The modelled sources are interpreted as the polarization state induced by an intense hydrothermal convective flow mechanism within the volcanic apparatus, from the free surface down to about 3 km of depth b.s.l..

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The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

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Die Drei-Spektrometer-Anlage am Mainzer Institut für Kernphysik wurde um ein zusätzliches Spektrometer ergänzt, welches sich durch seine kurze Baulänge auszeichnet und deshalb Short-Orbit-Spektrometer (SOS) genannt wird. Beim nominellen Abstand des SOS vom Target (66 cm) legen die nachzuweisenden Teilchen zwischen Reaktionsort und Detektor eine mittlere Bahnlänge von 165 cm zurück. Für die schwellennahe Pionproduktion erhöht sich dadurch im Vergleich zu den großen Spektrometern die Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit geladener Pionen mit Impuls 100 MeV/c von 15% auf 73%. Demzufolge verringert sich der systematische Fehler ("Myon-Kontamination"), etwa bei der geplanten Messung der schwachen Formfaktoren G_A(Q²) und G_P(Q²), signifikant. Den Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Arbeit bildet die Driftkammer des SOS. Ihre niedrige Massenbelegung (0,03% X_0) zur Reduzierung der Kleinwinkelstreuung ist auf den Nachweis niederenergetischer Pionen hin optimiert. Aufgrund der neuartigen Geometrie des Detektors musste eine eigene Software zur Spurrekonstruktion, Effizienzbestimmung etc. entwickelt werden. Eine komfortable Möglichkeit zur Eichung der Driftweg-Driftzeit-Relation, die durch kubische Splines dargestellt wird, wurde implementiert. Das Auflösungsvermögen des Spurdetektors liegt in der dispersiven Ebene bei 76 µm für die Orts- und 0,23° für die Winkelkoordinate (wahrscheinlichster Fehler) sowie entsprechend in der nicht-dispersiven Ebene bei 110 µm bzw. 0,29°. Zur Rückrechnung der Detektorkoordinaten auf den Reaktionsort wurde die inverse Transfermatrix des Spektrometers bestimmt. Hierzu wurden an Protonen im ¹²C-Kern quasielastisch gestreute Elektronen verwendet, deren Startwinkel durch einen Lochkollimator definiert wurden. Daraus ergeben sich experimentelle Werte für die mittlere Winkelauflösung am Target von sigma_phi = 1,3 mrad bzw. sigma_theta = 10,6 mrad. Da die Impulseichung des SOS nur mittels quasielastischer Streuung (Zweiarmexperiment) durchgeführt werden kann, muss man den Beitrag des Protonarms zur Breite des Piks der fehlenden Masse in einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation abschätzen und herausfalten. Zunächst lässt sich nur abschätzen, dass die Impulsauflösung sicher besser als 1% ist.

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This doctoral dissertation presents a new method to asses the influence of clearancein the kinematic pairs on the configuration of planar and spatial mechanisms. The subject has been widely investigated in both past and present scientific literature, and is approached in different ways: a static/kinetostatic way, which looks for the clearance take-up due to the external loads on the mechanism; a probabilistic way, which expresses clearance-due displacements using probability density functions; a dynamic way, which evaluates dynamic effects like the actual forces in the pairs caused by impacts, or the consequent vibrations. This dissertation presents a new method to approach the problem of clearance. The problem is studied from a purely kinematic perspective. With reference to a given mechanism configuration, the pose (position and orientation) error of the mechanism link of interest is expressed as a vector function of the degrees of freedom introduced in each pair by clearance: the presence of clearance in a kinematic pair, in facts, causes the actual pair to have more degrees of freedom than the theoretical clearance-free one. The clearance-due degrees of freedom are bounded by the pair geometry. A proper modelling of clearance-affected pairs allows expressing such bounding through analytical functions. It is then possible to study the problem as a maximization problem, where a continuous function (the pose error of the link of interest) subject to some constraints (the analytical functions bounding clearance- due degrees of freedom) has to be maximize. Revolute, prismatic, cylindrical, and spherical clearance-affected pairs have been analytically modelled; with reference to mechanisms involving such pairs, the solution to the maximization problem has been obtained in a closed form.

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The space environment has always been one of the most challenging for communications, both at physical and network layer. Concerning the latter, the most common challenges are the lack of continuous network connectivity, very long delays and relatively frequent losses. Because of these problems, the normal TCP/IP suite protocols are hardly applicable. Moreover, in space scenarios reliability is fundamental. In fact, it is usually not tolerable to lose important information or to receive it with a very large delay because of a challenging transmission channel. In terrestrial protocols, such as TCP, reliability is obtained by means of an ARQ (Automatic Retransmission reQuest) method, which, however, has not good performance when there are long delays on the transmission channel. At physical layer, Forward Error Correction Codes (FECs), based on the insertion of redundant information, are an alternative way to assure reliability. On binary channels, when single bits are flipped because of channel noise, redundancy bits can be exploited to recover the original information. In the presence of binary erasure channels, where bits are not flipped but lost, redundancy can still be used to recover the original information. FECs codes, designed for this purpose, are usually called Erasure Codes (ECs). It is worth noting that ECs, primarily studied for binary channels, can also be used at upper layers, i.e. applied on packets instead of bits, offering a very interesting alternative to the usual ARQ methods, especially in the presence of long delays. A protocol created to add reliability to DTN networks is the Licklider Transmission Protocol (LTP), created to obtain better performance on long delay links. The aim of this thesis is the application of ECs to LTP.

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Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

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In technical design processes in the automotive industry, digital prototypes rapidly gain importance, because they allow for a detection of design errors in early development stages. The technical design process includes the computation of swept volumes for maintainability analysis and clearance checks. The swept volume is very useful, for example, to identify problem areas where a safety distance might not be kept. With the explicit construction of the swept volume an engineer gets evidence on how the shape of components that come too close have to be modified.rnIn this thesis a concept for the approximation of the outer boundary of a swept volume is developed. For safety reasons, it is essential that the approximation is conservative, i.e., that the swept volume is completely enclosed by the approximation. On the other hand, one wishes to approximate the swept volume as precisely as possible. In this work, we will show, that the one-sided Hausdorff distance is the adequate measure for the error of the approximation, when the intended usage is clearance checks, continuous collision detection and maintainability analysis in CAD. We present two implementations that apply the concept and generate a manifold triangle mesh that approximates the outer boundary of a swept volume. Both algorithms are two-phased: a sweeping phase which generates a conservative voxelization of the swept volume, and the actual mesh generation which is based on restricted Delaunay refinement. This approach ensures a high precision of the approximation while respecting conservativeness.rnThe benchmarks for our test are amongst others real world scenarios that come from the automotive industry.rnFurther, we introduce a method to relate parts of an already computed swept volume boundary to those triangles of the generator, that come closest during the sweep. We use this to verify as well as to colorize meshes resulting from our implementations.

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The uncertainties in the determination of the stratigraphic profile of natural soils is one of the main problems in geotechnics, in particular for landslide characterization and modeling. The study deals with a new approach in geotechnical modeling which relays on a stochastic generation of different soil layers distributions, following a boolean logic – the method has been thus called BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation). In this way, it is possible to randomize the presence of a specific material interdigitated in a uniform matrix. In the building of a geotechnical model it is generally common to discard some stratigraphic data in order to simplify the model itself, assuming that the significance of the results of the modeling procedure would not be affected. With the proposed technique it is possible to quantify the error associated with this simplification. Moreover, it could be used to determine the most significant zones where eventual further investigations and surveys would be more effective to build the geotechnical model of the slope. The commercial software FLAC was used for the 2D and 3D geotechnical model. The distribution of the materials was randomized through a specifically coded MatLab program that automatically generates text files, each of them representing a specific soil configuration. Besides, a routine was designed to automate the computation of FLAC with the different data files in order to maximize the sample number. The methodology is applied with reference to a simplified slope in 2D, a simplified slope in 3D and an actual landslide, namely the Mortisa mudslide (Cortina d’Ampezzo, BL, Italy). However, it could be extended to numerous different cases, especially for hydrogeological analysis and landslide stability assessment, in different geological and geomorphological contexts.

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Il lavoro descrive la progettazione, l'implementazione e il test sperimentale di un meccanismo, integrato nel kernel Linux 4.0, dedicato al riconoscimento delle perdite dei frame Wi-Fi.

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I Polar Codes sono la prima classe di codici a correzione d’errore di cui è stato dimostrato il raggiungimento della capacità per ogni canale simmetrico, discreto e senza memoria, grazie ad un nuovo metodo introdotto recentemente, chiamato ”Channel Polarization”. In questa tesi verranno descritti in dettaglio i principali algoritmi di codifica e decodifica. In particolare verranno confrontate le prestazioni dei simulatori sviluppati per il ”Successive Cancellation Decoder” e per il ”Successive Cancellation List Decoder” rispetto ai risultati riportati in letteratura. Al fine di migliorare la distanza minima e di conseguenza le prestazioni, utilizzeremo uno schema concatenato con il polar code come codice interno ed un CRC come codice esterno. Proporremo inoltre una nuova tecnica per analizzare la channel polarization nel caso di trasmissione su canale AWGN che risulta il modello statistico più appropriato per le comunicazioni satellitari e nelle applicazioni deep space. In aggiunta, investigheremo l’importanza di una accurata approssimazione delle funzioni di polarizzazione.

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A Swiss-specific FRAX model was developed. Patient profiles at increased probability of fracture beyond currently accepted reimbursement thresholds for bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and osteoporosis treatment were identified.