Eurokriisi ja euroalueen rakenteelliset ongelmat

Maailmanlaajuinen finanssikriisi on vaikuttanut merkittävällä tavalla euroalueen toimintaan ja tuonut esiin ongelmia sen rakenteessa. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tunnistaa eurokriisiin johtaneita tekijöitä ja euroalueen keskeisiä rakenteellisia ongelmia. Teoriakehys muodostui optimaalisen valuutta-alueen teoriasta, jota täydennettiin velkaantumiseen, pankkikriiseihin ja vaihtotaseiden epätasapainotiloihin liittyvällä teorialla. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnettiin laaja-alaisesti olemassa olevaa teoreettista ja empiiristä kirjallisuutta sekä eri tietokannoista saatavaa makrodataa. Tulokset kertovat rahoitusmarkkinoiden keskeisestä roolista epätasapainotilojen kehittymisessä sekä rahaunionin puutteellisista mukautumismekanismeista. Institutionaalisen rakenteen osalta euroalueen keskeisiä ongelmia ovat olleet tehokkaan pankkivalvonnan puute sekä viime hetken lainoittajan puuttuminen valtionvelkakirjamarkkinoilla.

A link between sleep loss, glucose metabolism and adipokines

The present review evaluates the role of sleep and its alteration in triggering problems of glucose metabolism and the possible involvement of adipokines in this process. A reduction in the amount of time spent sleeping has become an endemic condition in modern society, and a search of the current literature has found important associations between sleep loss and alterations of nutritional and metabolic contexts. Studies suggest that sleep loss is associated with problems in glucose metabolism and a higher risk for the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The mechanism involved may be associated with the decreased efficacy of regulation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis by negative feedback mechanisms in sleep-deprivation conditions. In addition, changes in the circadian pattern of growth hormone (GH) secretion might also contribute to the alterations in glucose regulation observed during sleep loss. On the other hand, sleep deprivation stress affects adipokines - increasing tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) and decreasing leptin and adiponectin -, thus establishing a possible association between sleep-debt, adipokines and glucose metabolism. Thus, a modified release of adipokines resulting from sleep deprivation could lead to a chronic sub-inflammatory state that could play a central role in the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Further studies are necessary to investigate the role of sleep loss in adipokine release and its relationship with glucose metabolism.

Determinants of capital expenditures: Evidence from oil and mining sectors in Russia

This master’s thesis investigates the significant macroeconomic and firm level determinants of CAPEX in Russian oil and mining sectors. It also studies the Russian oil and mining sectors, its development, characteristics and current situation. The panel data methodology was implemented to identify the determinants of CAPEX in Russian oil and mining sectors and to test derived hypotheses. The core sample consists of annual financial data of 45 publicly listed Russian oil and mining sector companies. The timeframe of the thesis research is a six year period from 2007 to 2013. The findings of the master’s thesis have shown that Gross Sales, Return On Assets, Free Cash Flow and Long Term Debt are firm level performance variables along with Russian GDP, Export, Urals and the Reserve Fund are macroeconomic variables that determine the magnitude of new capital expenditures reported by publicly listed Russian oil and mining sector companies. These results are not controversial to the previous research paper, indeed they confirm them. Furthermore, the findings from the emerging countries, such as Malaysia, India and Portugal, are analogous to Russia. The empirical research is edifying and novel. Findings from this master’s thesis are highly valuable for the scientific community, especially, for researchers who investigate the determinant of CAPEX in developing countries. Moreover, the results can be utilized as a cogent argument, when companies and investors are doing strategic decisions, considering the Russian oil and mining sectors.

Pienyrittäjän velkajärjestely

Laki yksityishenkilön velkajärjestelystä (VJL, 57/1993) muuttui 1.1.2015. Yksityiset elinkeinon- ja ammatinharjoittajat saivat aiemmin velkajärjestelyn yksityistalouden veloille, mutta uutta on se, että myös elinkeinotoiminnan velkoja voidaan järjestellä samassa yhteydessä. Yksityishenkilön velkajärjestelyä ei voi hakea pelkästään yrityksen velkoihin. Jotta elinkeinon- ja ammatinharjoittaja voisi saada velkajärjestelyn, yritystoiminnan pitää olla pienimuotoista ja perustua yrittäjän omaan työpanokseen. Laki ei koske yhtiömuotoisia yrityksiä, joten ne rajataan tämän tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Tässä tutkimuksessa selvitetään, miten velkajärjestelylaki kohtelee pienyrittäjää. Velkajärjestelylakiin tuli 30 muutosta, mutta keskityn tutkimuksessani pienyrittäjän kannalta merkityksellisiin seikkoihin. Toisena tutkimustehtävänä on selvittää pienyrittäjän epäonnistumisen syitä ja seurauksia. Työn tutkimuksellinen lähestymistapa on kvalitatiivinen eli laadullinen ja aineistonkeräystapana käytettiin puolistrukturoituja haastatteluja. Tutkimusaineistoa kerättiin haastattelemalla epäonnistumisen kokeneita yrittäjiä tammi-maaliskuussa 2015. Teoriaosuudessa perehdytään alan kirjallisuuteen, tuomioistuimen oikeustapaukseen ja hallituksen esityksiin. Johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että velkajärjestelylain muutos mahdollistaa ammatin- ja elinkeinonharjoittajien pääsyn velkajärjestelyyn ja velkajärjestelyssä voidaan tietyin edellytyksin järjestellä elinkeinotoiminnasta syntyneet velat. Menettely on kevyempi ja edullisempi kuin yrityssaneeraus. Lakimuutos on historiallinen insolvenssioikeuden alalla ja se asettaa elinkeinon- ja ammatinharjoittajat tasavertaiseen asemaan muiden velallisten kanssa ottaen huomioon elinkeinotoiminnan velkojen järjestelylle asettamat erityispiirteet. Velkajärjestelyn edellytykset ovat pienyrittäjälle hyvin tiukat, eli olettavasti moni velallinen ei hakeudu velkajärjestelyyn. Käytäntö osoittaa, onko säännöstö niin tiukka, etteivät yksityiset elinkeinon- ja ammatinharjoittajat hae velkajärjestelyä, vaan lopettavat mieluummin liiketoimintansa.

Renegociação da dívida pública interna em condições de sobreendividamento

Renegotiation of the public debt in conditions of excessive debt. This paper studies the debt overhang models and maturity management models, and analyses both theoretically and historically the debt renegotiations which the final outcome is a lower public debt burden. From the theoretical view the renegotiation plans can be Pareto improving, both creditors and debtors can be better-off, and the value of the new debt will price the new reputation and debtors' willingness to pay. From the historical point of view, funded debts were the instrument that debtors used to improve reputation.

Independência do banco central e equilíbrio fiscal: algumas observações para o caso brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an imrovement in the fiscal balance.

Federalismo e endividamento subnacional: uma discussão sobre a sustentabilidade da dívida estadual

The subnational debt in Brazil was marked by successive bailouts by the federal government. The path of subnational debt induced some locals and state authorities to claim for further renegotiations. More specifically, some governors and mayors demanded a revision of the refinancing contracts. This article intends to present arguments sustained by simulations of the evolution of the path of the subnational debt, denying the necessity of changes in legal framework, which rules the state debt. The first section consists of a brief overview. The following section treats the institutional framework designed to safeguard the fiscal intertemporal balance. In the third section, the implications of new institutional framework on the subnational debt are approached; in the fourth, the possible causes that distorted the expected path of the debt are discussed. The fifth section analyses the future perspectives for the debt in general terms and focuses some specific cases, while the sixth section discusses the problem under a federal optics. Finally, the conclusion is presented.

The false promises of the (second) Washington consensus: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean (1990-2003)

The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we show how, and to what extent, Latin American and Caribbean countries applied the precepts of the second Washington consensus, i.e. a consensus which stresses the capital account liberalization. Secondly, we highlight the effects of this set of reforms on their economies. Thus, we show that countries having most scrupulously followed these recommendations did not experience better economic results. On the contrary, their situation as regards inequality and debt is getting worse than others.

Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

From the 'Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade': intersectoral transfers and external credit in the Brazilian economy

The present paper examines the Brazilian experience from the 'Economic Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade'. Its aim is to advance an alternative measurement of the flows of extraordinary wealth (i.e. ground-rent and net external credit) available for appropriation in the Brazilian economy and to asses their relevance in sustaining the process of accumulation of industrial capital. That is done in order to provide further and more accurate evidence to the claim that the evolution of the Brazilian process of capital accumulation has been extremely dependent on the evolution of those masses of extraordinary wealth.

Matemática agradável

This paper suggests a reconsideration of the principle that public deficits should be financed by public debt. Two main reasons are offered. First, it is admitted that public debt is an economic variable whose time behaviour is better described by a first difference equation instead of an accounting identity. The convergence condition thus obtained requires either a nominal negative interest rate or that government bonds are used to raise tax income, hypotheses not theoretically granted. As a consequence, if primary surplus is not sufficient to match interests' payment, it will be observed an explosive trend in the public debt, the due interests and the money issuing. Therefore, it lacks support to the idea that public debt prevents inflation. Second, it is shown that financing public deficit through money issuing leads to a stable equilibrium money stock. The general conclusion is that, in order to simultaneously promote economic growth and inflation control, money issuing is preferable to public debt.

Globalização e inconversibilidade monetária

The central hypothesis of this article is that in the context of globalization, monetary inconvertibility is a crucial problem of peripheral countries. It begins with a brief review of the debate from a historical point of view and then stresses the contemporary opposite's views on the fragility of financial system of emerging countries: the original sin and the debt intolerance hypothesis. Despite of supporting the first one, the article goes further and explores the domestic implication of inconvertibility. It criticizes the jurisdicional uncertainty proposition showing that an inherent flaw in the store of value of emerging market currencies, derived from original sin is the main reason for de facto inconvertibility and underdevelopment of domestic financial system of these countries.

Dívida pública, poupança em conta corrente do governo e superávit primário: uma análise de sustentabilidade

On this paper, we propose a change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving. That concept excludes public investment from primary surplus. However, of that change has raised a question about if government current account saving represents a sustainable fiscal policy. Thus, this paper analyses if the change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving implies a meaning modification on the debt-to-GDP ratio path. The empirical analysis, which is based on Brazilian monthly data for the period 1999-2005, suggests that the change in fiscal target does not mean a lack of sustain-ability.

Endividamento público, crescimento, moeda e inflação: comentário a "Matemática agradável", de Gerson Lima

The paper aims at analyzing the article by Gerson Lima on the manner by which fiscal deficit should be covered. It presents a more general dynamic model, where the principle of effective demand is explicitly used. By doing that, it is possible to treat as endogenous variables the national income and the government entries, what brings the result that the public debt must not follow an explosive path unless the very restrictive conditions of Lima's paper prevail. It also evaluates Lima's implicit inflation theory, and argues against his approximation to Friedman's framework.

Endividamento público, crescimento, moeda e inflação: comentário a "matemática agradável", de Gerson Lima - a réplica

This paper aims at replying critical commentaries made by Leite, F. P., Aggio, G. O. e Angeli, E. (this Review, 2009) on two Author's theses. The first one states that, if public deficit is to be financed, then either interest rate applied is negative or government invests as if it where a profit-making business enterprise. Otherwise, public debt will mathematically follow an explosive trend. The second one says that if there is no debt and public deficit is paid with money issuing, then the monetary stock will tend to an equilibrium level.