Fact And Fictions In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Jugant amb l'atzar i la probabilitat

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. Quins científics van interessar-se per la probabilitat en els seus inicis?, quins altres van fer-la evolucionar? i quins conceptes coneixem i apliquem a l'actualitat? són preguntes que el treball teòric es proposa respondre. Pel que fa a la part pràctica del treball, el seu objectiu és el de crear un mecanisme capaç de generar nombres aleatoris a partir d'un taulell condicionat per paràmetres. El treball s'estructura en 4 blocs que aborden diversos camps de la probabilitat: la història de la probabilitat, els conceptes bàsics de la probabilitat, una introducció pràctica al mecanisme aleatori i el treball de camp. Els resultats finals rebel·len la possibilitat de generar nombres aleatoris a partir d'aparells senzills.

Promotion de l'activité physique chez les aînés: enjeux et stratégies spécifiques. [Promotion of exercise in older people: issues and strategies].

Regular physical activity is among the most effective interventions to prevent or delay functional decline and disability, even in older persons. Despite relatively strong scientific evidence supporting these benefits, the majority of older persons remain mostly sedentary. For these persons, concerns about injury or fear of negative consequences on their chronic diseases are among the most powerful barriers to participation in regular physical activity. Promotion of physical activity among older persons has therefore become one of the five main themes of the health promotion project "Via", a project that aims at promoting good practice in prevention and health promotion directed toward older adults in Switzerland. This paper summarizes the main recommendations issued from this national project supported by the Swiss Health Promotion Foundation.

Estudi comparatiu del sòl d'una vinya de Sant Pere de Ribes

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Anàlisi comparatiu de diferents propietats del sòl d’una vinya on s’ha observat que els peus presenten un creixement desigual. A partir d'una observació a simple vista de les plantes de la vinya i del sòl sobre el qual es desenvolupen, es proposa la hipòtesi de que el sòl pot ser un factor determinant per aquest creixement desigual. Després de fer una recerca bibliogràfica sobre l’edafologia, les propietats del sòl i els tipus de sòl que es poden trobar als voltants de Sant Pere de Ribes, l’autora ha fet una selecció de propietats físico-químiques que poden estar més relacionades amb el creixement de les plantes. Després de fer el mostreig i seguir els protocols de laboratori s’han analitzat els resultats i s’han redactat les conclusions. Les propietats estudiades han permès determinar els tipus de sòl, uns sòls de textures entre franco-arenoses i areno-franques. S’ha trobat també una correlació entre les diverses propietats estudiades: un sòl de porositat elevada, que presenta valors alts de velocitat d’infiltració i per tant amb baixa capacitat de retenció d’aigua disponible, no sembla el sòl ideal per al desenvolupament de les plantes de vinya. A partir del treball es plantegen noves incògnites sobre les adaptacions dels ceps a aquests tipus de sòl o sobre la qualitat del raïm que s'hi pot desenvolupar.

A modified assay for measuring thymocyte co-stimulatory activity

The observation that murine thymocytes increase their proliferation to interleukin 1 (IL-1) in the presence of phytohemagglutinin (PHA) when pre-incubated with interleukin 2 (IL-2) allowed the introduction of a modified assay for the measurement of IL-1 or the search of thymocyte-inducing proliferative activities in biological samples. Pre-incubation of thymocytes for 24 hr with 50 u/ml IL-2, followed by washings, elicited their maximal response to IL-1 in the usual lymphocyte activating factor (LAF) assay. This suggests that sequential events lead to thymocyte activation. The responsiveness is three to five fold greater than, and the total time of assay is the same as that of the LAF assay. Interestingly, pre-incubation with IL-2 renders thymocytes more sensitive than responsive to crude monocyte conditioned media. The use of the MTT colorimetric method for the assessment of thymocyte proliferation, and of the lectin jacalin as a co-mitogen are suggested as alternatives to be used in co-stimulatory assays.

Cultural leaders and the clash of civilizations

This article builds a micro founded model of the clash of cultures. The clash is defined as the parent's fear of a trait change by their child in an overlapping generations model with intergenerational transmission of cultural traits. The extent of the clash is manipulated by cultural leaders who benefit from the cultural education effort by parents. We identify three channels through which the leaders can affect the clash of cultures: (i) by providing beneficial cultural values, (ii) by claims of cultural superiority and (iii) by cultural alienation, i.e. by inducing cultural dislike towards their own group. We show that all three channels can be in the leader's interest but channels (ii) and (iii) reduce the utility of the leader's goup members. This hints to a strong conflict of interest within groups - between the population at large and the benefactors of radicalization. We further show how the use of alienation relates to the economic opportunities available to a group.

Frailty and use of health and community services by community-dwelling older men: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

BACKGROUND: frailty is a concept used to describe older people at high risk of adverse outcomes, including falls, functional decline, hospital or nursing home admission and death. The associations between frailty and use of specific health and community services have not been investigated. METHODS: the cross-sectional relationship between frailty and use of several health and community services in the last 12 months was investigated in 1,674 community-dwelling men aged 70 or older in the Concord Health and Ageing in Men study, a population-based study conducted in Sydney, Australia. Frailty was assessed using a modified version of the Cardiovascular Health Study criteria. RESULTS: overall, 158 (9.4%) subjects were frail, 679 (40.6%) were intermediate (pre-frail) and 837 (50.0%) were robust. Frailty was associated with use of health and community services in the last 12 months, including consulting a doctor, visiting or being visited by a nurse or a physiotherapist, using help with meals or household duties and spending at least one night in a hospital or nursing home. Frail men without disability in activities of daily living were twice more likely to have seen a doctor in the previous 2 weeks than robust men (adjusted odds ratio 2.04, 95% confidence interval 1.21-3.44), independent of age, comorbidity and socio-economic status. CONCLUSION: frailty is strongly associated with use of health and community services in community-dwelling older men. The high level of use of medical services suggests that doctors and nurses could play a key role in implementation of preventive interventions.

Estudio de los mecanismos terapéuticos en la inducción de tolerancia immunológica en un modelo animal de esclerosis múltiple

En una serie de estudios previos demostramos que la infusión de células de médula ósea (MO) modificadas genéticamente para la expresión del autoantígeno MOG40-55 en ausencia de mieloablación inducía tolerancia antígenoespecífica en un modelo murino de esclerosis múltiple. También observamos que este efecto terapéutico no requería injerto hematopoyético. Nos propusimos estudiar si el efecto tolerogénico está inducido por una subpoblación de células generadas durante la transducción de la MO y el papel de las células T reguladoras en la inducción de la tolerancia. Las células de MO fueron cultivadas y transducidas usando medio complementado con 20% FCS y medios condicionados como fuente de stem cell factor (SCF) e IL-3 murinos. Las diferentes poblaciones celulares se separaron por citometría de flujo y se analizó la capacidad supresora de las poblaciones candidatas. Por otro lado se analizó la presencia de células T reguladoras en bazo y SNC de los ratones recuperados después de la infusión de células de MO transducidas. A los cinco días de cultivo, la mayoría de células presentaban fenotipo mieloide (Mac-1+Gr-1low/-:31,9+-10,2%; Mac-1+Gr-1high:26,0+-3,3%). Ambos fenotipos se corresponden con dos subpoblaciones de células mieloides supresoras (MDSC, tipo monocí¬tico y granulocítico respectivamente) descritas recientemente. Se estudió la capacidad de ambas poblaciones para suprimir la respuesta proliferativa específica de esplenocitos frente a MOG40-55 in vitro, observando una mayor capacidad de supresión de las MDSC monocíticas, que se correspondí¬a con niveles significativamente superiores de actividad de las enzimas arginasa-1 y sintasa de óxido nítrico (ambos mecanismos supresores característicos de las MDSC). A los 7 días del tratamiento no se observaron diferencias significativas en el porcentaje de células T reguladoras (Treg y Tr1) entre el grupo tratado (liM) y los grupos de control.

Emotional reactivity at 12 months in very preterm infants born at <29 weeks of gestation.

The present study evaluated the socio-emotional development of very preterm born infants at 12 months corrected age. Forty-one infants born very preterm (<29 weeks of gestation) were compared to 22 infants born full term on a standardized behavioral assessment and a parental temperament questionnaire, both measuring emotional reactivity to joy, anger and fear, as well as sustained attention. The behavioral assessment showed that very preterm infants exhibited as much joy as full term infants during a joy-eliciting episode. However, they expressed a significantly higher reactivity in anger-eliciting situations and a reduced reactivity toward fear-eliciting situations. For all three emotion-eliciting situations, the preterm infants reacted with a higher level of motor activity. The preterm infants also exhibited a distinct attention pattern with a significantly higher initial attention level which declined rapidly throughout the episode. The questionnaire did not show any group differences. The clinical relevance of these results in terms of preliminary hallmarks of later behavioral difficulties such attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder are discussed as well as the inconsistencies observed between the questionnaire and the behavioral assessment.

Role of the hypocretin system in cocaine- and alcohol-related behaviors : evidence from hypocretin-deficient mice

RésuméL'addiction aux drogues est une maladie multifactorieile affectant toutes les strates de notre société. Cependant, la vulnérabilité à développer une addiction dépend de facteurs environnementaux, génétiques et psychosociaux. L'addiction aux drogues est décrite comme étant une maladie chronique avec un taux élevé de rechutes. Elle se caractérise par un besoin irrépressible de consommer une drogue et une augmentation progressive de la consommation en dépit des conséquences néfastes. Les mécanismes cérébraux responsables des dépendances aux drogues ne sont que partiellement élucidés, malgré une accumulation croissante d'évidences démontrant des adaptations au niveau moléculaire et cellulaire au sein des systèmes dopaminergique et glutamatergique. L'identification de nouveaux facteurs neurobiologiques responsables de la vulnérabilité aux substances d'abus est cruciale pour le développement de nouveaux traitements thérapeutiques capables d'atténuer et de soulager les symptômes liés à la dépendance aux drogues.Au cours des dernières années, de nombreuses études ont démontré qu'un nouveau circuit cérébral, le système hypocrétinergique, était impliqué dans plusieurs fonctions physiologiques, tel que l'éveil, le métabolisme énergétique, la motivation, le stress et les comportements liés aux phénomènes de récompense. Le système hypocrétinergique est composé d'environ 3000-4000 neurones issus de l'hypothalamus latéral projetant dans tout ie cerveau. Des souris transgéniques pour le gène des hypocrétines ont été générées et leur phénotype correspond à celui des animaux sauvages, excepté le fait qu'elles soient atteintes d'attaques de sommeil similaires à celles observées chez les patients narcoleptiques. H semblerait que les hypocrétines soient requises pour l'acquisition et l'expression de la dépendance aux drogues. Cependant, le mécanisme précis reste encore à être élucidé. Dans ce rapport, nous rendons compte des comportements liés aux phénomènes de récompense liés à l'alcool et à la cocaine chez les souris knock-out (KO), hétérozygotes (HET) et sauvages (WT).Nous avons, dans un premier temps, évalué l'impact d'injections répétées de cocaïne (15 mg/kg, ip) sur la sensibilisation locomotrice et sur le conditionnement place préférence. Nous avons pu observer que les souris WT, HET et KO exprimaient une sensibilisation locomotrice induite par une administration chronique de cocaïne, cependant les souris déficientes en hypocrétines démontraient une sensibilisation retardée et atténuée. Π est intéressant de mentionner que les mâles HET exprimaient une sensibilisation comportementale intermédiaire. Après normalisation des données, toutes les souris exprimaient une amplitude de sensibilisation similaire, excepté les souris mâles KO qui affichaient, le premier jour de traitement, une sensibilisation locomotrice réduite et retardée, reflétant un phénotype hypoactif plutôt qu'une altération de la réponse aux traitements chroniques de cocaïne. Contre toute attente, toutes les souris femelles exprimaient un pattern similaire de sensibilisation locomotrice à la cocaïne. Nous avons ensuite évalué l'effet d'un conditionnement comportemental à un environnement associé à des injections répétées de cocaine (15 mg / kg ip). Toutes les souris, quelque soit leur sexe ou leur génotype, ont manifesté une préférence marquée pour l'environnement apparié à la cocaïne. Après deux semaines d'abstinence à la cocaïne, les mâles et les femelles déficientes en hypocrétines n'exprimaient plus aucune préférence pour le compartiment précédemment associé à la cocaïne. Alors que les souris WT et HET maintenaient leur préférence pour le compartiment associé à la cocaïne. Pour finir, à l'aide d'un nouveau paradigme appelé IntelliCage®, nous avons pu évaluer la consommation de liquide chez les femelles WT, HET et KO. Lorsqu'il n'y avait que de l'eau disponible, nous avons observé que les femelles KO avaient tendance à moins explorer les quatre coins de la cage. Lorsque les souris étaient exposées à quatre types de solutions différentes (eau, ImM quinine ou 0.2% saccharine, alcool 8% et alcool 16%), les souris KO avaient tendance à moins consommer l'eau sucrée et les solutions alcoolisées. Cependant, après normalisation des données, aucune différence significative n'a pu être observée entre les différents génotypes, suggérant que la consommation réduite d'eau sucrée ou d'alcool peut être incombée à l'hypoactivité des souris KO.Ces résultats confirment que le comportement observé chez les souris KO serait dû à des compensations développementales, puisque la sensibilisation locomotrice et le conditionnement comportemental à la cocaïne étaient similaires aux souris HET et WT. En ce qui concerne la consommation de liquide, les souris KO avaient tendance à consommer moins d'eau sucrée et de solutions alcoolisées. Le phénotype hypoactif des souris déficientes en hypocrétine est probablement responsable de leur tendance à moins explorer leur environnement. Il reste encore à déterminer si l'expression de ce phénotype est la conséquence d'un état de vigilance amoindri ou d'une motivation diminuée à la recherche de récompense. Nos résultats suggèrent que les souris déficientes en hypocrétine affichent une motivation certaine à la recherche de récompense lorsqu'elles sont exposées à des environnements où peu d'efforts sont à fournir afin d'obtenir une récompense.AbstractDrug addiction is a multifactorial disorder affecting human beings regardless their education level, their economic status, their origin or even their gender, but the vulnerability to develop addiction depends on environmental, genetic and psychosocial dispositions. Drug addiction is defined as a chronic relapsing disorder characterized by compulsive drug seeking, with loss of control over drug intake and persistent maladaptive decision making in spite of adverse consequences. The brain mechanisms responsible for drug abuse remain partially unknown despite accumulating evidence delineating molecular and cellular adaptations within the glutamatergic and the dopaminergic systems. However, these adaptations do not fully explain the complex brain disease of drug addiction. The identification of other neurobiological factors responsible for the vulnerability to substance abuse is crucial for the development of promising therapeutic treatments able to alleviate signs of drug dependence.For the past few years, growing evidence demonstrated that a recently discovered brain circuit, the hypocretinergic system, is implicated in many physiological functions, including arousal, energy metabolism, motivation, stress and reward-related behaviors. The hypocretin system is composed of a few thousands neurons arising from the lateral hypothalamus and projecting to the entire brain. Hypocretin- deficient mice have been generated, and unexpectedly, their phenotype resembles that of wild type mice excepting sleep attacks strikingly similar to those of human narcolepsy patients. Evidence suggesting that hypocretins are required for the acquisition and the expression of drug addiction has also been reported; however the precise mechanism by which hypocretins modulate drug seeking behaviors remains a matter of debate. Here, we report alcohol and cocaine reward-related behaviors in hypocretin-deficient mice (KO), as well as heterozygous (HET) and wild type (WT) littermates.We first evaluated the impact of repeated cocaine injections (15 mg/kg, ip) on locomotor sensitization and conditioned place preference. We observed that WT, HET and KO mice exhibited behavioral sensitization following repeated cocaine administrations, but hypocretin deficient males displayed a delayed and attenuated response to chronic cocaine administrations. Interestingly, HET males exhibited an intermediate pattern of behavioral sensitization. However, after standardization of the post-injection data versus the period of habituation prior to cocaine injections, all mice displayed similar amplitudes of behavioral sensitization, except a reduced response in KO males on the first day, suggesting that the delayed and reduced cocaine-induced locomotor sensitization may reflect a hypoactive phenotype and probably not an altered response to repeated cocaine administrations. Unexpectedly, all female mice exhibited similar patterns of cocaine-induced behavioral sensitization. We then assessed the behavioral conditioning for an environment repeatedly paired with cocaine injections (15 mg/kg ip). All mice, whatever their gender or genotype, exhibited a robust preference for the environment previously paired with cocaine administrations. Noteworthy, following two weeks of cocaine abstinence, hypocretin-deficient males and females no longer exhibited any preference for the compartment previously paired with cocaine rewards whereas both WT and HET mice continued manifesting a robust preference. We finally assessed drinking behaviors in WT, HET and KO female mice using a novel paradigm, the IntelliCages®. We report here that KO females tended to less explore the four cage comers where water was easily available. When exposed to four different kinds of liquid solutions (water, ImM quinine or saccharine 0.2%, alcohol 8% and alcohol 16%), KO mice tended to less consume the sweet and the alcoholic beverages. However, after data standardization, no significant differences were noticed between genotypes suggesting that the hypoactive phenotype is most likely accountable for the trend regarding the reduced sweet or alcohol intake in KO.Taken together, the present findings confirm that the behavior seen in Hcrt KO mice likely reflects developmental compensations since only a slightly altered cocaine-induced behavioral sensitization and a normal behavioral conditioning with cocaine were observed in these mice compared to HET and WT littermates. With regards to drinking behaviors, KO mice barely displayed any behavioral changes but a trend for reducing sweet and alcoholic beverages. Overall, the most striking observation is the constant hypoactive phenotype seen in the hypocretin-deficient mice that most likely is accountable for their reduced tendency to explore the environment. Whether this hypoactive phenotype is due to a reduced alertness or reduced motivation for reward seeking remains debatable, but our findings suggest that the hypocretin-deficient mice barely display any altered motivation for reward seeking in environments where low efforts are required to access to a reward.

An exploratory study on facial emotion recognition capacity in beginning Alzheimer's disease.

Objective: It was the aim of this study to investigate facial emotion recognition (FER) in the elderly with cognitive impairment. Method: Twelve patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 12 healthy control subjects were asked to name dynamic or static pictures of basic facial emotions using the Multimodal Emotion Recognition Test and to assess the degree of their difficulty in the recognition task, while their electrodermal conductance was registered as an unconscious processing measure. Results: AD patients had lower objective recognition performances for disgust and fear, but only disgust was accompanied by decreased subjective FER in AD patients. The electrodermal response was similar in all groups. No significant effect of dynamic versus static emotion presentation on FER was found. Conclusion: Selective impairment in recognizing facial expressions of disgust and fear may indicate a nonlinear decline in FER capacity with increasing cognitive impairment and result from progressive though specific damage to neural structures engaged in emotional processing and facial emotion identification. Although our results suggest unchanged unconscious FER processing with increasing cognitive impairment, further investigations on unconscious FER and self-awareness of FER capacity in neurodegenerative disorders are required.

A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

Cronyism in Business, Public Sector and Politics

This paper contrasts the incentives for cronyism in business, the public sector and politics within an agency problem model with moral hazard. The analysis is focused on the institutional differences between private, public and political organizations. In business, when facing a residual claimant contract, a chief manager ends up with a relatively moderate …rst-best level of cronyism within a …firm. The institutional framework of the public sector does not allow explicit contracting, which leads to a more severe cronyism problem within public organizations. Finally, it is shown that the nature of political appointments (such that the subordinate's reappointment is conditioned on the chief's re-election) together with implicit contracting makes political cronyism the most extreme case. JEL classifi…cation: D72, D73, D86. Keywords: Cronyism; Meritocracy; Manager; Bureaucrat; Politician.