Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

QCD thermal phase transition in the presence of a small chemical potential

We propose a new method to investigate the thermal properties of QCD with a small quark chemical potential mu. Derivatives of quark and gluonic observables with respect to mu are computed at mu=0 for two flavors of p4 improved staggered fermions with ma=0.1,0.2 on a 16(3)x4 lattice, and used to calculate the leading order Taylor expansion in mu of the location of the pseudocritical point about mu=0. This expansion should be well behaved for the small values of mu(q)/T(c)similar to0.1 relevant for BNL RHIC phenomenology, and predicts a critical curve T-c(mu) in reasonable agreement with estimates obtained using exact reweighting. In addition, we contrast the case of isoscalar and isovector chemical potentials, quantify the effect of munot equal0 on the equation of state, and comment on the complex phase of the fermion determinant in QCD with munot equal0.

Risk and protective factors for depressive symptomatology among a community sample of adolescents and young adults

Objectives: The study explores the risk and protective factors for current depressive symptomatology in a large community sample of 15-to-24-year-olds. Methods: The study was designed as a cross-sectional household survey, which used telephone recruitment followed by an anonymous self-report postal questionnaire. The final sample included 3,082 adolescents and young adults from Queensland, Australia. Results: The vast majority of measured risk and protective factors were associated with current depressive symptomatology. Key risk factors included high levels of neuroticism, perceived problems with parents, sexual abuse, relationship breakups, educational failure and sexual identity conflict. A different profile of protective factors was evident for each of these high-risk groups. Of particular note was the importance of well-developed intrapersonal skills as protective for both males and females. The significance of social connectedness as a protective factor for the males overall and across a range of high-risk groups was a central finding. Conclusions and implications: The implications of these findings in relation to a range of mental health promotion and mental illness prevention and early intervention initiatives are discussed. Supported initiatives include parenting programs that consider the realities of modern families, increasing community awareness of the impact on young people of the breakdown of their intimate relationships, initiatives in educational settings and workplaces to increase tolerance of gay/lesbian and bisexual lifestyles and the enhancement of social connectedness.

Risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients with coronary heart disease and the effect of lipid-modifying therapy with pravastatin

Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Bioactivation of tamoxifen by recombinant human cytochrome P450 enzymes

Tamoxifen is a major drug used for adjuvant chemotherapy of breast cancer; however, its use has been associated with a small but significant increase in risk of endometrial cancer. In rats, tamoxifen is a hepatocarcinogen, and DNA adducts have been observed in both rat and human tissues. Tamoxifen has been shown previously to be metabolized to reactive products that have the potential to form protein and DNA adducts. Previous studies have suggested a role for P450 3A4 in protein adduct formation in human liver microsomes, via a catechol intermediate; however, no clear correlation was seen between P450 3A4 content of human liver microsomes and adduct formation. In the present study, we investigated the P450 forms responsible for covalent drug-protein adduct formation and the possibility that covalent adduct formation might occur via alternative pathways to catechol formation. Recombinant P450 3A4 catalyzed adduct formation, and this correlated with the level of uncoupling in the P450 incubation, consistent with a role of reactive oxygen species in potentiating adduct formation after enzymatic formation of the catechol metabolite. Whereas P450s 1AI, 2D6, and 3A5 generated catechol metabolite, no covalent adduct formation was observed with these forms. By contrast, P450 2136, 2C19, and rat liver microsomes catalyzed drug-protein adduct formation but not catechol formation. Drug protein adducts formed specifically with P450 3A4 in incubations using membranes isolated from bacteria expressing P450 3A4 and reductase, as well as in reconstitutions of purified 3A4, suggesting that the electrophilic species reacted preferentially with the P450 enzymes concerned.