891 resultados para Automatic forecasting


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[EN]During the last decade, researchers have verified that clothing can provide information for gender recognition. However, before extracting features, it is necessary to segment the clothing region. We introduce a new clothes segmentation method based on the application of the GrabCut technique over a trixel mesh, obtaining very promising results for a close to real time system. Finally, the clothing features are combined with facial and head context information to outperform previous results in gender recognition with a public database.

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A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

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Process algebraic architectural description languages provide a formal means for modeling software systems and assessing their properties. In order to bridge the gap between system modeling and system im- plementation, in this thesis an approach is proposed for automatically generating multithreaded object-oriented code from process algebraic architectural descriptions, in a way that preserves – under certain assumptions – the properties proved at the architectural level. The approach is divided into three phases, which are illustrated by means of a running example based on an audio processing system. First, we develop an architecture-driven technique for thread coordination management, which is completely automated through a suitable package. Second, we address the translation of the algebraically-specified behavior of the individual software units into thread templates, which will have to be filled in by the software developer according to certain guidelines. Third, we discuss performance issues related to the suitability of synthesizing monitors rather than threads from software unit descriptions that satisfy specific constraints. In addition to the running example, we present two case studies about a video animation repainting system and the implementation of a leader election algorithm, in order to summarize the whole approach. The outcome of this thesis is the implementation of the proposed approach in a translator called PADL2Java and its integration in the architecture-centric verification tool TwoTowers.

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[EN]This paper focuses on four different initialization methods for determining the initial shape for the AAM algorithm and their particular performance in two different classification tasks with respect to either the facial expression DaFEx database and to the real world data obtained from a robot’s point of view.

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[EN]In this paper we review the novel meccano method. We summarize the main stages (subdivision, mapping, optimization) of this automatic tetrahedral mesh generation technique and we concentrate the study to complex genus-zero solids. In this case, our procedure only requires a surface triangulation of the solid. A crucial consequence of our method is the volume parametrization of the solid to a cube. We construct volume T-meshes for isogeometric analysis by using this result. The efficiency of the proposed technique is shown with several examples. A comparison between the meccano method and standard mesh generation techniques is introduced.-1…

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[EN]In this paper we introduce a new methodology for wind field forecasting over complex terrain. The idea is to use the predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model [1, 2]. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in [3]. The HARMONIE results (obtained with a maximum resolution about 1 Km) are refined in a local scale (about a few meters)...

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[EN]Ensemble forecasting [1] is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in [2]. The wind _eld forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind pro_le using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie [3], a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms [4]. The mesh is generated using the meccano method [5] and adapted to the geometry. The main source of uncertainties in this model is the parameter estimation and the in- trinsic uncertainties of the Harmonie Model…

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[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

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[EN]Different researches suggest that inner facial features are not the only discriminative features for tasks such as person identification or gender classification. Indeed, they have shown an influence of features which are part of the local face context, such as hair, on these tasks. However, object-centered approaches which ignore local context dominate the research in computational vision based facial analysis. In this paper, we performed an analysis to study which areas and which resolutions are diagnostic for the gender classification problem. We first demonstrate the importance of contextual features in human observers for gender classification using a psychophysical ”bubbles” technique.

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Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

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In dieser Dissertation stellen wir einen neuen Ansatz zurModellierungvon Polymersystemen vor. Es werden (von methodischer Seiteher) zweiautomatisierte Iterationschemata dazu eingeführt,Kraftfeldparametermesoskopischer Polymersysteme systematisch zu optimieren:DasSimplex-Verfahren und das Struktur-Differenzen-Verfahren. Sowerdendiejenigen Freiheitsgrade aus Polymersystemen eliminiert,die einehohe Auflösung erfordern, was die Modellierung größerersystemeermöglicht. Nach Tests an einfachen Flüssigkeiten werdenvergröberteModelle von drei prototypischen Polymeren (Polyacrylsäure,Polyvinylalkohol und Polyisopren) in unterschiedlichenUmgebungen(gutes Lösungsmittel und Schmelze) entwickelt und ihrVerhalten aufder Mesoskala ausgiebig geprüft. Die zugehörige Abbildung(vonphysikalischer Seite her) so zu gestalten, daß sie dieunverwechselbaren Charakteristiken jedes systems auf diemesoskopischeLängenskala überträgt, stellt eine entscheidende Anforderungan dieautomatisierten Verfahren dar. Unsere Studien belegen, daß mesoskopische Kraftfeldertemperatur- unddichtespezifisch sind und daher bei geändernden Bedingungennachoptimiert werden müssen. Gleichzeitig läßt sichabschätzen, beiwelchen Umgebungsbedingungen dies noch nicht notwendig wird.In allenFällen reichen effektive Paarpotentiale aus, einrealistischesmesoskopisches Modell zu konstruieren. VergröberteSimulationenwerden im Falle der Polyacrylsäure erfolgreich gegenexperimentelleLichtstreudaten getestet. Wir erzielen für Molmassen bis zu300000g/mol eine hervorragende Übereinstimmung für denhydrodynamischenRadius. Unsere Ergebnisse erklären auch Korrekturen zudessenVerhalten als Funktion der Kettenlänge ('Skalenverhalten'). Im Fallevon Polyisopren untersuchen wir sowohl statische als auchdynamischeGrößen und stellen klare Unterschiede unserer Ergebnisse zudeneneines einfachen semi-flexiblen Mesoskalenmodells fest. InderProteinforschung werden aus Datenbanken gewonnene effektivePaarwechselwirkungen dazu verwendet, die freie Energie einesneuensystems vorherzusagen. Wir belegen in einem Exkurs mittelsGittersimulationen, daß es selbst in einfachsten Fällennicht gelingt,dies auch nur qualitativ korrekt zu bewerkstelligen.

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A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.