Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Evaluation of maternal and neonatal hospital care: quality index of completeness

OBJECTIVE Develop an index to evaluate the maternal and neonatal hospital care of the Brazilian Unified Health System.METHODS This descriptive cross-sectional study of national scope was based on the structure-process-outcome framework proposed by Donabedian and on comprehensive health care. Data from the Hospital Information System and the National Registry of Health Establishments were used. The maternal and neonatal network of Brazilian Unified Health System consisted of 3,400 hospitals that performed at least 12 deliveries in 2009 or whose number of deliveries represented 10.0% or more of the total admissions in 2009. Relevance and reliability were defined as criteria for the selection of variables. Simple and composite indicators and the index of completeness were constructed and evaluated, and the distribution of maternal and neonatal hospital care was assessed in different regions of the country.RESULTS A total of 40 variables were selected, from which 27 single indicators, five composite indicators, and the index of completeness of care were built. Composite indicators were constructed by grouping simple indicators and included the following variables: hospital size, level of complexity, delivery care practice, recommended hospital practice, and epidemiological practice. The index of completeness of care grouped the five variables and classified them in ascending order, thereby yielding five levels of completeness of maternal and neonatal hospital care: very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high. The hospital network was predominantly of small size and low complexity, with inadequate child delivery care and poor development of recommended and epidemiological practices. The index showed that more than 80.0% hospitals had a low index of completeness of care and that most qualified heath care services were concentrated in the more developed regions of the country.CONCLUSIONS The index of completeness proved to be of great value for monitoring the maternal and neonatal hospital care of Brazilian Unified Health System and indicated that the quality of health care was unsatisfactory. However, its application does not replace specific evaluations.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Effect of the exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy and childhood on the body mass index until adolescence

OBJECTIVE Investigate the effect of exposure to smoking during pregnancy and early childhood on changes in the body mass index (BMI) from birth to adolescence.METHODS A population-based cohort of children (0-5 years old) from Cuiabá, Midwest Brazil, was assessed in 1999-2000 (n = 2,405). Between 2009 and 2011, the cohort was re-evaluated. Information about birth weight was obtained from medical records, and exposure to smoking during pregnancy and childhood was assessed at the first interview. Linear mixed effects models were used to estimate the association between exposure to maternal smoking during pregnancy and preschool age, and the body mass index of children at birth, childhood and adolescence.RESULTS Only 11.3% of the mothers reported smoking during pregnancy, but most of them (78.2%) also smoked during early childhood. Among mothers who smoked only during pregnancy (n = 59), 97.7% had smoked only in the first trimester. The changes in body mass index at birth and in childhood were similar for children exposed and those not exposed to maternal smoking. However, from childhood to adolescence the rate of change in the body mass index was higher among those exposed only during pregnancy than among those who were not exposed.CONCLUSIONS Exposure to smoking only during pregnancy, especially in the first trimester, seems to affect changes in the body mass index until adolescence, supporting guidelines that recommend women of childbearing age to stop smoking.

Using test infrastructures for (remote) online evaluation of the sensitivity to SEUs of FPGAs

This paper proposes an online mechanism that can evaluate the sensitivity of single event upsets (SEUs) of field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The online detection mechanism cyclically reads and compares the values form the external and internal configuration memories, taking into account the mask information. This remote detection method also signals any mismatch as a result of a SEU that affects both used and not-used FPGA parts, which maximizes the monitored area. By utilizing an external, Web-accessible controller that is connected to the test infrastructure, the possibility of running the same operation in a remote manner is enabled. Moreover, the need for a local memory to store the mask values is also eliminated.

Risk factors for recurrent wheezing in infants: a case-control study

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between recurrent wheezing and atopy, the Asthma Predictive Index, exposure to risk factors, and total serum IgE levels as potential factors to predict recurrent wheezing. METHODS A case-control study with infants aged 6-24 months treated at a specialized outpatient clinic from November 2011 to March 2013. Evaluations included sensitivity to inhalant and food antigens, positive Asthma Predictive Index, and other risk factors for recurrent wheezing (smoking during pregnancy, presence of indoor smoke, viral infections, and total serum IgE levels). RESULTS We evaluated 113 children: 65 infants with recurrent wheezing (63.0% male) with a mean age of 14.8 (SD = 5.2) months and 48 healthy infants (44.0% male) with a mean age of 15.2 (SD = 5.1) months. In the multiple analysis model, antigen sensitivity (OR = 12.45; 95%CI 1.28–19.11), positive Asthma Predictive Index (OR = 5.57; 95%CI 2.23–7.96), and exposure to environmental smoke (OR = 2.63; 95%CI 1.09–6.30) remained as risk factors for wheezing. Eosinophilia ≥ 4.0% e total IgE ≥ 100 UI/mL were more prevalent in the wheezing group, but failed to remain in the model. Smoking during pregnancy was identified in a small number of mothers, and secondhand smoke at home was higher in the control group. CONCLUSIONS Presence of atopy, positive Asthma Predictive Index and exposure to environmental smoke are associated to recurrent wheezing. Identifying these factors enables the adoption of preventive measures, especially for children susceptible to persistent wheezing and future asthma onset.

Evaluation of the influence of testing parameters on the melt flow index of thermoplastics

The main goals of the present work are the evaluation of the influence of several variables and test parameters on the melt flow index (MFI) of thermoplastics, and the determination of the uncertainty associated with the measurements. To evaluate the influence of test parameters on the measurement of MFI the design of experiments (DOE) approach has been used. The uncertainty has been calculated using a "bottom-up" approach given in the "Guide to the Expression of the Uncertainty of Measurement" (GUM). Since an analytical expression relating the output response (MFI) with input parameters does not exist, it has been necessary to build mathematical models by adjusting the experimental observations of the response variable in accordance with each input parameter. Subsequently, the determination of the uncertainty associated with the measurement of MFI has been performed by applying the law of propagation of uncertainty to the values of uncertainty of the input parameters. Finally, the activation energy (Ea) of the melt flow at around 200 degrees C and the respective uncertainty have also been determined.

Processamento sensorial e interacção diádica como promotores de resiliência nas crianças de famílias com baixos rendimentos

A pesquisa sobre resiliência sugere que a criança que se desenvolve em contexto adverso, poderá usufruir de atributos relevantes, pessoais e do ambiente. Neste sentido pretendeu-se estudar, até que ponto, as competências de modulação sensorial da criança e a qualidade das interacções mãe-filho, influenciavam as trajectórias de risco e podiam promover as oportunidades de resiliência da criança. Participaram no estudo 136 crianças, 67 do sexo feminino e 69 do sexo masculino, com idades entre os 7 e os 36 meses. Analisámos a sensibilidade materna em situação de jogo livre recorrendo à escala CARE-Index e o processamento sensorial através do de entrevista baseado no protocolo de Dunn (1997) assente nos quatro padrões de processamento sensorial: baixo registo; sensibilidade sensorial; procura sensorial; evitamento sensorial, construto anteriormente validado. Constituímos, com base nas premissas do modelo de avaliação autêntica, um índex de capacidades, que nos serviu como referencial para a avaliação do risco e da resiliência. Os resultados indicaram que a resiliência infantil em ambiente de pobrezaestava associada a indicadores de elevada sensibilidade materna e a índices adequados de processamento sensorial. A discussão dos resultados enquadrou-se nos modelos actuais e emergentes das influências neurobiológicas e ambientais nos processos de risco e de resiliência.

Peroxidase antibody test for mucocutaneous leishmaniasis serology performance indexes and comparison with a fluorescent antibody test: Comparação com o desempenho da reação de imunofluorescência

Performance indexes of the peroxidase antibody test were compared to that of the fluorescent antibody test. The peroxidase antibody test had a statistically higher sensitivity and negative predictive value and a higher efficiency than the fluorescent antibody test but its specificity and positive predictive value were within the 95% confidence limits for the values found for the fluorescent antibody test. Such differences did not change when Chagas' disease and visceral leishmaniasis sera were included in index calculations. Statistical analysis showed that the two tests have a substantial degree of agreement but the immunofluorescent test had a specificity index and a positive predictive value equal to 100.0% when Chagas' disease and visceral leishmaniasis sera were not included in the calculations of the performance index; in this instance, a positive test result equals a disclosure of the disease attribute due to the inexistence of false positive results. The enzyme/ protein ratio of the peroxidase conjugate, resulting in heavy or light-labeled conjugates may pose technical problems to its use in serology tests.

Performing PET/CT studies: do they create anxiety?

Introduction: Anxiety is a common problem in primary care and specialty medical settings. Treating an anxious patient takes more time and adds stress to staff. Unrecognised anxiety may lead to exam repetition, image artifacts and hinder the scan performance. Reducing patient anxiety at the onset is probably the most useful means of minimizing artifactual FDG uptake, both fat brown and skeletal muscle uptake, as well patient movement and claustrophobia. The aim of the study was to examine the effects of information giving on the anxiety levels of patients who are to undergo a PET/CT and whether the patient experience is enhanced with the creation of a guideline. Methodology: Two hundred and thirty two patients were given two questionnaires before and after the procedure to determine their prior knowledge, concerns, expectations and experiences about the study. Verbal information was given by one of the technologists after the completion of the first questionnaire. Results: Our results show that the main causes of anxiety in patients who are having a PET/CT is the fear of the procedure itself, and fear of the results. The patients who suffered from greater anxiety were those who were scanned during the initial stage of a disease. No significant differences were found between the anxiety levels pre procedural and post procedural. Findings with regard to satisfaction show us that the amount of information given before the procedure does not change the anxiety levels and therefore, does not influence patient satisfaction. Conclusions: The performance of a PET/CT scan is an important and statistically generator of anxiety. PET/CT patients are often poorly informed and present with a range of anxieties that may ultimately affect examination quality. The creation of a guideline may reduce the stress of not knowing what will happen, the anxiety created and may increase their satisfaction in the experience of having a PET/CT scan.

Predictors of infant positive, negative and self-direct coping during face to face still-face in a Portuguese preterm sample

Past studies found three types of infant coping behaviour during Face-to-Face Still-Face paradigm (FFSF): a Positive Other-Directed Coping; a Negative Other-Directed Coping and a Self-Directed Coping. In the present study, we investigated whether those types of coping styles are predicted by: infants’ physiological responses; maternal representations of their infant’s temperament; maternal interactive behaviour in free play; and infant birth and medical status. The sample consisted of 46, healthy, prematurely born infants and their mothers. At one month, infant heart rate was collected in basal. At three months old (corrected age), infant heart-rate was registered during FFSF episodes. Mothers described their infants’ temperament using a validated Portuguese temperament scale, at infants three months of corrected age. As well, maternal interactive behaviour was evaluated during a free play situation using CARE-Index. Our findings indicate that positive coping behaviours were correlated with gestational birth weight, heart rate (HR), gestational age, and maternal sensitivity in free play. Gestational age and maternal sensitivity predicted Positive Other-Direct Coping behaviours. Moreover, Positive Other-Direct coping was negatively correlated with HR during Still-Face Episode. Self-directed behaviours were correlated with HR during Still-Face Episode and Recover Episode and with maternal controlling/intrusive behaviour. However, only maternal behaviour predicted Self-direct coping. Early social responses seem to be affected by infants’ birth status and by maternal interactive behaviour. Therefore, internal and external factors together contribute to infant ability to cope and to re-engage after stressful social events.

Estudo da sensibilidade materna em díades de risco biológico, ambiental e acumulado

Dissertação apresentada na Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de Mestre em Intervenção Precoce

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF TRACK VIBRATIONS DUE TO VERTICAL STIFFNESS VARIATION IN HIGH-SPEED RAILWAYS

High speed trains, when crossing regions with abrupt changes in vertical stiffness of the track and/or subsoil, may generate excessive ground and track vibrations. There is an urgent need for specific analyses of this problem so as to allow reliable esimates of vibration amplitude. Full understanding of these phenomena will lead to new construction solutions and mitigation of undesirable features. In this paper analytical transient solutions of dynamic response of one-dimensional systems with sudden change of foundation stiffness are derived. Results are expressed in terms of vertical displacement. Sensitivity analysis of the response amplitude is also performed. The analytical expressions presented herein, to the authors’ knowledge, have not been published yet. Although related to one-dimensional cases, they can give useful insight into the problem. Nevertheless, in order to obtain realistic response, vehicle- rail interaction cannot be omitted. Results and conclusions are confirmed using general purpose commercial software ANSYS. In conclusion, this work contributes to a better understanding of the additional vibration phenomenon due to vertical stiffness variation, permitting better control of the train velocity and optimization of the track design.

The sensitivity, specificity and efficiency values of some serological tests used in the diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis

This work reports on the results of double immunodiffusion (ID), counterimmunoelectrophoresis (CIE), complement fixation (CF) and indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) techniques in the serodiagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis. The study was undertaken on four groups of individuals: 46 patients with untreated paracoccidioidomycosis, 22 patients with other deep mycoses, 30 with other infectious diseases (tuberculosis and cutaneous leishmaniasis) and 47 blood donors as negative controls. Data were obtained using Paracoccidioides brasiliensis antigens, i.e.,a yeast culture filtrate for ID, CIE and CF, and a yeast cell suspension for IIF. The sensitivity, specificity and efficiency values were measured according to GALEN & GAMBINO8.The gel precipitation tests (ID and CIE) showed the greatest sensitivity (91.3 and 95.6%, respectively), maximum specificity (100%) and the highest efficiency values when compared to the CF and IIF tests.

Hepatic parasympathetic nerve dysfunction involved in the deregulation of postprandial whole-body insulin sensitivity:a road to diabetes and associated pathologies

FCM: UC Fisiologia - Teses de Doutoramento