Three dimensional finite element simulation of polymer melting and flow in a single-screw extruder : optimization of screw channel geometry

Single-screw extrusion is one of the widely used processing methods in plastics industry, which was the third largest manufacturing industry in the United States in 2007 [5]. In order to optimize the single-screw extrusion process, tremendous efforts have been devoted for development of accurate models in the last fifty years, especially for polymer melting in screw extruders. This has led to a good qualitative understanding of the melting process; however, quantitative predictions of melting from various models often have a large error in comparison to the experimental data. Thus, even nowadays, process parameters and the geometry of the extruder channel for the single-screw extrusion are determined by trial and error. Since new polymers are developed frequently, finding the optimum parameters to extrude these polymers by trial and error is costly and time consuming. In order to reduce the time and experimental work required for optimizing the process parameters and the geometry of the extruder channel for a given polymer, the main goal of this research was to perform a coordinated experimental and numerical investigation of melting in screw extrusion. In this work, a full three-dimensional finite element simulation of the two-phase flow in the melting and metering zones of a single-screw extruder was performed by solving the conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy. The only attempt for such a three-dimensional simulation of melting in screw extruder was more than twenty years back. However, that work had only a limited success because of the capability of computers and mathematical algorithms available at that time. The dramatic improvement of computational power and mathematical knowledge now make it possible to run full 3-D simulations of two-phase flow in single-screw extruders on a desktop PC. In order to verify the numerical predictions from the full 3-D simulations of two-phase flow in single-screw extruders, a detailed experimental study was performed. This experimental study included Maddock screw-freezing experiments, Screw Simulator experiments and material characterization experiments. Maddock screw-freezing experiments were performed in order to visualize the melting profile along the single-screw extruder channel with different screw geometry configurations. These melting profiles were compared with the simulation results. Screw Simulator experiments were performed to collect the shear stress and melting flux data for various polymers. Cone and plate viscometer experiments were performed to obtain the shear viscosity data which is needed in the simulations. An optimization code was developed to optimize two screw geometry parameters, namely, screw lead (pitch) and depth in the metering section of a single-screw extruder, such that the output rate of the extruder was maximized without exceeding the maximum temperature value specified at the exit of the extruder. This optimization code used a mesh partitioning technique in order to obtain the flow domain. The simulations in this flow domain was performed using the code developed to simulate the two-phase flow in single-screw extruders.

Tropospheric ozone and CO over North Atlantic for the past decade

We investigate how declines in US emissions of CO and O3 precursors have impacted the lower free troposphere over the North Atlantic. We use seasonal observations for O3 and CO from the PICO-NARE project for the period covering 2001 to 2010. Observations are used to verify model output generated by the GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model. Additional satellite data for CO from AIRS/Aqua and for O3 from TES/Aura were also used to provide additional comparisons; particularly for fall, winter, and spring when PICO-NARE coverage is sparse. We find GEOS-Chem captures the seasonal cycle for CO and O3 well compared to PICO-NARE data. For CO, GEOS-Chem is biased low, particularly in spring which is in agreement with findings from previous studies. GEOS-Chem is 24.7 +/- 5.2 ppbv (1-σ) low compared to PICO-NARE summer CO data while AIRS is 14.2 +/- 6.6 ppbv high. AIRS does not show nearly as much variation as seen with GEOS-Chem or the Pico data, and goes from being lower than PICO-NARE data in winter and spring, to higher in summer and fall. Both TES and GEOS-Chem match the seasonal ozone cycle well for all seasons when compared with observations. Model results for O3 show GEOS-Chem is 6.67 +/- 2.63 ppbv high compared to PICO-NARE summer measurements and TES was 3.91 +/- 4.2 ppbv higher. Pico data, model results, and AIRS all show declines in CO and O3 for the summer period from 2001 to 2010. Limited availability of TES data prevents us from using it in trend analysis. For summer CO Pico, GEOS-Chem, and AIRS results show declines of 1.32, 0.368, and 0.548 ppbv/year respectively. For summer O3, Pico and GEOS-Chem show declines of -0.726 and -0.583 ppbv/year respectively. In other seasons, both model and AIRS show declining CO, particularly in the fall. GEOS-Chem results show a fall decline of 0.798 ppbv/year and AIRS shows a decline of 0.8372 ppbv/year. Winter and spring CO declines are 0.393 and 0.307 for GEOS-Chem, and 0.455 and 0.566 for AIRS. GEOS-Chem shows declining O3 in other seasons as well; with fall being the season of greatest decrease and winter being the least. Model results for fall, winter, and spring are 0.856, 0.117, and 0.570 ppbv/year respectively. Given the availability of data we are most confident in summer results and thus find that summer CO and O3 have declined in lower free troposphere of the North Atlantic region of the Azores. Sensitivity studies for CO and O3 at Pico were conducted by turning off North American fossil fuel emissions in GEOS-Chem. Model results show that North America fossil fuel emissions contribute 8.57 ppbv CO and 4.03 ppbv O3 to Pico. The magnitude of modeled trends declines in all seasons without North American fossil fuel emissions except for summer CO. The increase in summer CO declines may be due to a decline of 5.24 ppbv/year trend in biomass burning emissions over the study period; this is higher than the 2.33 ppbv/year North American anthropogenic CO model decline. Winter O3 is the only season which goes from showing a negative trend to a positive trend.

COMPUTATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE AEROELASTIC DYNAMICS OF A WIND TURBINE BLADE WITH VARIABLE-SPEED STALL CONTROL

The accuracy of simulating the aerodynamics and structural properties of the blades is crucial in the wind-turbine technology. Hence the models used to implement these features need to be very precise and their level of detailing needs to be high. With the variety of blade designs being developed the models should be versatile enough to adapt to the changes required by every design. We are going to implement a combination of numerical models which are associated with the structural and the aerodynamic part of the simulation using the computational power of a parallel HPC cluster. The structural part models the heterogeneous internal structure of the beam based on a novel implementation of the Generalized Timoshenko Beam Model Technique.. Using this technique the 3-D structure of the blade is reduced into a 1-D beam which is asymptotically equivalent. This reduces the computational cost of the model without compromising its accuracy. This structural model interacts with the Flow model which is a modified version of the Blade Element Momentum Theory. The modified version of the BEM accounts for the large deflections of the blade and also considers the pre-defined structure of the blade. The coning, sweeping of the blade, tilt of the nacelle and the twist of the sections along the blade length are all computed by the model which aren’t considered in the classical BEM theory. Each of these two models provides feedback to the other and the interactive computations lead to more accurate outputs. We successfully implemented the computational models to analyze and simulate the structural and aerodynamic aspects of the blades. The interactive nature of these models and their ability to recompute data using the feedback from each other makes this code more efficient than the commercial codes available. In this thesis we start off with the verification of these models by testing it on the well-known benchmark blade for the NREL-5MW Reference Wind Turbine, an alternative fixed-speed stall-controlled blade design proposed by Delft University, and a novel alternative design that we proposed for a variable-speed stall-controlled turbine, which offers the potential for more uniform power control and improved annual energy production.. To optimize the power output of the stall-controlled blade we modify the existing designs and study their behavior using the aforementioned aero elastic model.

THE USE OF LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MATERIALS IN MANUFACTURING

This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.

Marker-Based Embodied Interaction for Handheld Augmented Reality Games

This article deals with embodied user interfaces for handheld augmented reality games, which consist of both physical and virtual components. We have developed a number of spatial interaction techniques that optically capture the device's movement and orientation relative to a visual marker. Such physical interactions in 3-D space enable manipulative control of mobile games. In addition to acting as a physical controller that recognizes multiple game-dependent gestures, the mobile device augments the camera view with graphical overlays. We describe three game prototypes that use ubiquitous product packaging and other passive media as backgrounds for handheld augmentation. The prototypes can be realized on widely available off-the-shelf hardware and require only minimal setup and infrastructure support.

Fossilierung in Echtzeit

Die Kunstgeschichte hat seit ihrer Einsetzung als universitäres Lehrfach auf eine Erweiterung ihrer Bestände und Themengebiete hingearbeitet. Stärker als andere Disziplinen war sie dabei bald auf die Möglichkeiten der Bildreproduktion angewiesen. Sie kommuniziert und popularisiert ihre Inhalte durch Lichtbilder und Kataloge und hat auch an der Entwicklung entsprechender Medien, vom Bilderalbum bis zur Fotodokumentation, mitgewirkt. Mittlerweile erwirbt ein Kunsthistoriker immer mehr Kenntnisse auch auf der Basis reproduzierter, mobiler Aufnahmen von Kunstwerken entlegenster Orte und verdichtet diese zu einem abstrakten Kanon kulturellen Erbes. Im digitalen Raum könnte nun die Gefahr bestehen, dass die bloße Fortschreibung dieser Praxis, zumal an eine anonyme Öffentlichkeit gerichtet, zu einer Verkrustung überkommener Sehweisen führt; der Einsatz von digitalen Medien würde dann keine methodische Innovation darstellen, sondern vielmehr das Gegenteil bewirken. Auf der anderen Seite vollziehen sich Wissenstransformationen nicht allein durch die Anwendung bahnbrechender Technologien; sie bedürfen auch der entsprechenden institutionellen Einbettung. Der Aufbau simpler Kommunikationswege wie E-Mail, der Einsatz erprobter Techniken wie der 3-D-Visualisierung oder die Gestaltung kostspieliger Datenbanken und Informationssysteme verändert - graduell, aber dauerhaft - die bestehenden Fachstrukturen und Denkgewohnheiten. Nur ein Bruchteil der Fragen, die mit dem Einsatz des Computers einhergehen, sind primär technischer Natur. Die Diskussion neuer Medien könnte zu einem professionelleren Selbstverständnis der kunstgeschichtlichen Forschung beitragen, wenn Fragen des Managements, der Projektgestaltung oder der Einwerbung von Drittmitteln nicht länger als Nebensachen abgetan werden; auch sie gehören zu einer wissenschaftlichen Methodik.

Isotope fractionation of selenium by biomethylation in microcosm incubations of soil

The natural abundance of stable Se isotopes in methylselenides reflects sources and formation conditions of methylselenides. We tested the effects of (i) different inorganic Se species spiked to soils and (ii) different soil samples on the extent of fungal biomethylation of Se and the Se isotope ratios (δ82/76Se) in methylselenides. Furthermore, we assessed the decrease of dissolved, bioavailable Se during three days of equilibration of the soils with Se-enriched solutions. We conducted closed microcosm experiments containing soil spiked with Se(IV) or Se(VI), a growth medium, and the fungus species Alternaria alternata for 11 d. The concentrations and isotope ratios of Se were determined in all components of the microcosm with multicollector ICP-MS. The equilibration of the spiked Se(IV) and Se(VI) for 3 d resulted in a decrease of dissolved, bioavailable Se concentrations by 32 to 44% and 8 to 14%, respectively. Very little isotope fractionation occurred during this phase, and it can be attributed to mixing of the added Se with the pre-existing Se in the soils and minor Se(IV) reduction in one experiment. In two of the incubated soils – moderately acidic roadside and garden soils – between 9.1 and 30% of the supplied Se(IV) and 1.7% of the supplied Se(VI) were methylated while in a strongly acidic forest soil no Se methylation occurred. The methylselenides derived from Se(IV) were strongly depleted in 82Se (δ82/76Se = − 3.3 to − 4.5‰) compared with the soil (0.16–0.45‰) and the added Se(IV) (0.20‰). The methylselenide yield of the incubations with Se(VI) was too small for isotope measurements. Our results demonstrate that Se source species and soil properties influence the extent of Se biomethylation and that the produced methylselenides contain isotopically light Se.

Flow disturbances in stent-related coronary evaginations: a computational fluid-dynamic simulation study

Aims: Angiographic ectasias and aneurysms in stented segments have been associated with late stent thrombosis. Using optical coherence tomography (OCT), some stented segments show coronary evaginations reminiscent of ectasias. The purpose of this study was to explore, using computational fluid-dynamic (CFD) simulations, whether OCT-detected coronary evaginations can induce local changes in blood flow. Methods and results: OCT-detected evaginations are defined as outward bulges in the luminal vessel contour between struts, with the depth of the bulge exceeding the actual strut thickness. Evaginations can be characterised cross ectionally by depth and along the stented segment by total length. Assuming an ellipsoid shape, we modelled 3-D evaginations with different sizes by varying the depth from 0.2-1.0 mm, and the length from 1-9 mm. For the flow simulation we used average flow velocity data from non-diseased coronary arteries. The change in flow with varying evagination sizes was assessed using a particle tracing test where the particle transit time within the segment with evagination was compared with that of a control vessel. The presence of the evagination caused a delayed particle transit time which increased with the evagination size. The change in flow consisted locally of recirculation within the evagination, as well as flow deceleration due to a larger lumen - seen as a deflection of flow towards the evagination. Conclusions: CFD simulation of 3-D evaginations and blood flow suggests that evaginations affect flow locally, with a flow disturbance that increases with increasing evagination size.

Accuracy and reproducibility of aortic annulus sizing using a dedicated three-dimensional computed tomography reconstruction tool in patients evaluated for transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Aims: To evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of aortic annulus sizing using a multislice computed tomography (MSCT) based aortic root reconstruction tool compared with conventional imaging among patients evaluated for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Methods and results: Patients referred for TAVR underwent standard preprocedural assessment of aortic annulus parameters using MSCT, angiography and transoesophageal echocardiography (TEE). Three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of MSCT images of the aortic root was performed using 3mensio (3mensio Medical Imaging BV, Bilthoven, The Netherlands), allowing for semi-automated delineation of the annular plane and assessment of annulus perimeter, area, maximum, minimum and virtual diameters derived from area and perimeter (aVD and pVD). A total of 177 patients were enrolled. We observed a good inter-observer variability of 3-D reconstruction assessments with concordance coefficients for agreement of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.93) and 0.91 (0.88-0.94) for annulus perimeter and area assessments, respectively. 3-D derived pVD and aVD correlated very closely with a concordance coefficient of 0.97 (0.96-0.98) with a mean difference of 0.5±0.3 mm (pVD-aVD). 3-D derived pVD showed the best, but moderate concordance with diameters obtained from coronal MSCT (0.67, 0.56-0.75; 0.3±1.8 mm), and the lowest concordance with diameters obtained from TEE (0.42, 0.31-0.52; 1.9±1.9 mm). Conclusions: MSCT-based 3-D reconstruction of the aortic annulus using the 3mensio software enables accurate and reproducible assessment of aortic annulus dimensions.

Estimation of tool pose based on force-density correlation during robotic drilling

The application of image-guided systems with or without support by surgical robots relies on the accuracy of the navigation process, including patient-to-image registration. The surgeon must carry out the procedure based on the information provided by the navigation system, usually without being able to verify its correctness beyond visual inspection. Misleading surrogate parameters such as the fiducial registration error are often used to describe the success of the registration process, while a lack of methods describing the effects of navigation errors, such as those caused by tracking or calibration, may prevent the application of image guidance in certain accuracy-critical interventions. During minimally invasive mastoidectomy for cochlear implantation, a direct tunnel is drilled from the outside of the mastoid to a target on the cochlea based on registration using landmarks solely on the surface of the skull. Using this methodology, it is impossible to detect if the drill is advancing in the correct direction and that injury of the facial nerve will be avoided. To overcome this problem, a tool localization method based on drilling process information is proposed. The algorithm estimates the pose of a robot-guided surgical tool during a drilling task based on the correlation of the observed axial drilling force and the heterogeneous bone density in the mastoid extracted from 3-D image data. We present here one possible implementation of this method tested on ten tunnels drilled into three human cadaver specimens where an average tool localization accuracy of 0.29 mm was observed.

Effects of beta-alanine supplementation and interval training on physiological determinants of severe exercise performance.

INTRODUCTION We aimed to manipulate physiological determinants of severe exercise performance. We hypothesized that (1) beta-alanine supplementation would increase intramuscular carnosine and buffering capacity and dampen acidosis during severe cycling, (2) that high-intensity interval training (HIT) would enhance aerobic energy contribution during severe cycling, and (3) that HIT preceded by beta-alanine supplementation would have greater benefits. METHODS Sixteen active men performed incremental cycling tests and 90-s severe (110 % peak power) cycling tests at three time points: before and after oral supplementation with either beta-alanine or placebo, and after an 11-days HIT block (9 sessions, 4 × 4 min), which followed supplementation. Carnosine was assessed via MR spectroscopy. Energy contribution during 90-s severe cycling was estimated from the O2 deficit. Biopsies from m. vastus lateralis were taken before and after the test. RESULTS Beta-alanine increased leg muscle carnosine (32 ± 13 %, d = 3.1). Buffering capacity and incremental cycling were unaffected, but during 90-s severe cycling, beta-alanine increased aerobic energy contribution (1.4 ± 1.3 %, d = 0.5), concurrent with reduced O2 deficit (-5.0 ± 5.0 %, d = 0.6) and muscle lactate accumulation (-23 ± 30 %, d = 0.9), while having no effect on pH. Beta-alanine also enhanced motivation and perceived state during the HIT block. There were no between-group differences in adaptations to the training block, namely increased buffering capacity (+7.9 ± 11.9 %, p = 0.04, d = 0.6, n = 14) and glycogen storage (+30 ± 47 %, p = 0.04, d = 0.5, n = 16). CONCLUSIONS Beta-alanine did not affect buffering considerably, but has beneficial effects on severe exercise metabolism as well as psychological parameters during intense training phases.

β-Glucan Antigenemia Anticipates Diagnosis of Blood Culture–Negative Intraabdominal Candidiasis

Rationale: Life-threatening intraabdominal candidiasis (IAC) occurs in 30 to 40% of high-risk surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Although early IAC diagnosis is crucial, blood cultures are negative, and the role of Candida score/colonization indexes is not established. Objectives: The aim of this prospective Fungal Infection Network of Switzerland (FUNGINOS) cohort study was to assess accuracy of 1,3-β-d-glucan (BG) antigenemia for diagnosis of IAC. Methods: Four hundred thirty-four consecutive adults with abdominal surgery or acute pancreatitis and ICU stay 72 hours or longer were screened: 89 (20.5%) at high risk for IAC were studied (68 recurrent gastrointestinal tract perforation, 21 acute necrotizing pancreatitis). Diagnostic accuracy of serum BG (Fungitell), Candida score, and colonization indexes was compared. Measurements and Main Results: Fifty-eight of 89 (65%) patients were colonized by Candida; 29 of 89 (33%) presented IAC (27 of 29 with negative blood cultures). Nine hundred twenty-one sera were analyzed (9/patient): median BG was 253 pg/ml (46–9,557) in IAC versus 99 pg/ml (8–440) in colonization (P < 0.01). Sensitivity and specificity of two consecutive BG measurements greater than or equal to 80 pg/ml were 65 and 78%, respectively. In recurrent gastrointestinal tract perforation it was 75 and 77% versus 90 and 38% (Candida score ≥ 3), 79 and 34% (colonization index ≥ 0.5), and 54 and 63% (corrected colonization index ≥ 0.4), respectively. BG positivity anticipated IAC diagnosis (5 d) and antifungal therapy (6 d). Severe sepsis/septic shock and death occurred in 10 of 11 (91%) and 4 of 11 (36%) patients with BG 400 pg/ml or more versus 5 of 18 (28%, P = 0.002) and 1 of 18 (6%, P = 0.05) with BG measurement less than 400 pg/ml. β-Glucan decreased in IAC responding to therapy and increased in nonresponse. Conclusions: BG antigenemia is superior to Candida score and colonization indexes and anticipates diagnosis of blood culture–negative IAC. This proof-of-concept observation in strictly selected high-risk surgical ICU patients deserves investigation of BG-driven preemptive therapy.

The influence of recent major crater impacts on the surrounding surfaces of (21) Lutetia

We present 3-D simulations of impacts into Asteroid 21 Lutetia, the subject of a fly-by by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission to Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Using a 3-D shape model of the asteroid, impacts of sizes sufficient to reproduce the observed craters in Lutetia's North Polar Crater Cluster (NPCC) as observed by the OSIRIS experiment have been simulated using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics technique. The asteroid itself has been modelled both as a homogeneous body and as a body with an iron core.

Characterization of granite matrix porosity and pore-space geometry by in situ and laboratory methods

Most available studies of interconnected matrix porosity of crystalline rocks are based on laboratory investigations; that is, work on samples that have undergone stress relaxation and were affected by drilling and sample preparation. The extrapolation of the results to in situ conditions is therefore associated with considerable uncertainty, and this was the motivation to conduct the ‘in situ Connected Porosity’ experiment at the Grimsel Test Site (Central Swiss Alps). An acrylic resin doped with fluorescent agents was used to impregnate the microporous granitic matrix in situ around an injection borehole, and samples were obtained by overcoring. The 3-D structure of the porespace, represented by microcracks, was studied by U-stage fluorescence microscopy. Petrophysical methods, including the determination of porosity, permeability and P -wave velocity, were also applied. Investigations were conducted both on samples that were impregnated in situ and on non-impregnated samples, so that natural features could be distinguished from artefacts. The investigated deformed granites display complex microcrack populations representing a polyphase deformation at varying conditions. The crack population is dominated by open cleavage cracks in mica and grain boundary cracks. The porosity of non-impregnated samples lies slightly above 1 per cent, which is 2–2.5 times higher than the in situ porosity obtained for impregnated samples. Measurements of seismic velocities (Vp ) on spherical rock samples as a function of confining pressure, spatial direction and water saturation for both non-impregnated and impregnated samples provide further constraints on the distinction between natural and induced crack types. The main conclusions are that (1) an interconnected network of microcracks exists in the whole granitic matrix, irrespective of the distance to ductile and brittle shear zones, and (2) conventional laboratory methods overestimate the matrix porosity. Calculations of contaminant transport through fractured media often rely on matrix diffusion as a retardation mechanism.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.