Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

Decision making: singin' in the brain.

Which neurons in the brain "decide" to initiate particular behaviors in response to sensory information? In this issue of Neuron, two papers (Kohatsu et al. and von Philipsborn et al.) identify candidates in the courtship circuitry of Drosophila. The activity of these neurons is both regulated by sex pheromones and necessary and sufficient to trigger male love song.

Weber's law in decision making: integrating behavioral data in humans with a neurophysiological model

Recent single-cell studies in monkeys (Romo et al., 2004) show that the activity of neurons in the ventral premotor cortex covaries with the animal's decisions in a perceptual comparison task regarding the frequency of vibrotactile events. The firing rate response of these neurons was dependent only on the frequency differences between the two applied vibrations, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We present a biophysically realistic neurodynamical model that can account for the most relevant characteristics of this decision-making-related neural activity. One of the nontrivial predictions of this model is that Weber's law will underlie the perceptual discrimination behavior. We confirmed this prediction in behavioral tests of vibrotactile discrimination in humans and propose a computational explanation of perceptual discrimination that accounts naturally for the emergence of Weber's law. We conclude that the neurodynamical mechanisms and computational principles underlying the decision-making processes in this perceptual discrimination task are consistent with a fluctuation-driven scenario in a multistable regime.

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) as a screening tool for excessive drinking in primary care: reliability and validity of a French version.

BACKGROUND: Excessive drinking is a major problem in Western countries. AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) is a 10-item questionnaire developed as a transcultural screening tool to detect excessive alcohol consumption and dependence in primary health care settings. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study is to validate a French version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). METHODS: We conducted a validation cross-sectional study in three French-speaking areas (Paris, Geneva and Lausanne). We examined psychometric properties of AUDIT as its internal consistency, and its capacity to correctly diagnose alcohol abuse or dependence as defined by DSM-IV and to detect hazardous drinking (defined as alcohol intake >30 g pure ethanol per day for men and >20 g of pure ethanol per day for women). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and Receiver Operator Characteristic curves. Finally, we compared the ability of AUDIT to accurately detect "alcohol abuse/dependence" with that of CAGE and MAST. RESULTS: 1207 patients presenting to outpatient clinics (Switzerland, n = 580) or general practitioners' (France, n = 627) successively completed CAGE, MAST and AUDIT self-administered questionnaires, and were independently interviewed by a trained addiction specialist. AUDIT showed a good capacity to discriminate dependent patients (with AUDIT > or =13 for males, sensitivity 70.1%, specificity 95.2%, PPV 85.7%, NPV 94.7% and for females sensitivity 94.7%, specificity 98.2%, PPV 100%, NPV 99.8%); and hazardous drinkers (with AUDIT > or =7, for males sensitivity 83.5%, specificity 79.9%, PPV 55.0%, NPV 82.7% and with AUDIT > or =6 for females, sensitivity 81.2%, specificity 93.7%, PPV 64.0%, NPV 72.0%). AUDIT gives better results than MAST and CAGE for detecting "Alcohol abuse/dependence" as showed on the comparative ROC curves. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT questionnaire remains a good screening instrument for French-speaking primary care.

The validity of clinical diagnoses of dementia in a group of consecutively autopsied memory clinic patients.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies show that up to 10% of individuals aged 65 years and older suffer from dementia, most commonly from dementia of the Alzheimer Type (DAT) (1). Clinicopathological studies are critical to our understanding of this disease and improving the accuracy of clinical diagnoses. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to examine the validity of clinical diagnoses of DAT, to determine the prevalence of different forms of dementia in this sample, and to investigate the relationship between age at death and polymorbidity. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Clinical data were available from 221 patients who had been examined at the Basel Memory Clinic between 1986 and 1996. From this population, 34% (75 patients) were autopsied in the Department of Pathology, University Hospital Basel, and neuropathological examinations were additionally performed on 62 (83%) of these patients. Clinical and neuropathological data were retrospectively compared. RESULTS: 67.8% of the neuropathologically examined patients received a definitive diagnosis of AD (Alzheimer's disease), vascular dementia (VaD) or mixed dementia (AD and VaD). AD alone or with other histopathological hallmarks of dementia was the most prevalent neuropathological diagnosis (63%). VaD was deemed the only cause of dementia in only 4.8% of patients. The sensitivity for DAT was 75.9%, the specificity 60.6%. Increasing age was associated with an increasing number of clinical and neuropathological diagnoses. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity and specificity of the clinical diagnoses of DAT found in our study are similar to previous reports (2-5). Older patients had more etiologies of their dementia than younger patients. This study reaffirms the need for internationally accepted criteria for clinical and neuropathological diagnoses, as well as further clinical-neuropathological investigations to further refine the clinical diagnostic process.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Project Success through Effective Decisions: Case Studies on Project Goal Setting, Success Evaluation and Managerial Decision Making

The objective of the thesis is to structure and model the factors that contribute to and can be used in evaluating project success. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of three research topics. The goal setting process, success evaluation and decision-making process are studied in the context of a project, business unitand its business environment. To achieve the objective three research questionsare posed. These are 1) how to set measurable project goals, 2) how to evaluateproject success and 3) how to affect project success with managerial decisions.The main theoretical contribution comes from deriving a synthesis of these research topics which have mostly been discussed apart from each other in prior research. The research strategy of the study has features from at least the constructive, nomothetical, and decision-oriented research approaches. This strategy guides the theoretical and empirical part of the study. Relevant concepts and a framework are composed on the basis of the prior research contributions within the problem area. A literature review is used to derive constructs of factors withinthe framework. They are related to project goal setting, success evaluation, and decision making. On the basis of this, the case study method is applied to complement the framework. The empirical data includes one product development program, three construction projects, as well as one organization development, hardware/software, and marketing project in their contexts. In two of the case studiesthe analytic hierarchy process is used to formulate a hierarchical model that returns a numerical evaluation of the degree of project success. It has its origin in the solution idea which in turn has its foundation in the notion of projectsuccess. The achieved results are condensed in the form of a process model thatintegrates project goal setting, success evaluation and decision making. The process of project goal setting is analysed as a part of an open system that includes a project, the business unit and its competitive environment. Four main constructs of factors are suggested. First, the project characteristics and requirements are clarified. The second and the third construct comprise the components of client/market segment attractiveness and sources of competitive advantage. Together they determine the competitive position of a business unit. Fourth, the relevant goals and the situation of a business unit are clarified to stress their contribution to the project goals. Empirical evidence is gained on the exploitation of increased knowledge and on the reaction to changes in the business environment during a project to ensure project success. The relevance of a successful project to a company or a business unit tends to increase the higher the reference level of project goals is set. However, normal performance or sometimes performance below this normal level is intentionally accepted. Success measures make project success quantifiable. There are result-oriented, process-oriented and resource-oriented success measures. The study also links result measurements to enablers that portray the key processes. The success measures can be classified into success domains determining the areas on which success is assessed. Empiricalevidence is gained on six success domains: strategy, project implementation, product, stakeholder relationships, learning situation and company functions. However, some project goals, like safety, can be assessed using success measures that belong to two success domains. For example a safety index is used for assessing occupational safety during a project, which is related to project implementation. Product safety requirements, in turn, are connected to the product characteristics and thus to the product-related success domain. Strategic success measures can be used to weave the project phases together. Empirical evidence on their static nature is gained. In order-oriented projects the project phases are oftencontractually divided into different suppliers or contractors. A project from the supplier's perspective can represent only a part of the ¿whole project¿ viewed from the client's perspective. Therefore static success measures are mostly used within the contractually agreed project scope and duration. Proof is also acquired on the dynamic use of operational success measures. They help to focus on the key issues during each project phase. Furthermore, it is shown that the original success domains and success measures, their weights and target values can change dynamically. New success measures can replace the old ones to correspond better with the emphasis of the particular project phase. This adjustment concentrates on the key decision milestones. As a conclusion, the study suggests a combination of static and dynamic success measures. Their linkage to an incentive system can make the project management proactive, enable fast feedback and enhancethe motivation of the personnel. It is argued that the sequence of effective decisions is closely linked to the dynamic control of project success. According to the used definition, effective decisions aim at adequate decision quality and decision implementation. The findings support that project managers construct and use a chain of key decision milestones to evaluate and affect success during aproject. These milestones can be seen as a part of the business processes. Different managers prioritise the key decision milestones to a varying degree. Divergent managerial perspectives, power, responsibilities and involvement during a project offer some explanation for this. Finally, the study introduces the use ofHard Gate and Soft Gate decision milestones. The managers may use the former milestones to provide decision support on result measurements and ad hoc critical conditions. In the latter milestones they may make intermediate success evaluation also on the basis of other types of success measures, like process and resource measures.

Interobserver agreement and validity of bedside 'positive signs' for functional weakness, sensory and gait disorders in conversion disorder: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Conversion disorder (CD) is no longer a diagnosis of exclusion. The new DSM-V criteria highlight the importance of 'positive signs' on neurological examination. Only few signs have been validated, and little is known about their reliability. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to examine the clinical value of bedside positive signs in the diagnosis of CD presenting with weakness, gait or sensory symptoms by assessing their specificity, sensitivity and their inter-rater reliability. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Standardised video recorded neurological examinations were performed in 20 consecutive patients with CD and 20 'organic' controls. Ten previously validated sensory and motor signs were grouped in a scale. Thirteen additional motor/sensory 'positive signs', 14 gait patterns and 1 general sign were assessed in a pilot validation study. In addition, two blinded independent neurologists rated the video recordings to assess the inter-rater reliability (Cohen's κ) of each sign. RESULTS: A score of ≥4/14 on the sensory motor scale showed a 100% specificity (CI 85 to 100) and a 95% sensitivity (CI 85 to 100). Among the additional tested signs, 10 were significantly more frequent in CD than controls. The interobserver agreement was acceptable for 23/38 signs (2 excellent, 10 good, 11 moderate). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that six bedside 'positive signs' are highly specific for CD with good-excellent inter-rater reliability; we propose to consider them as 'highly reliable signs'. In addition 13 signs could be considered as 'reliable signs' and six further signs as 'suggestive signs' while all others should be used with caution until further validation is available.

Collective decision making in a heterogeneous environment: Lasius niger colonies preferentially forage at easy to learn locations

Many ants forage in complex environments and use a combination of trail pheromone information and route memory to navigate between food sources and the nest. Previous research has shown that foraging routes differ in how easily they are learned. In particular, it is easier to learn feeding locations that are reached by repeating (e.g. left-left or right-right) than alternating choices (left-right or right-left) along a route with two T-bifurcations. This raises the hypothesis that the learnability of the feeding sites may influence overall colony foraging patterns. We studied this in the mass-recruiting ant Lasius niger. We used mazes with two T-bifurcations, and allowed colonies to exploit two equidistant food sources that differed in how easily their locations were learned. In experiment 1, learnability was manipulated by using repeating versus alternating routes from nest to feeder. In experiment 2, we added visual landmarks along the route to one food source. Our results suggest that colonies preferentially exploited the feeding site that was easier to learn. This was the case even if the more difficult to learn feeding site was discovered first. Furthermore, we show that these preferences were at least partly caused by lower error rates (experiment 1) and greater foraging speeds (experiment 2) of foragers visiting the more easily learned feeder locations. Our results indicate that the learnability of feeding sites is an important factor influencing collective foraging patterns of ant colonies under more natural conditions, given that in natural environments foragers often face multiple bifurcations on their way to food sources.

Training primary care physicians in shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening : Insights from the first statewide colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland

Background: The State of Vaud has launched the first population-based, organized, colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland for the population aged 50 to 69. Each primary care physician (PCP) has been invited to participate in an interactive session preparing them to enroll patients in the screening program. We aimed at testing the impact of an interactive seminar for PCPs on their intention to discuss the options of no screening, screening with the fecal-immunological test (FIT) and colonoscopy. We measured attitude, intentions and knowledge through questionnaires filled by PCPs before and after a 2.5 hour-long interactive seminar. The main outcome was the proportion of physicians foreseeing to offer coloscopy vs FIT on an equal basis. Physicians estimated the proportion of their patients prescribed a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) vs coloscopy over the months before the seminar and after the interactive seminar. We used a clinical vignette to test for knowledge about screening indications. The interactive seminar included powerpoint presentations with quizzes and clickers, an 8-minute video presenting a shared decision making (SDM) consultation around CRC screening and distribution of educational materials such as a SDM decision aid and background epidemiological information.

The Role of Logistics as a Competitiveness Factor when Entering New Markets

Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on löytää halvin tapa kohdeyrityksen tuotteiden saamiseksi määritellyille kohdemarkkinoille. Logistiset kustannukset ovat erityisen tärkeässä asemassa esimerkkitoimialalla, ja käytettävissä olevien logististen ratkaisujen kirjo tekee tehtävästä erityisen haastavan. Yrityksen ja teollisuudenalan erityispiirteiden esittelyn jälkeen valitaan sopiva tapa päästä markkinoille, minkä lisäksi pohditaan erilaisia kilpailustrategioita yrityksen aikaisempien kokemusten ja teoreettisen käsittelyn pohjalta. Tämä pohdinta on erilaisten analyysimenetelmien esittelyn lisäksi työn empiirisen osan taustalla. Logistiikkaympäristön ymmärtäminen ja sen tarjoamien mahdollisuuksien tunnistaminen ovat tärkeimmällä sijalla koko tutkimuksen ajan. Työssä tarkastellaan myös vientilogistiikan ja kohdemarkkinoiden erityispiirteitä, joita sovelletaan harkitsemisenarvoisiin kuljetustapoihin. Mahdollisten logististen ratkaisujen kustannusrakenteen ja kilpailukyvyn selvittämiseksi päätöksenteon tueksi luodaan yksilölliset vuokaaviot yrityksen omien kokemusten ja eri logistiikkapalvelujen tarjoajien lausuntojen perusteella. Näin voidaan edelleen tunnistaa mielekkäimmät logistiset ketjut ja arvioida niiden kustannustehokkuutta sekä suorien logististen että laatukustannusten suhteen. Lisäksi esimerkkien avulla tarkastellaan mahdollisuuksia benchmarkkaukseen. Työn lopuksi suositellaan johtopäätösten pohjalta tulevia toimenpiteitä, jotta myös jatkossa saataisiin aikaan vastaavaa pohdintaa ja toimintaa.

Validity of the FACIT-Sp to assess spiritual well-being in elderly patients

Among instruments measuring spiritual well-being, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual well-being (FACIT-Sp-12) is the most widely used instrument in research. It has been validated in patients suffering from cancer or HIV/AIDS, but has rarely been used in elderly patients. The objectives of this study were to determine the psychometric properties and suitability of the FACIT-Spto assess spiritual well-being in hospitalized elderly patients. This cross-sectional study uses a mixed method approach. Subjects were patients (N = 208), aged 65 years and older, consecutively admitted in post-acute rehabilitation. Psychometric properties of the FACITSp were investigated. The internal structure of the FACIT-Sp (factor structure and internal consistency) was assessed. Convergent validity of the FACIT-Sp was assessed using the Spiritual Distress Assessment Tool (SDAT), the question "Are you at peace?" and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Predictive validity was assessed using length of stay (LOS) and discharge destination. Understanding and interpretation of FACIT-Sp items were consecutively assessed in a sub-sample of 135 patients. Results show that FACIT-Sp scores ranged from 7 to 46 (mean 29.6 ± 7.8); 23.1% of the patients had high spiritual well-being. Cronbach's α was g ood ( 0.85). Item-to-total correlations were all significant (0.34 to 0.73). Principal component analyses performed with 2 or 3 factors were only moderately consistent with previous work. FACIT-Sp correlated with SDAT, "Are you at peace?" and GDS (Rho = −0.45, P < 0.001; 0.51, P < 0.001 and −0.38, P < 0.001). No association was found with LOS or discharge destination. Spontaneous comments about one or more FACIT-Sp items were made by 97/135 (71.9%). Specifically, items that address purpose and meaning in life were frequently found difficult to answer. Analyses suggest that the FACIT-Sp may underestimate spiritual well-being in older patients. In conclusion, despite having acceptable psychometric properties, the FACIT-Sp presents limitations for measurement of spiritual well-being in hospitalized elderly patients.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.