Qualifikationsnachfrage und Arbeitsmarkteintritt in der Schweiz: Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel oder Arbeitslosigkeit

Berufsorientierte Bildungssysteme sind auf die Vermittlung von spezialisierten beruflichen Qualifikationen ausgelegt. Werden diese nach Abschluss einer beruflichen Grundbildung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wenig nachgefragt, riskieren die Absolventen, die erworbenen berufsspezifischen Qualifikationen nicht verwerten zu können. Dies trifft nicht nur zu, wenn Arbeitsmarkteinsteiger arbeitslos werden, sondern auch, wenn sie den Beruf wechseln müssen. Für die drei verschiedenen Optionen des Arbeitsmarkteinstiegs – Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel und Arbeitslosigkeit – wird erstens untersucht, welche Bedeutung das individuell passende und das fachfremde Stellenangebot hat. Zweitens wird analysiert, wie eine unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Nachfrage nach fachspezifischen Qualifikationen die Bedeutung ausbildungsbezogener und individueller Merkmale für den Berufseinstieg verändert. Die Schweiz mit ihrem berufsorientierten Bildungssystem und berufsfachlich segmentieren Arbeitsmarkt dient als empirische Referenz. Die multinominalen logistischen Regressionsmodelle basieren auf den Daten des Schweizer Jugendpanels PISA2000/TREE. Die Individualdaten von Lehrabgänger werden auf Berufsebene, zeitpunkt- und regionsspezifisch mit dem individuell passenden und fachfremden Stellenangebot verknüpft, das auf den Stelleninseratendaten des Stellenmarktmonitors Schweiz (SMM) beruht. Dank dieser Verknüpfung von Angebot und Nachfrage nach beruflichen Qualifikationen auf der Mikroebene kann zum ersten Mal die grundlegende Bedeutung der Personalnachfrage für den Berufseinstieg nachgewiesen werden.

Property Condition Disclosure Law: Does 'Seller Tell All' Matter in Property Values?

At the time when at least two-thirds of the US states have already mandated some form of seller's property condition disclosure statement and there is a movement in this direction nationally, this paper examines the impact of seller's property condition disclosure law on the residential real estate values, the information asymmetry in housing transactions and shift of risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers, and attempts to ascertain the factors that lead to adoption of the disclosur law. The analytical structure employs parametric panel data models, semi-parametric propensity score matching models, and an event study framework using a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004. Exploiting the MSA level variation in house prices, the study finds that the average seller may be able to fetch a higher price (about three to four percent) for the house if she furnishes a state-mandated seller's property condition disclosure statement to the buyer.

Cost Improvements, Returns to Scale, and Cost Inefficiencies for Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper extends the existing research on real estate investment trust (REIT) operating efficiencies. We estimate stochastic-frontier, panel-data models specifying a translog cost function. The specified model updates the cost frontier with new information as it becomes available over time. The model can identify frontier cost improvements, returns to scale, and cost inefficiencies over time. The results disagree with most previous research in that we find no evidence of scale economies and some evidence of scale diseconomies. Moreover, we also generally find smaller inefficiencies than those shown by other REIT studies. Contrary to previous research, higher leverage associates with more efficiency.

Macroeconomic Rationality and Lucas' Misperceptions Model: Further Evidence from Forty-One Countries

Several researchers have examined Lucas's misperceptions model as well as various propositions derived from it within a cross-section empirical framework. The cross-section approach imposes a single monetary policy regime for the entire period. Our paper innovates on existing tests of those rational expectations propositions by allowing the simultaneous effect of monetary and short run aggregate supply (oil price) shocks on output behavior and the employment of advanced panel econometric techniques. Our empirical findings, for a sample of 41 countries over 1949 to 1999, provide evidence in favor of the majority of rational expectations propositions.

A Dynamic Stochastic Frontier Production Model with Time-Varying Efficiency

In this paper we introduce technical efficiency via the intercept that evolve over time as a AR(1) process in a stochastic frontier (SF) framework in a panel data framework. Following are the distinguishing features of the model. First, the model is dynamic in nature. Second, it can separate technical inefficiency from fixed firm-specific effects which are not part of inefficiency. Third, the model allows one to estimate technical change separate from change in technical efficiency. We propose the ML method to estimate the parameters of the model. Finally, we derive expressions to calculate/predict technical inefficiency (efficiency).

Which School Attributes Matter? The Influence of School District Performance and Demographic Composition on Property Values

Increasing levels of segregation in American schools raises the question: do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition? This paper uses Connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and explanatory variables that include school district performance and demographic attributes, such as racial and ethnic composition of the student body. Town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables. The effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long run changes, which are more likely to be capitalized into prices. The study finds strong evidence that increases in percent Hispanic has a negative effect on housing prices in Connecticut, but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values. Evidence is also found to suggest that student test scores have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years while the importance of percent Hispanic has declined. Finally, the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes.

Relationship between dietary patterns and body mass index in Hispanic children ages 4--19 years of age

Background. In over 30 years, the prevalence of overweight for children and adolescents has increased across the United States (Barlow et al., 2007; Ogden, Flegal, Carroll, & Johnson, 2002). Childhood obesity is linked with adverse physiological and psychological issues in youth and affects ethnic/minority populations in disproportionate rates (Barlow et al., 2007; Butte et al., 2006; Butte, Cai, Cole, Wilson, Fisher, Zakeri, Ellis, & Comuzzie, 2007). More importantly, overweight in children and youth tends to track into adulthood (McNaughton, Ball, Mishra, & Crawford, 2008; Ogden et al., 2002). Childhood obesity affects body functions such as the cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and endocrine systems, including emotional health (Barlow et al., 2007, Ogden et al., 2002). Several dietary factors have been associated with the development of obesity in children; however, these factors have not been fully elucidated, especially in ethnic/minority children. In particular, few studies have been done to determine the effects of different meal patterns on the development of obesity in children. Purpose. The purpose of the study is to examine the relationships between daily proportions of energy consumed and energy derived from fat across breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snack, and obesity among Hispanic children and adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional design was used to evaluate the relationship between dietary patterns and overweight status in Hispanic children and adolescents 4-19 years of age who participated in the Viva La Familia Study. The goal of the Viva La Familia Study was to evaluate genetic and environmental factors affecting childhood obesity and its co-morbidities in the Hispanic population (Butte et al., 2006, 2007). The study enrolled 1030 Hispanic children and adolescents from 319 families and examined factors related to increased body weight by focusing on a multilevel analysis of extensive sociodemographic, genetic, metabolic, and behavioral data. Baseline dietary intakes of the children were collected using 24-hour recalls, and body mass index was calculated from measured height and weight, and classified using the CDC standards. Dietary data were analyzed using a GEE population-averaged panel-data model with a cluster variable family identifier to include possible correlations within related data sets. A linear regression model was used to analyze associations of dietary patterns using possible covariates, and to examine the percentage of daily energy coming from breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snack while adjusting for age, sex, and BMI z-score. Random-effects logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship of the dietary variables with obesity status and to understand if the percent energy intake (%EI) derived from fat from all meals (breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks) affected obesity. Results. Older children (age 4-19 years) consumed a higher percent of energy at lunch and dinner and less percent energy from snacks compared to younger children. Age was significantly associated with percentage of total energy intake (%TEI) for lunch, as well as dinner, while no association was found by gender. Percent of energy consumed from dinner significantly differed by obesity status, with obese children consuming more energy at dinner (p = 0.03), but no associations were found between percent energy from fat and obesity across all meals. Conclusions. Information from this study can be used to develop interventions that target dietary intake patterns in obesity prevention programs for Hispanic children and adolescents. In particular, intervention programs for children should target dietary patterns with energy intake that is spread throughout the day and earlier in the day. These results indicate that a longitudinal study should be used to further explore the relationship of dietary patterns and BMI in this and other populations (Dubois et al., 2008; Rodriquez & Moreno, 2006; Thompson et al., 2005; Wilson et al., in review, 2008). ^

Radium concentration in water samples from the Northeast Atlantic

We present field measurements of air-sea gas exchange by the radon deficit method that were carried out during JASIN 1978 (NE Atlantic) and FGGE 1979 (Equatorial Atlantic). Both experiments comprised repeated deficit measurements at fixed position over periods of days or longer, using a previously descibed precise and fast-acquiaition, automatic radon measuring system. The deficit time series exhibit variations that only partly reflect the expected changes in gas transfer. By evaluating averages over each time series we deduce the following gas transfer velocities (average wind velocity and water temperature in parentheses): JASIN phase 1: 1.6 ± 0.8 m/d (at ~6 m/s, 13°C) JASIN phase 2: 4.3 ± 1.2 m/d (at ~8 m/s, 13°C) FGGE: 1.2 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~5 m/s, 28°C) 0.9 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~7 m/s, 28°C) 1.5 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~7 m/s, 28°C) The large difference betwen the JASIN phase 2 and FGGE values despite quite similare average wind velocity becomes even larger when the values are, however, fully compatible with the range of gas transfer velocities observed in laboratory experiments and the conclusion is suggested that their difference is caused by the highly different wind variability in JASIN and FGGE. We conclude that in gas exchange parameterization it is not sufficinent to consider wind velocity only. A comparison of our observations with laboratory results outlines the range of variations of air-sea gas transfer velocities with wind velocity and sea state. We also reformulate the radon deficit method, in the light of our observed deficit variations, to account explicitely for non-stationary and horizontal inhomogeneity in previous radon work introduces considerable uncertainty in deduced gas transfere velocity. We furthermore discuss the observational rewuirements that have to be met for an adequate exploitation of the radon deficit method, of which an observation area of minimum horizontal inhomogeneity and monitoring of the remaining inhomogeneities are thought to be the most stringent ones.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of core GIK23258-2 in the Barents Sea

At the western continental margin of the Barents Sea, 75°N, hemipelagic sediments provide a record of Holocene climate change with a time resolution of 10-70 years. Planktic foraminifera counts reveal a very early Holocene thermal optimum 10.7-7.7 kyr BP, with summer sea surface temperatures (SST) of 8°C and a much enhanced West Spitsbergen Current. There was a short cooling between 8.8 and 8.2 kyr BP. In the middle and late Holocene summer, SST dropped to 2.5°-5.0°C, indicative of reduced Atlantic heat advection, except for two short warmings near 2.2 and 1.6 kyr BP. Distinct quasi-periodic spikes of coarse sediment fraction (with large portions of lithic grains, benthic and planktic foraminifera) record cascades of cold, dense winter water down the continental slope as a result of enhanced seasonal sea ice formation and storminess on the Barents shelf over the entire Holocene. The spikes primarily cluster near recurrence intervals of 400-650 and 1000-1350 years, when traced over the entire Holocene, but follow significant 885-/840- and 505-/605-year periodicities in the early Holocene. These non-stationary periodicities mimic the Greenland-[Formula: See Text]Be variability, which is a tracer of solar forcing. Further significant Holocene periodicities of 230, (145) and 93 years come close to the deVries and Gleissberg solar cycles.

The Production Technology of Philippine Domestic Banks in the Pre-Asian Crisis Periods: Estimation of Cost Function in the 1990-96 Period

This is to analyzes the operational behavior and technical progress among Philippine domestic banks, using micro-level data on individual banks. First, we summarize their major business activities and gain insight on how the structure is changing. Then, we formally estimate the cost function of Philippine domestic banks using panel data covering a seven-year period (1990-96). The presence of economies of scale and economies of scope is investigated and technical progress in the banking industry is measured. In addition, the results of analysis for the Philippines are compared with those of similar studies on Thailand conducted by the author previously.

Fiscal Decentralization, Chinese Style: Good for Health Outcomes?

This study analyzes the effect of fiscal decentralization on health outcomes in China using a panel data set with nationwide county-level data. We find that counties in more fiscal decentralized provinces have lower infant mortality rates compared to those counties in which the provincial government retains the main spending authority, if certain conditions are met. Spending responsibilities at the local level need to be matched with county government's own fiscal capacity. For those local governments that have only limited revenues, their ability to spend on local public goods such as health care depends crucially upon intergovernmental transfers. The findings of this study thereby support the common assertion that fiscal decentralization can indeed lead to more efficient production of local public goods, but also highlights the necessary conditions to make this happen.

Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

The determinants of offshore production by Multinational Corporations (MNCs) : a comparison of Japanese and US MNCs

This study employs confidential affiliate-level panel data to improve measures of foreign affiliate activities of Japanese firms in manufacturing sectors. Combining existing data on U.S. MNCs with the Japanese data, we illustrate the pattern and determinant of their foreign affiliate sales by destination market across countries and industries for the period 1989-2005. Among our results, Japanese and U.S. MNCs are similar in the substantial growth of their foreign affiliate sales and the importance of sales to local markets. However, Japanese MNCs are distinctive from U.S. MNCs in that Japanese affiliate sales in Asia were prominently higher in host markets with lower educational attainment.

Financial permeation as a role of microfinance : has microfinance actually been helpful to the poor?

This article is distinct in its application of the logit transformation to the poverty ratio for the purpose of empirically examining whether the financial sector helps improve standards of living for low-income people. We propose the term financial permeation to describe how financial networks expand to spread money among the poor. We measure financial permeation by three indicators related to microfinance institutions (MFIs) and then examine its effect on poverty reduction at the macro level using panel data for 90 developing countries from 1995 to 2008. We find that financial permeation has a statistically significant and robust effect on decreasing the poverty ratio.

Market discipline by depositors : impact of deposit insurance on the Indonesian banking sector

This paper investigates market discipline by depositors in the Indonesian banking sector. Does depositor discipline fulfill its role in Indonesia? Does deposit insurance affect depositor behavior thereby imposing discipline on banks? These questions are empirically examined using panel data on Indonesian commercial banks from 1998 to 2009. In Indonesia deposit insurance was introduced in 2005. Depositor discipline is examined by two measures: change in the amount of deposits and interest rate. The empirical results show that depositors pay attention to bank soundness and riskiness and select banks based on the bank's condition with particular attention paid to equity ratio. It is found that depositors impose discipline on banks, but it varies according to regulatory and economic circumstances.