945 resultados para multivariate regression tree


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RESUMO - Introdução: A inatividade física é um dos determinantes major das doenças crónicas não transmissíveis sendo a quarta maior causa de mortalidade no mundo, nomeadamente para as doenças vasculares. A prática regular de atividade física produz adaptações vasculares responsáveis por efeitos benéficos na prevenção e tratamento dos diferentes fatores de risco vascular, nomeadamente através do seu efeito no metabolismo das lipoproteínas. Objetivos: Analisar a interferência da atividade física no perfil lipídico de uma população residente em Portugal. Métodos: Estudo observacional descritivo transversal exploratório com 1027 indivíduos (idade: 18 aos 80 anos, 49% mulheres). Os dados foram analisados em SPSS (versão 20), tendo-se utilizado métodos de estatística descritiva e de análise bivariável entre os factores de risco vascular e as variáveis do perfil lipídico e ainda uma análise multivariável de regressão logística binária para medir a razão de riscos pelo odds ratio. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 5%. Resultados: Na análise da relação entre atividade física e os biomarcadores do perfil lipídico verificou-se que existem benefícios no que diz respeito ao aumento dos níveis de HDL e de apoA1 e na diminuição dos níveis de TG com a prática regular de atividade física. Conclusões: A atividade física apresenta um papel importante na regulação do perfil lipídico evidenciando a necessidade de implementar estratégias multissectoriais de prevenção dos fatores de risco vascular, nomeadamente na área dos estilos de vida saudáveis que são fundamentais para a prevenção destas condições de saúde e para gerar ganhos em saúde.

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RESUMO - Introdução: A saúde oral é uma componente essencial na saúde geral e no bem-estar dos indivíduos. Sabe-se que os problemas de saúde oral afectam predominantemente os elementos de níveis socioeconómicos mais baixos, evidenciando a influência dos determinantes sociais da saúde na saúde oral das populações. Os objectivos deste estudo são caracterizar os comportamentos de rotinas diárias de higiene oral, frequências de idas a consultas de saúde oral, auto-avaliação do estado de saúde oral e percepção de dor na cavidade oral em crianças de 12 anos em Portugal e analisar a associação entre estes e os factores sociodemográficos. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo observacional, transversal e analítico, abrangendo 1309 jovens e baseado em informação recolhida no III Estudo Nacional de Prevalência de Doenças Orais (ENPDO). Para além das estatísticas descritivas usuais, as estatísticas inferenciais basearam-se predominantemente em modelos de regressão logística binária. Resultados: Dos participantes, 70.6% (n=924) escova “duas ou mais vezes por dia” com associação com todas as variáveis sociodemográficas. Na análise multivariada, o género masculino (OR=2.088; IC95%: 1.574-2.770, em relação ao género feminino), a área de residência predominantemente rural ou mediamente urbana (OR= 1.800; IC95%: 2.587; OR=1.516; IC95%: 1.093-2.103, em relação a zonas predominantemente urbanas), a escolaridade da mãe ser o ensino básico (OR= 2.112; IC95%: 1.408-3.168, em relação ao ensino superior) e a actividade laboral do pai ser desempregado (OR= 1.938; IC95%: 1.280-2.934, em relação a ser trabalhador) foram as variáveis com mais impacto para a adopção de comportamentos de escovagem potencialmente inadequados (p<0.05). A maioria dos inquiridos (94.2%; n=1247) já tinham ido a uma consulta de saúde oral e 74.5% (n=860) nos últimos 12 meses, 95.5% (n=1250) encontram-se satisfeitos com a saúde oral e 44.5% (n=578) afirma ter tido algum tipo de dor na cavidade oral nos últimos 12 meses. Conclusão: Os resultados obtidos estão de acordo com a literatura em termos de factores de associação. Desta forma, a saúde oral nos jovens de 12 anos em Portugal, nos diversos contextos aqui analisados, pode ser considerada como satisfatória. A única excepção relevante é a componente da dor, com valores alarmantes embora de natureza mais subjectiva. A influência dos factores sociodemográficos sugere que futuras abordagens para a promoção da saúde oral tenham em conta os determinantes de saúde no delineamento de estratégias quer a nível individual quer a nível comunitário.

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This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

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INTRODUCTION: Reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV is possible when prophylactic measures are implemented. Our objective was to determine demographic characteristics of HIV-infected pregnant women and the rate of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. METHODS: A descriptive study was conducted using notification, and investigating data from the Notifiable Diseases Data System in the Brazilian State of Amazonas, between 2007 and 2009. RESULTS: During the study period, notification was received of 509 HIV-positive pregnant women. The vertical transmission was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.2-12.6%). The mean age of women was 27 years (SD: 5.7), and the majority (54.8%) had not completed elementary school (eighth grade). Diagnosis of HIV seropositivity was made prior to pregnancy in 115 (22.6%) women, during prenatal care in 302 (59.3%), during delivery in 70 (13.8%), and following delivery in 22 (4.3%). Four hundred four of these women (79.4%) had had prenatal care, with 79.4% of patients receiving antiretroviral during pregnancy and 61.9% of the newborn infants receiving prophylaxis. In the final multivariate logistic regression model, living in urban area [OR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.35-0.89)] and having had prenatal care [OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.04-0.24)] remained as protective factors against vertical HIV transmission in this population. CONCLUSIONS: The relevance of adequate compliance with the measures already established as being effective in guaranteeing a reduction in HIV transmission within the maternal and infant population should be emphasized.

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INTRODUCTION: Infection with Leishmania chagasi is the most common clinical presentation for visceral leishmaniaisis in endemic areas. The municipality of Raposa is an endemic area in State of Maranhão, Brazil, and have had registration cases of visceral leishmaniasis disease. For this reason, a cross- sectional study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for infection with L. chagasi detected by Montenegro skin test. METHODS: The sample comprised 96% of the inhabitants of the villages of Maresia, Pantoja, and Marisol located in the municipality of Raposa, corresponding to 1,359 subjects. Data were collected using a questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association between the variables studied and infection of L. chagasi. RESULTS: The variables associated with infection upon nonadjusted analysis were a straw roof, mud walls, floors of beaten earth, presence of sand flies inside or outside of the dwelling, and bathing outdoors. Adjusted analysis showed that the presence of sand flies inside/outside the dwelling was a risk factor, and age younger than 10 years was a protective factor against asymptomatic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the extent to which precarious living conditions of the population strengthen the epidemiological chain of visceral leishmaniasis.

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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

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INTRODUCTION: Despite significant left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction and cardiomegaly, pulmonary congestion does not seem to be a major finding in Chagas' cardiomyopathy (CC). This study sought to identify echocardiographic parameters associated with pulmonary congestion in CC and in dilated cardiomyopathy of other etiologies, such as non-CC (NCC), and to compare pulmonary venous hypertension between the two entities. METHODS: A total of 130 consecutive patients with CC and NCC, with similar echocardiographic characteristics, were assessed using Doppler echocardiography and chest radiography. Pulmonary venous vessel abnormalities were graded using a previously described pulmonary congestion score, and this score was compared with Doppler echocardiographic parameters. RESULTS: NCC patients were older than CC patients (62.4 ± 13.5 × 47.8 ± 11.2, p = 0.00), and there were more male subjects in the CC group (66.2% × 58.5%, p = 0.4). Pulmonary venous hypertension was present in 41 patients in the CC group (63.1%) and in 63 (96.9%) in the NCC group (p = 0.0), the mean lung congestion score being 3.2 ± 2.3 and 5.9 ± 2.6 (p = 0.0), respectively. On linear regression multivariate analysis, the E/e' ratio (β = 0.13; p = 0.0), LV diastolic diameter (β = 0.06; p = 0.06), left atrial diameter (β = 0.51; p = 0.08), and right ventricular (RV) end-diastolic diameter (β = 0.02; p = 0.48) were the variables that correlated with pulmonary congestion in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary congestion was less significant in patients with CC. The degree of LV of systolic and diastolic dysfunction and the RV diameter correlated with pulmonary congestion in both groups. The E/e' ratio was the hallmark of pulmonary congestion in both groups.

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INTRODUCTION: In the jurisdiction of Brasília, Brazil, significant reductions in mortality rates and lethality resulting from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) were observed shortly after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In recent years, however, the decline of these rates has not been as significant. Non-adherence to treatment and delayed diagnosis appear to be the main factors that increase the risk of death from AIDS. Behavioral, socioeconomic, and biological factors could also be associated with increased risk of death due to AIDS. This study aimed to identify which of these factors were associated with deaths from AIDS in Brasília. METHODS: A case-control study was undertaken using the data recorded in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases. Cases consisted of AIDS deaths occurring in 2007, residing in Brasília, and over 12 years of age. Controls consisted of AIDS patients who did not die until December 31 2007, also residing in Brasília, and over 12 years of age. For each group, frequency and proportion tables for the variables were prepared. The statistical association of each factor in isolation with the occurrence of the deaths was verified through a model of multivariate analysis using logistic regression. RESULTS: The factors that were associated with an increased risk of death were intravenous drug use, age 50 years or more, and residing in a region whose residents have low per capita income. CONCLUSIONS: We identified factors associated with death due to AIDS that can guide health planning.

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INTRODUCTION: Many studies have evaluated risk factors for human visceral leishmaniasis, but few have focused on the infection among dogs. The objective of this study was to assess the association between peridomestic socioeconomic and environmental factors and the presence of dogs seropositive for Leishmania chagasi in the City of Teresina, Brazil. METHODS: This case-control study was based on the results of a routine seroepidemiological survey among domestic dogs carried out in 2007. Serological tests were performed by means of indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. All dwellings in which at least one seropositive dog was detected were considered cases, and controls were a random sample of dwellings in which only seronegative dogs were identified. Associations between variables were expressed as odds ratios (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) estimated using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Dwellings with a history of dogs removed by the visceral leishmaniasis control program in the last 12 months had five-fold higher odds of having at least one seropositive dog as compared with dwellings having no history of dog removal (OR = 5.19; 95%CI = 3.20-8.42). Dwellings with cats had 58% increased odds of dog infection as compared with those having no cats (OR = 1.58; 95%CI = 1.01-2.47). CONCLUSIONS: Identification of factors associated with canine visceral leishmaniasis might be used for the delimitation of areas of higher risk for human visceral leishmaniasis, since infection in dogs generally precedes the appearance of human cases.

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RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da prática da Fisioterapia, bem como a influência das características dos indivíduos com Osteoartrose do joelho (OA) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia, tem sido alvo de estudo em vários países. No entanto em Portugal, estudos desta natureza são escassos ou inexistentes. Objetivo: Este trabalho teve dois principais objetivos: Por um lado pretendeu caracterizar a prática da Fisioterapia e determinar os seus resultados em indivíduos com OA do joelho ao nível da intensidade da dor, incapacidade funcional e perceção global de melhoria; Por outro, identificar fatores preditivos para os resultados de sucesso após a intervenção da Fisioterapia. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo de coorte prospetivo com 77 participantes que foram avaliados antes e após a intervenção (8 semanas), com um follow-up de 3 meses. Procedeu-se à caracterização da prática da Fisioterapia quanto às modalidades utilizadas, número de sessões de tratamento e duração do episódio de cuidados. Os resultados obtidos foram medidos após intervenção (8 semanas) e num follow-up (3 meses), através da Escala Numérica da Dor (END), da versão Portuguesa do Questionário Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS-PT), e da versão Portuguesa da Patient Global Impression of Change Scale (PGIC-PT). As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico com base no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT e a análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística multivariado no sentido de identificar as associações entre as variáveis na baseline e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Os resultados obtidos revelaram que existe uma grande diversidade de modalidades e procedimentos terapêuticos realizados pelos fisioterapeutas no tratamento da OA do joelho (em média 4 modalidades por utente), sendo os exercícios, a eletroterapia e a terapia manual, as intervenções mais frequentemente realizadas. Os resultados da intervenção revelaram uma redução significativa da intensidade da dor e da incapacidade funcional (medida pelas diferentes dimensões da KOOS-PT) às 8 semanas e aos 3 meses (p=0,001). A probabilidade de obter bons resultados na percepção de melhoria para realizar actividades da vida diária, está significativamente associada com a pontuação na dimensão KOOS AVD (OR=1,106, 95% IC 1,056-1,159) e com a intensidade da dor, (OR=0,543, 95% IC 0,300-0,983), na baseline. A probabilidade de obter bons resultados na percepção de melhoria relativa à dor, está significativamente associada com a pontuação na dimensão KOOS DOR (OR=1,116, 95% IC 1,030-1,209), e dimensão KOOS ADL (OR=1,123, 95% IC 1,014-1,243), na baseline. Conclusões: Os resultados do presente estudo revelam que a intervenção em Fisioterapia em casos de OA do joelho, apesar de utilizar uma grande diversidade de modalidades terapêuticas, proporciona uma redução significativa dos níveis de dor e incapacidade funcional em utentes com OA do joelho. Os resultados do presente estudo sugerem ainda que o sucesso da intervenção pode ser predito a partir de variáveis clinicas na baseline.------------ABSTRACT:Introduction: The knowledge about the practice of physical therapy, as well as the influence of the characteristics of subjects with knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the prognosis of the results achieved with physiotherapy, have been studied in several countries. However in Portugal, such studies are scarce or nonexistent. Objective: This study had two main aims: on one hand sought to characterize the practice of physical therapy and determine their outcomes in subjects with OA of the knee joint at the level of pain intensity, functional disability and global perception of improvement; Secondly, to identify predictive factors for successful outcomes after the intervention of physiotherapy. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study with 77 participants who were evaluated before and after the intervention (8 weeks), with a follow-up of 3 months. Proceeded to characterize the practice of physical therapy as modalities used, number of treatment sessions and duration of the period of care. The results were measured after intervention (8 weeks) and a follow-up (3 months) by a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), the Portuguese version of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Questionnaire Outcome Score (KOOS-PT) and the Patient Global Impression of Change Scale- Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT). The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential prognostic factors based on scoring criteria≥5 na PGIC-PT and data analysis was performed using the method of multivariate logistic regression to identify associations between variables at baseline and outcome variables (p<0.05). Results: The results revealed that there is a great diversity of modalities and therapeutic procedures performed by physiotherapists in the treatment of knee OA (average 4 per user modes), with exercises, electrotherapy and manual therapy interventions most frequently performed. The results of intervention showed a significant reduction in the severity of pain and functional disability (measured by the different dimensions of the KOOS-PT) at 8 weeks and at 3 months (p = 0.001). The probability of getting good results in the perception of improvement to perform activities of daily living, is significantly associated with scores on the dimension KOOS ADL (OR=1,106, 95% CI 1,056-1,159) and the intensity of pain (OR = 0.543, 95% CI 0.300 to 0.983) at baseline. The probability of getting good results in the perception of improvement of the pain is significantly associated with scores on the KOOS PAIN (OR = 1.116, 95% CI 1.030 to 1.209) and KOOS ADL (OR = 1.123, 95% CI 1.014 to 1.243) at the baseline. Conclusions: The results of this study show that Physiotherapy treatment in cases of knee OA, provide a significant reduction of pain and disability among users with knee OA, despite the wide variety of therapeutic modalities. The results of this study also suggest that the success of the intervention can be predicted from clinical variables at baseline.

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RESUMO: Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.--------------- ABSTRACT:Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047-1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109-0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

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RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.-----------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047- 1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109- 0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

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IntroductionTo determine the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies among pregnant and postpartum women attended within the public healthcare system in Niterói, State of Rio de Janeiro, and to detect possible exposure factors associated with T. gondii infection in this population.MethodsIgM and IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies were investigated in 276 pregnant and 124 postpartum women by using the indirect immunofluorescence (IFAT) and immunoenzymatic assay (ELISA) techniques. The participants were selected by convenience sampling. All these 400 patients filled out a free and informed consent statement, answered an epidemiological questionnaire and were informed about the disease.ResultsAmong the 400 samples analyzed, 234 (58.5%) were reactive to IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies, according to the IFAT and/or ELISA assay. One pregnant woman was found to be reactive to IgM anti-T. gondii antibodies, with an intermediate IgG avidity test. Risk factor analysis showed that seropositivity was significantly associated (p<0.05) with age, contact with cats and presence of rodents at home. Through a logistic regression model, these associations were confirmed for age and contact with cats, while education at least of the high school level was found to be a protective factor.ConclusionsThe prevalence rate of IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies in the City of Niterói was high and the risk factors for infection detected after multivariate analysis were: age over 30 years, contact with cats and education levels lower than university graduate level.

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Introduction This study evaluated the efficacy of retreatment of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) with regard to treatment outcomes and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (ST) profiles. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed 144 patients treated at a referral hospital in Brazil. All of them had undergone prior treatment, were smear-positive for TB and received a standardized retreatment regimen. Fisher's 2-tailed exact test and the χ2 test were used; RRs and 95% CIs were calculated using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Results The patients were cured in 84 (58.3%) cases. Failure was associated with relapsed treatment and abandonment (n=34). Culture tests were obtained for 103 (71.5%) cases; 70 (48.6%) had positive results. ST results were available for 67 (46.5%) cases; the prevalence of acquired resistance was 53.7%. There were no significant differences between those who achieved or not therapeutic success (p=0.988), despite being sensitive or resistant to 1 or more drugs. Rifampicin resistance was independently associated with therapeutic failure (OR: 4.4, 95% CI:1.12-17.37, p=0.034). For those cases in which cultures were unavailable, a 2nd model without this information was built. In this, return after abandonment was significantly associated with retreatment failure (OR: 3.59, 95% CI:1.17-11.06, p=0.026). Conclusions In this cohort, the general resistance profile appeared to have no influence on treatment outcome, except in cases of rifampicin resistance. The form of reentry was another independent predictor of failure. The use of bacterial culture identification and ST in TB management must be re-evaluated. The recommendations for different susceptibility profiles must also be improved.

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Introduction Leprosy is a chronic disease that affects skin and peripheral nerves. Disease complications include reactional episodes and physical impairment. One World Health Organization (WHO) goal of leprosy programs is to decrease the number of grade 2 impairment diagnoses by 2015. This study aims to evaluate clinical factors associated with the occurrence of leprosy reactions and physical impairment in leprosy patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of data from medical records of patients followed in two important centers for the treatment of leprosy in Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil, from 2005 to 2011. We used the chi-square test to analyze associations between the following categorical variables: gender, age, operational classification, clinical forms, leprosy reactions, corticosteroid treatment, and physical impairment at the diagnosis and after cure. Clinical variables associated with multibacillary leprosy and/or reactional episodes and the presence of any grade of physical impairment after cure were evaluated using the logistic regression model. Results We found that men were more affected by multibacillary forms, reactional episodes, and grade 2 physical impairment at diagnosis. Leprosy reactions were detected in a total of 40% of patients and all were treated with corticosteroids. However, physical impairment was observed in 29.8% of the patients analyzed at the end of the treatment and our multivariate analysis associated a low dose and short period of corticosteroid treatment with persistence of physical impairments. Conclusions Physical impairment should receive an increased attention before and after treatment, and adequate treatment should be emphasized.