916 resultados para modeling and prediction


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Tobacco use is a major health hazard, and the onset of tobacco use occurs almost entirely in the teenage years. For this reason, schools are an ideal site for tobacco prevention programs. Although studies have shown that effective school-based tobacco prevention programs exist, all too frequently these programs are not used. In order for effective programs to achieve their potential impact, strategies for speeding the diffusion of these programs to school districts and seeing that, once adopted, programs are implemented as they are intended, must be developed and tested.^ This study (SC2) set out to replicate the findings of an earlier quasi-experimental study (The Smart Choices Diffusion Study, or SC1) in which strategies based on diffusion theory and social learning theory were found to be effective in encouraging adoption and implementation of an effective tobacco prevention program in schools. To increase awareness and encourage adoption, intervention strategies in both studies utilized opinion leaders, messages highlighting positive aspects of the program, and modeling of benefits and effective use through videotape and newsletters. To encourage accurate implementation of the curriculum, teacher training for the two studies utilized videotaped modeling and practice of activities by teachers. SC2 subjects were 38 school districts that make up one of Texas' 20 education service regions. These districts had served as the comparison group in SC1, and findings for the SC1 comparison and intervention groups were utilized as historic controls.^ SC2 achieved a 76.3% adoption rate and found that an average of 84% of the curriculum was taught with an 82% fidelity to methods utilized by the curriculum. These rates and rates for implementation of dissemination strategies were equal to or greater than corresponding rates for SC1. The proportion of teachers implementing the curriculum in SC2 was found to be equal to SC1's video-trained districts but lower than the SC1 workshop-trained group.^ SC2's findings corroborate and support the findings from the earlier study, and increase our confidence in its findings. Taken together, the findings from SC2 and SC1 point to the effectiveness of their theory-based intervention strategies in encouraging adoption and accurate implementation of the tobacco prevention curriculum. ^

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Salt transport in the Irminger Current and thus the coupling between eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic plays an important role for climate variability across a wide range of time scales. High-resolution ocean modeling and observations indicate that 5 salinities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic decrease with enhanced circulation of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). This has led to the perception that a stronger SPG also transports less salt westward. In this study, we analyze a regional ocean model and a comprehensive global coupled climate model, and show that a stronger SPG transports more salt in the Irminger Current irrespective of lower salinities in its 10 source region. The additional salt converges in the Labrador Sea and the Irminger Basin by eddy transports, increases surface salinity in the western SPG, and favors more intense deep convection. This is part of a positive feedback mechanism with potentially large implications for climate variability and predictability.

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BACKGROUND Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is marked by high mortality rate. To date, no robust risk stratification by clinical or molecular prognosticators of cancer-specific survival (CSS) has been established for early stages. Transcriptional profiling of small non-coding RNA gene products (miRNAs) seems promising for prognostic stratification. The expression of miR-21 and miR-126 was analysed in a large cohort of RCC patients; a combined risk score (CRS)-model was constructed based on expression levels of both miRNAs. METHODS Expression of miR-21 and miR-126 was evaluated by qRT-PCR in tumour and adjacent non-neoplastic tissue in n = 139 clear cell RCC patients. Relation of miR-21 and miR-126 expression with various clinical parameters was assessed. Parameters were analysed by uni- and multivariate COX regression. A factor derived from the z-score resulting from the COX model was determined for both miRs separately and a combined risk score (CRS) was calculated multiplying the relative expression of miR-21 and miR-126 by this factor. The best fitting COX model was selected by relative goodness-of-fit with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). RESULTS RCC with and without miR-21 up- and miR-126 downregulation differed significantly in synchronous metastatic status and CSS. Upregulation of miR-21 and downregulation of miR-126 were independently prognostic. A combined risk score (CRS) based on the expression of both miRs showed high sensitivity and specificity in predicting CSS and prediction was independent from any other clinico-pathological parameter. Association of CRS with CSS was successfully validated in a testing cohort containing patients with high and low risk for progressive disease. CONCLUSIONS A combined expression level of miR-21 and miR-126 accurately predicted CSS in two independent RCC cohorts and seems feasible for clinical application in assessing prognosis.

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Navigation of deep space probes is most commonly operated using the spacecraft Doppler tracking technique. Orbital parameters are determined from a series of repeated measurements of the frequency shift of a microwave carrier over a given integration time. Currently, both ESA and NASA operate antennas at several sites around the world to ensure the tracking of deep space probes. Just a small number of software packages are nowadays used to process Doppler observations. The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) has recently started the development of Doppler data processing capabilities within the Bernese GNSS Software. This software has been extensively used for Precise Orbit Determination of Earth orbiting satellites using GPS data collected by on-board receivers and for subsequent determination of the Earth gravity field. In this paper, we present the currently achieved status of the Doppler data modeling and orbit determination capabilities in the Bernese GNSS Software using GRAIL data. In particular we will focus on the implemented orbit determination procedure used for the combined analysis of Doppler and intersatellite Ka-band data. We show that even at this earlier stage of the development we can achieve an accuracy of few mHz on two-way S-band Doppler observation and of 2 µm/s on KBRR data from the GRAIL primary mission phase.

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Despite an impressive amount of research and policy intervention no robust pattern of neighborhood effects on educational attainment has previously been identified. Adequate theoretical modeling and the sensitivity of the results to the method of the study are the major challenges in this area of research. This paper elaborates the social mechanisms of neighborhood effects and applies various methodological approaches to test them. Using data from Switzerland, the research reported here has detected heterogeneous effects of neighborhood on elementary school students’ educational achievement in Zurich. Although modest in comparison with the effects of classroom composition, these effects appear to be mediated primarily through social integration into a local peer network and are differentiated according to students’ gender and their social origin.

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Several intervals have been proposed to quantify the agreement of two methods intended to measure the same quantity in the situation where only one measurement per method and subject is available. The limits of agreement are probably the most well-known among these intervals, which are all based on the differences between the two measurement methods. The different meanings of the intervals are not always properly recognized in applications. However, at least for small-to-moderate sample sizes, the differences will be substantial. This is illustrated both using the width of the intervals and on probabilistic scales related to the definitions of the intervals. In particular, for small-to-moderate sample sizes, it is shown that limits of agreement and prediction intervals should not be used to make statements about the distribution of the differences between the two measurement methods or about a plausible range for all future differences. Care should therefore be taken to ensure the correct choice of the interval for the intended interpretation.

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1. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the stability of ecosystem processes is not governed by diversity per se, but by multitrophic interactions in complex communities. However, experimental evidence supporting this assumption is scarce.2. We investigated the impact of plant diversity and the presence of above- and below-ground invertebrates on the stability of plant community productivity in space and time, as well as the interrelationship between both stability measures in experimental grassland communities.3. We sampled above-ground plant biomass on subplots with manipulated above- and below-ground invertebrate densities of a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment) 1, 4 and 6 years after the establishment of the treatments to investigate temporal stability. Moreover, we harvested spatial replicates at the last sampling date to explore spatial stability.4. The coefficient of variation of spatial and temporal replicates served as a proxy for ecosystem stability. Both spatial and temporal stability increased to a similar extent with plant diversity. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between spatial and temporal stability, and elevated plant density might be a crucial factor governing the stability of diverse plant communities.5. Above-ground insects generally increased temporal stability, whereas impacts of both earthworms and above-ground insects depended on plant species richness and the presence of grasses. These results suggest that inconsistent results of previous studies on the diversity–stability relationship have in part been due to neglecting higher trophic-level interactions governing ecosystem stability.6. Changes in plant species diversity in one trophic level are thus unlikely to mirror changes in multitrophic interrelationships. Our results suggest that both above- and below-ground invertebrates decouple the relationship between spatial and temporal stability of plant community productivity by differently affecting the homogenizing mechanisms of plants in diverse plant communities.7.Synthesis. Species extinctions and accompanying changes in multitrophic interactions are likely to result not only in alterations in the magnitude of ecosystem functions but also in its variability complicating the assessment and prediction of consequences of current biodiversity loss.

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Asteroid 2008 TC3 (approximately 4m diameter) was tracked and studied in space for approximately 19h before it impacted Earth's atmosphere, shattering at 44-36km altitude. The recovered samples (>680 individual rocks) comprise the meteorite Almahata Sitta (AhS). Approximately 50-70% of these are ureilites (ultramafic achondrites). The rest are chondrites, mainly enstatite, ordinary, and Rumuruti types. The goal of this work is to understand how fragments of so many different types of parent bodies became mixed in the same asteroid. Almahata Sitta has been classified as a polymict ureilite with an anomalously high component of foreign clasts. However, we calculate that the mass of fallen material was 0.1% of the pre-atmospheric mass of the asteroid. Based on published data for the reflectance spectrum of the asteroid and laboratory spectra of the samples, we infer that the lost material was mostly ureilitic. Therefore, 2008 TC3 probably contained only a few percent nonureilitic materials, similar to other polymict ureilites except less well consolidated. From available data for the AhS meteorite fragments, we conclude that 2008 TC3 samples essentially the same range of types of ureilitic and nonureilitic materials as other polymict ureilites. We therefore suggest that the immediate parent of 2008 TC3 was the immediate parent of all ureilitic material sampled on Earth. We trace critical stages in the evolution of that material through solar system history. Based on various types of new modeling and re-evaluation of published data, we propose the following scenario. (1) The ureilite parent body (UPB) accreted 0.5-0.6Ma after formation of calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI), beyond the ice line (outer asteroid belt). Differentiation began approximately 1Ma after CAI. (2) The UPB was catastrophically disrupted by a major impact approximately 5Ma after CAI, with selective subsets of the fragments reassembling into daughter bodies. (3) Either the UPB (before breakup), or one of its daughters (after breakup), migrated to the inner belt due to scattering by massive embryos. (4) One daughter (after forming in or migrating to the inner belt) became the parent of 2008 TC3. It developed a regolith, mostly 3.8Ga ago. Clasts of enstatite, ordinary, and Rumuruti-type chondrites were implanted by low-velocity collisions. (5) Recently, the daughter was disrupted. Fragments were injected or drifted into Earth-crossing orbits. 2008 TC3 comes from outer layers of regolith, other polymict ureilites from deeper regolith, and main group ureilites from the interior of this body. In contrast to other models that have been proposed, this model invokes a stochastic history to explain the unique diversity of foreign materials in 2008 TC3 and other polymict ureilites.

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Objectives. The purpose of this study was to identify the psychosocial and environmental predictors and the pathways they use to influence calcium intake, physical activity and bone health among adolescent girls. Methods. A secondary data analysis using a cross-sectional and longitudinal study design was implemented to examine the associations of interest. Data from the Incorporating More Physical Activity and Calcium in Teens (IMPACT) study collected in 2001-2003 were utilized for the analyses. IMPACT was a 1½ year nutrition and physical activity intervention study conducted among 718 middle-school girls in central Texas. Hierarchical regression modeling and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used to determine the psychosocial predictors of calcium intake, physical activity and bone health at baseline. Hierarchical regression was used to determine if psychosocial factors at baseline were significant predictors of calcium intake and physical activity at follow-up. Data was adjusted for included BMI, lactose intolerance, ethnicity, menarchal status, intervention and participation in 7th grade PE/athletics. Results. Results of the baseline regression analysis revealed that calcium self-efficacy and milk availability at home were the strongest predictors of calcium intake. Friend engagement in physical activity, physical activity self-efficacy and participation in sports teams were the strongest predictors of physical activity. Finally, physical activity outcome expectations, social support and participation in sports teams were significant predictors of stiffness index at baseline. Results of the baseline SEM path analysis found that outcome expectations and milk availability at home directly influenced calcium intake. Knowledge and calcium self-efficacy indirectly influenced calcium intake with outcome expectations as the mediator. Physical activity self-efficacy and social support had significant direct and indirect influence on physical activity with participation in sports teams as the mediator. Participation in sports teams had a direct effect on both physical activity and stiffness index. Results of regression analysis for baseline predicting follow-up showed that participation in sports teams, self-efficacy, outcome expectations and social support at baseline were significant predictors of physical activity at follow-up. Conclusion. Results of this study reinforce the relevance of addressing both, psychosocial and environmental factors which are critical when developing interventions to improve bone health among adolescent girls. ^

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Expression of the structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins is coordinately controlled by host-related signals such as elevated CO2 , and the trans-acting positive regulator, AtxA. No specific binding of AtxA to the toxin gene promoters has been demonstrated and no sequence-based similarities are apparent in the promoter regions of toxin genes. We hypothesized that the toxin genes possess common structural features that are required for positive regulation. To test this hypothesis, I performed an extensive characterization of the toxin gene promoters. I determined the minimal sequences required for atxA-mediated toxin gene expression and compared these sequences for structural similarities. In silico modeling and in vitro experiments indicated significant curvature within these regions. Random mutagenesis revealed that point mutations associated with reduced transcriptional activity, mostly mapped to areas of high curvature. This work enabled the identification of two potential cis-acting elements implicated in AtxA-mediated regulation of the toxin genes. In addition to the growth condition requirements and AtxA, toxin gene expression is under growth phase regulation. The transition state regulator AbrB represses atxA expression to influence toxin synthesis. Here I report that toxin gene expression also requires sigH, a gene encoding the RNA polymerase sigma factor associated with development in B. subtilis. In the well-studied B. subtilis system, σH is part of a feedback control pathway that involves AbrB and the major response regulator of sporulation initiation, Spo0A. My data indicate that in B. anthracis, regulatory relationships exist between these developmental regulators and atxA . Interestingly, during growth in toxin-inducing conditions, sigH and abrB expression deviates from that described for B. subtilis, affecting expression of the atxA gene. These findings, combined with previous observations, suggest that the steady state level of atxA expression is critical for optimal toxin gene transcription. I propose a model whereby, under toxin-inducing conditions, control of toxin gene expression is fine-tuned by the independent effects of the developmental regulators on the expression of atxA . The growth condition-dependent changes in expression of these regulators may be crucial for the correct timing and uninterrupted expression of the toxin genes during infection. ^

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Over the past several decades, the prevalence of obesity has dramatically increased. Cause for concern has increased because overweight and obesity are major contributors to morbidity and mortality. Intervention research aimed at reducing the prevalence of obesity has identified the family, specifically the parent, as a key component of the home environment. However, findings from dietary behavior change interventions have been disheartening because few studies have reported meaningful change, suggesting methodological and/or measurement issues within the intervention process. A lack of appropriate mediators and cross-cultural equivalence may partially explain the reason for little change.^ The study aims were to (1) evaluate the psychometric properties and assess the cross cultural equivalence of the Food Insecurity Scale (paper 1) and the modified Parent Feeding Practices Questionnaire (paper 2) and to assess the overall relationships among food insecurity, parent mediators, and parent behaviors towards children's dietary behavior (paper 3) through structural equation modeling and tests of invariance. The study aims were accomplished through conducting secondary analyses using baseline data from English- and Spanish-speaking Hispanic women who participated in the Healthy Families: Step by Step (BHF) study.^ Results indicated that although the FIS and the mPFPQ exhibited sound psychometric properties, the instruments exhibited a lack of invariance across language spoken groups. The lack of invariance was more pronounced in the FIS. Results also supported the theoretical framework identifying parent's perceived barriers and self-efficacy as mediators of parent's behaviors toward improving children's health eating. Results did not suggest that the relationships were moderated by food insecurity.^ In conclusion, the identification of differential item functioning in food insecurity and parent feeding practices may be beneficial in enhancing tailored interventions through the incorporation of cultural differences into the change mechanisms. However, future research needs to be conducted to determine if the lack of invariance demonstrates the existence of item bias or if it is a reflection of true difference among the language spoken groups. Additionally, obesity intervention studies targeting parent/family barriers and parent self-efficacy to provide/encourage healthy diets may result in an increase in parent behaviors which promote healthy eating behaviors among children. Future research should also examine a more complete causal pathway to determine whether parental changes in the mediators ultimately lead to an increase in healthy dietary behavior among children.^

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Purpose. A descriptive analysis of glioma patients by race was carried out in order to better elucidate potential differences between races in demographics, treatment, characteristics, prognosis and survival. ^ Patients and Methods. Among 1,967 patients ≥ 18 years diagnosed with glioma seen between July 2000 and September 2006 at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC). Data were collated from the UTMDACC Patient History Database (PHDB) and the UTMDACC Tumor Registry Database (TRDB). Chi-square analysis, uni- /multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling and survival analysis were used to analyze differences by race. ^ Results. Demographic, treatment and histologic differences exist between races. Though risk differences were seen between races, race was not found to be a significant predictor in multivariate regression analysis after accounting for age, surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, tumor type as stratified by WHO tumor grade. Age was the most consistent predictor in risk for death. Overall survival by race was significantly different (p=0.0049) only in low-grade gliomas after adjustment for age although survival differences were very slight. ^ Conclusion. Among this cohort of glioma patients, age was the strongest predictor for survival. It is likely that survival is more influenced by age, time to treatment, tumor grade and surgical expertise rather than racial differences. However, age at diagnosis, gender ratios, histology and history of cancer differed significantly between race and genetic differences to this effect cannot be excluded. ^

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Background. Literature worldwide has documented associations between gender-based relationship inequity, sexual communication self-efficacy, and actual use of condoms and contraceptives among young women. However studies that have rigorously tested these associations in southern Vietnam are extremely rare. This study aimed to examine these associations and other current sexual practices among undergraduate female students in the Mekong Delta. Method. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the operationalization of the Theory of Gender and Power and to obtain salient and culture-relevant dimensions of perceived gender relations in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Sixty-four undergraduate female students from two universities participated in eight group discussions focusing on their viewpoints regarding national and local gender equity issues. A subsequent cross-sectional survey consisting of 1181 third-year female students from Can Tho University and An Giang University was conducted. Latent variable modeling and logistic regression were employed to examine the hypothesized associations. Results. Dimensions of perceived gender relations were attributable to theoretical structures of labor, power, and cathexis. Perceptions about gender inequities were comparable to findings from several reports, in which women were still viewed as inferior and subordinate to men. Among students who had ever had a boyfriend(s) (72.4%), 44.8% indicated that their boyfriend had ever asked for sex, 13% had ever had penile-vaginal sex, and 10.3% had ever had oral sex. For those who had ever had penile-vaginal sex, 33% did not use any contraceptive method at first sex. The greater a student’s perception that women were subordinate to men, the lower her self-efficacy for sexual communication and the lower her actual frequencies of asking for contraceptive or condom use. Sexual communication self-efficacy was marginally associated with actual contraceptive use (p=.039) and condom use (p=.092) at first sex. Conclusion. Sexual health promotion strategies should address the influence of perceived unequal gender relations on young women’s sexual communication self-efficacy and the subsequent impact on actual contraceptive and condom use.^

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For a reliable simulation of the time and space dependent CO2 redistribution between ocean and atmosphere an appropriate time dependent simulation of particle dynamics processes is essential but has not been carried out so far. The major difficulties were the lack of suitable modules for particle dynamics and early diagenesis (in order to close the carbon and nutrient budget) in ocean general circulation models, and the lack of an understanding of biogeochemical processes, such as the partial dissolution of calcareous particles in oversaturated water. The main target of ORFOIS was to fill in this gap in our knowledge and prediction capability infrastructure. This goal has been achieved step by step. At first comprehensive data bases (already existing data) of observations of relevance for the three major types of biogenic particles, organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate (CaCO3), and biogenic silica (BSi or opal), as well as for refractory particles of terrestrial origin were collated and made publicly available.

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A comprehensive hydroclimatic data set is presented for the 2011 water year to improve understanding of hydrologic processes in the rain-snow transition zone. This type of dataset is extremely rare in scientific literature because of the quality and quantity of soil depth, soil texture, soil moisture, and soil temperature data. Standard meteorological and snow cover data for the entire 2011 water year are included, which include several rain-on-snow events. Surface soil textures and soil depths from 57 points are presented as well as soil texture profiles from 14 points. Meteorological data include continuous hourly shielded, unshielded, and wind corrected precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, and incoming solar and thermal radiation data. Sub-surface data included are hourly soil moisture data from multiple depths from 7 soil profiles within the catchment, and soil temperatures from multiple depths from 2 soil profiles. Hydrologic response data include hourly stream discharge from the catchment outlet weir, continuous snow depths from one location, intermittent snow depths from 5 locations, and snow depth and density data from ten weekly snow surveys. Though it represents only a single water year, the presentation of both above and below ground hydrologic condition makes it one of the most detailed and complete hydro-climatic datasets from the climatically sensitive rain-snow transition zone for a wide range of modeling and descriptive studies.