Developing a desertification indicator system for a small Mediterranean catchment: a case study from the Serra de Rodes, Alt Empordà, Catalunya, NE Spain

La desertificació és un problema de degradació de sòls de gran importància en regions àrides, semi-àrides i sub-humides, amb serioses conseqüències ambientals, socials i econòmiques com a resultat de l'impacte d'activitats humanes en combinació amb condicions físiques i medi ambientals desfavorables (UNEP, 1994). L'objectiu principal d'aquesta tesi va ser el desenvolupament d'una metodologia simple per tal de poder avaluar de forma precisa l'estat i l'evolució de la desertificació a escala local, a través de la creació d'un model anomenat sistema d'indicators de desertificació (DIS). En aquest mateix context, un dels dos objectius específics d'aquesta recerca es va centrar en l'estudi dels factors més importants de degradació de sòls a escala de parcel.la, comportant un extens treball de camp, analisi de laboratori i la corresponent interpretació i discussió dels resultats obtinguts. El segon objectiu específic es va basar en el desenvolupament i aplicació del DIS. L'àrea d'estudi seleccionada va ser la conca de la Serra de Rodes, un ambient típic Mediterràni inclòs en el Parc Natural del Cap de Creus, NE Espanya, el qual ha estat progressivament abandonat pels agricultors durant el segle passat. Actualment, els incendis forestals així com el canvi d'ús del sòl i especialment l'abandonament de terres són considerats els problemes ambientals més importants a l'àrea d'estudi (Dunjó et al., 2003). En primer lloc, es va realitzar l'estudi dels processos i causes de la degradació dels sòls a l'àrea d'interés. En base a aquest coneixement, es va dur a terme la identificació i selecció dels indicadors de desertificació més rellevants. Finalment, els indicadors de desertificació seleccionats a escala de conca, incloent l'erosió del sòl i l'escolament superficial, es van integrar en un model espaial de procés. Ja que el sòl és considerat el principal indicador dels processos d'erosió, segons la FAO/UNEP/UNESCO (1979), tant el paisatge original així com els dos escenaris d'ús del sòl desenvolupats, un centrat en el cas hipotétic del pas d'un incendi forestal, i l'altre un paisatge completament cultivat, poden ser ambients classificats sota baixa o moderada degradació. En comparació amb l'escenari original, els dos escenaris creats van revelar uns valors més elevats d'erosió i escolament superficial, i en particular l'escenari cultivat. Per tant, aquests dos hipotètic escenaris no semblen ser una alternativa sostenible vàlida als processos de degradació que es donen a l'àrea d'estudi. No obstant, un ampli ventall d'escenaris alternatius poden ser desenvolupats amb el DIS, tinguent en compte les polítiques d'especial interés per la regió de manera que puguin contribuir a determinar les conseqüències potencials de desertificació derivades d'aquestes polítiques aplicades en aquest escenari tan complexe espaialment. En conclusió, el model desenvolupat sembla ser un sistema força acurat per la identificació de riscs presents i futurs, així com per programar efectivament mesures per combatre la desertificació a escala de conca. No obstant, aquesta primera versió del model presenta varies limitacions i la necessitat de realitzar més recerca en cas de voler desenvolupar una versió futura i millor del DIS.

Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP

The aim of this paper is essentially twofold: first, to describe the use of spherical nonparametric estimators for determining statistical diagnostic fields from ensembles of feature tracks on a global domain, and second, to report the application of these techniques to data derived from a modern general circulation model. New spherical kernel functions are introduced that are more efficiently computed than the traditional exponential kernels. The data-driven techniques of cross-validation to determine the amount elf smoothing objectively, and adaptive smoothing to vary the smoothing locally, are also considered. Also introduced are techniques for combining seasonal statistical distributions to produce longer-term statistical distributions. Although all calculations are performed globally, only the results for the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January, February) and Southern Hemisphere winter (June, July, August) cyclonic activity are presented, discussed, and compared with previous studies. Overall, results for the two hemispheric winters are in good agreement with previous studies, both for model-based studies and observational studies.

Towards an improved understanding of the nitrate dynamics in lowland, permeable river-systems: Applications of INCA-N

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the Lambourn and Pang river-systems to integrate current process-knowledge and available-data to test two hypotheses and thereby determine the key factors and processes controlling the movement of nitrate at the catchment-scale in lowland, permeable river-systems: (i) that the in-stream nitrate concentrations were controlled by two end-members only: groundwater and soil-water, and (ii) that the groundwater was the key store of nitrate in these river-systems. Neither hypothesis was proved true or false. Due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters at least two alternative models provided viable explanations for the observed in-stream nitrate concentrations. One model demonstrated that the seasonal-pattern in the stream-water nitrate concentrations was controlled mainly by the mixing of ground- and soil-water inputs. An alternative model demonstrated that in-stream processes were important. It is hoped further measurements of nitrate concentrations made in the catchment soil- and ground-water and in-stream may constrain the model and help determine the correct structure, though other recent studies suggest that these data may serve only to highlight the heterogeneity of the system. Thus when making model-based assessments and forecasts it is recommend that all possible models are used, and the range of forecasts compared. In this study both models suggest that cereal production contributed approximately 50% the simulated in-stream nitrate toad in the two catchments, and the point-source contribution to the in-stream load was minimal. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Prediction of global and local model quality in CASP8 using the ModFOLD server

The development of effective methods for predicting the quality of three-dimensional (3D) models is fundamentally important for the success of tertiary structure (TS) prediction strategies. Since CASP7, the Quality Assessment (QA) category has existed to gauge the ability of various model quality assessment programs (MQAPs) at predicting the relative quality of individual 3D models. For the CASP8 experiment, automated predictions were submitted in the QA category using two methods from the ModFOLD server-ModFOLD version 1.1 and ModFOLDclust. ModFOLD version 1.1 is a single-model machine learning based method, which was used for automated predictions of global model quality (QMODE1). ModFOLDclust is a simple clustering based method, which was used for automated predictions of both global and local quality (QMODE2). In addition, manual predictions of model quality were made using ModFOLD version 2.0-an experimental method that combines the scores from ModFOLDclust and ModFOLD v1.1. Predictions from the ModFOLDclust method were the most successful of the three in terms of the global model quality, whilst the ModFOLD v1.1 method was comparable in performance to other single-model based methods. In addition, the ModFOLDclust method performed well at predicting the per-residue, or local, model quality scores. Predictions of the per-residue errors in our own 3D models, selected using the ModFOLD v2.0 method, were also the most accurate compared with those from other methods. All of the MQAPs described are publicly accessible via the ModFOLD server at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. The methods are also freely available to download from: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/downloads/.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

A conceptual design of a wireless sensor actuator system for optimising energy and well-being in a building

This article presents a prototype model based on a wireless sensor actuator network (WSAN) aimed at optimizing both energy consumption of environmental systems and well-being of occupants in buildings. The model is a system consisting of the following components: a wireless sensor network, `sense diaries', environmental systems such as heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, and a central computer. A multi-agent system (MAS) is used to derive and act on the preferences of the occupants. Each occupant is represented by a personal agent in the MAS. The sense diary is a new device designed to elicit feedback from occupants about their satisfaction with the environment. The roles of the components are: the WSAN collects data about physical parameters such as temperature and humidity from an indoor environment; the central computer processes the collected data; the sense diaries leverage trade-offs between energy consumption and well-being, in conjunction with the agent system; and the environmental systems control the indoor environment.

One’s own soundtrack: affective music synthesis

Computer music usually sounds mechanical; hence, if musicality and music expression of virtual actors could be enhanced according to the user’s mood, the quality of experience would be amplified. We present a solution that is based on improvisation using cognitive models, case based reasoning (CBR) and fuzzy values acting on close-to-affect-target musical notes as retrieved from CBR per context. It modifies music pieces according to the interpretation of the user’s emotive state as computed by the emotive input acquisition componential of the CALLAS framework. The CALLAS framework incorporates the Pleasure-Arousal-Dominance (PAD) model that reflects emotive state of the user and represents the criteria for the music affectivisation process. Using combinations of positive and negative states for affective dynamics, the octants of temperament space as specified by this model are stored as base reference emotive states in the case repository, each case including a configurable mapping of affectivisation parameters. Suitable previous cases are selected and retrieved by the CBR subsystem to compute solutions for new cases, affect values from which control the music synthesis process allowing for a level of interactivity that makes way for an interesting environment to experiment and learn about expression in music.

Development and experimental identification of a biomechanical model of the trunk for functional electrical stimulation control in paraplegia

Objectives. Theoretic modeling and experimental studies suggest that functional electrical stimulation (FES) can improve trunk balance in spinal cord injured subjects. This can have a positive impact on daily life, increasing the volume of bimanual workspace, improving sitting posture, and wheelchair propulsion. A closed loop controller for the stimulation is desirable, as it can potentially decrease muscle fatigue and offer better rejection to disturbances. This paper proposes a biomechanical model of the human trunk, and a procedure for its identification, to be used for the future development of FES controllers. The advantage over previous models resides in the simplicity of the solution proposed, which makes it possible to identify the model just before a stimulation session ( taking into account the variability of the muscle response to the FES). Materials and Methods. The structure of the model is based on previous research on FES and muscle physiology. Some details could not be inferred from previous studies, and were determined from experimental data. Experiments with a paraplegic volunteer were conducted in order to measure the moments exerted by the trunk-passive tissues and artificially stimulated muscles. Data for model identification and validation also were collected. Results. Using the proposed structure and identification procedure, the model could adequately reproduce the moments exerted during the experiments. The study reveals that the stimulated trunk extensors can exert maximal moment when the trunk is in the upright position. In contrast, previous studies show that able-bodied subjects can exert maximal trunk extension when flexed forward. Conclusions. The proposed model and identification procedure are a successful first step toward the development of a model-based controller for trunk FES. The model also gives information on the trunk in unique conditions, normally not observable in able-bodied subjects (ie, subject only to extensor muscles contraction).

Design, implementation and testing of an intelligent knowledge-based system for the supervisory control of a hot rolling mill

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of an intelligent knowledge-based supervisory control (IKBSC) system for a hot rolling mill process. A novel architecture is used to integrate an expert system with an existing supervisory control system and a new optimization methodology for scheduling the soaking pits in which the material is heated prior to rolling. The resulting IKBSC system was applied to an aluminium hot rolling mill process to improve the shape quality of low-gauge plate and to optimise the use of the soaking pits to reduce energy consumption. The results from the trials demonstrate the advantages to be gained from the IKBSC system that integrates knowledge contained within data, plant and human resources with existing model-based systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CAMCR: Computer-Assisted Mixture model analysis for Capture–Recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Enhancing model predictive control using dynamic data reconciliation

The use of data reconciliation techniques can considerably reduce the inaccuracy of process data due to measurement errors. This in turn results in improved control system performance and process knowledge. Dynamic data reconciliation techniques are applied to a model-based predictive control scheme. It is shown through simulations on a chemical reactor system that the overall performance of the model-based predictive controller is enhanced considerably when data reconciliation is applied. The dynamic data reconciliation techniques used include a combined strategy for the simultaneous identification of outliers and systematic bias.

Model predictive control using dynamic integrated system optimisation and parameter estimation (DISOPE)

DISOPE is a technique for solving optimal control problems where there are differences in structure and parameter values between reality and the model employed in the computations. The model reality differences can also allow for deliberate simplification of model characteristics and performance indices in order to facilitate the solution of the optimal control problem. The technique was developed originally in continuous time and later extended to discrete time. The main property of the procedure is that by iterating on appropriately modified model based problems the correct optimal solution is achieved in spite of the model-reality differences. Algorithms have been developed in both continuous and discrete time for a general nonlinear optimal control problem with terminal weighting, bounded controls and terminal constraints. The aim of this paper is to show how the DISOPE technique can aid receding horizon optimal control computation in nonlinear model predictive control.

Optimal control of nonlinear differential algebraic equation systems

A novel iterative procedure is described for solving nonlinear optimal control problems subject to differential algebraic equations. The procedure iterates on an integrated modified linear quadratic model based problem with parameter updating in such a manner that the correct solution of the original non-linear problem is achieved. The resulting algorithm has a particular advantage in that the solution is achieved without the need to solve the differential algebraic equations . Convergence aspects are discussed and a simulation example is described which illustrates the performance of the technique. 1. Introduction When modelling industrial processes often the resulting equations consist of coupled differential and algebraic equations (DAEs). In many situations these equations are nonlinear and cannot readily be directly reduced to ordinary differential equations.