Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Literature review

There are many studies that reveal the nature of design thinking and the nature of conceptual design as distinct from detailed or embodiment design. The results can assist in our understanding of how the process of design can be supported and how new technologies can be introduced into the workplace. Existing studies provide limited information about the nature of collaborative design as it takes place on the ground and in the actual working context. How to provide appropriate and effective of support for collaborative design information sharing across companies, countries and heterogeneous computer systems is a key issue. As data are passed between designers and the computer systems they employ, many exchanges are made. These exchanges may be used to establish measures of the benefits that new support systems can bring. Collaboration support tools represent a fast growing section of the commercial software market place and a reasonable range of products are available. Many of them offer significant application to design for the support of distributed meetings by the provision of video and audio communications and the sharing of information, including collaborative sketching. The tools that specifically support 3D models and other very design specific features are less common and many of those are in prototype stages of development. A key question is to find viable ways of combining design information visualisation support with the collaboration support technologies that can be seen today. When collaborating, different views will need to be accessible at different times to all the collaborators. The architects may want to explain some ideas on their model, the structural engineers on their model and so on. However, there are issues of ownership when the structural engineer wants to manipulate the architect’s model and vice versa. The modes of working, synchronous or asynchronous may have a bearing as in a synchronous session there is control of what is happening.

Generic skills in design teams : literature review

Recent developments in networked three dimensional (3D) virtual worlds, and the proliferation of high bandwidth communications technology, have the potential to dramatically improve collaboration in the construction industry. This research project focuses on the early stages of a construction project in which the models for the project are developed and revised. The project investigates three aspects of collaboration in virtual environments: 1. The processes that enable effective collaboration using high bandwidth information communication technology (ICT); 2. The models that allow for multiple disciplines to share their views in a synchronous virtual environment; 3. The generic skills used by individuals and teams when engaging with high bandwidth information communication technology. The third aspect of the project, listed above, led by the University of Newcastle, explores the domain of People and the extent to which they contribute to the effectiveness of virtual teams. This report relates, primarily, to this aspect.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Management of sharps in ambulance care : a state-wide survey of paramedic knowledge and reported practice

Paramedics are at high risk of exposure to infectious diseases because they frequently undertake procedures such as the use and disposal of sharps as components of everyday practice. While the literature demonstrates that the management of sharps is problematic across all health disciplines, there is a paucity of research examining sharps management practices in the Australian pre-hospital paramedic context. This study examines knowledge and practices of sharps control among paramedics in Queensland, Australia. A mail survey focusing on infection control knowledge and practices was sent to all clinical personnel of the Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) (N = 2274). A total of 1258 surveys were returned, a response rate of 55.3%. Participants responded to 12 true/false statements on the management of sharps and three questions about recapping practices. Most respondents were knowledgeable about the correct management of sharps, with a mean of 11.28 (out of 12, SD = 1.32). When gauging reported practices, more than half (59.1%, n = 736) of participants reported recapping a needle, and 38.5% (n = 479) reported never having done so. These results reflect good knowledge of general management of sharps among respondents, but suggest deficits regarding reported practices. The results suggest that a comprehensive ambulance in-service education programme focusing particularly on sharps management is required. The study highlights the need for further research on sharps management practices in the field, identification of barriers to safe sharps practices in pre-hospital settings, and 'best practice' for translating good sharps management knowledge into practice.

Older patients request more information : a survey of use of written patient education materials in general practice

Objectives: To determine GPs' reported use of written education materials with older patients and older patients' reported receipt of these materials. To determine GPs' and older patients' perceptions of written materials.---------- Method: Using self-report questionnaires, two populations were surveyed; a randomised sample of 50 GPs (29 males and 21 females) practising in Brisbane's southern suburbs and a convenience sample of 188 older community-dwelling people (aged over 64 years).----------- Results: All GPs reported using written materials with patients, although 28% had not given any to the Last 10 patients. This increased to 46% when patients were older. Twenty percent of patients wanted more written information from their GP, while some GPs believed that older patients preferred verbal information and gave out written information only when they perceived patient interest. All GPs reported giving written materials at the time of consultation and over two thirds discussed the content with patients. Just over 50% of patients reported receiving written information from GPs in the Last six months and only hall of these again discussed it directly with their GP. Overall, patients were more positive than GPs about the value of written education materials.---------- Conclusions: Older patients' desire for written information may be better met if they are more assertive in requesting this of GPs and GPs may better serve their patients' needs if they make written information more readily available to them. Better access to materials and more financial incentives to give them out might also increase GPs' use of written materials.

Gender Dilemmas in Children's Fiction

Gender Dilemmas in Children's Fiction examines how fictional texts – picture books, novels, and films – produced for children and young adults are responding to the tensions and dilemmas that arise from new gender relations and sexual differences. The book discusses a diverse range of international children's fiction published between 1990 and 2008. Some of the key dilemmas that emerge are around the texts' treatment of romance, beauty, cyberbodies, queer, and comedy.

Managerial effectiveness for a new millennium in the global higher education sector

With the global tertiary education environment undergoing some of the most rapid changes it has experienced since the 1980s, a technology-driven new millennium is requiring an unprecedented capacity for change on a number of fronts, one of these being the way managers manage. This article discusses some of the new realities facing tertiary education organizations, one of which is a realization that "knowledge capital" is the lifeline of an organization. It ultimately vests in the people whom successful organizations will lead, motivate, develop, and value in a manner sensitive to global trends of convergent social, cultural, and organizational change. This article suggests that the effective leadership of people will return as the touchstone for success, the technological age notwithstanding, and notes recent theory on increased reliance upon organizational integrity in the form of value-based policy and practice. This article draws on management and futurist theory to suggest some of the "flexibility imperatives" in managing the potentially different-looking work force of the future.

De-colonising Shakespeare? : Agency and (masculine) authority in Gregory Rogers's The Boy, The Bear, The Baron, The Bard

Underlying social space are territories, lands,geographical domains, the actual geographical underpinnings of the imperial, and also the cultural contest. To think about distant places, to colonize them, to populate or depopulate them: all of this occurs on, about, or because of land. […] Imperialism and the culture associated with it affirm both the primacy of geography and an ideology about control of territory.