A Multi-Stage Stochastic Non-Linear Model for Reactive Power Planning Under Contingencies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

Model updating of the non-linear vibrating structures through Volterra series and proper orthogonal decomposition

Classical procedures for model updating in non-linear mechanical systems based on vibration data can fail because the common linear metrics are not sensitive for non-linear behavior caused by gaps, backlash, bolts, joints, materials, etc. Several strategies were proposed in the literature in order to allow a correct representative model of non-linear structures. The present paper evaluates the performance of two approaches based on different objective functions. The first one is a time domain methodology based on the proper orthogonal decomposition constructed from the output time histories. The second approach uses objective functions with multiples convolutions described by the first and second order discrete-time Volterra kernels. In order to discuss the results, a benchmark of a clamped-clamped beam with an pre-applied static load is simulated and updated using proper orthogonal decomposition and Volterra Series. The comparisons and discussions of the results show the practical applicability and drawbacks of both approaches.

Non-destructive linear model for leaf area estimation in Vernonia ferruginea Less

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

Two versions of the threshold contact model in two dimensions

Two versions of the threshold contact process ordinary and conservative - are studied on a square lattice. In the first, particles are created on active sites, those having at least two nearest neighbor sites occupied, and are annihilated spontaneously. In the conservative version, a particle jumps from its site to an active site. Mean-field analysis suggests the existence of a first-order phase transition, which is confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. In the thermodynamic limit, the two versions are found to give the same results. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic crack growth analyses using a boundary element model: Applications in linear elastic fracture and fatigue problems

This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Femtosecond laser-based investigations of magnetic circular dichroism in near-threshold photoemission

During the last decades magnetic circular dichroism (MCD) has attracted much interest and evolved into various experimental methods for the investigation of magnetic thin films. For example, synchrotron-based X-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD) displays the absolute values of spin and orbital magnetic moments. It thereby benefits from large asymmetry values of more than 30% due to the excitation of atomic core-levels. Similarly large values are also expected for threshold photoemission magnetic circular dichroism (TPMCD). Using lasers with photon energies in the range of the sample work function this method gives access to the occupied electronic structure close to the Fermi level. However, except for the case of Ni(001) there exist only few studies on TPMCD moreover revealing much smaller asymmetries than XMCD-measurements. Also the basic physical mechanisms of TPMCD are not satisfactorily understood. In this work we therefore investigate TPMCD in one- and two-photon photoemission (1PPE and 2PPE) for ferromagnetic Heusler alloys and ultrathin Co films using ultrashort pulsed laser light. The observed dichroism is explained by a non-conventional photoemission model using spin-resolved band-structure calculations and linear response theory. For the two Heusler alloys Ni2MnGa and Co2FeSi we give first evidence of TPMCD in the regime of two-photon photoemission. Systematic investigations concerning general properties of TPMCD in 1PPE and 2PPE are carried out at ultrathin Co films grown on Pt(111). Here, photon-energy dependent measurements reveal asymmetries of 1.9% in 1PPE and 11.7% in 2PPE. TPMCD measurements at decreased work function even yield larger asymmetries of 6.2% (1PPE) and 17% (2PPE), respectively. This demonstrates that enlarged asymmetries are also attainable for the TPMCD effect on Co(111). Furthermore, we find that the TPMCD asymmetry is bulk-sensitive for 1PPE and 2PPE. This means that the basic mechanism leading to the observed dichroism must be connected to Co bulk properties; surface effects do not play a crucial role. Finally, the enhanced TPMCD asymmetries in 2PPE compared to the 1PPE case are traced back to the dominant influence of the first excitation step and the existence of a real intermediate state. The observed TPMCD asymmetries cannot be interpreted by conventional photoemission theory which only considers direct interband transitions in the direction of observation (Γ-L). For Co(111), these transitions lead to evanescent final states. The excitation to such states, however, is incompatible with the measured bulk-sensitivity of the asymmetry. Therefore, we generalize this model by proposing the TPMCD signal to arise mostly from direct interband transitions in crystallographic directions other than (Γ-L). The necessary additional momentum transfer to the excited electrons is most probably provided by electron-phonon or -magnon scattering processes. Corresponding calculations on the basis of this model are in reasonable agreement with the experimental results so that this approach represents a promising tool for a quantitative description of the TPMCD effect. The present findings encourage an implementation of our experimental technique to time- and spatially-resolved photoemission electron microscopy, thereby enabling a real time imaging of magnetization dynamics of single excited states in a ferromagnetic material on a femtosecond timescale.

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

A linear O(N) model: a functional renormalization group approach for flat and curved space

In questa tesi sono state applicate le tecniche del gruppo di rinormalizzazione funzionale allo studio della teoria quantistica di campo scalare con simmetria O(N) sia in uno spaziotempo piatto (Euclideo) che nel caso di accoppiamento ad un campo gravitazionale nel paradigma dell'asymptotic safety. Nel primo capitolo vengono esposti in breve alcuni concetti basilari della teoria dei campi in uno spazio euclideo a dimensione arbitraria. Nel secondo capitolo si discute estensivamente il metodo di rinormalizzazione funzionale ideato da Wetterich e si fornisce un primo semplice esempio di applicazione, il modello scalare. Nel terzo capitolo è stato studiato in dettaglio il modello O(N) in uno spaziotempo piatto, ricavando analiticamente le equazioni di evoluzione delle quantità rilevanti del modello. Quindi ci si è specializzati sul caso N infinito. Nel quarto capitolo viene iniziata l'analisi delle equazioni di punto fisso nel limite N infinito, a partire dal caso di dimensione anomala nulla e rinormalizzazione della funzione d'onda costante (approssimazione LPA), già studiato in letteratura. Viene poi considerato il caso NLO nella derivative expansion. Nel quinto capitolo si è introdotto l'accoppiamento non minimale con un campo gravitazionale, la cui natura quantistica è considerata a livello di QFT secondo il paradigma di rinormalizzabilità dell'asymptotic safety. Per questo modello si sono ricavate le equazioni di punto fisso per le principali osservabili e se ne è studiato il comportamento per diversi valori di N.

A Model to Predict Percolation Threshold and Effective Conductivity of Infiltrated Electrodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

We present a mechanistic modeling methodology to predict both the percolation threshold and effective conductivity of infiltrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) electrodes. The model has been developed to mirror each step of the experimental fabrication process. The primary model output is the infiltrated electrode effective conductivity which provides results over a range of infiltrate loadings that are independent of the chosen electronically conducting material. The percolation threshold is utilized as a valuable output data point directly related to the effective conductivity to compare a wide range of input value choices. The predictive capability of the model is demonstrated by favorable comparison to two separate published experimental studies, one using strontium molybdate and one using La0.8Sr0.2FeO3-δ as infiltrate materials. Effective conductivities and percolation thresholds are shown for varied infiltrate particle size, pore size, and porosity with the infiltrate particle size having the largest impact on the results.

A Model to Predict Percolation Threshold and Effective Conductivity of Infiltrated Electrodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

We present a mechanistic modeling methodology to predict both the percolation threshold and effective conductivity of infiltrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) electrodes. The model has been developed to mirror each step of the experimental fabrication process. The primary model output is the infiltrated electrode effective conductivity which provides results over a range of infiltrate loadings that are independent of the chosen electronically conducting material. The percolation threshold is utilized as a valuable output data point directly related to the effective conductivity to compare a wide range of input value choices. The predictive capability of the model is demonstrated by favorable comparison to two separate published experimental studies, one using strontium molybdate and one using La0.8Sr0.2FeO3-delta as infiltrate materials. Effective conductivities and percolation thresholds are shown for varied infiltrate particle size, pore size, and porosity with the infiltrate particle size having the largest impact on the results. (C) 2013 The Electrochemical Society. All rights reserved.