906 resultados para generalized linear models


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Física - FEG

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Objective: To investigate the influence of a regular oral use of acetylsalicylic acid in the prevalence of actinic keratosis.Methods: A case-control study with dermatologic outpatients above 50 years of age assessed between 2009 and 2011. Cases were defined as those who had been under regular use of oral acetylsalicylic acid for more than six consecutive months. The assessment focused on: age, sex, skin-type, tobacco smoking, use of medication, occurrence of individual or family skin cancer, and sunscreen and sun exposure habits. Actinic keratoses were counted in the medial region of the face and upper limbs. Counts were adjusted by co-variables based on a generalized linear model.Results: A total of 74 cases and 216 controls were assessed. The median time of acetylsalicylic acid use was 36 months. Cases differed from controls as to the highest age, highest prevalence of use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and fewer keratosis on the face and on the upper limbs (p < 0.05). The multivariate model showed that the use of acetylsalicylic acid was associated to lower counts of face actinic keratosis and upper-limb erythematous actinic keratosis (p < 0.05), regardless of other risk factors.Conclusion: The regular use of oral acetylsalicylic acid for more than six months was associated to a lower prevalence of actinic keratosis, especially facial and erythematous ones.