Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Intraspecific variation in brain size and architecture : population divergence and phenotypic plasticity

Brain size and architecture exhibit great evolutionary and ontogenetic variation. Yet, studies on population variation (within a single species) in brain size and architecture, or in brain plasticity induced by ecologically relevant biotic factors have been largely overlooked. Here, I address the following questions: (i) do locally adapted populations differ in brain size and architecture, (ii) can the biotic environment induce brain plasticity, and (iii) do locally adapted populations differ in levels of brain plasticity? In the first two chapters I report large variation in both absolute and relative brain size, as well as in the relative sizes of brain parts, among divergent nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations. Some traits show habitat-dependent divergence, implying natural selection being responsible for the observed patterns. Namely, marine sticklebacks have relatively larger bulbi olfactorii (chemosensory centre) and telencephala (involved in learning) than pond sticklebacks. Further, I demonstrate the importance of common garden studies in drawing firm evolutionary conclusions. In the following three chapters I show how the social environment and perceived predation risk shapes brain development. In common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles, I demonstrate that under the highest per capita predation risk, tadpoles develop smaller brains than in less risky situations, while high tadpole density results in enlarged tectum opticum (visual brain centre). Visual contact with conspecifics induces enlarged tecta optica in nine-spined sticklebacks, whereas when only olfactory cues from conspecifics are available, bulbus olfactorius become enlarged.Perceived predation risk results in smaller hypothalami (complex function) in sticklebacks. Further, group-living has a negative effect on relative brain size in the competition-adapted pond sticklebacks, but not in the predation-adapted marine sticklebacks. Perceived predation risk induces enlargement of bulbus olfactorius in pond sticklebacks, but not in marine sticklebacks who have larger bulbi olfactorii than pond fish regardless of predation. In sum, my studies demonstrate how applying a microevolutionary approach can help us to understand the enormous variation observed in the brains of wild animals a point-of-view which I high-light in the closing review chapter of my thesis.

Impaired spermatogenesis in Finnish boars and bulls

Maintenance of breeding efficiency and high semen quality is essential for reproductive success in farm animals. Early recognition of possible inheritable factors causing infertility requires constant attention. This thesis focuses on describing different manifestations of impaired spermatogenesis, their impact on fertility and partly also their incidence in populations. The reasons for spermatogenic failure are various. An interruption of germ cell differentiation, spermatogenic arrest, can lead to infertility. The incidence of azoospermia was investigated in the 1996 2005 survey of Finnish AI and farm breeding boars. We focused on the diagnosis, testicular morphometry and the possible reasons for the condition. The incidence of azoospermia was significantly higher in Yorkshire boars than in the Landrace breed. The most common diagnosis in Yorkshire boars was germ cell arrest at the primary spermatocyte level. The second most frequent diagnosis in Yorkshire boars was segmental aplasia of the Wolffian ducts with idiopathic epididymal obstruction. Other reasons for azoospermia were infrequent. In the second study we investigated the incidence of two relatively well-defined specific sperm defects in Finnish Yorkshire and Landrace boars during the same survey, the immotile short-tail sperm (ISTS) defect and the knobbed acrosome (KA) defect. In the Finnish Yorkshire boars the inherited ISTS defect, and the probably inherited KA defect, were important causes of infertility during 1996 2005. The ISTS defect was found in 7.6% and the KA defect in 0.8% of the Yorkshire boars. No Landrace boars were diagnosed with either of these two defects. In the third study we described a new sterilizing sperm defect in an oligoasthenoterazoospermic bull. Because of its morphological characteristics this defect was termed the multinuclear-multiflagellar sperm (MNMFS) defect. The number of Sertoli cells in the seminiferous tubuli was highly increased in the MNMFS bull compared with the number in normal bulls. In the following two studies we used a combined approach of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), flow cytometry and morphometric studies to provide information on the cytogenetic background of macrocephalic bull spermatozoa. We described cellular features of diploid spermatozoa and compared the failures in the first and second meiotic divisions. In the last study we describe how the transplantation of testicular cells was used to determine whether spermatogonia derived from donor animals are able to colonize and produce motile spermatozoa in immune-competent unrelated boars suffering the ISTS defect. Transplantation resulted in complete focal spermatogenesis, indicated by the appearance of motile spermatozoa and confirmed by genotyping.

Isolation of transforming growth factor-beta 2 cDNA from a fish, Cyprinus carpio by RT-PCR

Transforming Growth Factors-beta (TGF-beta s) have been described in many vertebrate species of amphibians, aves and mammals. In this report we demonstrate the presence of TGF-beta 2 in pisces. TGF-beta 2 has been cloned from a fish, Cyrinus carpio, by RT-PCR using degenerate oligonucleotide primers. Sequence analysis of the amplified product and alignment of the deduced amino acid sequence with the human TGF-beta 2 amino acid sequence revealed 81% and 93% identity in the precursor and the mature regions, respectively. The northern blot analysis of fish heart RNA shows a major messenger RNA species of about 8.0 kb and two messages of very low abundance of about 5.0 kb and 4.0 kb. The identification of TGF-beta 2 isoform in Pisces and it's high degree of homology with the mammalian isoform suggests that among all TGF-beta isoforms, TGF-beta 2 is the most conserved during evolution. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Ethnobotany of the Monpa ethnic group at Arunachal Pradesh, India

Background: The present paper documents the uses of plants in traditional herbal medicine for human and veterinary ailments, and those used for dietary supplements, religious purpose, local beverage, and plants used to poison fish and wild animals. Traditional botanical medicine is the primary mode of healthcare for most of the rural population in Arunachal Pradesh. Materials and methods: Field research was conducted between April 2006 and March 2009 with randomly selected 124 key informants using semi-structured questionnaire. The data obtained was analyzed through informant consensus factor (F(IC)) to determine the homogeneity of informant's knowledge on medicinal plants. Results: We documented 50 plants species belonging to 29 families used for treating 22 human and 4 veterinary ailments. Of the medicinal plants reported, the most common growth form was herbs (40%) followed by shrubs, trees, and climbers. Leaves were most frequently used plant parts. The consensus analysis revealed that the dermatological ailments have the highest F(IC) (0.56) and the gastro-intestinal diseases have F(IC) (0.43). F(IC) values indicated that there was high agreement in the use of plants in dermatological and gastro-intestinal ailments category among the users. Gymnocladus assamicus is a critically rare and endangered species used as disinfectant for cleaning wounds and parasites like leeches and lice on livestocks. Two plant species (Illicium griffithii and Rubia cordifolia) are commonly used for traditional dyeing of clothes and food items. Some of the edible plants recorded in this study were known for their treatment against high blood pressure (Clerodendron colebrookianum), diabetes mellitus (Momordica charantia), and intestinal parasitic worms like round and tape worms (Lindera neesiana, Solanum etiopicum, and Solanum indicum). The Monpas of Arunachal Pradesh have traditionally been using Daphne papyracea for preparing hand-made paper for painting and writing religious scripts in Buddhist monasteries. Three plant species (Derris scandens, Aesculus assamica, and Polygonum hydropiper) were frequently used to poison fish during the month of June-July every year and the underground tuber of Aconitum ferrox is widely used in arrow poisoning to kill ferocious animals like bear, wild pigs, gaur and deer. The most frequently cited plant species; Buddleja asiatica and Hedyotis scandens were used as common growth supplements during the preparation of fermentation starter cultures. Conclusion: The traditional pharmacopoeia of the Monpa ethnic group incorporates a myriad of diverse botanical flora. Traditional knowledge of the remedies is passed down through oral traditions without any written document. This traditional knowledge is however, currently threatened mainly due to acculturation and deforestation due to continuing traditional shifting cultivation. This study reveals that the rural populations in Arunachal Pradesh have a rich knowledge of forest-based natural resources and consumption of wild edible plants is still an integral part of their socio-cultural life. Findings of this documentation study can be used as an ethnopharmacological basis for selecting plants for future phytochemical and pharmaceutical studies.

Minor mergers and their impact on the kinematics of old and young stellar populations in disk galaxies

By means of N-body simulations we investigate the impact of minor mergers on the angular momentum and dynamical properties of the merger remnant. Our simulations cover a range of initial orbital characteristics and gas-to-stellar mass fractions (from 0 to 20%), and include star formation and supernova feedback. We confirm and extend previous results by showing that the specific angular momentum of the stellar component always decreases independently of the orbital parameters or morphology of the satellite, and that the decrease in the rotation velocity of the primary galaxy is accompanied by a change in the anisotropy of the orbits. However, the decrease affects only the old stellar population, and not the new population formed from gas during the merging process. This means that the merging process induces an increasing difference in the rotational support of the old and young stellar components, with the old one lagging with respect to the new. Even if our models are not intended specifically to reproduce the Milky Way and its accretion history, we find that, under certain conditions, the modeled rotational lag found is compatible with that observed in the Milky Way disk, thus indicating that minor mergers can be a viable way to produce it. The lag can increase with the vertical distance from the disk midplane, but only if the satellite is accreted along a direct orbit, and in all cases the main contribution to the lag comes from stars originally in the primary disk rather than from stars in the satellite galaxy. We also discuss the possibility of creating counter-rotating stars in the remnant disk, their fraction as a function of the vertical distance from the galaxy midplane, and the cumulative effect of multiple mergers on their creation.

Predatory Fish Select for Coordinated Collective Motion in Virtual Prey

Movement in animal groups is highly varied and ranges from seemingly disordered motion in swarms to coordinated aligned motion in flocks and schools. These social interactions are often thought to reduce risk from predators, despite a lack of direct evidence. We investigated risk-related selection for collective motion by allowing real predators ( bluegill sunfish) to hunt mobile virtual prey. By fusing simulated and real animal behavior, we isolated predator effects while controlling for confounding factors. Prey with a tendency to be attracted toward, and to align direction of travel with, near neighbors tended to form mobile coordinated groups and were rarely attacked. These results demonstrate that collective motion could evolve as a response to predation, without prey being able to detect and respond to predators.

Fish inspired biomimetic ionic polymer metal composite pectoral fins using labriform propulsion

Ionic polymer metal composites (IPMC) are a new class of smart materials that have attractive characteristics such as muscle like softness, low voltage and power consumption, and good performance in aqueous environments. Thus, IPMC’s provide promising application for biomimetic fish like propulsion systems. In this paper, we design and analyze IPMC underwater propulsor inspired from swimming of Labriform fishes. Different fish species in nature are source of inspiration for different biomimetic flapping IPMC fin design. Here, three fish species with high performance flapping pectoral fin locomotion is chosen and performance analysis of each fin design is done to discover the better configurations for engineering applications. In order to describe the behavior of an active IPMC fin actuator in water, a complex hydrodynamic function is used and structural model of the IPMC fin is obtained by modifying the classical dynamic equation for a slender beam. A quasi-steady blade element model that accounts for unsteady phenomena such as added mass effects, dynamic stall, and the cumulative Wagner effect is used to estimate the hydrodynamic performance of the flapping rectangular shape fin. Dynamic characteristics of IPMC actuated flapping fins having the same size as the actual fins of three different fish species, Gomphosus varius, Scarus frenatus and Sthethojulis trilineata, are analyzed with numerical simulations. Finally, a comparative study is performed to analyze the performance of three different biomimetic IPMC flapping pectoral fins.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Synconset Waves and Chains: Spiking Onsets in Synchronous Populations Predict and Are Predicted by Network Structure

Synfire waves are propagating spike packets in synfire chains, which are feedforward chains embedded in random networks. Although synfire waves have proved to be effective quantification for network activity with clear relations to network structure, their utilities are largely limited to feedforward networks with low background activity. To overcome these shortcomings, we describe a novel generalisation of synfire waves, and define `synconset wave' as a cascade of first spikes within a synchronisation event. Synconset waves would occur in `synconset chains', which are feedforward chains embedded in possibly heavily recurrent networks with heavy background activity. We probed the utility of synconset waves using simulation of single compartment neuron network models with biophysically realistic conductances, and demonstrated that the spread of synconset waves directly follows from the network connectivity matrix and is modulated by top-down inputs and the resultant oscillations. Such synconset profiles lend intuitive insights into network organisation in terms of connection probabilities between various network regions rather than an adjacency matrix. To test this intuition, we develop a Bayesian likelihood function that quantifies the probability that an observed synfire wave was caused by a given network. Further, we demonstrate it's utility in the inverse problem of identifying the network that caused a given synfire wave. This method was effective even in highly subsampled networks where only a small subset of neurons were accessible, thus showing it's utility in experimental estimation of connectomes in real neuronal-networks. Together, we propose synconset chains/waves as an effective framework for understanding the impact of network structure on function, and as a step towards developing physiology-driven network identification methods. Finally, as synconset chains extend the utilities of synfire chains to arbitrary networks, we suggest utilities of our framework to several aspects of network physiology including cell assemblies, population codes, and oscillatory synchrony.

Modulation of redox regulatory molecules and electron transport chain activity in muscle of air breathing fish Heteropneustes fossilis under air exposure stress

Responses of redox regulatory system to long-term survival (> 18 h) of the catfish Heteropneustes fossilis in air are not yet understood. Lipid and protein oxidation level, oxidant (H2O2) generation, antioxidative status (levels of superoxide dismutase, catalase, glutathione peroxidase and reductase, ascorbic acid and non-protein sulfhydryl) and activities of respiratory complexes (I, II, III and IV) in mitochondria were investigated in muscle of H. fossilis under air exposure condition (0, 3, 6, 12 and 18 h at 25 A degrees C). The increased levels of both H2O2 and tissue oxidation were observed due to the decreased activities of antioxidant enzymes in muscle under water deprivation condition. However, ascorbic acid and non-protein thiol groups were the highest at 18 h air exposure time. A linear increase in complex II activity with air exposure time and an increase up to 12 h followed by a decrease in activity of complex I at 18 h were observed. Negative correlation was observed for complex III and V activity with exposure time. Critical time to modulate the above parameters was found to be 3 h air exposure. Dehydration induced oxidative stress due to modulation of electron transport chain and redox metabolizing enzymes in muscle of H. fossilis was clearly observed. Possible contribution of redox regulatory system in muscle tissue of the fish for long-term survival in air is elucidated. Results of the present study may be useful to understand the redox metabolism in muscle of fishes those are exposed to air in general and air breathing fishes in particular.

Fish distribution dynamics in the Aghanashini estuary of Uttara Kannada, west coast of India

Fish diversity (77 species) in the Aghanashini River estuary of the Indian west coast is linked to variable salinity conditions and zones I, II and III for high, medium and low salinity respectively. Zone I, the junction between Arabian Sea and the estuary, had all species in yearly succession due to freshwater conditions in monsoon to high salinity in pre-monsoon. The medium (zone II) and low (zone III) salinity mid and upstream portions had maximum of 67 and 39 fish species respectively. Maintenance of natural salinity regimes in estuary, among other ecological factors, is critical for its fish diversity.