Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Excellent field emission from semialigned carbon nanofibers grown on cylindrical copper surface

We report the field emission from carbon nanofibers (CNFs) grown directly on cylindrical copper by a simple pyrolysis technique. The turn-on field is 0.17 V/µm and the emission current density is 0.9 mA/cm2 at 0.35 V/µm. The emission current is stable at a field of 0.35 V/µm and 6.5×10−6 Torr. The excellent field emission behavior is attributed to the sp2 phase in CNFs and the stable emission is due to the direct growth. The direct growth on cylindrical cathode is advantageous for field emission. ©2009 American Institute of Physics.

Estimating daily methane production in individual cattle with irregular feed intake patterns from short-term methane emission measurements

Spot measurements of methane emission rate (n = 18 700) by 24 Angus steers fed mixed rations from GrowSafe feeders were made over 3- to 6-min periods by a GreenFeed emission monitoring (GEM) unit. The data were analysed to estimate daily methane production (DMP; g/day) and derived methane yield (MY; g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)). A one-compartment dose model of spot emission rate v. time since the preceding meal was compared with the models of Wood (1967) and Dijkstra et al. (1997) and the average of spot measures. Fitted values for DMP were calculated from the area under the curves. Two methods of relating methane and feed intakes were then studied: the classical calculation of MY as DMP/DMI (kg/day); and a novel method of estimating DMP from time and size of preceding meals using either the data for only the two meals preceding a spot measurement, or all meals for 3 days prior. Two approaches were also used to estimate DMP from spot measurements: fitting of splines on a 'per-animal per-day' basis and an alternate approach of modelling DMP after each feed event by least squares (using Solver), summing (for each animal) the contributions from each feed event by best-fitting a one-compartment model. Time since the preceding meal was of limited value in estimating DMP. Even when the meal sizes and time intervals between a spot measurement and all feeding events in the previous 72 h were assessed, only 16.9% of the variance in spot emission rate measured by GEM was explained by this feeding information. While using the preceding meal alone gave a biased (underestimate) of DMP, allowing for a longer feed history removed this bias. A power analysis taking into account the sources of variation in DMP indicated that to obtain an estimate of DMP with a 95% confidence interval within 5% of the observed 64 days mean of spot measures would require 40 animals measured over 45 days (two spot measurements per day) or 30 animals measured over 55 days. These numbers suggest that spot measurements could be made in association with feed efficiency tests made over 70 days. Spot measurements of enteric emissions can be used to define DMP but the number of animals and samples are larger than are needed when day-long measures are made.

Vibration-rotation pattern in acetylene. II. Introduction of Coriolis coupling in the global model and analysis of emission spectra of hot acetylene around 3 mu m

A high temperature source has been developed and coupled to a high resolution Fourier transform spectrometer to record emission spectra of acetylene around 3 mu m up to 1455 K under Doppler limited resolution (0.015 cm(-1)). The nu(3)-ground state (GS) and nu(2)+nu(4)+nu(5)(Sigma(+)(u) and Delta(u))-GS bands and 76 related hot bands, counting e and f parities separately, are assigned using semiautomatic methods based on a global model to reproduce all related vibration-rotation states. Significantly higher J-values than previously reported are observed for 40 known substates while 37 new e or f vibrational substates, up to about 6000 cm(-1), are identified and characterized by vibration-rotation parameters. The 3 811 new or improved data resulting from the analysis are merged into the database presented by Robert et al. [Mol. Phys. 106, 2581 (2008)], now including 15 562 lines accessing vibrational states up to 8600 cm(-1). A global model, updated as compared to the one in the previous paper, allows all lines in the database to be simultaneously fitted, successfully. The updates are discussed taking into account, in particular, the systematic inclusion of Coriolis interaction.

The role of triplet states in the emission mechanism of polymer light-emitting diodes

The blue emission of polyfluorene (PF)-based light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is known to degrade due to a low-energy green emission, which hitherto has been attributed to oxidative defects. By studying the electroluminescence (EL) from ethyl-hexyl substituted PF LEDs in the presence of oxygen and in an inert atmosphere, and by using trace quantities of paramagnetic impurities (PM) in the polymer, we show that the triplet states play a major role in the low-energy emission mechanism. Our time-dependent many-body studies show a large cross-section for the triplet formation in the EL process in the presence of PM, primarily due to electron-hole recombination processes.

A Modified Dubins Method for Optimal Path Planning of a Miniature Air Vehicle Converging to a Straight Line Path

This paper presents a Dubins model based strategy to determine the optimal path of a Miniature Air Vehicle (MAV), constrained by a bounded turning rate, that would enable it to fly along a given straight line, starting from an arbitrary initial position and orientation. The method is then extended to meet the same objective in the presence of wind which has a magnitude comparable to the speed of the MAV. We use a modification of the Dubins' path method to obtain the complete optimal solution to this problem in all its generality.

Modified ILMI algorithm for practical PID/PD implementation on a Micro Air Vehicle

This paper extends the iterative linear matrix inequality algorithm (ILMI) for systems having non-ideal PI, PD and PID implementations. The new algorithm uses the practical implementation of the feedback blocksto form the equivalent static output feedback plant. The LMI based synthesis techniques are used in the algorithm to design a multi-loop, multi-objective fixed structure control. The benefits of such a control design technique are brought out by applying it to the lateral stabilizing and tracking feedback control problem of a 30cm wingspan micro air vehicle.

CO2-laser induced X-ray emission from high density gaseous targets

A theory for the emission of X-rays from a high density gaseous plasma interacting with CO2 laser is given. It predicts a sharp increase in the X-ray intensity for densities close to the critical.

Determination of optimal trajectory under design constraints for a satellite launch vehicle

An optimal pitch steering programme of a solid-fuel satellite launch vehicle to maximize either (1) the injection velocity at a given altitude, or (2) the size of circular orbit, for a given payload is presented. The two-dimensional model includes the rotation of atmosphere with the Earth, the vehicle's lift and drag, variation of thrust with time and altitude, inverse-square gravitational field, and the specified initial vertical take-off. The inequality constraints on the aerodynamic load, control force, and turning rates are also imposed. Using the properties of the central force motion the terminal constraint conditions at coast apogee are transferred to the penultimate stage burnout. Such a transformation converts a time-free problem into a time-fixed one, reduces the number of terminal constraints, improves accuracy, besides demanding less computer memory and time. The adjoint equations are developed in a compact matrix form. The problem is solved on an IBM 360/44 computer using a steepest ascent algorithm. An illustrative analysis of a typical launch vehicle establishes the speed of convergence, and accuracy and applicability of the algorithm.

Radio frequency emission in electron beam-plasma and beam-beam interaction

A linear excitation of electromagnetic modes at frequencies (n + ı89 in a plasma through which two electron beams are contra-streaming along the magnetic field is investigated. This may be a source of the observed {cote emissions at auroral latitudes.

Theory of CO2-laser induced x-ray emission from high density gaseous targets

Abstract is not available.

Diffusion of localized optical excitations and trap emission in ruby

Using the critical percolation conductance method the energy-dependent diffusion coefficient associated with thermally assisted transfer of the R1 line excitation between single Cr3+ ions with strain-induced randomness has been calculated in the 4A2 to E(2E) transition energies. For localized states sufficiently far away from the mobility edge the energy transfer is dominated by dipolar interactions, while very close to the mobility edge it is determined by short-range exchange interactions. Using the above energy-dependent diffusion coefficient a macroscopic diffusion equation is solved for the rate of light emission by Cr3+ ion-pair traps to which single-ion excitations are transferred. The dipolar mechanism leads to good agreement with recent measurements of the pair emission rate by Koo et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett., vol.35, p.1669 (1975)) right up to the mobility edge.

Acoustic emission source location and damage detection in a metallic structure using a graph-theory-based geodesic pproach

A geodesic-based approach using Lamb waves is proposed to locate the acoustic emission (AE) source and damage in an isotropic metallic structure. In the case of the AE (passive) technique, the elastic waves take the shortest path from the source to the sensor array distributed in the structure. The geodesics are computed on the meshed surface of the structure using graph theory based on Dijkstra's algorithm. By propagating the waves in reverse virtually from these sensors along the geodesic path and by locating the first intersection point of these waves, one can get the AE source location. The same approach is extended for detection of damage in a structure. The wave response matrix of the given sensor configuration for the healthy and the damaged structure is obtained experimentally. The healthy and damage response matrix is compared and their difference gives the information about the reflection of waves from the damage. These waves are backpropagated from the sensors and the above method is used to locate the damage by finding the point where intersection of geodesics occurs. In this work, the geodesic approach is shown to be suitable to obtain a practicable source location solution in a more general set-up on any arbitrary surface containing finite discontinuities. Experiments were conducted on aluminum specimens of simple and complex geometry to validate this new method.

Acoustic emission source location in composite structure by Voronoi construction using geodesic curve evolution

Conventional analytical/numerical methods employing triangulation technique are suitable for locating acoustic emission (AE) source in a planar structure without structural discontinuities. But these methods cannot be extended to structures with complicated geometry, and, also, the problem gets compounded if the material of the structure is anisotropic warranting complex analytical velocity models. A geodesic approach using Voronoi construction is proposed in this work to locate the AE source in a composite structure. The approach is based on the fact that the wave takes minimum energy path to travel from the source to any other point in the connected domain. The geodesics are computed on the meshed surface of the structure using graph theory based on Dijkstra's algorithm. By propagating the waves in reverse virtually from these sensors along the geodesic path and by locating the first intersection point of these waves, one can get the AE source location. In this work, the geodesic approach is shown more suitable for a practicable source location solution in a composite structure with arbitrary surface containing finite discontinuities. Experiments have been conducted on composite plate specimens of simple and complex geometry to validate this method.