Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

A notion of subgame perfect nash equilibrium under knightian uncertainty

We define a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium under Knightian uncertainty for two players, by means of a recursive backward induction procedure. We prove an extension of the Zermelo-von Neumann-Kuhn Theorem for games of perfect information, i. e., that the recursive procedure generates a Nash equilibrium under uncertainty (Dow and Werlang(1994)) of the whole game. We apply the notion for two well known games: the chain store and the centipede. On the one hand, we show that subgame perfection under Knightian uncertainty explains the chain store paradox in a one shot version. On the other hand, we show that subgame perfection under uncertainty does not account for the leaving behavior observed in the centipede game. This is in contrast to Dow, Orioli and Werlang(1996) where we explain by means of Nash equilibria under uncertainty (but not subgame perfect) the experiments of McKelvey and Palfrey(1992). Finally, we show that there may be nontrivial subgame perfect equilibria under uncertainty in more complex extensive form games, as in the case of the finitely repeated prisoner's dilemma, which accounts for cooperation in early stages of the game .

Gestão de capital de giro na internacionalização das empresa : uma análise comparativa entre empresas locais e multinacionais

O objetivo desta pesquisa é testar empiricamente se a gestão de capital de giro adotada pelas empresas multinacionais em outros países se altera na internacionalização em países complexos como o Brasil. Baseado nas respostas a um questionário obtido de uma amostra de 182 empresas do setor eletroeletrônico, elétrico, e de máquinas e equipamentos do Brasil, testes foram conduzidos para encontrar correlação na decisão de uso de cessão de direitos creditórios com a distância psíquica e o tempo de experiência dessas empresas no Brasil. Resultados apontam a maior propensão no uso de cessão de direitos creditórios como ferramenta alternativa de financiamento de curto prazo pelas empresas multinacionais sediadas em países mais distantes psiquicamente e com menor tempo de experiência no Brasil. Estudos sobre finanças internacionais indicam que uma maior distância psíquica das empresas multinacionais aumenta a aversão a incertezas e riscos, e, logo, a necessidade de manutenção de maiores níveis de caixa. Dependendo do tempo de experiência das empresas no mercado estrangeiro, a distância psíquica pode ser minimizada por meio de um processo de aprendizagem organizacional.

Serotonergic neurons in the median raphe nucleus regulate inhibitory avoidance but not escape behavior in the rat elevated T-maze test of anxiety

Rationale: A wealth of evidence supports the involvement of the serotonergic neurons of the median raphe nucleus (MRN) in anxiety. However, it is presently unclear whether serotonergic pathways arising from this nucleus play distinguishing regulatory roles in defensive behaviors that have been associated with specific subtypes of anxiety disorders. Objectives: To evaluate the role of the MRN serotonergic neurons in the regulation of two defensive behaviors, inhibitory avoidance and escape, which have been related, respectively, to generalized anxiety and panic disorders. Methods: Male Wistar rats were submitted to the elevated T-maze test of anxiety after intra-MRN administration of drugs that either non-selectively or selectively change the activity of the serotonergic neurons. Results: Intra-MRN injection of FG 7142 (0.04 and 0.08 nmol) and kainic acid (0.03 and 0.06 nmol), drugs that non-selectively stimulate the MRN serotonergic neurons, facilitated inhibitory avoidance acquisition, but impaired escape performance. Microinjection of muscimol (0.11 and 0.22 nmol), a compound that non-selectively inhibits the activity of the MRN serotonergic neurons, impaired inhibitory avoidance and facilitated escape performance. Both kainic acid and muscimol also changed rat locomotion in the open-field test. Intra-MRN injection of 8-OH-DPAT (0.6-15 nmol) and WAY-100635 (0.18-0.74 nmol), respectively an agonist and an antagonist of somatodendritic 5-HT1A receptors located on serotonergic neurons of the MRN, only affected inhibitory avoidance-while the former inhibited the acquisition of this behavior, the latter facilitated it. Conclusion: MRN serotonergic neurons seem to be selectively involved in the regulation of inhibitory avoidance in the elevated T-maze. This result supports the proposal that 5-HT pathways departing from this nucleus play an important role in anxiety processing, with implications for pathologies such as generalized anxiety disorder.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optic Flow Contribution to Locomotion Adjustments in Obstacle Avoidance

Locomotion generates a visual movement pattern characterized as optic flow. To explore how the locomotor adjustments are affected by this pattern, an experimental paradigm was developed to eliminate optic flow during obstacle avoidance. The aim was to investigate the contribution of optic flow in obstacle avoidance by using a stroboscopic lamp. Ten young adults walked on an 8m pathway and stepped over obstacles at two heights. Visual sampling was determined by a stroboscopic lamp (static and dynamic visual sampling). Three-dimensional kinematics data showed that the visual information about self-motion provided by the optic flow was crucial for estimating the distance from and the height of the obstacle. Participants presented conservative behavior for obstacle avoidance under experimental visual sampling conditions, which suggests that optic flow favors the coupling of vision to adaptive behavior for obstacle avoidance.

Mapping an uncertainty zone between interpolated types of a categorical variable

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

DERIVATION OF THE ENERGY-TIME UNCERTAINTY RELATION

A derivation from first principles is given of the energy-time uncertainty relation in quantum mechanics. A canonical transformation is made in classical mechanics to a new canonical momentum, which is energy E, and a new canonical coordinate T, which is called tempus, conjugate to the energy. Tempus T, the canonical coordinate conjugate to the energy, is conceptually different from the time t in which the system evolves. The Poisson bracket is a canonical invariant, so that energy and tempus satisfy the same Poisson bracket as do p and q. When the system is quantized, we find the energy-time uncertainty relation DELTAEDELTAT greater-than-or-equal-to HBAR/2. For a conservative system the average of the tempus operator T is the time t plus a constant. For a free particle and a particle acted on by a constant force, the tempus operators are constructed explicitly, and the energy-time uncertainty relation is explicitly verified.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

EFFECT OF FENCAMFAMINE ON AVOIDANCE PERFORMANCES OF RATS

The effects of fencamfamine (1.0 and 5.0 mg/kg, ip, single dose) on an inhibitory task were studied in rats (N = 15 per group). Post-training treatment with fencamfamine (1.0 mg/kg) significantly increased avoidance latency from 23 +/- 3 to 146 +/- 28 and 170 +/- 33 s for training day 1 and day 7, respectively, indicating an enhancement of retention. However, retention was significantly reduced with a high dose of fencamfamine (5.0 mg/kg). These results demonstrate that fencamfamine caused a reproducible dose-related increase and reduction in avoidance latency.

Contrasting effects of acute and chronic treatment with imipramine and fluoxetine on inhibitory avoidance and escape responses in mice exposed to the elevated T-maze

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in generation and demand

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand and generation. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The model presented results in an optimization problem that is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for known systems from the literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand and generation. ©2008 IEEE.