Justifying induction on modal μ-formulae

We define a rank function for formulae of the propositional modal μ-calculus such that the rank of a fixed point is strictly bigger than the rank of any of its finite approximations. A rank function of this kind is needed, for instance, to establish the collapse of the modal μ-hierarchy over transitive transition systems. We show that the range of the rank function is ωω. Further we establish that the rank is computable by primitive recursion, which gives us a uniform method to generate formulae of arbitrary rank below ωω.

Logical omniscience as infeasibility

Logical theories for representing knowledge are often plagued by the so-called Logical Omniscience Problem. The problem stems from the clash between the desire to model rational agents, which should be capable of simple logical inferences, and the fact that any logical inference, however complex, almost inevitably consists of inference steps that are simple enough. This contradiction points to the fruitlessness of trying to solve the Logical Omniscience Problem qualitatively if the rationality of agents is to be maintained. We provide a quantitative solution to the problem compatible with the two important facets of the reasoning agent: rationality and resource boundedness. More precisely, we provide a test for the logical omniscience problem in a given formal theory of knowledge. The quantitative measures we use are inspired by the complexity theory. We illustrate our framework with a number of examples ranging from the traditional implicit representation of knowledge in modal logic to the language of justification logic, which is capable of spelling out the internal inference process. We use these examples to divide representations of knowledge into logically omniscient and not logically omniscient, thus trying to determine how much information about the reasoning process needs to be present in a theory to avoid logical omniscience.

How need for cognition affects the processing of achievement-related information

The present article analyzed, how need for cognition (NFC) influences the formation of performance expectancies. When processing information, individuals with lower NFC often rely on salient information and shortcuts compared to individuals higher in NFC. We assume that these preferences of processing will also make individuals low in NFC more responsive to salient achievement-related cues because the processing of salient cues is cognitively less demanding than the processing of non-salient cues. Therefore, individuals lower in NFC should tend to draw wider ranging inferences from salient achievement-related information. In a sample of N = 197 secondary school students, achievement-related feedback (grade on an English examination) affected changes in expectancies in non-corresponding academic subjects (e.g., expectation of final grade in mathematics or history) when NFC was lower, whereas for students with higher NFC, changes in expectancies in non-corresponding academic subjects were not affected.

Symptom-based subtypes of depression and their psychosocial correlates: A person-centered approach focusing on the influence of sex

BACKGROUND: Reducing the complexity of major depressive disorder by symptom-based subtypes constitutes the basis of more specific treatments. To date, few studies have empirically derived symptom subtypes separated by sex, although the impact of sex has been widely accepted in depression research. METHODS: The community-based sample included 373 males and 443 females from the Zurich Program for Sustainable Development of Mental Health Services (ZInEP) manifesting depressive symptoms in the past 12 months. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was performed separately by sex to extract sex-related depression subtypes. The subtypes were characterized by psychosocial characteristics. RESULTS: Three similar subtypes were found in both sexes: a severe typical subtype (males: 22.8%; females: 35.7%), a severe atypical subtype (males: 17.4%; females: 22.6%), and a moderate subtype (males: 25.2%; females: 41.8%). In males, two additional subgroups were identified: a severe irritable/angry-rejection sensitive (IARS) subtype (30%) comprising the largest group, and a small psychomotor retarded subtype (4%). Males belonging to the severe typical subtype exhibited the lowest masculine gender role orientation, while females of the typical subtype showed more anxiety disorders. The severe atypical subtype was associated with eating disorders in both sexes and with alcohol/drug abuse/dependence in females. In contrast, alcohol/drug abuse/dependence was associated with the severe IARS subtype in males. LIMITATIONS:The study had a cross-sectional design, allowing for no causal inferences. CONCLUSIONS:This study contributes to a better understanding of sex-related depression subtypes, which can be well distinguished on the basis of symptom profiles. This provides the base for future research investigating the etiopathogenesis and effective treatment of the heterogeneous depression disorder.

The ancestry of Tibetan

The Tibeto-Burman linguistic phylum was identified in 1823. However, the term “Tibeto-Burman” was later used with two different mean- ings, one by scholars following Klaproth’s polyphyletic framework and another by scholars operating within the Indo-Chinese paradigm. Yet the enduring failure of Sino-Tibetanists to produce any evidence for the Indo-Chinese phylogenetic model compels us to conclude that there is no such language family as Sino-Tibetan. Instead, Tibetan forms part of the Trans-Himalayan linguistic phylum, or Tibeto-Burman in Klaproth’s sense. Robert Shafer coined the terms “Bodic” and “Bodish” for subgroups including Tibetan and languages with varying degrees of linguistic propin- quity to Tibetan, and Nicolas Tournadre has also recently coined the term “Tibetic.” What are Tibetic, Bodish, and Bodic? Which languages are the closest relatives of Tibetan? What do we know about the structure of the Trans-Himalayan linguistic phylum as a whole? Based on the phylogeny of the language family, which inferences can be made about the ethnolinguis- tic prehistory of the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions?

Great expectations: what can fMRI research tell us about psychological phenomena?

Expectations for what functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can offer psychophysiology vary greatly. Overreaching enthusiasm such as the idea that fMRI can reveal lies and political attitudes are as common as the opinion that fMRI, in its current form, is useless for the advancement of psychological theories. Errors in the inferences being drawn from fMRI data may be contributing to each of these extreme positions, so the present paper addresses these several common inferential errors and describes some of the potential of fMRI for psychophysiological theory and research.

Effect of low count sums on quantitative environmental reconstructions: an example using subfossil chironomids

The concentrations of chironomid remains in lake sediments are very variable and, therefore, chironomid stratigraphies often include samples with a low number of counts. Thus, the effect of low count sums on reconstructed temperatures is an important issue when applying chironomid‐temperature inference models. Using an existing data set, we simulated low count sums by randomly picking subsets of head capsules from surface‐sediment samples with a high number of specimens. Subsequently, a chironomid‐temperature inference model was used to assess how the inferred temperatures are affected by low counts. The simulations indicate that the variability of inferred temperatures increases progressively with decreasing count sums. At counts below 50 specimens, a further reduction in count sum can cause a disproportionate increase in the variation of inferred temperatures, whereas at higher count sums the inferences are more stable. Furthermore, low count samples may consistently infer too low or too high temperatures and, therefore, produce a systematic error in a reconstruction. Smoothing reconstructed temperatures downcore is proposed as a possible way to compensate for the high variability due to low count sums. By combining adjacent samples in a stratigraphy, to produce samples of a more reliable size, it is possible to assess if low counts cause a systematic error in inferred temperatures.

Species interactions and random dispersal rather than habitat filtering drive community assembly during early plant succession

Theory on plant succession predicts a temporal increase in the complexity of spatial community structure and of competitive interactions: initially random occurrences of early colonising species shift towards spatially and competitively structured plant associations in later successional stages. Here we use long-term data on early plant succession in a German post mining area to disentangle the importance of random colonisation, habitat filtering, and competition on the temporal and spatial development of plant community structure. We used species co-occurrence analysis and a recently developed method for assessing competitive strength and hierarchies (transitive versus intransitive competitive orders) in multispecies communities. We found that species turnover decreased through time within interaction neighbourhoods, but increased through time outside interaction neighbourhoods. Successional change did not lead to modular community structure. After accounting for species richness effects, the strength of competitive interactions and the proportion of transitive competitive hierarchies increased through time. Although effects of habitat filtering were weak, random colonization and subsequent competitive interactions had strong effects on community structure. Because competitive strength and transitivity were poorly correlated with soil characteristics, there was little evidence for context dependent competitive strength associated with intransitive competitive hierarchies.

Statistical testing against baseline was common in dental research

OBJECTIVES To assess the presence of within-group comparisons with baseline in a subset of leading dental journals and to explore possible associations with a range of study characteristics including journal and study design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Thirty consecutive issues of five leading dental journals were electronically searched. The conduct and reporting of statistical analysis in respect of comparisons against baseline or otherwise along with the manner of interpretation of the results were assessed. Descriptive statistics were obtained, and chi-square test and Fisher's exact were undertaken to test the association between trial characteristics and overall study interpretation. RESULTS A total of 184 studies were included with the highest proportion published in Journal of Endodontics (n = 84, 46%) and most involving a single center (n = 157, 85%). Overall, 43 studies (23%) presented interpretation of their outcomes based solely on comparisons against baseline. Inappropriate use of baseline testing was found to be less likely in interventional studies (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Use of comparisons with baseline appears to be common among both observational and interventional research studies in dentistry. Enhanced conduct and reporting of statistical tests are required to ensure that inferences from research studies are appropriate and informative.

Structural brain correlates of defective gesture performance in schizophrenia

INTRODUCTION The neural correlates of impaired performance of gestures are currently unclear. Lesion studies showed variable involvement of the ventro-dorsal stream particularly left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) in gesture performance on command. However, findings cannot be easily generalized as lesions may be biased by the architecture of vascular supply and involve brain areas beyond the critical region. The neuropsychiatric syndrome of schizophrenia shares apraxic-like errors and altered brain structure without macroanatomic lesions. Schizophrenia may therefore qualify as a model disorder to test neural correlates of gesture impairments. METHODS We included 45 schizophrenia patients and 44 healthy controls in the study to investigate the structural brain correlates of defective gesturing in schizophrenia using voxel based morphometry. Gestures were tested in two domains: meaningful gestures (transitive and intransitive) on verbal command and imitation of meaningless gestures. Cut-off scores were used to separate patients with deficits, patients without deficits and controls. Group differences in gray matter (GM) volume were explored in an ANCOVA. RESULTS Patients performed poorer than controls in each gesture category (p < .001). Patients with deficits in producing meaningful gestures on command had reduced GM predominantly in left IFG, with additional involvement of right insula and anterior cingulate cortex. Patients with deficits differed from patients without deficits in right insula, inferior parietal lobe (IPL) and superior temporal gyrus. CONCLUSIONS Impaired performance of meaningful gestures on command was linked to volume loss predominantly in the praxis network in schizophrenia. Thus, the behavioral similarities between apraxia and schizophrenia are paralleled by structural alterations. However, few associations between behavioral impairment and structural brain alterations appear specific to schizophrenia.

An intercontinental comparison of chironomid palaeotemperature inference models: Europe vs North America

Chironomid-temperature inference models based on North American, European and combined surface sediment training sets were compared to assess the overall reliability of their predictions. Between 67 and 76 of the major chironomid taxa in each data set showed a unimodal response to July temperature, whereas between 5 and 22 of the common taxa showed a sigmoidal response. July temperature optima were highly correlated among the training sets, but the correlations for other taxon parameters such as tolerances and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS) regression coefficients were much weaker. PLS, weighted averaging, WA-PLS, and the Modern Analogue Technique, all provided useful and reliable temperature inferences. Although jack-knifed error statistics suggested that two-component WA-PLS models had the highest predictive power, intercontinental tests suggested that other inference models performed better. The various models were able to provide good July temperature inferences, even where neither good nor close modern analogues for the fossil chironomid assemblages existed. When the models were applied to fossil Lateglacial assemblages from North America and Europe, the inferred rates and magnitude of July temperature changes varied among models. All models, however, revealed similar patterns of Lateglacial temperature change. Depending on the model used, the inferred Younger Dryas July temperature decrease ranged between 2.5 and 6°C.

Technical Efficiency and Stock Market Reaction to Horizontal Mergers

This study examines the relationship between stock market reaction to horizontal merger announcements and technical efficiency levels of the participating firms. The analysis is based on data pertaining to eighty mergers between firms in the U.S. manufacturing industry during the 1990s. We employ Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure technical efficiency, which capture the firms. competence to produce the maximum output given certain productive resources. Abnormal returns related to the merger announcements provide the investor.s re-evaluation on the future performance of the participating firms. In order to avoid the problem of nonnormality, heteroskedasticity in the regression analysis, bootstrap method is employed for estimations and inferences. We found that there is a significant relationship between technical efficiency and market response. The market apparently welcomes the merger as an arrangement to improve resource utilizations.

Family Court Judges' Training, Background, and Child Development Knowledge: Associations with Child Custody Decision Making

Family court judges are often asked to make inferences about - or directly interview children to ascertain - children's custody preferences and their maturity to express such preferences. These estimates of children's developmental maturity are important to the judges' considerations of children's "best interests" in custody cases. The research literature describing family court judges' background, education, training, and knowledge about child development is scant. With appropriate child development knowledge, judges should be better able to identify the developmental stages at which children have the cognitive and social capabilities to communicate directly their placement wishes or concerns. The current study is the first to examine judges' estimates of - and actual tests of - their child development knowledge, their training/education, and their application of this knowledge to their decisions to involve children as participants in contested custody cases.

The Relationship of Student Demographics to 10th Grade MCAS Test Anxiety

The intensification of consequential testing situations is associated with an increase in anxiety among American students (Casbarro, 2005). Test anxiety can have negative effects on student test performance (Everson, Millsap, & Rodriguez, 1991). If test anxiety has the potential to decrease students’ test scores, it becomes a factor that can threaten the validity of any inferences drawn between test scores and student progress (Cizek & Burg, 2006). There are several factors that relate closely to test anxiety (Cizek & Burg, 2006). Variables of key influence include gender, socioeconomic status, and teacher-manifested anxiety (Hembree, 1988). Another influence upon test anxiety is students’ participation in academic support programs to prepare them for exit examinations. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between 10th grade high school student gender, socioeconomic status, perceived teacher anxiety, and student preparedness with levels of the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System (MCAS) test anxiety. It appears that few studies have examined levels of high school test anxiety in regards to this specific high-stakes MCAS exit exam required for high school graduation. A two-phase sequential mixed-methods research design was used to survey (N=156) 10th grade students represented by a sampling of (n=80) students with low socioeconomic status and (n=76) students with high socioeconomic status regarding their levels of test anxiety in relation to upcoming MCAS testing. A multiple regression analysis was used to measure the relationship between the predictor variables (gender, socioeconomic status, perceived teacher anxiety, and student preparedness) with the criterion variable of student test anxiety using the Test Anxiety Inventory (TAI). Personal interviews with (n=20) volunteer students provided rich explanations of students’ academic self-efficacy, their perceptions of their performance on the upcoming MCAS exam, and their use of strategies to reduce their levels of test anxiety. Personal interviews with (n=12) volunteer school administrators and teachers provided descriptions of their perceptions of how test anxiety affected their students’ performance. A major quantitative finding of this study was that the variables of student socioeconomic status and student ratings of teacher anxiety accounted for the variance in students’ levels of surveyed test anxiety (R2 = .06, p = .033, small to medium effect size). These results indicate that different student populations vary in their readiness skills to successfully participate in consequential testing situations. Consequently, high-test anxious students would require emotional preparation as well as academic preparation when confronting high-stakes testing. The results have the potential to re-shape the format of schools’ MCAS test preparation efforts.

Airliner cabin air quality exposure assessment

The airliner cabin environment and its effects on occupant health have not been fully characterized. This dissertation is: (1) A review of airliner environmental control systems (ECSs) that modulate the ventilation, temperature, relative humidity (RH), and barometric pressure (PB) of the cabin environment---variables related to occupant comfort and health. (2) A review and assessment of the methods and findings of key cabin air quality (CAQ) investigations. Several significant deficiencies impede the drawing of inferences about CAQ, e.g., lack of detail about investigative methods, differences in methods between investigations, limited assessment of CAQ variables, small sample sizes, and technological deficiencies of data collection. (3) A comprehensive evaluation of the methods used in the subsequent NIOSH-FAA Airliner CAQ Exposure Assessment Feasibility Study (STUDY) in which this author participated. A number of problems were identified which limit the usefulness of the data. (4) An analysis of the reliable 10-flight STUDY data. Univariate and multivariate methods applied to CO2 (a surrogate for air contaminants), temperature, RH, and PB, in association with percent passenger load, ventilation system, flight duration, airliner body type, and measurement location within the cabin, revealed neither the measured values nor their variability exceeded established health-based exposure limits. Regression analyses suggest CO2, temperature, and RH were affected by percent passenger load. In-flight measurements of CO2 and RH were relatively independent of ventilation system type or flight duration. Cabin temperature was associated with percent passenger load, ventilation system type, and flight duration. (5) A synthesis of the implications of the airliner ECS and cabin O2 environment on occupant health. A model was developed to predict consequences of the airliner cabin pressure altitude 8,000 ft limit and resulting model-estimated PO2 on cardiopulmonary status. Based on the PB, altitude, and environmental data derived from the 10 STUDY flights, the predicted PaO2 of adults with COPD, or elderly adults with or without COPD, breathing ambient cabin air could be < 55 mm Hg (SaO2 < 88%). Reduction in cabin PB found in the STUDY flights could aggravate various medical conditions and require the use of in-flight supplemental O2. ^