Uncertainty on a Bertrand duopoly with product differentiation

The conclusions of the Bertrand model of competition are substantially altered by the presence of either differentiated goods or asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. In this paper, we consider a Bertrand competition, with differentiated goods. Furthermore, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We do ex-ante and ex-post analyses of firms’ profits and market prices. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Cost allocation model for distribution networks considering high penetration of distributed energy resources

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitive environment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The network cost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribution networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop a fairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are using the network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, and congestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). The proposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in an economic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen's and Bialek's tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the network. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distribution network of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Fiscal decentralisation and economic theory

There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.

Os Modos de Entrada em Mercados Internacionais das Empresas da Região do Tâmega e Sousa

Dissertação de Mestrado em Gestão e Internacionalização de Empresas

Aircraft Engines Maintenance Costs and Reliability: An Appraisal of the Decision Process to Remove an Engine for a Shop Visit Aiming at Minimum Maintenance Unit Cost

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação.

Multipath inter-domain policy routing

Dissertação submetida para a obtenção do grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

A Pilot Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Treatments in Newly Diagnosed High-Grade Gliomas: The Example of 5-Aminolevulinic Acid Compared With White-Light Surgery

BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive, incurable tumors characterized by extensive diffuse invasion of the normal brain parenchyma. Novel therapies at best prolong survival; their costs are formidable and benefit is marginal. Economic restrictions thus require knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of treatments. Here, we show the cost-effectiveness of enhanced resections in malignant glioma surgery using a well-characterized tool for intraoperative tumor visualization, 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided neurosurgery compared with white-light surgery in adult patients with newly diagnosed high-grade glioma, adopting the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. METHODS: We used a Markov model (cohort simulation). Transition probabilities were estimated with the use of data from 1 randomized clinical trial and 1 noninterventional prospective study. Utility values and resource use were obtained from published literature and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from official Portuguese reimbursement lists (2012 values). The health outcomes considered were quality-adjusted life-years, lifeyears, and progression-free life-years. Extensive 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are below €10 000 in all evaluated outcomes, being around €9100 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, €6700 per life-year gained, and €8800 per progression-free life-year gained. The probability of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery cost-effectiveness at a threshold of €20000 is 96.0% for quality-adjusted life-year, 99.6% for life-year, and 98.8% for progression-free life-year. CONCLUSION: 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery appears to be cost-effective in newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas compared with white-light surgery. This example demonstrates cost-effectiveness analyses for malignant glioma surgery to be feasible on the basis of existing data.

Cost-Effectiveness of Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants for Atrial Fibrillation in Portugal

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES:Recently, three novel non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants received approval for reimbursement in Portugal for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). It is therefore important to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of these new oral anticoagulants in Portuguese AF patients. METHODS: A Markov model was used to analyze disease progression over a lifetime horizon. Relative efficacy data for stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), bleeding (intracranial, other major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding), myocardial infarction and treatment discontinuation were obtained by pairwise indirect comparisons between apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban using warfarin as a common comparator. Data on resource use were obtained from the database of diagnosis-related groups and an expert panel. Model outputs included life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), direct healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS:Apixaban provided the most life years gained and QALYs. The ICERs of apixaban compared to warfarin and dabigatran were €5529/QALY and €9163/QALY, respectively. Apixaban was dominant over rivaroxaban (greater health gains and lower costs). The results were robust over a wide range of inputs in sensitivity analyses. Apixaban had a 70% probability of being cost-effective (at a threshold of €20 000/QALY) compared to all the other therapeutic options. CONCLUSIONS:Apixaban is a cost-effective alternative to warfarin and dabigatran and is dominant over rivaroxaban in AF patients from the perspective of the Portuguese national healthcare system. These conclusions are based on indirect comparisons, but despite this limitation, the information is useful for healthcare decision-makers.

Web-assisted tobacco intervention in Portuguese : intentions to make behavioural changes and behavioural changes

ABSTRACT - The problem of how to support “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behaviour changes” (BC) in smoking cessation when there is a scarcity of resources is a pressing issue in public health terms. The present research focuses on the use of information and communications technologies and their role in smoking cessation. It is developed in Portugal after the ratification of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (on 8 November 2005). The prevalence of smokers over fifteen years of age within the population stood at 20.9% (30.9% for men and 11.8% for women). While the strategy of helping people to quit smoking has been emphasised at National Health Service (NHS) level, the uptake of cessation assistance has exceeded the capacity of the service. This induced the search of new theoretical and practical venues to offer alternative options to people willing to stop smoking. Among these, the National Health Plan (NHP) of Portugal (2004-2010), identifies the use of information technologies in smoking cessation. eHealth and the importance of health literacy as a means of empowering people to make behavioural changes is recurrently considered an option worth investigating. The overall objective of this research is to understand, in the Portuguese context, the use of the Internet to help people to stop smoking. Research questions consider factors that may contribute to “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behavioural changes” (BC) while using a Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP). Also consideration is given to the trade-off on the use of the Web as a tool for smoking cessation: can it reach a vast number of people for a small cost (efficiency) demonstrating to work in the domain of smoking cessation (efficacy)”? In addition to the introduction, there is a second chapter in which the use of tobacco is discussed as a public health menace. The health gains achieved by stopping smoking and the means of quitting are also examined, as is the use of the Internet in smoking cessation. Then, several research issues are introduced. These include background theory and the theoretical framework for the Sense of Coherence. The research model is also discussed. A presentation of the methods, materials and of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) follows. In chapter four the results of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) are presented. This study is divided into two sections. The first describes results related to quality control in relation to the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) and gives an overview of its users. Of these, 3,150 answered initial eligibility questions. In the end, 1,463 met all eligibility requirements, completed intake, decided on a day to quit smoking (Dday) and declared their “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) while a second targeted group of 650 did not decide on a Dday. With two quit attempts made before joining the platform, most of the participants had experienced past failures while wanting to stop. The smoking rate averaged 21 cigarettes per day. With a mean age of 35, of the participants 55% were males. Among several other considerations, gender and the Sense of Coherence (SOC) influenced the success of participants in their IBC and endeavour to set quit dates. The results of comparing males and females showed that, for current smokers, establishing a Dday was related to gender differences, not favouring males (OR=0.76, p<0.005). Belonging to higher Socio-economic strata (SES) was associated with the intention to consider IBC (when compared to lower SES condition) (OR=1.57, p<0.001) and higher number of school years (OR=0.70, p<0.005) favoured the decision to smoking cessation. Those who demonstrated higher confidence in their likelihood of success in stopping in the shortest time had a higher rate of setting a Dday (OR=0.51, p<0.001). There were differences between groups in IBC reflecting the high and low levels of the SOC score (OR=1.43, p=0.006), as those who considered setting a Dday had higher levels of SOC. After adjusting for all variables, stages of readiness to change and SOC were kept in the model. This is the first Arm of this research where the focus is a discussion of the system’s implications for the participants’ “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC). Moreover, a second section of this study (second Arm) offers input collected from 77 in-depth interviews with the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) users. Here, “Behaviour Change” (BC) and the usability of the platform are explored a year after IBC was declared. A percentage of 32.9% of self-reported, 12-month quitters in continuous abstinence from smoking from Dday to the 12-month follow- up point of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) has been assessed. Comparing the Sense of Coherence (SOC) scores of participants by their respective means, according to the two groups, there was a significant difference in these scores of non smokers (BC) (M=144,66, SD=22,52) and Sense of Coherence (SOC) of smokers (noBC) (M=131,51, SD=21,43) p=0.014. This WATIP strategy and its contents benefit from the strengthening of the smoker’s sense of coherence (SOC), so that the person’s progress towards a life without tobacco may be experienced as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. In this sample the sense of coherence (SOC) effect is moderate although it is associated with the day to quit smoking (Dday). Some of the limitations of this research have to do with self-selection bias, sample size (power) and self-reporting (no biochemical validation). The enrolment of participants was therefore not representative of the smoking population. It is not possible to verify the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) evaluation of external validity; consequently, the results obtained cannot be applied generalized. No participation bias is provided. Another limitation of this study is the associated limitations of interviews. Interviewees’ perception that fabricating answers could benefit them more than telling the simple truth in response to questions is a risk that is not evaluated (with no external validation like measuring participants’ carbon monoxide levels). What emerges in this analysis is the relevance of the process that leads to the establishment of the quit day (Dday) to stop using tobacco. In addition, technological issues, when tailoring is the focus, are key elements for scrutiny. The high number of dropouts of users of the web platform mandates future research that should concentrate on the matters of the user-centred design of portals. The focus on gains in health through patient-centred care needs more research, so that technology usability be considered within the context of best practices in smoking cessation.

Men’s purchase intention of shampoo: a model based on the theory of planned behavior and self-concept

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Environmental remediation project of Cunha Baixa mining area cost benefit analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics